NDS circa 2011: "Omar is dead" report

[BarakzaiAbdali]

Similar to the Paul is dead campaigners of the 1960s, it seems that NDS officials are smoking too much of that home grown hash again:

We all recall 2011 when the NDS was embarrassed after this reporting:
http://articles.latimes.com/2011/may...-omar-20110524

The death rumors about Omar appeared to emanate mostly from Afghanistan's main intelligence service, the National Directorate of Security. Its spokesman, Lutfullah Mashal, told reporters in Kabul that Omar had disappeared several days ago from Pakistan's Baluchistan province, the seat of the Taliban leadership council, known as the Quetta Shura, and had not been heard from since.

We all recall how upset the NDS was with The Wire's Uri Friedman when he did expose on that event in 2011:

http://www.thewire.com/global/2011/0...ar-dead/38023/

How did all this speculation get started in the first place? The original report (pictured above) appears to have come from Afghanistan's TOLOnews, which cited an anonymous NDS official as saying that Omar was shot dead a couple days ago in Pakistan as former Pakistani intelligence chief, Gen. Hamid Gul, was moving the Taliban leader from Quetta to North Waziristan...

So Mullah Omar is simply a man that will one day die - that much we can be sure of - how and when and why - only the Creator knows that information.

But if the source of that information is Afghan governance and the NDS... perhaps we should ask them to make up their minds... did he die in 2011 or 2013?

The interesting thing about all of this is that this was voiced by these officials right before the "peace talks."

[BarakzaiAbdali]

It is interesting that the NDS also chose to pursue this line of reasoning since it sort of doesn't hold water. The fiercest fighting season to date has been this one - with incursions now going northward.

If I were NDS, I would far prefer to keep the myth alive or better still to work on finding the man and removing him somehow because if Taliban have been this ferocious and tenacious after the proverbial "head" is cutoff for now 2 years after 2013- it would only go to prove that they have some sort of reactive heirarchy in place that easily responded to his death.

That in turn would be a bad sign for their efforts to stamp out the insurgency.

Oh well, I guess strategy was never the strong suit of these types.

[Insight]

I have lost count how many times NDS has said Mullah Omar died. Im predicting they will again release another death claim right before 2017.

[Kushan Prince]

I don't think he is dead.

[khushal]

It would be in the afghan gov interest to propagandize that he is alive and make it out that he supports the peace deal the afghan gov is pushing.

Whether he is alive or dead, the insurgency is bigger than him. How many peace deals have the TTP signed with paksitan and how many peacxe deals did the muj factions sign and how did those peace deals end up.

[Pakwatan]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f4cVVuSi2fI

So Mullah Omar and the Taliban were bad for putting the Northern Alliance and warlords like Dostum in check? What else could they have done at the time? They had no support from anyone.

You Afghan nationalists will probably hate me for this, but the only reason your country of Afghanistan is together today is because of the Taliban of the 90's and Mullah Omar.

Mullah Omar and all of the villager Pashtuns put in the work to save Afghanistan, and now all you farsi speaking half-breeds come and rule Kabul as If you maggots put in any work. Nobody or organization is viewed as a saint by all people, but they did in fact target criminals, and tried to restore law and order. Perhaps their methodology was wrong, but not their intention or niyaat.

I would love for senior Afghan members to prove me otherwise with facts, so that perhaps I can be educated too. But I am also a simple villager in Amrika from Pakistan. I don't feel like he did anything wrong.

[HalloIsBack]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f4cVVuSi2fI

So Mullah Omar and the Taliban were bad for putting the Northern Alliance and warlords like Dostum in check? What else could they have done at the time? They had no support from anyone.

You Afghan nationalists will probably hate me for this, but the only reason your country of Afghanistan is together today is because of the Taliban of the 90's and Mullah Omar.

Mullah Omar and all of the villager Pashtuns put in the work to save Afghanistan, and now all you farsi speaking half-breeds come and rule Kabul as If you maggots put in any work. Nobody or organization is viewed as a saint by all people, but they did in fact target criminals, and tried to restore law and order. Perhaps their methodology was wrong, but not their intention or niyaat.

I would love for senior Afghan members to prove me otherwise with facts, so that perhaps I can be educated too. But I am also a simple villager in Amrika from Pakistan. I don't feel like he did anything wrong.

wrong!
they are supported by pakistan!
and there lots of foreigners who come by plane to pakistan and with help of pak government then to afg

[Loy Afghanistan]

It would be in the afghan gov interest to propagandize that he is alive and make it out that he supports the peace deal the afghan gov is pushing.

