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Released: July 29, 2010 Concern About Extremist Threat Slips in Pakistan | Pew Global Attitudes Project
Concern About Extremist Threat Slips in Pakistan
America's Image Remains Poor
Overview
Pakistanis remain in a grim mood about the state of their country. Overwhelming majorities are dissatisfied with national conditions, unhappy with the nation’s economy, and concerned about political corruption and crime. Only one-in-five express a positive view of President Asif Ali Zardari, down from 64% just two years ago.
As Pakistani forces continue to battle extremist groups within the country, nearly all Pakistanis describe terrorism as a very big problem. However, they have grown markedly less concerned that extremists might take control of the country. Last year, at a time when the Pakistani military was taking action against Taliban forces in the Swat Valley within 100 miles of the nation’s capital, 69% were very or somewhat worried about extremist groups taking control of Pakistan. Today, just 51% express concern about an extremist takeover.
More specifically, Pakistanis also feel less threatened by the Taliban and much less by al Qaeda. Last year, 73% rated the Taliban a serious threat, compared with 54% now. Roughly six-in-ten (61%) considered al Qaeda a serious threat last year; now, just 38% feel this way.
Nonetheless, both the Taliban and al Qaeda remain unpopular among Pakistanis – 65% give the Taliban an unfavorable rating and 53% feel this way about al Qaeda. Negative views toward these groups have become a little less prevalent over the past year, while positive views have crept up slightly. Still, opinions are much more negative today than was the case two years ago, when roughly one-third expressed an unfavorable view of both groups, one-quarter gave them a positive rating, and four-in-ten offered no opinion.
Pakistanis express more mixed views about another militant organization, Lashkar-e-Taiba, a Pakistani group active in Kashmir that has often attacked Indian targets (it is widely blamed for the November 2008 Mumbai terrorist attacks). Just 35% have a negative view of Lashkar-e-Taiba, a much lower percentage than for the other extremist organizations tested. One-in-four Pakistanis express a positive assessment, while 40% offer no opinion. Essentially, views toward Lashkar-e-Taiba resemble Pakistani views about the Taliban and al Qaeda prior to 2009, when the balance of public opinion shifted from indifference to opposition to those groups.
Less Support for U.S. Involvement
America’s overall image remains negative in Pakistan. Along with Turks and Egyptians, Pakistanis give the U.S. its lowest ratings among the 22 nations included in the spring 2010 Pew Global Attitudes survey – in all three countries, only 17% have a favorable view of the U.S. Roughly six-in-ten (59%) Pakistanis describe the U.S. as an enemy, while just 11% say it is a partner. And President Barack Obama is unpopular – only 8% of Pakistanis express confidence that he will do the right thing in world affairs, his lowest rating among the 22 nations.
Moreover, support for U.S. involvement in the fight against extremists has waned over the last year. Fewer Pakistanis now want the U.S. to provide financial and humanitarian aid to areas where extremist groups operate, or for the U.S. to provide intelligence and logistical support to Pakistani troops fighting extremists, although about half of those surveyed still favor these efforts. There is also little support for U.S. drone strikes against extremist leaders – those who are aware of these attacks generally say they are not necessary, and overwhelmingly they believe the strikes kill too many civilians.
The U.S.-led war in neighboring Afghanistan is widely opposed by Pakistanis. Nearly two-thirds (65%) want U.S. and NATO troops removed as soon as possible. And relatively few Pakistanis believe the situation in Afghanistan could have a serious impact on their country: 25% think it would be bad for Pakistan if the Taliban regained control of Afghanistan and 18% say it would be good; 27% think it would not matter and 30% have no opinion.
Nonetheless, despite the prevalence of negative opinions about the U.S., most Pakistanis want better relations between the two countries. Nearly two-in-three (64%) say it is important for relations with the U.S. to improve, up from 53% last year.
These are the latest findings from a spring 2010 survey of Pakistan by the Pew Research Center’s Global Attitudes Project. Face-to-face interviews were conducted with 2,000 adults in Pakistan April 13 to 28, 2010. The sample, which is disproportionately urban, includes Punjab, Sindh, Baluchistan, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (formerly the North-West Frontier Province, or NWFP). However, portions of Baluchistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are not included because of instability. The Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), as well as Gilgit-Baltistan (formerly the Federally Administered Northern Areas, or FANA) and Azad Jammu and Kashmir, were not surveyed. The area covered by the sample represents approximately 84% of the adult population.[1] (Pakistan was surveyed as part of the
Spring 2010 Pew Global Attitudes Survey, which included 22 nations. For more findings from this survey, see “Obama More Popular Abroad Than at Home, Global Image of U.S. Continues to Benefit,” released June 17, 2010).
