Afghanistan: Potential run-off election alliances

[Toramana]

Which alliances will take place? There are rumours Abdullah Abdullah is wooeing Zalamai Rasul it is not clear though the votes Rasul got was through his own mantle or due to the influence of Karzai. One wonders how potent Rasul and Abdullah alliance could be and how much the following of the other loosing candidates count in the run-off-election equation.

[ComradePashtun]

At this stage I personally think Zalmay Rasoul and the rest, except Sayaf which is difficult to guess who he will back will rally behind Ghani. Zalmay Raoul's vote = Karzai's job.

[ComradePashtun]

The real elections is the second round. Karzai made sure that there will be a second round. He never cease to astonish you - truly master of Afghan politics.

[BarakzaiAbdali]

At this stage I personally think Zalmay Rasoul and the rest, except Sayaf which is difficult to guess who he will back will rally behind Ghani. Zalmay Raoul's vote = Karzai's job.

This is the scenario I see as well... the only thing that I would mention is that Ahmad Zia Massoud's daughter whose father is on the Rassoul ticket has been sharply going after Ghani.

A Kandahari reporter was quick to snap up her commentary and post it about Ghani regarding his speeches in Kandahar province and Helmand.

As far as you know is there a schism between Mossoud and Abdullah? From what I gathered they were more in line with one another than against.

[ComradePashtun]

That is very interesting on which side they will stand (Massouds). But kind of irrelevant since they will not bring any votes any way. No matter who joins Ghani's team from Jamiat/NA the vote from that constituency is entirely going to Abdullah.

The schism I have heard about and is known to every one.

[Toramana]

At this stage I personally think Zalmay Rasoul and the rest, except Sayaf which is difficult to guess who he will back will rally behind Ghani. Zalmay Raoul's vote = Karzai's job.

So you mean Karzai acted as a spoiler to "at least" pressure one on the candidates into an electoral alliance.

[randolph85]

So you mean Karzai acted as a spoiler to at "least" pressure one on the candidates into an electoral alliance.

I don't think Karzai was naive enough to think that Rasul could win, Its obvious he was using Rasul as a wild card in order to force one of the candidates to compromise.

Even with Rasul supporting Ghani, assuming that all the people that voted for Rasul would vote for Ghani this around(which is unlikely), Abdullah would still have more votes.

I don't even think Karzai would be too disappointed in Abdullah winning, as there have been meetings between the 2 and Abdullah has said that he would want Karzai part of his government. Mind you, this is after years of being criticized by Abdullah.

[Toramana]

I don't think Karzai was naive enough to think that Rasul could win, Its obvious he was using Rasul as a wild card in order to force one of the candidates to compromise.

Even with Rasul supporting Ghani, assuming that all the people that voted for Rasul would vote for Ghani this around(which is unlikely), Abdullah would still have more votes.

I don't even think Karzai would be too disappointed in Abdullah winning, as there have been meetings between the 2 and Abdullah has said that he would want Karzai part of his government. Mind you, this is after years of being criticized by Abdullah.

That is interesting. So now Karzai has formidable leverage and can extort some space for himself. Don't you think to be perceived as a part of primarily anti-Pashtun alliance would deter him and will also hit at his political base in the south?

[ComradePashtun]

So you mean Karzai acted as a spoiler to "at least" pressure one on the candidates into an electoral alliance.

Thats exactly how it is I think.

[ComradePashtun]

I don't think Karzai was naive enough to think that Rasul could win, Its obvious he was using Rasul as a wild card in order to force one of the candidates to compromise.

Even with Rasul supporting Ghani, assuming that all the people that voted for Rasul would vote for Ghani this around(which is unlikely), Abdullah would still have more votes.

I don't even think Karzai would be too disappointed in Abdullah winning, as there have been meetings between the 2 and Abdullah has said that he would want Karzai part of his government. Mind you, this is after years of being criticized by Abdullah.

Rasoul's, Sherzai, Sultanzoi, Amin Arsala etc.'s votes are almost certainly Ghani's. That will get him at par even ahead. Sayaf's votes are decisive. Many from his (Ghani's) camp blame the low turn out in Pashtun areas and people in south are vowing that this time not every man but woman should also vote. For example there was this gathering of tribal elders from Khost and Paktia where the tribal leaders were saying this.

[ComradePashtun]

If pashtuns vote en mass and on the scale of Hazaras and at Tajiks then it is who ever they want will win.

[Al-Afghani]

If pashtuns vote en mass and on the scale of Hazaras and at Tajiks then it is who ever they want will win.

That will never happen. Pashtuns boycott elections because they prefer an Islamic Emirate headed by Amir al Mumineen Mullah Mohammad Omar. Voting is un-islamic.

[ComradePashtun]

Al-Tajikistani son of a Bandit called Saqaw,

That is not factual, because less than quarter of million Pashtuns have voted for Abdullah. Check how many votes he's got from Nangarhar, Kunar, Paktia, Zabul, Kandahar and many other provinces. Take those votes out he has definitely lost.

[Bost Bastan News]

At this stage I personally think Zalmay Rasoul and the rest, except Sayaf which is difficult to guess who he will back will rally behind Ghani. Zalmay Raoul's vote = Karzai's job.