Whether he is alive or dead, the insurgency is bigger than him. How many peace deals have the TTP signed with paksitan and how many peacxe deals did the muj factions sign and how did those peace deals end up.

I agree somewhat. If it can bring peace in Afghanistan and the rest of parts of Pashtun lands.

[BarakzaiAbdali]

Man enough to admit when I'm wrong:

http://www.cnn.com/2015/07/30/asia/a...mar/index.html

Looks like NDS has admittedly improved its intelligence gathering capabilities.

The only curious part was that Ghani thanked Omar for joining the peace process just the other day:
http://abcnews.go.com/International/...ry?id=32751650

Last week, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani thanked the reclusive Omar for endorsing the peace talks, which began earlier this month in Pakistan, where they were supervised by U.S. and Chinese representatives.

[Kushan Prince]

Man enough to admit when I'm wrong:

http://www.cnn.com/2015/07/30/asia/a...mar/index.html

Looks like NDS has admittedly improved its intelligence gathering capabilities.

The only curious part was that Ghani thanked Omar for joining the peace process just the other day:
http://abcnews.go.com/International/...ry?id=32751650

I also hate to admit that i am wrong as well, especially when i accused the NDS of being an American mouthpiece in another thread. I think Ghani purposely made up the story of the letter being sent by Omar to get the Taliban into immediate peace talks, kind of like how he accused of ISIS being in Afghanistan despite no reports by Dahesh themselves of being in the country to force the Taliban into consolidating with the Afghan government for peace talks.

[BarakzaiAbdali]

I also hate to admit that i am wrong as well, especially when i accused the NDS of being an American mouthpiece in another thread. I think Ghani purposely made up the story of the letter being sent by Omar to get the Taliban into immediate peace talks, kind of like how he accused of ISIS being in Afghanistan despite no reports by Dahesh themselves of being in the country.

Ghani genuinly did not know. The sequence seems to be that they got the news recently and are using it as leverage to marginalize the faction led by Mullah Omar's son and elevate the faction led by Mansour that wants to go into peace talks. Another break away faction leaked it about 2 weeks ago is doing the reverse - using it to diminish both of those factions but especially Mansoor's faction.

The NDS is using the information to attempt to cause disarray in the ranks of all groups and get them all to the bargaining table - actually not a dumb strategy but one that may not work based on the fighting season.

[Kushan Prince]

Ghani genuinly did not know. The sequence seems to be that they got the news recently and are using it as leverage to marginalize the faction led by Mullah Omar's son and elevate the faction led by Mansour that wants to go into peace talks. Another break away faction leaked it about 2 weeks ago is doing the reverse - using it to diminish both of those factions but especially Mansoor's faction.

The NDS is using the information to attempt to cause disarray in the ranks of all groups and get them all to the bargaining table - actually not a dumb strategy but one that may not work based on the fighting season.

I agree, i also believe this is what is happening. Have to say though, Ghani was very clever and sneaky here, a smart strategy that hopefully might work.

[randolph85]

Just going off all this new info I would guess that there are two factions within the Taliban. One being Mansoor's faction which is more under the Paki thumb/open to peace talks and who were well aware of Omar's death in 2013 and the more hardliner faction with no real active leader in the movement and who were unaware of Omar's death.

Mansoor has political support but its the boots on the ground which give the movement legitimacy. Talks were probably cancelled to reconcile this difference and to bring the Qatar office and the travelling salesman Talibs on the same page.


Then again, I am just going off of all the articles we have all read, just my take.

[khushal]

I agree somewhat. If it can bring peace in Afghanistan and the rest of parts of Pashtun lands.

Powersharing has never worked in afghanistan. The only way ppeace can be achieved is to have it afghan led with afghan foot soldiers(not foreign led with foreign foot soldiers) taking the country by force just like it did in the 90's. The afghan people are going to suffer the same brutal process thanks to the toramana and badlun types.

[khushal]

Just going off all this new info I would guess that there are two factions within the Taliban. One being Mansoor's faction which is more under the Paki thumb/open to peace talks and who were well aware of Omar's death in 2013 and the more hardliner faction with no real active leader in the movement and who were unaware of Omar's death.

Mansoor has political support but its the boots on the ground which give the movement legitimacy. Talks were probably cancelled to reconcile this difference and to bring the Qatar office and the travelling salesman Talibs on the same page.


Then again, I am just going off of all the articles we have all read, just my take.

According to reports, the Quetta Shura has broken into three factions. The third one being the one that reported Omar being killed by Mansoor hoping the two will fight each other so they could come out on top. It seems like the Qatar office is siding with Omar son since they made statements that they had no approved the peace talks.