can AFG survive economically without USA?

[Kushan Prince]

UPDATE: According to rumors, the BSA signing will by delayed until the elections.

[randolph85]

Hello all,

There are good points raised. To me, the most striking problem is that the opposition to the government does not provide practical solutions. They are full of ideology, propaganda and rhetoric, but little substance.

For example, how will they have an inclusive, pluralistic government? Do you think that once the Americans leave, the Talibs will simply sit at the table with their former rivals and talk it out? Will they accept that some people don't like an "Islamic Emirate"?

Of course not. We all know their war will not end until they capture all of Afghanistan. On the other hand, Karzai has called for Mullah Omar to run for president.

If the Talibs were not as extremist (as they are today), then we would have no need for NATO.

The governments own position does not provide a practical solution. In one sentence the Karzai government says that they don't trust the Americans, that they have failed Afghanistan, and any article of the BSA which doesn't respect Afghan sovereignty is against national interests. In the other sentence they are urging this fake Jirga to accept the BSA while conceding to American demands that makes the concept of national sovereignty a joke.

Blaming the opposition for being against the concept of an inclusive government is a joke considering that this inclusiveness depends on basically a surrender that acknowledges the legitimacy of the foreign occupation. You might as well say the same thing about Rabbani and his Jamiat that rejected an inclusive government on the Taliban terms that they surrender and disarm. At least back then there would of been more dignity considering there was no foreign occupation.

Man you really buy into lip service with your Omar presidency example. This is from the same Karzai who ruined the peace talks because the Taliban raised their flag and used their official name at their peace mission in Qatar, after the biggest potential breakthrough in 12 years of war.

[randolph85]

Why don't you return to Afghanistan and enjoy your freedom and uphold your dignity as a hardcore Akhwani Islamist while eating gross under Mullah Omar's reign instead of that life of indignity coupled with forced or pretended loyalty to the infidel country you think is humiliating Islam?

Come. Give us a demonstration of the dignity you are talking about.

Considering you are pro occupation and anti Islam, why aren't YOU in living in Afghanistan right now? You would make a perfect bacha bazi on one of those foreign bases you love so much.

[Toramana]

So is this what it boils down to? A dare to go to Afghanistan to some how prove/disprove dignity?

Let me give ya an insider tip. There is no dignity. I have seen ALP checkpoint firing blindly into villages, killing children because they were scared. Why were they scared? Because their Hazara district sub governor imported them from Dasht-e Barsht-e to be the "local police" of a Pashtun area. The oldest one was 20 and the youngest 14 (he thinks). Is that dignity? Two brothers were bringing their father his lunch for chakaar and they shot them both dead. I heard their pneumo-decompression hiss through a catheter that only managed to prolong their life long enough to make it to a hospital in Gardez where they succumbed to their wounds. Mind you, ALP was warned against by both the Emirate and Karzai, but Petraeus knew better, and Karzai is cheap. Dignity--I've seen the beleagured countrymen shaken down at 5 checkpoints in 20 miles just to get their apples to market. Is that dignity? I've seen Elders shamed and mocked by soldiers young enough to be their great grand children because that's what happens when you send 18 year olds to war, regardless of their country of origin. If you think there is dignity preserved in the current state, you are grossly misinformed and I urge YOU to go see for yourself.

You are using limited experience with Afghanistan to derive radical conclusions my friend. That is dangerous. If you want to know about real humiliation that Afghans went through, you should cover the entire period from Russian invasion to the over throw of Taleban when Afghans lived as alien refugees in neighbouring countries with an uncertain future. You are exaggerating things as if they are the daily occurrence.

[MostafaM]

Regional autonomy + pooled resources. Make sure not a single western power boot is on Afghan land to dictate to an Afghan leader what is proper and what is not on its own soil. Ensure the proxies in the other istan states are also overturned. This is a long term issue. Forge proper deals from a unified vantage point of these states with Iran as well that basically tells it: we need to coexist even though our values are variant. Pool resources, realize the local cultures though they differ to a great degree are far more amenable to each other than a "chrisitianizing, secular at the barrel end of a gun when it suits it" super power that has a history of dividing, conquering, acquiring territory, and devastating occupied native culture and mores. That is completely logically possible under the right circumstances.

