Poll: Will the Taliban regain power after the US "leaves"?

[Bengal_Tiger]

The US has claimed that it will be "leaving" Afghanistan this year. I say "leaving" in speech marks because they will still be in the country with a military presence of thousands if not more than ten thousand soldiers, a sizeable number.

However my question is after they "leave" will the Taliban regain power?

By regain "power", I mean they take control of the capital city Kabul and other parts. However in most countries once you take the capital you are regarded as controlling the country or the prime authority in it.

1. Yes, the Taliban will regain power.

2. Yes, but it won't be pure Taliban but a coalition of Pashtun tribes with an "Islamist" flavour to them.

3. No, the Afghan national government is capable of defending Kabul from them.


4. Something else.


5. Don't know.


I really don't know. A few weeks ago I thought the Kabul government was very weak and totally dependent on the US. I totally admit I know very little about Afghanistan. However after having done some reading as well as reading comments on different online fora, I think that the Kabul government is not as weak as I thought it was.


Options 1 and 2 exist because in addition to the Mullah Omar run Taliban who had a Pakistani origin to them in that they were products of Deobandi theological schools in Pakistan there are other Pashtun "Islamist" (a term I dislike but for practical purposes use) groups the main one obviously being Hekmatyar.

As I said I know very little about Afghanistan so am eager to learn from members here.


[MENTION=17960]Herat[/MENTION] [MENTION=17579]Loy Afghanistan[/MENTION] [MENTION=4551]hamid954[/MENTION] [MENTION=5723]Kushan Prince[/MENTION]

[Bengal_Tiger]

So far only one vote, 1 for "NO"

Don't know who that was.

I haven't voted yet, but if I did at this moment it would simply be "I don't know".


[MENTION=17960]Herat[/MENTION]

[Kushan Prince]

It was me. I don't think the tailban will come back because the afghan police and army have improved their strength both in numbers and artillery so more police men means a bigger threat for the taliban.

Just my opinion though.

[HalloIsBack]

It was me. I don't think the tailban will come back because the afghan police and army have improved their strength both in numbers and artillery so more police men means a bigger threat for the taliban.

Just my opinion though.

they don't earn enough money
corruption is common in afghanistan
who knows they can switch sides

[Al-Afghani]

Several options:

1) civil war with the possibility of (soft) partitioning.

2) we will be forced to come to terms with pakistan as our master, something which the Taliban has already agreed on. Afghanistan becomes a (de facto) fifth province of the pakis. I base this on:
- recent history: the lifespan of anti Pakistani governments was always very short.
- demographics: Pashtuns live on both sides of the Durand line and will help each other fight the TajiksUzbeksHazara.

3) with international aid the government has a fighting chance. They will control the cities, their periphery, and the main roads that connect them. The border with Pakistan will stay absolutely lawless.

[Bengal_Tiger]

It was me. I don't think the tailban will come back because the afghan police and army have improved their strength both in numbers and artillery so more police men means a bigger threat for the taliban.

Just my opinion though.

Thanks Kushan.

As I said I really don't know.

However would I be right in saying that the difference between now and the first Taliban capture of power is that the first time there was no effective government in Kabul, and now the national government is much stronger?

[Kushan Prince]

Thanks Kushan.

As I said I really don't know.

However would I be right in saying that the difference between now and the first Taliban capture of power is that the first time there was no effective government in Kabul, and now the national government is much stronger?

Yes maybe. The reason why the taliban ever took over easily was because of ethnic quarrels in the country for control of the government and the failed rabbani regime which was weak. I certainly believe the U.S. installed karzai regime definitely strengthened the national government and aren't as dependant as before. Honestly, Afghanistan can't always rely on other countries to lead them and be spoon fed in every single step of the way. The Afghan government is going to have to deal with eradicating or making peace with the taliban on their own.

[Bengal_Tiger]

Several options:

1) civil war with the possibility of (soft) partitioning.

2) we will be forced to come to terms with pakistan as our master, something which the Taliban has already agreed on. Afghanistan becomes a (de facto) fifth province of the pakis. I base this on:
- recent history: the lifespan of anti Pakistani governments was always very short.
- demographics: Pashtuns live on both sides of the Durand line and will help each other fight the TajiksUzbeksHazara.

3) with international aid the government has a fighting chance. They will control the cities, their periphery, and the main roads that connect them. The border with Pakistan will stay absolutely lawless.

1. Wasn't option 1 and 3 (you wrote above) what was happening in Afghanistan before the US invasion in 9/11?

That is to say, the Taliban controlled Kabul and other areas, but "Northern alliance" (as far as I know that only formed in to being post 9/11) groups ruled the north?


2. Pakistan is a weak state struggling to survive.

a: However if there was Pakistani-proxy rule, it might mean the end of the Baloch insurgency. The Baloch insurgency is the only real threat to Pakistan's unity, as the TTP and Pakistani Pashtuns in general are loyal to the state of Pakistan.

