North Waziristan Taliban revoke peace accord with Pak govt

[Shah-i-Kot]

http://freepressjournal.in/north-waz...with-pak-govt/


North Waziristan Taliban revoke peace accord with Pak govt

— By PTI, May 30, 2014 09:14 pm

Islamabad: A powerful faction of the Taliban in Pakistan’s restive tribal region today revoked a peace deal with the government, blaming military operations in the area.
North Waziristan-based Hafiz Gul Bahadur had one of the longest surviving peace deals with security forces before he revoked it today.
Bahadur’s spokesman Ahmadullah Ahmdai said the locals have been given a deadline till June 10 to leave the area due to impending fighting with the security forces.
He blamed the military operation which about two weeks ago killed at least 80 militants.
The Taliban commander also distributed pamphlets in the region, asking the locals to leave as the government was planning to launch a fresh operation.
“The shura mujahideen has decided not to tolerate this aggression anymore and has opted to fight and defend Waziristan,” the pamphlet said.
Bahadur has hundreds of fighters under his control but has avoided fighting state troops under an agreement of 2007.
He has concentrated on attacking western troops in Afghanistan.
Two other groups have fought pitched battled in the district this month which has left about 40 militants dead.
The announcement by Bahadur can cause problems for the government which is trying to salvage a stalled peace process with the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan led by Maulvi Fazlullah.

[tripledouble]

the TTP are asking for extinction, they're already weakened and now they just want to be taken to the grave.

[Da Bannu Mazdigar]

His group is inactive since the past many years.Any idea about the possible strength?

anyway he in 2011 also had declared war on Pakistani govt after the death of shahbaz khan wazir,but later made peace deals with the govt again.

[Zubr-Zubr]

Allah with Taliban.

[Zubr-Zubr]

Nawaz is a killer.

[Smarty]

His group is inactive since the past many years.Any idea about the possible strength?

anyway he in 2011 also had declared war on Pakistani govt after the death of shahbaz khan wazir,but later made peace deals with the govt again.

I told you not to be hasty in declaring victory. Hafiz gul bahadur has made several threats of breaking peace accord on civilian casaulties at the hand of paki army but was able to restrain himself after stopping of aggression. This time he has finally broke it, civilian casaulties are mounting and paki army is not stopping aggression.
How strong is he?, numerically he has as many fighters as mehsuds, according to estimates. Why do you think paki army wanted to maintain peace accord with this guy?, because
1-He has support and backing of utmanzai wazir tribe
2- He has support of militants from dawar tribe
3-He has support of haqqani network
4- he has respect among taliban groups of ahmadzai wazir tribes
the guy was surely inactive in pakistan but active in afghanistan in coordination with haqqani network. You see what has happened here?,in exchange for small faction of sajna's mehsud taliban, pak army has made rather a complex group their enemy.Unlike TTP, hafiz gul bahadur has never carried out suicide blast or attack on civilians but is noted for inflicting heavy casaulties on paki army before 2007. I dont know the future outcome, but it is certain that war for paki army wont be piece of cake, as you were claiming.
@bengali_tiger, [MENTION=1547]khushal[/MENTION], @randolph, [MENTION=2]Admin Khan[/MENTION]

[Smarty]

Note that he has ordered people of N.waziristan not to take refuge in governament camps but move towards Afghanistan.

[Bengal_Tiger]