I agree with the above but I didn´t ask for them long-term goals but what to do if the US forces leave Afghanistan next year.
Does anyone really think that Afghanistan will not vanish from the surface of this planet like it did 1992 when the state fell down and gave birth to two major factions, led, equipped and financed by foreign agendas to make Afghanistan a proxy state?

Otherwise, expect a future that is very much like Pakistan's.

I would be very happy if Afghanistan would achieve Pakistan´s current state because it can provide it´s citizens security, education and healtcare to a certain degree and is actually unattackable. Pakistan has made itself a reality although it lacks everything a nation state should have.
Pakistan is the flying bee to everyone who hasn´t grasped the concept fluid mechanics and the role of reduced vortex forming....

And I strongly disagree with the notion above that you may or may not be implying that India neglected 70% of its rural populace so Afghans in the urban centers should feel comfortable overlooking the needs of the rural religious village Afghan for some greater good as well - that they should just plough forward roughshod and impose their values over all with foreign hands.

I didn´t imply what you explained.
I simply said that states have to go through hardship and leaders have to make sacrifices to achieve a bigger goal in the future.

The will of the people is clearly:
security
education
healthcare
prosperity

Only people who´s stomaches are full care about what some historian might write about them in a book some years from now.
Leaders have to go deeper than just avoiding being called "the second Shah Shuja".


The question remains what the alternative will be?
No one wants American soldiers in Afghanistan. But what will happen if they leave NOW?

If America´s policy shift in the Middle East results in having good relations with Iran and it´s backing of India in a coming Indo-Japanese-Chinese conflict will result in either making Pakistan stop it´s brainless policy towards AFG and join the rest of the world OR pushing them deeper into the arms of China-Russia-Shanghai-Cooperation-Council works out, then Afghanistan will be saved in the first case and in big trouble in the second.

As long as Afghanistan cannot maintain a standing army that can defend it´s borders and stops it from falling back into a state of Talibanisation where the soil of this country was used by armed Islamic Movements around the globe to train for their own domestic Jihad, marry Afghan women and abandoning them in Pakistan and behaving not that different than any other occupation forces so far, we need a certain degree of foreign aid and support.

As I said earlier:
we should man up and build that country if we can.
If not we should be silent and/or atleast not backing those who will break down everything to a level where legless goat herderers with superb fighting skills were running ministries but didn´t know what to do in peace times.

[BarakzaiAbdali]

I agree with the above but I didn´t ask for them long-term goals but what to do if the US forces leave Afghanistan next year.

There will be conflict and then the dust will settle. Its completely out of touch with reality to assume that you can get something for nothing. Blood is the price of progress. Jefferson himself noted that the tree of liberty is watered with blood. That is not the quote of an impractical simpleton but a genius who led a revolution and wrote it into being. It cannot be ignored or called trivial.

If they stay and continue to do as they have done globe wide (e.g. Latin America, Africa, Iraq) where they arm and train groups that are open to their aims (refer to the other article I posted documenting non Pashtun dominance of security apparatus) then you are trading a quick death and rebirth for a slow gradual cultural decline and relinquishing of autonomy.

Does anyone really think that Afghanistan will not vanish from the surface of this planet like it did 1992 when the state fell down and gave birth to two major factions, led, equipped and financed by foreign agendas to make Afghanistan a proxy state?

That is a short sighted assessment. You folks keep brandishing a period of 6 to 8 years and hold the single group that bought pacification and security to the country side because these supposed leaders like Mojadidi and the emigres felt comfort trumped actually doing what mattered to save Afghanistan.

Its very unscientific to take a stunted government that was overturned and claim that it could never have progressed or to even compare it with a government that is still failing with the most massive hand out and welfare seen to historical date.

I would be very happy if Afghanistan would achieve Pakistan´s current state because it can provide it´s citizens security, education and healtcare to a certain degree and is actually unattackable. Pakistan has made itself a reality although it lacks everything a nation state should have.

I like you greatly, but I am disappointed Mostafa Khan-e-Khanaan. Pakistan is emblematic, as are the istan states of all that is wrong in that region. It is as if we are watching the same fate that happened to the North American indigenous people and the indigenous people of Latin America right in front of our eyes - and even despite those lessons of history we settle on emulating a corrupt state that is feudal and looks at its citizens as expendable?

