Poll: Afghans against US/NATO

[Shah-i-Kot]

A country gripped by fear: Survey finds majority of Afghans afraid of US troops, voting - World News


A country gripped by fear: Survey finds majority of Afghans afraid of US troops, voting




By Aarne Heikkila and Alexander Smith, NBC News
KABUL, Afghanistan – More than three out of four Afghans live in fear of the U.S. troops sent to liberate their country from the Taliban, according to a survey released Thursday.
The annual poll was conducted by the Asia Foundation, a non-profit international development group. It also found that while an increasing number of Afghan citizens feel that their country is heading in the right direction, more than half of those questioned said they were afraid to exercise basic democratic rights such as voting and attending peaceful protests.

About 46,000 U.S. troops remain in the country more than 12 years after the invasion triggered by the 9/11 attacks, making Afghanistan the longest conflict in U.S. history.


And while President George W. Bush vowed in 2001 that "the oppressed people of Afghanistan will know the generosity of America and our allies," the survey suggests that vision has failed to materialize despite the hundreds of billions of dollars spent in the country.
Some 77 percent of respondents said they would "be afraid when encountering international forces."
Respondents were far more confident in their dealings with the Afghan National Police and Afghan National Army. Almost nine-in-ten said the NATO-trained ANA was "honest and fair with the Afghan people" and helped "improve security," while 72 percent felt the same about the police.
Michael Keating, a senior consulting fellow of the Asia program at London's Chatham House think tank, said it was "not that surprising" that many Afghans were wary of coming face-to-face with troops.
"It's not a very relaxing experience," he said. However, Keating also pointed out that Afghans in some parts of the country "do not want [Western forces] to leave."
The Asia Foundation conducted face-to-face interviews with a total of 9,200 Afghans, with respondents living in all of the country's 34 provinces. The San Francisco-based organization has carried out the survey annually since 2004.
According to the poll, 59 percent of respondents said they would "experience some level of fear" when voting in an election. The Taliban has targeted polling stations in recent years. The country will elect a new president in April.
But Geeta, a 22-year-old teacher in Sheberghan Jawzjan, said she believed the ballot box was crucial to "bring a change" to Afghanistan.
"Our country is in need of educated and honest leaders. And in order to bring a person of the mentioned qualities into power, I voted for the candidate of my choice," she told NBC News. "I have also encouraged all my friends to go to polls and vote."
A clear majority of respondents – 68 percent – said they would be afraid to participate in a peaceful demonstration.
Geeta said she had demonstrated to remove a local governor who was not living up to some residents' expectations.
"I'd like to see more of these peaceful demonstrations in the future because I think it is good for our country," she added.



Attaullah, a 26-year-old administrator at a hospital in Kabul, said he did not agree with protests because they have the potential to be hijacked by other causes.
"Often demonstrations are planned out for a purpose and then it results in something else very bad that one can never expect," he said.
The survey highlighted decreased support for "armed opposition groups" such as the Taliban, with 35 percent of people saying they had a little or a lot of sympathy for them. That's a drop from 56 percent in 2009.
On the role of women in society, 90 percent of Afghans polled said they agree with equal rights, but just 54 percent said state courts treat women and men equally.
More than three-quarters of respondents said corruption remained a problem in the country as a whole. This is the highest level since the Asia Foundation's 2006 survey.
Farhad Amiri, who owns a small business selling carpets and antiques in Kabul, said corruption has become endemic.


"In Afghanistan more than 90 percent of our dealings involve corruption," the 40-year-old said. "If you want to get your things done in a governmental department you will have to bribe them. If you don't bribe them, your work will either be delayed or they will create problems for you."But the majority of Afghans polled – 57 percent – believed their country was heading in the right direction, up from 46 percent in 2011 and 52 percent in 2012.









The survey has been released as Afghanistan remains locked in negotiations with the U.S. about the bilateral security agreement which will shape America's military presence in the country after 2014.