India Seen as a Threat
While Pakistanis express serious concerns about the U.S., they also have deep worries about their neighbor and longtime rival India. Indeed, they are more worried about the external threat from India than extremist groups within Pakistan. When asked which is the greatest threat to their country – India, the Taliban or al Qaeda – slightly more than half of Pakistanis (53%) choose India, compared with 23% for the Taliban and just 3% for al Qaeda.
However, despite the deep-seated tensions between these two countries, most Pakistanis want better relations with India. Roughly seven-in-ten (72%) say it is important for relations with India to improve and about three-quarters support increased trade with India and further talks between the two rivals.
A Bleak View of National Conditions
Few Pakistanis are happy with the state of their nation – only 14% are satisfied with national conditions, while 84% say they are dissatisfied.
Views of the economy are almost as grim. More than three-in-four (78%) say the country’s economy is in bad shape. Moreover, there is growing pessimism about Pakistan’s economic future. Half of the public expects the country’s economic situation to worsen over the next 12 months, up from 35% in the 2009 survey.
Almost all Pakistanis say the lack of jobs is a major problem facing their nation, although economic issues are not the only challenges widely perceived. Vast majorities characterize terrorism, crime, illegal drugs, political corruption, the situation in Kashmir, and environmental issues as very big problems.
The gloomy national mood has clearly had an impact on evaluations of President Zardari – just 20% have a favorable view of him, compared with 64% in 2008 and 32% in 2009. Even among his own political party – the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) – fewer than four-in-ten (38%) express a positive opinion of Zardari. Other leaders receive higher marks, however, including Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani, who is also affiliated with PPP. Most respondents have positive views of Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry and cricket-star-turned-politician Imran Khan. Among the political figures tested, opposition leader Nawaz Sharif receives the highest ratings – 71% have a positive opinion of the leader of the opposition Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N).
General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, head of the Pakistani Army, is also generally well-regarded, with 61% voicing a favorable view of him. More broadly, the Pakistani military is overwhelmingly popular: 84% of Pakistanis say the military is having a good impact on their country. And, on balance, Pakistanis tend to support the army’s ongoing efforts to fight extremist groups in the FATA and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: 49% approve of these efforts, while just 20% oppose and 30% have no opinion.
Widespread Support for Harsh Laws
More than four-in-ten Pakistanis see a struggle taking place between Islamic fundamentalists and groups that want to modernize the country; and the vast majority of those who do see a struggle identify with the modernizers.
Nonetheless, many Pakistanis endorse extreme views about law, religion and society. More than eight-in-ten support segregating men and women in the workplace, stoning adulterers, and whipping and cutting off the hands of thieves. Roughly three-in-four endorse the death penalty for those who leave Islam.
Thus, even though Pakistanis largely reject extremist organizations, they embrace some of the severe laws advocated by such groups. Still, Pakistanis differ sharply with the Taliban and al Qaeda when it comes to a tactic associated with both groups: suicide bombing. Fully 80% of Pakistani Muslims say suicide bombing and other forms of violence against civilians can never be justified to defend Islam, the highest percentage among the Muslim publics surveyed. As recently as six years ago, only 35% held this view.
Also of Note:
- There is no consensus among Pakistanis about the size of American assistance to their country – 23% believe the U.S. provides a lot of financial aid, 22% say it provides a little aid, 10% say hardly any, and 16% believe the U.S. gives Pakistan no aid.
- Attitudes toward China remain positive – 84% consider China a partner to Pakistan.
- Over the last five years, Pakistani Muslims have become less likely to believe Islam plays a major role in the country’s politics. Currently, 47% say it has a large role, compared with 63% in 2005.
- The dispute over Kashmir remains a major issue. Roughly eight-in-ten say it is very important that Pakistan and India resolve this issue, and 71% rate it a very big problem.
- Pakistan’s often freewheeling media gets high marks from respondents – 76% say it is having a good influence on the country.
Chapter 1. The Battle Against Extremism (there are 6 chapters in this report)
The Taliban and al Qaeda remain generally unpopular in Pakistan, and Pakistanis continue to overwhelmingly reject the suicide terrorism associated with both groups. Many Pakistanis say the Taliban poses a serious threat to their country and about half of those surveyed are worried that extremists could take control of Pakistan. However, concerns about an extremist takeover are less widespread than one year ago, and fewer now see the Taliban and al Qaeda as serious threats than was the case in last year’s poll, which was conducted soon after the Taliban’s spring 2009 encroachment into the Buner district, only 60 miles from the Pakistani capital Islamabad.