Perhaps the US or Israel may not "bargain with terrorists" over single individuals - but they make certain to impart to the world that an overt hair being touched on the head of a single denizen will be rewarded with a thousand pounds of pain. (I know, I know that its hard to reconcile this the fact that they are willing to send thousands of their sons off to die in the war machine for the ends of others - but I think you get what I am saying).


Pakistan is the flying bee to everyone who hasn´t grasped the concept fluid mechanics and the role of reduced vortex forming....

Pakistan and the Arab leaders, as well as the istaan states are perfect examples of history at play. How could they be so imbecilic and so short cited as to not communicate with one another and simply note that irrespective of even religion their regional destiny would be far greater and surpass even Europe if they simply stopped selling themselves.

I didn´t imply what you explained.
I simply said that states have to go through hardship and leaders have to make sacrifices to achieve a bigger goal in the future.


The will of the people is clearly:
security
education
healthcare
prosperity

Only people who´s stomaches are full care about what some historian might write about them in a book some years from now.

This is not about full or empty bellies. Here was a recent case:
http://www.ipsnews.net/2013/10/afgha...not-apologies/

The elder brother of Dagarwal Khan Agha, Malim Said Agha, still cannot understand “how those young boys could be confused with insurgents. They were just kids. The Americans killed innocent people. This was confirmed by the Afghan authorities,” he told IPS.

Read what these people with empty stomachs asked for and tell me how you would answer them?

In addition there were some tribal leaders, the relatives of the five killed boys and “two foreign envoys”, whose name is not known. “The two Americans apologised, admitting they have killed innocent people,” Agha told IPS.
“In front of all the participants they said they made an error,” said Khan. Abdulzai said “the Americans offered their apology in front of the victims’ families and Nangarhar’s authorities.”
All the victims’ relatives this IPS correspondent met said they had received some offers from the “foreign envoys” as a form of ‘compensation’.
“The Americans said they would help us, now and in future,” said Agha. “They did not offer any amount of money, but when we left the palace we found some cars with sacks of food. We all agreed to refuse that offer: we are poor but we do not sell our own blood.”
“Our request is clear,” Khan told IPS. “Give us the pilots of the two helicopters. We will handle them according to our culture, to the Holy Quran and to what the Hadith prescribes. Then, we will give them back to the U.S., saying ‘we are very sorry’, as they did with us.”
“Over the past years the Americans have killed many innocent people, also children and women,” said Agha. “They just say ‘we apologise’. It’s time for them to be accountable for their wrong actions.”

Sounds to me as if my full stomach understands the request being made by Haji Saib very very clearly here. It has nothing to do with security, healthcare, prosperity, etc etc. What it has to do with is autonomy and justice and the clear understanding that those two ingredients are paramount.

Leaders have to go deeper than just avoiding being called "the second Shah Shuja".

History is read and written for reasons. If we choose to ignore it and think we can defy its arc - then we doomed for sure... for that is the very definition of hubris

The question remains what the alternative will be?
No one wants American soldiers in Afghanistan. But what will happen if they leave NOW?

Afghans will solve their own dilemmas, they will deal with one another as they should, and they will learn the hard lessons of how to build a country in a way that no one else can do for you. It took 4 centuries to build the Superpower into what it is... you want immediate solutions to guarantee short term gains when there is not a single example in history that demonstrates or evidences such an approach to work. It took Americans decades and centuries to understand, after bloodshed, that you cannot beat and rape a person based on the color of their skin and you cannot deny them rights and dignity based on their beliefs. They realized after a brutal civil war that internal stability demands some definitive measures and some measure of acceptance and compromise. No one can teach a nation or a people those lessons. They are lessons learned with time and blood.

If America´s policy shift in the Middle East results in having good relations with Iran and it´s backing of India in a coming Indo-Japanese-Chinese conflict will result in either making Pakistan stop it´s brainless policy towards AFG and join the rest of the world OR pushing them deeper into the arms of China-Russia-Shanghai-Cooperation-Council works out, then Afghanistan will be saved in the first case and in big trouble in the second.

Chess games being played by these people will stop the moment they see that the costs outweigh the benefits. No one should gamble with Afghan autonomy based on such predictions of super triumverates etc etc.

