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By
Margherita Stancati
May 12, 2014 12:00 a.m. ET
KABUL—Violence levels across Afghanistan are steadily rising as U.S.-led troops return home, an indication that the Taliban remain determined to fight for power, according to a report by the International Crisis Group set for release on Monday.
An analysis by the ICG, an independent conflict-resolution organization, estimates that the number of insurgent attacks in Afghanistan increased 15-20% in 2013 from a year earlier, the first time such figures will be released publicly. It added that violence continued to escalate in the first months of 2014.
Afghan forces took the lead in their country's security over the course of 2013, with the U.S.-led coalition stepping back from combat and focusing instead on training and advising the army, police and air force.
The coalition's footprint is rapidly shrinking, with around 90 bases housing some 50,000 troops, fewer than 34,000 of them American. At one time, there were more than 100,000 U.S. troops in the country. Afghan forces, now 376,000-strong, are doing most of the fighting.
Some observers hoped that Taliban factions, seeing foreign fighters leave, would put down their weapons. But the changing nature of the conflict—which increasingly pits Afghan against Afghan—hasn't weakened the resolve of the insurgency.
The figures released by the International Crisis Group are consistent with United Nations data that showed a 14% increase in civilian casualties last year, most of them blamed on the Taliban.
In a report released last month, the U.S. Department of Defense said that while the number of roadside bombs decreased in the October to mid-March period from a year earlier, other security indicators, such as high-profile attacks and incidents of direct fire, were up.
Rural districts in the south and east remain among the most violent in the country.
In the Ghaziabad district of eastern Kunar province, for example, Taliban activity increased after U.S. troops pulled out, the ICG report found, with insurgents targeting Afghan security forces and encroaching on roads.
"Even within a single district, the number of insurgents giving up the fight was eclipsed by a greater number who continued fighting," it said.
Last week, in a statement announcing the beginning of their annual spring offensive, the Taliban said they would keep on fighting even if just a small number of international troops remain in Afghanistan after their current mission ends in December.
While the conflict has grown in intensity, Afghan forces successfully cleared some territory from Taliban control and prevented large-scale security problems during the presidential election of April 5.
They did, however, suffer casualties almost as high as those that they inflicted. The ICG report estimates that, in 2013, there were 8,200 Afghan troops injured or killed, compared with the Taliban's 9,500. Lacking professional medical aid, many more insurgents than troops were killed.
The Afghan ministry of defense stopped releasing casualty figures last year for fear it would hurt troop morale. A spokesman for the ministry said he wasn't able to comment on violence levels.
The ability of Afghan security forces to keep the insurgency at bay will largely depend on whether international donors will continue to pay troop salaries.
This is conditional on Washington and Kabul signing a long-term security deal that would allow a limited number of U.S. and allied troops focused on counterterrorism and on training Afghan forces to stay in Afghanistan after the end of this year.
Outgoing President Hamid Karzai has refused to sign the deal.
But the two top vote-getters in the presidential election— Abdullah Abdullah and Ashraf Ghani —both said they would immediately sign it if elected.
The ICG argued that Afghan forces need more military tools to maintain their edge over the insurgency.
"With or without backup from international forces, the Afghan government will need more helicopters, armored vehicles, and logistical support to accomplish that limited objective."
By
Margherita Stancati
May 12, 2014 12:00 a.m. ET
KABUL—Violence levels across Afghanistan are steadily rising as U.S.-led troops return home, an indication that the Taliban remain determined to fight for power, according to a report by the International Crisis Group set for release on Monday.
An analysis by the ICG, an independent conflict-resolution organization, estimates that the number of insurgent attacks in Afghanistan increased 15-20% in 2013 from a year earlier, the first time such figures will be released publicly. It added that violence continued to escalate in the first months of 2014.
Afghan forces took the lead in their country's security over the course of 2013, with the U.S.-led coalition stepping back from combat and focusing instead on training and advising the army, police and air force.
The coalition's footprint is rapidly shrinking, with around 90 bases housing some 50,000 troops, fewer than 34,000 of them American. At one time, there were more than 100,000 U.S. troops in the country. Afghan forces, now 376,000-strong, are doing most of the fighting.
Some observers hoped that Taliban factions, seeing foreign fighters leave, would put down their weapons. But the changing nature of the conflict—which increasingly pits Afghan against Afghan—hasn't weakened the resolve of the insurgency.
The figures released by the International Crisis Group are consistent with United Nations data that showed a 14% increase in civilian casualties last year, most of them blamed on the Taliban.
In a report released last month, the U.S. Department of Defense said that while the number of roadside bombs decreased in the October to mid-March period from a year earlier, other security indicators, such as high-profile attacks and incidents of direct fire, were up.
Rural districts in the south and east remain among the most violent in the country.
In the Ghaziabad district of eastern Kunar province, for example, Taliban activity increased after U.S. troops pulled out, the ICG report found, with insurgents targeting Afghan security forces and encroaching on roads.
"Even within a single district, the number of insurgents giving up the fight was eclipsed by a greater number who continued fighting," it said.
Last week, in a statement announcing the beginning of their annual spring offensive, the Taliban said they would keep on fighting even if just a small number of international troops remain in Afghanistan after their current mission ends in December.
While the conflict has grown in intensity, Afghan forces successfully cleared some territory from Taliban control and prevented large-scale security problems during the presidential election of April 5.
They did, however, suffer casualties almost as high as those that they inflicted. The ICG report estimates that, in 2013, there were 8,200 Afghan troops injured or killed, compared with the Taliban's 9,500. Lacking professional medical aid, many more insurgents than troops were killed.
The Afghan ministry of defense stopped releasing casualty figures last year for fear it would hurt troop morale. A spokesman for the ministry said he wasn't able to comment on violence levels.
The ability of Afghan security forces to keep the insurgency at bay will largely depend on whether international donors will continue to pay troop salaries.
This is conditional on Washington and Kabul signing a long-term security deal that would allow a limited number of U.S. and allied troops focused on counterterrorism and on training Afghan forces to stay in Afghanistan after the end of this year.
Outgoing President Hamid Karzai has refused to sign the deal.
But the two top vote-getters in the presidential election— Abdullah Abdullah and Ashraf Ghani —both said they would immediately sign it if elected.
The ICG argued that Afghan forces need more military tools to maintain their edge over the insurgency.
"With or without backup from international forces, the Afghan government will need more helicopters, armored vehicles, and logistical support to accomplish that limited objective."
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