There continues to be support for using the Pakistani army to fight extremists in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa regions of the country, and about half of Pakistanis support the idea of the U.S. providing intelligence and logistical support to Pakistani troops. However, enthusiasm for American involvement in the battle against extremists has declined over the last year, and there is little support for U.S. drone strikes against leaders of militant groups. Moreover, the great majority of Pakistanis would like to see U.S. and NATO forces out of neighboring Afghanistan.
Limited Support for Militant Groups
Roughly half of Pakistanis (53%) voice an unfavorable view of al Qaeda, down somewhat from 61% last year. However, opposition to al Qaeda is still much more common today than two years ago, when only 34% expressed an unfavorable opinion. Relatively few Pakistanis (18%) express a favorable view of the group, while 28% offer no opinion.
Views of the Taliban follow a similar pattern – 65% of Pakistanis currently give it a negative rating, down slightly from 2009 (70%), but up considerably from 2008, when only one-in-three Pakistanis offered a negative opinion. Just 15% now offer a favorable rating of the Taliban, although that number has risen from 10% a year ago.
When asked about specific Taliban-affiliated groups operating in Pakistan and Afghanistan, on balance Pakistanis offer negative ratings, although many are unfamiliar with these groups. About half (51%) have an unfavorable opinion of the Tehrik-i-Taliban (an umbrella organization of Taliban affiliated groups in Pakistan, also known as the TTP), while 18% hold a positive view and 31% are unable to rate the organization. Similarly, 49% express a negative view of the Afghan Taliban, 16% a positive view, and 34% offer no opinion.
Opinions about Lashkar-e-Taiba (a Pakistani extremist organization that is active in Kashmir and has often attacked Indian targets) are more mixed. Just over a third (35%) express a negative view of the militant group, while 25% have a favorable opinion and four-in-ten offer no assessment.
Consistently, militant groups receive more positive ratings in Punjab than in other regions. While 27% in Punjab offer a favorable opinion of al Qaeda and 22% express a favorable view of the Taliban, support for these groups is only in the single digits in Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Baluchistan. Lashkar-e-Taiba also gets its most positive ratings in Punjab, where equal numbers express a positive (34%) and negative (34%) view of the organization.
Militant organizations also receive somewhat more positive assessments from lower-income respondents.[2] For instance, 26% of those with low household incomes have a favorable view of the Taliban, compared with 13% of middle income respondents and 10% of those with higher incomes. Views of al Qaeda, Lashkar-e-Taiba, TTP, and the Afghan Taliban are also generally more positive among the lower-income group.
Few Endorse Suicide Bombing
Support for suicide attacks has declined steeply in Pakistan in recent years and it remains low on this year’s poll. As recently as 2004, roughly four-in-ten (41%) Pakistani Muslims said suicide bombing and other forms of violence against civilian targets are often or sometimes justified to defend Islam. However, support for these kinds of attacks plunged to 9% by 2007 and has stayed in the single digits since then. Currently, 8% of Pakistani Muslims consider suicide bombing justifiable
Rejection of suicide terrorism is more common among Pakistanis than among most of the other Muslim publics included in the spring 2010 Pew Global Attitudes survey. Eight-in-ten Pakistani Muslims say these attacks are never justified. Large majorities of Muslims in Turkey (77%) and Indonesia (69%) also hold this view, as well a slim majority in Jordan (54%). However, less than half of Egyptian (46%), Nigerian (44%) and Lebanese (40%) Muslims believe this kind of violence is never justified.
Views toward Osama bin Laden, whom some experts believe is now hiding in Pakistan’s tribal areas, have followed a somewhat similar trajectory, with steep declines since the middle of the last decade. In 2005, about half (52%) of Pakistani Muslims expressed confidence in bin Laden to do the right thing in world affairs; today only 18% share this view.
Concerns About Extremism Ebb
Most Pakistanis remain worried about the rise of Islamic extremism in their country, although these concerns have waned somewhat since last year. Nearly two-thirds (65%) say they are very or somewhat concerned about extremism in Pakistan, compared with 79% in 2009. When asked about the rise of extremism around the world, Pakistanis are also less concerned than they were last year (63% now vs. 76% in 2009).