Dr. Rassul is not strong to effects Dr. Ghani. All his votes he got because of our Mayesty Mr. Hamid Karzai and his ties to all southern districts. Mr. Rassul did very well in Kandahar dominating this region, his votes were also nearly the same in Helmand and in Farah close to Dr. Ghani. Oruzgan province was also such a region where Dr. Rassul was very close to Dr. Ghani. However, it is far from reality that Our Mayesty or Mr. Sayyaf are going to back Dr. Ghani. Let me explain this to you and reveal some secrets. The IEC organization is financed via UK and UK has its men, including Ashraf Ghani. However, we have also our men, so Mr. Khalili and Mr. Shahid Qasim Fahim. Karim Khuram and Mr. Khalili joined hands, the main initiators of the IEC and sister organizations have chosen Mr. Shirzai, Mr. Sadat and Mr. Amarkhil as leading persons. While these persons are indeed biased against non-Ghani teams, only Mr. Nuristanis is loyal to us but he has not that much saying. The team of Mr. Shahid Qasim Fahim became weak due his death (God´s mercy on him). So we in the Arg lost more than we expected the control of the IEC and they are now free to do with the votes whatever they want to do. The internal process is not even visible for us. This election is as I already thought from beginning an ethnic-centric election based of many frauds and rigging. In the first 3 weeks the team mates of Mr. Ghani were accused of more than 120 000 cases of frauds and riggings. The current result is heavily biased and those not tell us the truth. Truth is that Mr. Abdullah have won the race in the first round and our team even admitted this. A second time also by Mr. Balochzada, our spoke-man. The only team that want a second round is Dr. Ghani because he believes he can win, yet Mr. Abdullah need only 320 000 - 400 000 of votes to reach the 51% mark while Dr. Ghani needs 1,2 Mio votes and still around 1,23Mio votes are in quarantine that need to be rechecked and recounted. 40 000 votes disappeared without any reason. Our aim was to keep Mr. Abdullah on line until we can make a pleasable negotiation with him. Just imagine if Mr. Abdullah would win the race in the first round in a legitimated way. That would means he will be more independent and we could do nothing to bring him down. But putting pressure on him and making sure that at least in the new government the current Arg´s structures are saved and we (Pashtuns as whole) can still play a strong a role beyond the elections we shrink Mr. Abdullah´s space. What could he do? Calling for civil war in front of the world? Of course not. But if we can (also have lost the control of IEC) force him to a second round we can bound ourselves with Mr. Abdullah´s team. Why not with Dr. Ghani? Because the second Dr. Ghani would become president he would order the jailing of Our Mayesty and many other members. Everone looks for his own interest, right? Dr. Ghani is very independent and dangerous, so his first vice president. Just imagine Dostum with power! ITS NIGHTMARE FOR ALL AFGHANISTAN. Since Dr. Ghani is also ill and if he dies Dostum would become the president of Afghanistan. A person who not even finished the third school year will become Afghanistan´s president. Another reason is that people like Ghani are not only tribalcentric people but also fascists. They have a very strong anti-Durani and anti-Tajik sentiments and there is no chance that a Ghalzai can become again president of Afghanistan and push the country in civil war and chaos. Most likely there will be an acceptable negotiation from our side and Mr. Abdullah´s side. The email I got today from a friend indicates that there were talks yesterday evening. A power-sharing is a must to please everyside. The Pashtuns, the Hazaras, the Farsiwans, the Uzbeks and Balochis. Believing that Mr. Sayyaf will join Dr. Ghani is just fantasy. Dr. Ghani has a former Maoist and a communist as his VPs. They are also diehard disliked by Ismail Khan who hates probably Dostum at most. Most likely, Mr. Sayyaf will join Dr. Abdullah as well (Mr. Sayyaf was originally sent by us to devide the votes of the shamali Mujaheddins) as Dr. Rassul (Our Mayesty Hamid Karzai). Let´s assume Mr. Sayyaf will join Dr. Ghani due their both Ghilzai background. That will devide Mr. Sayyaf´s team. Ismail Khan will with high certainty join Mr. Abdullah and will take his 5% votes with him so Mr. Sayyaf would remain with only 2%. Many Mujaheddin leaders now know Sayyaf´s position and he can´t play it again but he can´t also join Dr. Ghani. That would cost him all credibility as self-claimed Only Representant of Mujaheddins. General Dostum who promised Dr. Ghani 3 mio votes could not even bring him this time 700 000 votes. How could Dr. Ghani win the race in the second round? Still Mr. Abdullah would have majority of votes (currently 44%) and his votes would just increase. In the second round not only more Pashtuns will vote for Dr. Ghani but also more Hazaras and Farsiwans will vote for Mr. Abdullah and many non-Pashtun supporters of Dr. Rassul will support Dr. Abdullah as well and I thing Our Mayesty Mr. Karzai will ask southern Pashtuns as well to vote for Dr. Abdullah, although at the end everyone will vote for himself. Remember, that around 35% of A-supporters could not vote for their candidate due ''shortage'' of ballots. Around 50% of Pashtuns, Hazaras, Uzbeks, Balochis and Farsiwans have the right to vote. However, I don´t think that the Pashtun voters will increase that much because now it´s the warm seasons for Taliban and they will come out like cockroaches. Our regions will be destabilized and people will kept home. It´s better to make negotiations will all sides, specially with Mr. Abdullah who is leading. It´s safer and if Mr. Abdullah wins the race in the second round by his own power he will be again independent and dangerous for Afghanistan´s unity since many Dr. Ghani supporters will join Taliban or even leave Afghanistan due the expected ethnic war.

[Al-Afghani]

However, I don´t think that the Pashtun voters will increase that much because now it´s the warm seasons for Taliban and they will come out like cockroaches. Our regions will be destabilized and people will kept home.

This is a very good observation. The run off election will be held in late May, well into the fighting season.