As long as Afghanistan cannot maintain a standing army that can defend it´s borders and stops it from falling back into a state of Talibanisation where the soil of this country was used by armed Islamic Movements around the globe to train for their own domestic Jihad, marry Afghan women and abandoning them in Pakistan and behaving not that different than any other occupation forces so far, we need a certain degree of foreign aid and support.

The Afghans of the villages and the countryside that I saw, knew and traveled with may not have agreed with all the measures and attitudes of said parties but they certainly did not feel imposed upon in such ways except if they were urbanites. Kawun Kakar himself has noted this time and again.

Also, the root source analysis of why those very people made their way there in the initial has to be discussed. The very same powers trying to usurp Afghan independence are the very same powers that backed tyrannies in the nation states that these men derived from. Had the game not been played there either and fair trade and natural resources been bought at the market value or on bargain - these characters would never have found the safe haven in the first place. Also, the very same people (Rabbani, Mojadidi, etc) who were in power before the black turbaned ones and now sit in the Jirga extended their hands to the leadership of said unsavory parties. If anything blame the Sayyaf types and others that sit in the room with Hamida Bibi.

As I said earlier:
we should man up and build that country if we can.
If not we should be silent and/or atleast not backing those who will break down everything to a level where legless goat herderers with superb fighting skills were running ministries but didn´t know what to do in peace times.

Rome was not built in a day dear friend. Our forefathers, your and mine were likely goat herders long ago. Now a goat herder has a descendent who is a highly educated chemical engineer, and you did that because you understood the stakes - not because a white guy with a gun in his hand told you how to treat your sister or how to live your life.

x

[Wowra]

You are using limited experience with Afghanistan to derive radical conclusions my friend. That is dangerous. If you want to know about real humiliation that Afghans went through, you should cover the entire period from Russian invasion to the over throw of Taleban when Afghans lived as alien refugees in neighbouring countries with an uncertain future. You are exaggerating things as if they are the daily occurrence.

The limitation of my experience at least shapes my view of solution, whereas you formulate ideas for people you couldn't give a **** about in a vacuum with likely no recent frame of reference. As for the consistency of my claims, I down-played the occurrence and specifics. But it is easier to assume the ideas that you champion are shaping the land into a utopia; however, Afghanistan doesn't need cheerleaders right now, it needs solutions--and there's no amount of your magical thinking that may change that any more than a BSA would help.

And my "radical" ideas are simply a return to the tribal structure that the majority of Afghanistan already understands and utilizes. If it were so radical, it wouldn't have been in use for centuries... what is radical is the drastic westernization of a State ill-prepared for the undertaking and lacking a population base beyond urban centers that desire such a condition that will beholden its people to the financial sponsors of this veritable dream land.

[Tiger Khan]

I think Afghanistan has enough natural resources to survive and even thrive. if given peace and left alone..

[Tiger Khan]

salam,

i was discussing this with some relatives of mine, but i need some good/logical/academical reasons/answers:

1- CAN afghanistan survice economically, without the USA? How? Who is going to fund the schools, hospitals, constructions, security forces (without which the country would turn into an anarchy), ....millions of people work in offices that r funded by US dollars. Will the afghan economy collapse again, and will thousands starve to death and become refugees in Pak and Iran, like during the Taliban? do any of the anti-USA people have an economic policy, which we can look at and analyse?

2- What if another decade long civil war breaks out? looting, murder, raping etc, will become the norm. It has happened before, why wouldn't this happen again?

i don't want answers like, "we trust in God", because the person i'm discussing wants "academic", tangible answers. thanks

Wasalam,

First of All USA is not God either.. Do not give usa too much credit.. Now the question How?.. my question is how does everyone else does it?.. God doesn’t just put money under their pillows.. Afghanistan has two most readily available resources.. (1) labor (never underestimate the power of number) (2) some agriculture land.. Agriculture land should be made usable. Green revolution would get Afghanistan ready for other things.. second step should be developing other indigenous resources.. Minning, Furniture, and other such businesses where Afghanistan has raw material.. and other businesses and services that are based on these resources.. we can just talk about minning, gas extraction, distribution, similarly, precious metal/minerals extraction refining, selling etc.. First step is to feed yourself, second step is to make some money to get onto to third step which is getting your industry and services to an international standards,.. so it is very doable with Afghanistan.. trust me..

