Pakistan Is Winning the War in Afghanistan

[Army of Pakistan]

This Week at War: Pakistan Is Winning the War in Afghanistan

What the four-stars are reading -- a weekly column from Small Wars Journal.

BY ROBERT HAD**** | JULY 30, 2010

Pakistan's Game

Of all the players in the Afghan game, Pakistan is running up the highest score. For several decades, Pakistan's policy toward Afghanistan has remained largely unchanged, regardless of who was running the country. That policy is to support Afghanistan's Pashtuns in their seemingly genetic resistance to outside control (outside in this case extends to any government located in Kabul). By supporting Pashtun autonomy, Pakistan establishes for itself a security buffer zone on its northwest frontier, which comes with a friendly auxiliary army -- the Afghan Taliban -- as a bonus.

For nearly nine years, U.S. officials have pleaded with Pakistan to suspend support for the Afghan Taliban and allow Afghanistan to unite under a central government. Pakistani officials have provided a variety of verbal responses to these entreaties but have not changed their policies toward the Afghan Taliban, whose military capability inside Afghanistan only seems to grow.

The United States cannot achieve its goals in Afghanistan while the Afghan Taliban's sanctuaries in Pakistan remain open. The Pakistani government refuses to close or even isolate those sanctuaries. Yet the massive U.S. foreign-assistance pipeline to Pakistan remains open. Why?
U.S. policymakers have seemingly concluded that they have more options and less risk by engaging Pakistan. They tried isolating Pakistan and found that course was neither wise nor sustainable. As a result, the Washington has opted to shower Pakistan with aid and hope that persistent persuasion will eventually result in greater Pakistani action against the Afghan Taliban.

The result has been a spectacular strategic success for Pakistan. Development aid from the United States has never been greater. The United States will deliver long-embargoed F-16 fighters to Pakistan and is providing other upgrades to Pakistan's armed forces. Along with this has come a de facto U.S. security guarantee against the perceived threat from India. Pakistan's diplomatic leverage over the United States has given it a free hand to work with China to upgrade its nuclear complex. Meanwhile, Pakistan's proxy forces in southeast Afghanistan are successfully defending the security buffer zone. Pakistan's dominant position has forced Afghan President Hamid Karzai to virtually sue for peace. This could result in an ethnic partition of Afghanistan that would secure Pakistan's main objective in the conflict.

With its winning position, Pakistan's current task is to arrange a stable end-state that avoids a backlash from the losers. Pakistan and the United States are in a largely zero-sum relationship over Afghanistan. Pakistan's leaders must fashion a settlement (however temporary) that allows the United States to save face, that maintains the U.S. aid pipeline, and that keeps the de facto security guarantee in place. U.S. officials should hope that Pakistan manages the endgame as well as it has managed the rest of the match.

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article...istan?page=0,0

[BLS_1919v2.0]

What a weird win that you are cheering, when Pashtunkhwa and Afghanistan is suffering. See here is the thing I should post to those pathans. Eeen daagha sthaso pathanthob wo..che sthaso watan thabaa sho ao daltha pakistanae waee che agho pa Afghansitan kae wogattall am pa stha weeno.

Funny thing Army of Pakistan, when we post Americans that say you are losing you complain, now you found an article where it says Pakistan is winning. You must be real proud.

[Levanaye Zalmaye]

This article is ignoring another side of the problem altogether. Pakistan's moral and logistical support for these Jihadi groups has resulted in a mass Talibanization of Pakistani society. The repercussions of Lal Masjid can still be felt today. There is a massive disconnect between the rulers and the ruled, as a result, because law-makers are targets for disenfranchised terror groups. International sport can barely take place in Pakistan, dignitaries think ten times before visiting - if they visit at all that is, almost the entire region of FATA is up in rebellion against the Pakistani state and more than 3,000 people have paid with their lives in Pakistan for these failed policies

A wrong policy can never be successful. Pakistan supported the Taliban in 1995 and it didn't end up well for them. It won't end up being good for them again.

The United States cannot achieve its goals in Afghanistan while the Afghan Taliban's sanctuaries in Pakistan remain open. The Pakistani government refuses to close or even isolate those sanctuaries. Yet the massive U.S. foreign-assistance pipeline to Pakistan remains open.