Without an agreement, the U.S. could withdraw all its troops and leave the Afghan administration, currently led by President Hamid Karzai, to fight the Taliban alone.
More than 2,100 American troops have died and almost 20,000 have been wounded during the conflict, according to the Department of Defense.

[Badlun]

A country gripped by fear: Survey finds majority of Afghans afraid of US troops, voting - World News


A country gripped by fear: Survey finds majority of Afghans afraid of US troops, voting




By Aarne Heikkila and Alexander Smith, NBC News
KABUL, Afghanistan – More than three out of four Afghans live in fear of the U.S. troops sent to liberate their country from the Taliban, according to a survey released Thursday.
The annual poll was conducted by the Asia Foundation, a non-profit international development group. It also found that while an increasing number of Afghan citizens feel that their country is heading in the right direction, more than half of those questioned said they were afraid to exercise basic democratic rights such as voting and attending peaceful protests.

About 46,000 U.S. troops remain in the country more than 12 years after the invasion triggered by the 9/11 attacks, making Afghanistan the longest conflict in U.S. history.


And while President George W. Bush vowed in 2001 that "the oppressed people of Afghanistan will know the generosity of America and our allies," the survey suggests that vision has failed to materialize despite the hundreds of billions of dollars spent in the country.
Some 77 percent of respondents said they would "be afraid when encountering international forces."
Respondents were far more confident in their dealings with the Afghan National Police and Afghan National Army. Almost nine-in-ten said the NATO-trained ANA was "honest and fair with the Afghan people" and helped "improve security," while 72 percent felt the same about the police.
Michael Keating, a senior consulting fellow of the Asia program at London's Chatham House think tank, said it was "not that surprising" that many Afghans were wary of coming face-to-face with troops.
"It's not a very relaxing experience," he said. However, Keating also pointed out that Afghans in some parts of the country "do not want [Western forces] to leave."
The Asia Foundation conducted face-to-face interviews with a total of 9,200 Afghans, with respondents living in all of the country's 34 provinces. The San Francisco-based organization has carried out the survey annually since 2004.
According to the poll, 59 percent of respondents said they would "experience some level of fear" when voting in an election. The Taliban has targeted polling stations in recent years. The country will elect a new president in April.
But Geeta, a 22-year-old teacher in Sheberghan Jawzjan, said she believed the ballot box was crucial to "bring a change" to Afghanistan.
"Our country is in need of educated and honest leaders. And in order to bring a person of the mentioned qualities into power, I voted for the candidate of my choice," she told NBC News. "I have also encouraged all my friends to go to polls and vote."
A clear majority of respondents – 68 percent – said they would be afraid to participate in a peaceful demonstration.
Geeta said she had demonstrated to remove a local governor who was not living up to some residents' expectations.
"I'd like to see more of these peaceful demonstrations in the future because I think it is good for our country," she added.



Attaullah, a 26-year-old administrator at a hospital in Kabul, said he did not agree with protests because they have the potential to be hijacked by other causes.
"Often demonstrations are planned out for a purpose and then it results in something else very bad that one can never expect," he said.
The survey highlighted decreased support for "armed opposition groups" such as the Taliban, with 35 percent of people saying they had a little or a lot of sympathy for them. That's a drop from 56 percent in 2009.
On the role of women in society, 90 percent of Afghans polled said they agree with equal rights, but just 54 percent said state courts treat women and men equally.
More than three-quarters of respondents said corruption remained a problem in the country as a whole. This is the highest level since the Asia Foundation's 2006 survey.
Farhad Amiri, who owns a small business selling carpets and antiques in Kabul, said corruption has become endemic.


"In Afghanistan more than 90 percent of our dealings involve corruption," the 40-year-old said. "If you want to get your things done in a governmental department you will have to bribe them. If you don't bribe them, your work will either be delayed or they will create problems for you."But the majority of Afghans polled – 57 percent – believed their country was heading in the right direction, up from 46 percent in 2011 and 52 percent in 2012.









The survey has been released as Afghanistan remains locked in negotiations with the U.S. about the bilateral security agreement which will shape America's military presence in the country after 2014.