Case in point Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan in the neighborhood are actually failed states.. believe it or not.. they do not have enough man power, raw material or even agricultural land.. if foreign aid stops these countries would not be able to survive.. but even if they can do it.. why can’t Afghanistan??!.. I know these countries have some mineral resources. But with the size of Afghanistan I expect more of minerals in Afghanistan than other central Asian states..
Japan has no natural resources to speak of.. So does china (in proportion to their population). I am not saying that Afghanistan is loaded, but I think Afghanistan is decent. God makes sure that he distributes things in an equitable manner, sometimes we see that and sometimes we don’t. But God is the only one who is 100% just, the rest of us all try…



I think there is going to be civil war.. I think Americans have already sown the seed for civil war.. giving power to minority over the majority.. Taliban (however we feel about them) brought stability and lull.. Prosperity comes from peace and justice.. Its upon Afghanistan i’s to take it upon themselves to change their destiny.. no one else would do it from them.. not even Americans.. there is no such thing as free lunch..

See, when you see pictures of dead children (of whatever ethnicities, or religion) it breaks your heart.. I think Afghanistan would have to do it for its children.. and have faith in God… Because if we see history of the world.. we notice that god gives everyone a chance ,, East had the chance, now west is having it’s go at it.. Please don’t tell me there is no corruption in west .. because there is.. but God intends on keeping them rich, so they are..

Being poor is not a bad thing.. It only makes us grateful and stronger.. injustice, dishonesty and cruelty is not acceptable..

I for one believe that Afghanistan need very strong and strict leader for at least 20 years.. who can bring in stability.. has to be a Pashtun.. and has to be respected by other minorities.. we need one whole generation of children, who has not experienced war and are educated..

Also no one would have a definite answer… only God knows the future.. we can only do our best today and have faith that god would make our tomorrow better.. but ingredient is Honesty, Hard work and Faith.

[Zazai]

salam,

ok, thanks everyone! i read all of your posts (took me a while lol)

yesterday, i had another discussion with that guy, and he accepted some of your arguments, but not all of them.

he further said:

1- when the americans were in helmand 50 years ago orso, it was prospering ("the little america").....don't we want prosperity?

2- the general population of AFG is illiterate, and doesn't know whats good and bad for them. this BSA is a bitter pill that we need to push down their throat, for their own well being.

3- america IS the world... nobody else matters. cutting relations with america is cutting relations with the world. if we cut military ties with america, they'd cut economic relations with us.

4- the person with money rules the world. in AFG, we are so poor, an Afghan dentist still removes teeth with a plier! we don't have medicines. poverty. if we cut relations with the strongest economy in the world, they will bully us forever and never allow us to prosper.

5- even if anti-US people start to rule AFG, the US will put economic embargo's on us, like they did in Iraq - and millions will starve!!!

6- if US pulls out of AFG, a powervacuum will be created, they will still rule our airspace and drone our villages, like they do in pakhtunkhwa. its true that they still do this, but now, at least we can restrict them with the BSA.

7- if the US pulls out, there are taliban, hizb islami, nothern alliance, hazaras, current warlords, who will spill blood over territory. AFG will be LOOTED. homes will be looted, offices will be looted, women will get raped, nothing will function. AFG infrastructure will be broken again, our people will die, technocrats will flee.........the country will go back to stone age.

8- the armed opposition, has NO experience in state building, international relations, political bureaucracy, economics, engineering etc, so they cannot run a country at all.... AFG will be a pariah state.

9- karzai said, the US forces WILL NOT ENTER afghan homes, they will not kill afghan civilians, they will bring peace, they will hand over afghan prisoners from guantanamo. this is part of the BSA contract. the official draft is changing. it's not final. if they do enter afghan homes, or kill civilians, the BSA will be annulled!!!!

he said, our friendship with america is "zahiri". in reality, we hate them! it's just that we still need them....the moment we stand on our own feet, we'll cancel the BSA.

your thoughts?

[Tiger Khan]

salam,

ok, thanks everyone! i read all of your posts (took me a while lol)

yesterday, i had another discussion with that guy, and he accepted some of your arguments, but not all of them.

he further said:

1- when the americans were in helmand 50 years ago orso, it was prospering ("the little america").....don't we want prosperity?