The TTP say they will fight against India for Pakistan but want to implement their pseudo-"shariah" in Pakistan. Pakistani Pashtuns are emotional people who are easily brainwashed in to loving Pakistan.


b: On the other hand I don't think it's good for Pakistan as all the problems of Afghanistan will have an effect on Pakistan itself, which as we've seen in the past few years have been quite severe.


If they take control they may also have to compromise with the Iranians and even the Turks on spheres of influence.

The Iranians will back the Shias including the Hazara, and fellow Farsi-speaking Tajiks.

The Turks will support Dostum and the Uzbeks (and Mongoloid Hazaras).


In other words:

Pakistan "backs" Pashtuns
Iran backs Tajiks & Hazaras
Turkey backs Uzbeks & Hazaras


Soft-partition with Pakistani-backed predominantly Pashtun "Islamist" government in Kabul. A dysfunctional and divided state which does not progress as opposed to the current national government in Kabul which attempts to be multi-ethnic, create a viable state and aims to progress the country economically and socially.

I have a lot of sympathy with Afghans because Pakistan is also trying to weaken Bangladesh e.g. create tension between us and India (which does have its flaws) using their proxy, the Jamaat e Islami and even the BNP (no.2 party in Bangladesh).

So we have a similar situation, though Bangladesh is not affected by war.


One thing I will say is I do not think that Afghanistan will formally separate or split as Yugoslavia, USSR, Czechoslovakia did. Why? From the little I know and speaking to Afghans, though they have divisions they generally feel loyal to the concept of a united Afghanistan.

[khushal]

The Taliban have already taken areas where US forces have left in rural Afghanistan. In other areas, local police have made agreements with local Taliban.

[Da Bannu Mazdigar]

On Topic:

No Taliban won't come into power though as long as their is no civil war.

Also

Pakistan doesnt has the capability to either divide or anything else to do to Afghanistan.Hundred of ISI spy can't really control a huge country.ISI or Pakistan is given too much credit while in reality the case is quite different

Afghanistan should remain so as it is,To Afghanistan pashtuns,the tajiks/Uzbeks should be closer than pashtun taliban's.

Pakistan in such situation would only want to fence the border with Afghanistan irrespective of the cost.

[Da Bannu Mazdigar]

Though for the moment,

If a deal can be signed between Taliban's and the afghan govt.Would be better for afghanistan.

[randolph85]

The situation will probably remain the same as it is today with the Talibs having a presence but not controlling anything vital and the government maintaining control of main cities and towns and being on the defensive in more rural areas. Its not that the afg government is strong, its just that they are stronger than the Taliban and have financial support from the rest of the world. The only way the balance could tip would be if there were to be a major shakeup in the power structure like a coup or something but that is unlikely.

[Bengal_Tiger]

The situation will probably remain the same as it is today with the Talibs having a presence but not controlling anything vital and the government maintaining control of main cities and towns and being on the defensive in more rural areas. Its not that the afg government is strong, its just that they are stronger than the Taliban and have financial support from the rest of the world. The only way the balance could tip would be if there were to be a major shakeup in the power structure like a coup or something but that is unlikely.

The longer and longer the national government in Kabul remains in power, by the very fact of its continued existence, the Taliban become weaker and weaker.

The Taliban are able to gain power in a country with low HDI (Human Development Index) i.e. poverty, lack of education.

The more and more people in cities especially females receive education, develop civic organizations the less and less likelihood there is of the backwards Taliban coming to power.

Already many are saying the fact that the Kabul government held nation-wide elections which on the whole went well and was not able to be totally destabilized by the Taliban is a clear sign of the Taliban's decrease in power. Some people even say - perhaps an exaggeration - it is clear sign the Taliban will never come to power again.

[Shah-i-Kot]

Well, they already have regained power in most of Afghanistan.
Outside of Kabul, Herat, Mazar, and the most of the North, the Afghan insurgency retains control of the Southern, Central, and Eastern Afghanistan.

The Lt. Davis Report of 2012 confirms this, and this report was published before US/NATO withdrawal began

http://www.armedforcesjournal.com/truth-lies-and-afghanistan/

Whether the US/NATO wants to stay or not is not the issue, its whether Pakistan military continues to give NATO supply routes to Afghanistan. Without the Pakistani NATO routes, the US/NATO can not stay for a limited mission. This issue was a sticking point back in 2012 when NATO sought reopening of the supply routes. Pakistan intends to close the NATO supply route in 2015. http://www.startribune.com/world/164524536.html


With the Nawaz government taking primacy over the Pakistani military, and pursuing peace talks with the Pakistan insurgency, its anyone guess what the results of the talks will be.

[vinyard80]

Best way to reach peace in afghanistan would be this: peace talks between USA-NA and Taliban-Pakistan. Power sharing agreement. Cede most of eastern and southern provinces to taliban. Set up a federal system.

Since USA don't want peace in Afghanistan what is going to happen is this: in few months civil war. Taliban will take over most of pashtun provinces in south and east. Partition de facto of our country.