Without an agreement, the U.S. could withdraw all its troops and leave the Afghan administration, currently led by President Hamid Karzai, to fight the Taliban alone.
More than 2,100 American troops have died and almost 20,000 have been wounded during the conflict, according to the Department of Defense.

Many good news in the survey which is highlighted above. Thanks for sharing.

[Khilji]

thx for sharing yara

[Badlun]

It means popularity of Taliban is decreasing even amongst Pashtuns as now it is 35% with more or little sympathy as compared to 56% in 2009.

Amongst non Pashtuns it was already 0%. I have yet to see a non Pashtun active Talib.

[randolph85]

the taliban have more support from the afghan people than obama does from the american people lol

[Da Bannu Mazdigar]

the taliban have more support from the afghan people than obama does from the american people lol

And it is extremely sad.

how can one support the talibans?i mean they have killed thousand of afghan innocent people.

I would recommand you to read
"
Dialogue but with whom" by altaf hussain

[randolph85]

And it is extremely sad.

how can one support the talibans?i mean they have killed thousand of afghan innocent people.

I would recommand you to read
"
Dialogue but with whom" by altaf hussain

i recommend you stop reading anything by that man.

[BarakzaiAbdali]

Many good news in the survey which is highlighted above. Thanks for sharing.

Very weak analysis again Badlun Saheb. Once again, please learn to go to primary evidence sources and look at sub sections.

http://asiafoundation.org/resources/pdfs/2013AfghanSurvey.pdf

Interestingly enough, a sizable chunk of the Pashtun ethnic group has a different take when extracted out from the confounding action of the other groups being thrown into the Pan Afghan Ethnicities analysis:

"Pashtuns are significantly more likely to have some sympathy for the armed opposition (42%) compared to other ethnic groups. Urban respondents (71%) are significantly more likely to have no sympathy at all compared to rural respondents (61%)..."

This is further supported by the provincial breakdown:

"The provinces with the lowest percentage of respondents who say they have
a lot of sympathy for AOGs are Badakshan and Panjshir (less than 1%). Provinces with the highest percentage of respondents with a lot of sympathy include Kandahar, Zabul, Uruzgan, Daikundi, Paktika, Logar, Wardak, and Laghman (20-44%)."

Regarding the ANA subdata:

"Although overall, agreement was consistently high across all provinces, urban
respondents (79%) are significantly30 more likely to say they are confident in both the ANA and ANP (i.e., likely to somewhat or strongly agree with all five of the statements in Fig. 3.7 above) than rural respondents (65%). Among ethnic groups, Pashtuns are significantly more likely to disagree with these statements than other ethnic groups, and regionally, respondents living in the South East region are the most likely to disagree."

Furthermore, perceptions are very much along the classic lines of what F Scott Fitzgerald wrote when he talked about the
"poor getting poorer and the rich getting richer."

"Respondents from poorer households are significantly more likely to report being economically better off during the post-Taliban era, and wealthier respondents are significantly more likely to report having been better off during the Taliban era

Regarding governmental institutions on the local level:
"The most noteworthy finding in the responses to this question is that the local informal justice system is considered by respondents to be more fair, trustworthy, effective, efficient, and in line with local norms and values than the formal state courts."

Generally, one important point regarding the accuracy of surveys and even publicly stating one's views can be based on this ominous statement from the report:

"Regarding freedom of assembly, 68% of respondents expressed fear about participating in a peaceful demonstration. On average, women are 27% more likely to be afraid to participate in a demonstration than men, even after accounting for regional differences. Interestingly, respondents who earn more
money are more likely to be afraid to participate in peaceful demonstrations than those who earn less, and Pashtuns are more likely to report a lot of fear compared to Hazaras, Tajiks, and Uzbeks. Fewer respondents in the South West region say they would fear participating in a peaceful demonstration this year (72%), compared to last year (81%). However, there were no significant differences between 2012 and 2013 on this question for any other regions. The main reasons why respondents are likely to express fear of participating in a peaceful demonstration are: fear of foreign forces, fear of travel, fear of the ANP, and lastly fear of the ANA. For example, on average, a respondent who is afraid of foreign forces is 73%95 more likely to be afraid of participating in a demonstration than someone who isn’t afraid of foreign forces. This is independentof the effect of age, gender, and geographic region."