2- the general population of AFG is illiterate, and doesn't know whats good and bad for them. this BSA is a bitter pill that we need to push down their throat, for their own well being.

3- america IS the world... nobody else matters. cutting relations with america is cutting relations with the world. if we cut military ties with america, they'd cut economic relations with us.

4- the person with money rules the world. in AFG, we are so poor, an Afghan dentist still removes teeth with a plier! we don't have medicines. poverty. if we cut relations with the strongest economy in the world, they will bully us forever and never allow us to prosper.

5- even if anti-US people start to rule AFG, the US will put economic embargo's on us, like they did in Iraq - and millions will starve!!!

6- if US pulls out of AFG, a powervacuum will be created, they will still rule our airspace and drone our villages, like they do in pakhtunkhwa. its true that they still do this, but now, at least we can restrict them with the BSA.

7- if the US pulls out, there are taliban, hizb islami, nothern alliance, hazaras, current warlords, who will spill blood over territory. AFG will be LOOTED. homes will be looted, offices will be looted, women will get raped, nothing will function. AFG infrastructure will be broken again, our people will die, technocrats will flee.........the country will go back to stone age.

8- the armed opposition, has NO experience in state building, international relations, political bureaucracy, economics, engineering etc, so they cannot run a country at all.... AFG will be a pariah state.

9- karzai said, the US forces WILL NOT ENTER afghan homes, they will not kill afghan civilians, they will bring peace, they will hand over afghan prisoners from guantanamo. this is part of the BSA contract. the official draft is changing. it's not final. if they do enter afghan homes, or kill civilians, the BSA will be annulled!!!!

he said, our friendship with america is "zahiri". in reality, we hate them! it's just that we still need them....the moment we stand on our own feet, we'll cancel the BSA.

your thoughts?

Afghans would have to change themselves.. you are giving America to much credit.. they are not god.. nations are only prosperous because they want to be.. no third party would do it for them.. why should America help afg?.. why not afg help themselves.. ???

[Bost Bastan News]

No! We don´t have an own economy. We don´t own an industry. We don´t own cars, tanks, weapons and even the Internet is brought from outside paid by US money. Without US unemployment will rise to 80%, streets will turn back to battlefields, the number of refugees will increase this time more than before. US is the main financer of Afghanistan.

[Bost Bastan News]

Afghans would have to change themselves.. you are giving America to much credit.. they are not god.. nations are only prosperous because they want to be.. no third party would do it for them.. why should America help afg?.. why not afg help themselves.. ???

your so independent Pakistan are so prosporously ...you people can´t even feed 10 families without US ...

[DSM0305]

Afghans would have to change themselves.. you are giving America to much credit.. they are not god.. nations are only prosperous because they want to be.. no third party would do it for them.. why should America help afg?.. why not afg help themselves.. ???

Stop acting stupid. I hope for you own sake, that you didn't mean what you just said. Every person will question your intelligence, if this is your honest opinion. I mean one thing is to be against the USA staying in Afghanistan, but restricting yourself from facing reality is just plain stupid.

Your comment may be useful to educate kindergarten student and motivate them to be something big in the future, but it is just stupidity in regarding politics and nation building.

Every person is helping himself, especially afghans. In the end reality stays reality and Afghanistan condition isn't ind any shape to stay on its own feet.

Afghanistan doesnt have money for military, police, education, industry, crime tackling, hospitals etc.
It is just the reality and it will stay this way regardless of what Afghans do. Without some sort of foreign assistance, Afghanistan's infrastructure and the situation itself will not get improved even after 1000 years.

Afghanistan is in a situation right now, that requires foreign assistance. How long it takes for Afghanistan to be back on it feet depends on how much assistance we will get.

Being dramatic and philosophic wont help even a bit. The only thing that will help Afghanistan is to realize its situation and accept facts/reality. It is sad, but true.

[khushal]

come on guys, stop the afghan/paki rivalry. All these nations whether its afghanistan, pakistan or any istan including the nations in the middle east are designed to fail no matter how you cut it. Without the region going back to its historical natural state as one economic unit, all parties will stay as a failures fighting each other for scraps instead of working together.