I told you not to be hasty in declaring victory. Hafiz gul bahadur has made several threats of breaking peace accord on civilian casaulties at the hand of paki army but was able to restrain himself after stopping of aggression. This time he has finally broke it, civilian casaulties are mounting and paki army is not stopping aggression.
How strong is he?, numerically he has as many fighters as mehsuds, according to estimates. Why do you think paki army wanted to maintain peace accord with this guy?, because
1-He has support and backing of utmanzai wazir tribe
2- He has support of militants from dawar tribe
3-He has support of haqqani network
4- he has respect among taliban groups of ahmadzai wazir tribes
the guy was surely inactive in pakistan but active in afghanistan in coordination with haqqani network. You see what has happened here?,in exchange for small faction of sajna's mehsud taliban, pak army has made rather a complex group their enemy.Unlike TTP, hafiz gul bahadur has never carried out suicide blast or attack on civilians but is noted for inflicting heavy casaulties on paki army before 2007. I dont know the future outcome, but it is certain that war for paki army wont be piece of cake, as you were claiming.
@bengali_tiger, [MENTION=1547]khushal[/MENTION], @randolph, [MENTION=2]Admin Khan[/MENTION]

1. The tribal Pashtuns of FATA and elsewhere are generally tougher and fiercer fighters than the average Pakistani soldier and also their overrated SSG whom they defeated in the past.

This is because they come from a martial tradition where to not be a fighter is shameful (be-nang) and even the environment, the mountains and terrain of FATA make these tribals tough. The lands of FATA are 24 hour military training as opposed to the 9-5 training of the Pakistan army.


2. The TTP was far stronger in the past and a few years ago there was a point where they were going to/ or had taken Buner and were on the verge of approaching mainly Hindko, Haripur, a non-Pashtun town.

However the TTP have gone beyond their peak. From 2007-2009 or slightly after they enjoyed the support of certain Pashtun tribes, who later became disillusioned and disgusted with them due to their harsh ways. This loss of support also meant a decrease in power, as some of these tribes let the Pakistan army hit the militants.


3. So tribal backing and power is very important. The fact is it seems that Bahadur has this and not just from the tribes of FATA but their blood brothers and kinsmen to the west in Afghankhwa across the so-called (and imaginary) "Durrand line". If Bahadur's forces and their allies start inflicting heavy losses on the Pakistan army, then what may happen is this:

a: The Pakistanis will sue for peace, as they've done before with militants.

b: Imran Khan will be vindicated by saying that negotiations with militants are the only way.

The urban Pashtuns of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are simply not interested in Talibanism or living under the backwards pseudo-shariah of the militants and would support the Pakistan army over the tribals. There is a urban/tribal divide anyway.

I really can't see much happening here except Bahadur inflicting heavy losses against the Pakistan army who then stop fighting them. Bahadur seems to be the sort of person who is perfectly happy to have control his own region and not go out and carry out bombings and attacks elsewhere. So in effect if he beats the Pakistanis and they ask for a ceasefire it will be a return to the previous status quo and nothing else.

So in effect nothing fundamentally changes.

The Fazlullah group however are totally different and want to engage in an aggressive war against the Pakistan army and state.

However I can never see this group taking the whole of Pakhtunkhwa (urban Pashtuns hate the Taliban) or Islamabad, though that is not impossible.

The real threat to the Pakistani state and federation is not the Taliban (who though annoying do not oppose the existence of the state or the concept of "Pakistan") but the Baloch rebels.

4. I have no idea how the Baloch insurgency is faring. I thought it had died down but I've recently been told it is "booming". I personally believe it is the Baloch who will decide the future of the federation, of 180 million Muslims and not Pashtuns.


There are many ifs, buts and other points I could mention and I have omitted certain things but this for now is my 2 cents.

[Bengal_Tiger]

The west.

As for the west they will be more than happy to see the current conflict continue for years with no decisive result be it victory or defeat for the militants.

Whilst the conflict continues.

- 2 million Pashtuns stay as refugees.

- The Pashtun Hewad (Watan - motherland) in FATA is devastated physically and culturally. Many FATA Pashtuns have fled to Karachi. Their culture, their presence in the land where they had lived for centuries now destroyed, perhaps never to be restored ever again.

- Pashtuns of Karachi are suffering with the progressive ANP being expelled by the "Taliban" (accused of being backed by the ISI), Pashtun traders fleeing and the Taliban extending their writ not just over FATA but Pashtun areas of Karachi, the biggest city of Pashtuns on earth. Meaning a huge portion of the entire Pashtun nation is under the authority of these extremists (in FATA & Karachi).