Do you take pride in this? It's like running around naked, shouting that you're a begharat and you're proud of it.


Even IF the same Taliban leadership returns to Afghanistan under the direction of the ISI, it will be a Pyrrhic victory at best because one, strategic depth is useless now (India will never militarily attack Pakistan because of the nuclear deterrent), Pakistan, already bankrupt, will spend more money on Afghanistan which it can spend to build a few more Mohtarma Benazir Shaheed parks, the Jihadists inevitably will bite their master's hand once again, Afghanistan will never be ethnically divided because Pashtuns live in far off corners of the Afghan state and are not concentrated specifically in one area as such plus non-Pashtun Afghan nationals are patriotic, US aid will stop once there is stability in Afghanistan and Pakistan will revisit the misery and isolation of the 90s, where it was almost declared a terrorist state.

[Army of Pakistan]

^^Its all wishful thinking which is prevalent in this forum. Nothing more.


Calling me a loser is not going to change the evidentiary clear fact that Afghanistan is at the mercy of Pakistan.

[Levanaye Zalmaye]

Calling me a loser is not going to change the evidentiary clear fact that Afghanistan is at the mercy of Pakistan.

I beg to differ, Quaid-e-Azam. Pakistan is at the mercy of dangerously confused Islamofascists within and outside the politico-military establishment who have to a great extent destroyed Pakistani society and if given a free hand again, will cause its ultimate demise.

[Army of Pakistan]

I beg to differ, Quaid-e-Azam. Pakistan is at the mercy of dangerously confused Islamofascists within and outside the politico-military establishment who have to a great extent destroyed Pakistani society and if given a free hand again, will cause its ultimate demise.

You say U.S. will leave us in previous post, well if U.S. leaves Pakistan we will still have an all weather friend China. Whose economy is rapidly growing. Pakistan is soon going to be a member with SCO. You can't say China who has 4 trillion in savings will abandon us. They are literally giving away two nuclear reactors to us, they are going to most likely give us 4 submarines at their expense. U.S. economy is withering, Chinese is booming. Pakistan is actively working with several dozen other nations on economic, military partnership.

These Islamofacists never caused misery for Pakistan till 2001 U.S. invasion of Afghanistan and this was caused WHEN Pakistan allied itself with the U.S. When U.S. withdraws, NATO convoys stop travelling through Pak to Afghanistan it will end.

The "pyrrhic victory" you speak of is still a victory. Afghanistan has always been a problem for Pakistan, now Pakistan has the opportunity to put an end to this nuisance of a neighbor, and it should direct all of its resources to do so.

These are a reality on the ground, while you have a doomsday scenario for Pakistan, Pakistan has withstood the past 63 years of Afghan B.S. and all this ethnic tensions, there is no reason for it to fail now. We are too powerful now. Sure we have run into some problems, but calling for Pakistan's demise is just as I said earlier, wishful thinking.

[BLS_1919v2.0]

You say U.S. will leave us in previous post, well if U.S. leaves Pakistan we will still have an all weather friend China. Whose economy is rapidly growing. Pakistan is soon going to be a member with SCO. You can't say China who has 4 trillion in savings will abandon us. They are literally giving away two nuclear reactors to us, they are going to most likely give us 4 submarines at their expense. U.S. economy is withering, Chinese is booming. Pakistan is actively working with several dozen other nations on economic, military partnership.

These Islamofacists never caused misery for Pakistan till 2001 U.S. invasion of Afghanistan and this was caused WHEN Pakistan allied itself with the U.S. When U.S. withdraws, NATO convoys stop travelling through Pak to Afghanistan it will end.

The "pyrrhic victory" you speak of is still a victory. Afghanistan has always been a problem for Pakistan, now Pakistan has the opportunity to put an end to this nuisance of a neighbor, and it should direct all of its resources to do so.

These are a reality on the ground, while you have a doomsday scenario for Pakistan, Pakistan has withstood the past 63 years of Afghan B.S. and all this ethnic tensions, there is no reason for it to fail now. We are too powerful now. Sure we have run into some problems, but calling for Pakistan's demise is just as I said earlier, wishful thinking.

Do you know what a Pyrrhic victory is? If you did, you wouldn`t be saying all this.

