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Fahim’s death is Taliban’s gain
By M K Bhadrakumar – March 12, 2014
When a war gets protracted, it reroutes the trajectory of the life of its commanders. An instance that stood out in past history was of the then US defence secretary Robert McNamara who ended up as the most famous dissident of the Vietnam War. The Afghan Vice-President Mohammed Fahim who died on Sunday is another such case.
I first met him in Panjshir Valley circa 1993 while on a mission to establish contact with the Afghan Mujahideen leaders. Fahim was an aide to the late Ahmed Shah Massoud at that time, in charge of intelligence and the military operations.
Unlike ‘Commander’ Massoud’s other key aides whom I came across — Yunus Qanooni (in charge of ’supplies’), late Dr. Abdur Rahman (ace negotiator and back room dealer who was later brutally killed) and Dr. Abdullah (in charge of PR ) — Fahim stood out as the quintessential military man already with a formidable reputation for violence.
Fahim became the natural inheritor of Massoud’s militia and war equipment. With his intelligence background and shadowy past — it was even rumored that he once served in the dreaded KHAD during the communist rule — Fahim shied away from contacts with foreigners.
But following the US invasion in 2001, the Americans needed him as the point person in Hamid Karzai’s government on military affairs and as his political career began, his metamorphosis from being a ruthless practitioner of coercion and violence to a successful, enormously wealthy businessman-cum-politician also happened.
The big break came in 2009 when Karzai picked him as vice-presidential candidate in the 2009 poll. Fahim gave rock-like support to Karzai, which enabled the latter to defeat the US plans to have him replaced as president. Fahim never looked back. All the covert campaign by the US through the Human Rights Watch to defame him as ‘war criminal’ came to nought.
Fahim’s departure has serious repercussions. On the political side, Karzai’s government loses the balance in ethnic representation. And it’s happening at a critical juncture when a delicate transition of power is due by June-July.
Fahim’s weighty presence had ensured that Tajiks were visibly well-represented in the power structure. Besides, there is no ‘Panjshiri’ who can easily step into the void Fahim has left.
Fahim never showed explicit preference for any of the candidates in the fray for the presidential poll on April 5. It stands to reason he might have favored Abdullah, but one cannot be sure because the ‘Panjshiris’ are a divided house today.
Fahim’s death constitutes a serious blow for India. On the contrary, Pakistani agencies will heave a sigh of relief. Again, unlike the other ‘Panjshiris’, Fahim levelled with Uzbek leader Rashid Dostum. At a time when Dostum is probing his future politico-military options in the post-2014 scenario — he paid unpublicized visits to some Central Asian capitals and Delhi last month — this would have implications.
The main thing to watch will be the impact of Fahim’s departure on the security front. He held together the Tajik forces, which are the mainstay of the Afghan army. There isn’t anyone in sight who can play that role. The advantage goes to the Taliban, therefore, if they indeed have a secret plan to push for a takeover in Kabul by force. Fahim’s death calls attention to the extreme fragility of the Afghan situation. The kaleidoscope has shifted and things can’t be the same again.
By M K Bhadrakumar – March 12, 2014
When a war gets protracted, it reroutes the trajectory of the life of its commanders. An instance that stood out in past history was of the then US defence secretary Robert McNamara who ended up as the most famous dissident of the Vietnam War. The Afghan Vice-President Mohammed Fahim who died on Sunday is another such case.
I first met him in Panjshir Valley circa 1993 while on a mission to establish contact with the Afghan Mujahideen leaders. Fahim was an aide to the late Ahmed Shah Massoud at that time, in charge of intelligence and the military operations.
Unlike ‘Commander’ Massoud’s other key aides whom I came across — Yunus Qanooni (in charge of ’supplies’), late Dr. Abdur Rahman (ace negotiator and back room dealer who was later brutally killed) and Dr. Abdullah (in charge of PR ) — Fahim stood out as the quintessential military man already with a formidable reputation for violence.
Fahim became the natural inheritor of Massoud’s militia and war equipment. With his intelligence background and shadowy past — it was even rumored that he once served in the dreaded KHAD during the communist rule — Fahim shied away from contacts with foreigners.
But following the US invasion in 2001, the Americans needed him as the point person in Hamid Karzai’s government on military affairs and as his political career began, his metamorphosis from being a ruthless practitioner of coercion and violence to a successful, enormously wealthy businessman-cum-politician also happened.
The big break came in 2009 when Karzai picked him as vice-presidential candidate in the 2009 poll. Fahim gave rock-like support to Karzai, which enabled the latter to defeat the US plans to have him replaced as president. Fahim never looked back. All the covert campaign by the US through the Human Rights Watch to defame him as ‘war criminal’ came to nought.
Fahim’s departure has serious repercussions. On the political side, Karzai’s government loses the balance in ethnic representation. And it’s happening at a critical juncture when a delicate transition of power is due by June-July.
Fahim’s weighty presence had ensured that Tajiks were visibly well-represented in the power structure. Besides, there is no ‘Panjshiri’ who can easily step into the void Fahim has left.
Fahim never showed explicit preference for any of the candidates in the fray for the presidential poll on April 5. It stands to reason he might have favored Abdullah, but one cannot be sure because the ‘Panjshiris’ are a divided house today.
Fahim’s death constitutes a serious blow for India. On the contrary, Pakistani agencies will heave a sigh of relief. Again, unlike the other ‘Panjshiris’, Fahim levelled with Uzbek leader Rashid Dostum. At a time when Dostum is probing his future politico-military options in the post-2014 scenario — he paid unpublicized visits to some Central Asian capitals and Delhi last month — this would have implications.
The main thing to watch will be the impact of Fahim’s departure on the security front. He held together the Tajik forces, which are the mainstay of the Afghan army. There isn’t anyone in sight who can play that role. The advantage goes to the Taliban, therefore, if they indeed have a secret plan to push for a takeover in Kabul by force. Fahim’s death calls attention to the extreme fragility of the Afghan situation. The kaleidoscope has shifted and things can’t be the same again.
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