- Pashtun areas stay unstable and dysfunctional.

To be honest I think [MENTION=1201]Toramana[/MENTION] and [MENTION=1068]gadoonwal[/MENTION] have a point when they say the west are taking revenge against Pashtuns for their defeats in the past. Remember the biggest ever defeat the British suffered was in the 1840s to Pashtuns of Afghanistan. Not the Nazis, not Napoleon, not the Normans, not George Washington but the Pashtuns.

[Da Bannu Mazdigar]

I told you not to be hasty in declaring victory. Hafiz gul bahadur has made several threats of breaking peace accord on civilian casaulties at the hand of paki army but was able to restrain himself after stopping of aggression. This time he has finally broke it, civilian casaulties are mounting and paki army is not stopping aggression.
How strong is he?, numerically he has as many fighters as mehsuds, according to estimates. Why do you think paki army wanted to maintain peace accord with this guy?, because
1-He has support and backing of utmanzai wazir tribe
2- He has support of militants from dawar tribe
3-He has support of haqqani network
4- he has respect among taliban groups of ahmadzai wazir tribes
the guy was surely inactive in pakistan but active in afghanistan in coordination with haqqani network. You see what has happened here?,in exchange for small faction of sajna's mehsud taliban, pak army has made rather a complex group their enemy.Unlike TTP, hafiz gul bahadur has never carried out suicide blast or attack on civilians but is noted for inflicting heavy casaulties on paki army before 2007. I dont know the future outcome, but it is certain that war for paki army wont be piece of cake, as you were claiming.
@bengali_tiger, [MENTION=1547]khushal[/MENTION], @randolph, [MENTION=2]Admin Khan[/MENTION]

If the local indeed are shifted to other region than taliban doesnt even stand a chance no matter even if there strength is in excess of 50k.

The difficulty in North waziristan operation is huge population,Big market and a business centre unlike South waziristan.

Apart from this,Pak army might use SSG as in swat Operation.for 1 soldier more than 15Taliban died.North waziristan case is different.They now even have armed drone's so will carry out air strike in a full scale operation at minimum cost.

Beside this i still doubt he will go for a operation since unlike TTP,this guy doesnt has any support from Afghanistan govt and ANA will not give him any safe zone in Kunar/nuristan etc

[Smarty]

If the local indeed are shifted to other region than taliban doesnt even stand a chance no matter even if there strength is in excess of 50k.

The difficulty in North waziristan operation is huge population,Big market and a business centre unlike South waziristan.

Apart from this,Pak army might use SSG as in swat Operation.for 1 soldier more than 15Taliban died.North waziristan case is different.They now even have armed drone's so will carry out air strike in a full scale operation at minimum cost.

Beside this i still doubt he will go for a operation since unlike TTP,this guy doesnt has any support from Afghanistan govt and ANA will not give him any safe zone in Kunar/nuristan etc

What are you smoking? This guy is fighting for Afghan taliban since 2007, he is more deeply linked with Afghan taliban and haqqani network than any pakistani group of taliban. He can find refuge in any part of afghanistan where taliban are operating.
In case you have missed the news, let me remind you he has ordered all of his fighters in Afghanistan to come to NW to face the upcoming military operation.

[ComradePashtun]

I however do agree wih you Smarty on the strong links between Afghan Taliban and Hafiz Gul Bahadur. There are sizeable number of these militants who could answer his call who probably are the most superior of the Waziristani militants due to their experience of fighting in the the Afghan battlefields.

[khushal]

Beside this i still doubt he will go for a operation since unlike TTP,this guy doesnt has any support from Afghanistan govt and ANA will not give him any safe zone in Kunar/nuristan etc

As long as the TTP is causing problems for the Pakistani state, the ANA will leave them alone just like as long as the afghan Taliban is causing problems for the Afghan gov, the Pakistani army will leave them be.