Fears that extremists may take control of Pakistan are also less widespread in this year’s survey. A year ago, 69% were very or somewhat worried that extremist groups could take over the country; roughly half (51%) currently feel this way. Concerns about an extremist takeover are most common among high-income (63%) and well-educated (60%) respondents, as well as those from the Sindh region (61%).[3]
Similarly, Pakistanis see the Taliban and al Qaeda as less threatening than in last year’s survey. Currently, 54% consider the Taliban a very or somewhat serious threat to Pakistan, down from 73% in 2009. Just 38% say al Qaeda is a serious threat, compared with 61% last year.
Pakistanis in the high income group are especially likely to see a threat from both the Taliban (66%) and al Qaeda (50%). The well-educated are also more concerned about these groups – 61% see a threat from the Taliban and 51% from al Qaeda. Residents of Sindh (68%) are more likely than others to consider the Taliban a serious threat, while those in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (50%) are the most concerned about al Qaeda.
Little Enthusiasm for Drone Strikes
Despite their opposition to extremist groups, Pakistanis who have heard about drone attacks targeting leaders of extremist organizations tend to oppose these attacks. Just over one-in-three Pakistanis (35%) have heard about the drone strikes. Nearly all (93%) of those who are familiar with the strikes say they are a bad thing.
Most Pakistanis (56%) who have heard about the drone attacks say they are not necessary to defend Pakistan from extremist groups, while about one-in-three (32%) believe they are necessary. Nine-in-ten think these attacks kill too many innocent people.
Roughly half (49%) of Pakistanis who have heard about the strikes think they are being conducted without their government’s approval, while 33% disagree with this opinion. About two-thirds (66%) of those familiar with the drone attacks believe the U.S. government is conducting them, while 6% say it is the Pakistani government, and 15% volunteer that it is both governments.
Even though the drone attacks are unpopular, many Pakistanis believe the death of TTP leader Baitullah Mehsud, who was killed by a drone missile attack in August 2009, was a good thing. Among those who have heard about Mehsud’s death, 47% say it was a good thing, 31% say it was bad, and 22% do not give an opinion.[4]
Fewer Want U.S. Involvement
Support for U.S. involvement in the battle against extremist groups in Pakistan has declined since last year. Currently, 53% of Pakistanis support the U.S. providing financial and humanitarian aid to areas where extremist groups operate, down from 72% in 2009.
Today, 48% want the U.S. to provide intelligence and logistical support to Pakistani troops fighting extremist groups, compared with 63% last year.
Just 23% of Pakistanis support the idea of the U.S. conducting drone strikes in conjunction with the Pakistani government against extremist leaders. About one-in-three (32%) oppose this idea, while nearly half (45%) do not have an opinion.
Afghanistan
U.S. and NATO military efforts in neighboring Afghanistan are broadly unpopular among Pakistanis – 65% say the U.S. and NATO should withdraw their troops as soon as possible, down slightly from 72% in 2009. Only 7% say coalition forces should remain in Afghanistan until the situation there is stabilized, while 28% do not offer an opinion.
Many Pakistanis do not see the war in Afghanistan having an impact on their country. One-in-four say that it would be bad for Pakistan if the Taliban regained control of Afghanistan, 18% say it would be a good thing, and 27% believe it would not matter. Three-in-ten have no view on this issue.
The Pakistani Role in Fighting Extremists
About half (49%) of Pakistanis support the idea of using their country’s army to fight extremist groups in FATA and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, while 20% oppose this and 30% offer no opinion. There has been minimal change on this question since last year, although the percentage of Pakistanis who express no opinion has risen eight points.
In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa itself, public opinion leans in favor of using the army to fight extremists, although many residents of the region do not give an opinion – 43% support, 17% oppose, and 40% do not know. Support for using the military is stronger among high-income (60%) and middle-income (58%) Pakistanis than among those with lower household incomes (48%).
Few Pakistanis are familiar with the arrest of Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, a leading figure in the Afghan Taliban, by Pakistani authorities in February – only 12% are aware of his arrest. Half of those who have heard about this say it was a good thing, 33% consider it a bad thing, and 18% voice no opinion.
2. For income, respondents are grouped into three categories of low, middle and high. Low-income respondents are those with a reported monthly household income of 7,000 rupees or less, middle-income respondents fall between the range of 7,001 to 15,000 rupees per month, and those in the high-income category earn 15,001 rupees or more per month.
3. For education, respondents are grouped into three categories: no formal education, at least some primary, and some secondary or more.
4. About one-in-five (22%) Pakistanis have heard about the death of Baitullah Mehsud.
Full report here http://pewglobal.org/files/pdf/Pew-G...tan-Report.pdfLast edited by Guest; 07-29-2010, 04:08 PM.
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