Earlier on in the report a question is posed to partipants of whether they viewed Taliban and militants as Afghans or Pakistanis etc (i.e. the common charge leveled here by unrealistic PF participants that the Taliban are all Panjabies and Arabs dressed up as Pashtuns) is answered that only 5% view them as supported by Pakistan in any way. Foreign forces are then undeniably meaning the US/NATO in the above statement.

Then of course there is the survey's review of separation of church and state that finds conflicting information and unexpected results (urban supporting religious involvement more than rural - yet majorities are in both sectors):

"The survey examined public opinion about the involvement of religious leaders in government decision-making. Respondents were asked whether they agree more with the idea that politics and religion should be mixed (i.e., that local religious leaders should be regularly consulted on problems facing an area), or that politics and religion should not mix. More than half (58%) of respondents say that religion and politics should mix, while just over a third (38%) say that politics and religion should not mix. Interestingly, there is a sizeable urban-rural difference in the responses to this question; 68% of urban respondents, but only 55% of rural respondents, agree that politics and religion should mix. There were no significant gender differences in the responses to this question."

Ethnic groups wise the breakdown is even more interesting and unexpected:

"In addition, there are noticeable variations among ethnic groups’ views on this issue. Tajik respondents were most likely to say that politics and religion should mix (63%), followed by Hazaras (59%) and Uzbeks (57%). Pashtun respondents (54%) were the least in agreement with the statement that
politics and religion should be mixed."

So what does this amount to? Well Robert Pape's central thesis about the presence of outside/ISAF force movements finds even more validation here in that despite the majority of Pashtuns have a religious governance bent (yet being the least likely ethnic group to support it) they are still produce sizable support for the insurgency... showing that religion is but a small part of all of the mix of things and that the classic pattern of human history is showing that religion is merely the vehicle for an indigenous people bristling at outsider presence.

The other important points are that Pashtuns appear to voice fear to being outspoken with respect to anti governmental protests due to the presence of foreign forces.

And the proof of the urban rural divide is even more stark which is hard for Pashtuns since the majority live in rural centers.

[BarakzaiAbdali]

Another interesting thing is that when you look at the Asia Foundation surveys that have been ongoing annually since 2009, that support for the militancy coincides with the highest troop surge numbers... once again validating BOTH Scheuer and Pape that it is outsider presence and military excursions that excite a violent response and radicalization of the populace. The natural tendency of the populace is to begin to internally reflect on a more moderate approach to life once that outside presence is removed.

[Pakwatan]

Another interesting thing is that when you look at the Asia Foundation surveys that have been ongoing annually since 2009, that support for the militancy coincides with the highest troop surge numbers... once again validating BOTH Scheuer and Pape that it is outsider presence and military excursions that excite a violent response and radicalization of the populace. The natural tendency of the populace is to begin to internally reflect on a more moderate approach to life once that outside presence is removed.

I think in the case of Afghanistan, a government that ignores the religious clergy is bound to fail. Afghanistan, like Pakistan is very religious and conservative society. If you want the people's support, you have to justify the actions with religious guidance. Many things Afghans and Pakistanis are against are not against Islam, but culturally motivated, and there is a cultural bias.

Afghanistan as a new nation in the twenty-first century, is very young, and being held hostage by corrupt officials, and corrupt clergy. Pakistan is in the same position, but has been for over 60 years. I believe education without bias is the only solution for both countries.
In an idealistic sense, having NATO in your homeland is a dishonor. But, there is nothing you can do to stop this. So what choices do you have left? Resist them, but also learn from them. Foreign policy is all about maximizing benefits for your nation.

The younger generation of Muslims, think,"oh Allah swt will take care of me, so I have no worries". This is ignorance.

People in Afghanistan, and especially Pakistan need to start working hard, and being dedicated to schooling/education/knowledge.