[Afghan_Soldier]

China being a **** frirend is just a nuance in the current context or in a broad sense when it comes to your allegation, and some or the develpments recently. Pakistan remains well in the Western bloc. You will not be able to present empirically proven what you wishfuly surmise to make a point. As for what you think is Afghanistan being at the mercy of Pakistan, well you are dead wrong. Pakistan's own faith is, one can argue is n ot certain.

[Afghan_Soldier]

As far as Afghan are concerned, we should only take the back seat and let Paakis and the U.S. play it out.

[Army of Pakistan]

China being a **** frirend is just a nuance in the current context or in a broad sense when it comes to your allegation, and some or the develpments recently. Pakistan remains well in the Western bloc. You will not be able to present empirically proven what you wishfuly surmise to make a point. As for what you think is Afghanistan being at the mercy of Pakistan, well you are dead wrong. Pakistan's own faith is, one can argue is n ot certain.

then why is karzai kneeling to zardari?

[Afghan_Soldier]

How and when? You don't know what is going on in the background, do you?

[ayub]

no one will win the war, see families only die. And birds won't soar the sky..and there'll be no sun to shine. No country wins a war........

[Afghan_Soldier]

Paakis are winning.

[Levanaye Zalmaye]

You say U.S. will leave us in previous post, well if U.S. leaves Pakistan we will still have an all weather friend China. Whose economy is rapidly growing. Pakistan is soon going to be a member with SCO. You can't say China who has 4 trillion in savings will abandon us. They are literally giving away two nuclear reactors to us, they are going to most likely give us 4 submarines at their expense. U.S. economy is withering, Chinese is booming. Pakistan is actively working with several dozen other nations on economic, military partnership.

China's friendship is unreliable - it's a rising global power (and that's why it's trying to mend fences with India) and it will never risk it all and go to war for a small state. Furthermore, China is not in a position to fill in for Pakistan's annual budget deficits the way the United States does. If Pakistan thought it could survive on Chinese charity rather than American (which comes with strings attached), it would've made very different decisions after 9/11.

Pakistani trade partners (Exports): US 16.1%, UAE 11.7%, Afghanistan 8.6%, UK 4.5%, China 4.2%.

Imports: China 14.3%, Saudi Arabia 12.2%, UAE 11.3%, Kuwait 5.5%, US 4.8%, Malaysia 4.1%

It doesn't take Adam Smith, Mr 20% or Sartaaj Aziz to realize that China dumps its inferior goods in your markets thereby crushing your local industry while only giving very little opportunity to your exporters. The US, Afghanistan and the Sheikhdoms have been far more generous in this regard.

These Islamofacists never caused misery for Pakistan till 2001 U.S. invasion of Afghanistan and this was caused WHEN Pakistan allied itself with the U.S. When U.S. withdraws, NATO convoys stop travelling through Pak to Afghanistan it will end.

The "pyrrhic victory" you speak of is still a victory. Afghanistan has always been a problem for Pakistan, now Pakistan has the opportunity to put an end to this nuisance of a neighbor, and it should direct all of its resources to do so.

These are a reality on the ground, while you have a doomsday scenario for Pakistan, Pakistan has withstood the past 63 years of Afghan B.S. and all this ethnic tensions, there is no reason for it to fail now. We are too powerful now. Sure we have run into some problems, but calling for Pakistan's demise is just as I said earlier, wishful thinking.

Pakistan didn't ally itself with anyone. It was bullied into submission and had to reverse its only foreign policy success in the process. The possible 'victory' in Afghanistan would be hollow and detrimental to Pakistan only. Read my post again that I made on the previous page.

Pakistan has withstood for the past 63 years? It has its balls chopped off by Jagjit Singh Aurora in 1971. Balochistan is lawless outside Quetta, which itself is heavily fortified by paramilitary forces. Pakistan, compared to India, China, South Korea, the ASEAN states, the Middle-East and north Africa (all that states that came into being mostly after WW-II), is impoverished, unstable and kept afloat by foreign money. It's like the Ottoman Empire during its end - a kingdom kept alive by British and French money and German military expertise.

I never called for Pakistan's demise. All I pointed out was that the men who have already dragged down Pakistan are still in power and if they continue to remain so, the common man living within the boundary lines of the state called Pakistan will continue to suffer poverty and injustice.