[Shah-i-Kot]

A note about this poll. The way questions were framed was very biased. For example, instead of asking Afghans if they are opposed to the US/NATO presence, they asked Afghans if they are afraid of US/NATO troops. The reason the Asia Foundation (a US organization I think) did this is for psy ops. What this reveals is that they want to frame the results in such a way where they can give US/NATO a claim of victory by saying Afghans are afraid of US/NATO. This would help cloak the withdrawal under a banner of victory. Morbid right? but this is the Western thought of mind which abides by Clausewitz ignorance instead of Sun Tzu's wisdom.

They should have also asked US/NATO troops if they are afraid of being posted in Afghanistan. That would also would have been informative, for the American population who votes.

Asia Foundation has usually conducted polls in Kabul and Tajik/Hazara/Uzbek populated areas- places which are safe and not the site of conflict. While there are some truths in these results, Consider it in general to not be that representative because Pashtuns have to a large extent been left out of this.

Had they asked if Afghans are opposed to the US/NATO presence- the results would have been over 95%. Thats why they did not ask it, and chose to give a FAILED US/NATO war some measure of success. Understand what is said between the lines.

[Badlun]

Dr Saib
I did not do any analysis. I just copied some parts of the analysis.

Again it confirms that only Pashtuns are suffering while non Pashtuns are at peace. Do you think these about 15 millions non Pashtuns in Afghanistan are traitors. They are not true Afghans because of not harboring Taliban and not against NATO?

[BarakzaiAbdali]

Dr Saib
I did not do any analysis. I just copied some parts of the analysis.

Again it confirms that only Pashtuns are suffering while non Pashtuns are at peace. Do you think these about 15 millions non Pashtuns in Afghanistan are traitors. They are not true Afghans because of not harboring Taliban and not against NATO?

Cause and effect are only relevant in the context of having a detached analysis of the information.

Problems are not solved by "seeing what you want to see." They are solved by seeing the world as it is.

How people drive a moral imperative forward is by believing ardently in their cause... but that does not necessarily solve problems.

For instance, I was reading today that Newt Gingrich was bashed by a number of whites because he refused to refer to Mandela as a terrorist.

Gingrich responded with pertinent observations about human nature and the action and reaction paradigms we all experience in life.

The people who criticized him want to ignore the nature of the indigenous south africans and the apartheid that the whites were doing there. They simply dismiss Mandela and his cause as terrorism because it suits THEIR fancy.

In this same vein, we collect data for a reason... otherwise why even collect it at all? Why not just say: Hey here is the right thing to do and the right way to go about it because might makes right.

Nowadays, the American people are perhaps the most detached observers since they don't really feel a tangible stake in this war. A number of them have begun to comment that "they don't like us, they don't want us there, etc etc." They make this commentary based on the insider attacks that occur amongst other factors. And in some ways this data coincides with their observations - at least about the involvement of their forces. I personally think it is to their credit that they are able to make this observation despite the media deluge from John Allen et al.

In general, collecting data in the state of war is a strange thing in my belief... after all, who acts on this data? What helpful purpose does it serve for war makers and war breakers? Perhaps none since they are already committed to their point of view. Mayhap the only benefit it provides is that various interest groups (educationalists, industry folks, others) can gauge perceptions of their success.

Your interpretation of how Pashtuns are the losers or the most down trodden doesn't coincide with mine because my view of it is that righteous person is for and by the people's aspirations. Those who would want to do well by the people of the West and Afghanistan would clearly utilize this for detached decision making.

I cannot blame Pashtuns for being who they are if they do not wrong other people. That is, if they have certain traditions and values and want to abide by them - I think such is their right until they internally reflect and decide change must be hand.

I can blame those that hoist guns and force war on the Pashtuns and ignore the very data that they collect if I have to take a moral stance.

[hamid954]

We Afghans want Americans out and Indians in. America is not serious about Afghanistan development and peace they are just using Afghanistan as a base to operate and strategic reasons. Please like my page if you support Afghan-Indian friendship!