America wants 9 bases in Afghanistan

[torkham]

Reported in Pajwok today.
US seeks 9 military bases in Afghanistan
By Javed Hamim Kakar May 9, 2013 - 13:32
KABUL (PAN): The United States has demanded nine permanent military bases in Afghanistan, something that has long fuelled concerns among regional countries, President Hamid Karzai said on Thursday.
In the bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) being negotiated between the allies, the president said: “The United States insists on its demands and interests and we stick to our own.”
Addressing a ceremony at the Kabul University, he said Washington had sought military bases in Nangarhar, Parwan, Balkh, Kabul, Paktia, Kandahar, Helmand and Herat provinces.
Iran and Russia have repeatedly opposed a permanent American military presence in Afghanistan, fearing it may exacerbate insecurity in their neighbourhood.
Given the fact that Afghanistan was going through a critical phase of history, his administration was doing its bit to exercise caution in taking important decisions, he observed.
He underlined the need for concrete steps to ensure a better future for the conflict-torn country, notably durable peace and economic security. With this in mind, Afghanistan had signed a strategic pact with the US, he said.
In return for the military bases, Afghanistan wanted the US to ensure its stability, strengthen its economy and equip its armed forces, the president explained.
Karzai believed the presence of US and other foreign troops after 2014 would be in Afghanistan’s interest, but the world had accord primacy to boosting its security forces.
“If they do it, we are ready to sign the BSA with America,” remarked the president, hinting at separate agreements with the NATO states that wanted to stay in Afghanistan after next year’s withdrawal of foreign combat troops.
The president tended to allay concerns about America’s continued presence in his country, saying Afghanistan desired robust ties to its neighbours. He hailed as a success his recent trip to Denmark, Finland and Poland.

[Admin Khan]

I called it 2 years ago on PF.

[torkham]

That's military bases!!!! It benefits the businessmen, and the ancillary industry and many groups in Afghanistan, though I suspect it provides a feel good factor and it presents itself in highly localised, secured areas. (I used the words 'secured areas' to mean the same as the British used the word 'settled area' to describe the sarhad pashtun areas where revolts and uprisings had been supressed by force).
I would rather break than bend to such demands on my country.

[Wowra]

I don't know how I feel about it. On one hand, continued military presence would only serve to exacerbate the situation; however, if the presence is only there to harbor a safe-haven for NGOs, then I suppose it could be good. Unfortunately, most NGOs have an agenda they push with the services they provide. If America cuts ties completely, we saw what happened during the Time of the Topakyan. If they don't, then they continue to be fuel to the fire for the insurgency. There's certainly no neat measure of victory in Afghanistan. Honestly, I think agenda-less non-government organizations coupled with rigorous training of ANSF, and diplomatic engagement through village stability operations to link the tribes with the line ministers would really be the only feasible strategy. Obviously, that would require a military footprint to secure. Unfortunately, if this were put into practice - NGOs would push western feminism and other agendas, the military presence would feel to the need to target rather than train (there's no valor awards for training people), and the diplomatic engagement would quickly turn into force-feeding Kabul to the villages rather than connecting the tribes to kabul from the ground up. I guess only time will show what the intent behind the 9 bases will be - to be sure, "counter terrorism" will have a huge part.

[Admin Khan]

I don't know how I feel about it. On one hand, continued military presence would only serve to exacerbate the situation; however, if the presence is only there to harbor a safe-haven for NGOs, then I suppose it could be good. Unfortunately, most NGOs have an agenda they push with the services they provide. If America cuts ties completely, we saw what happened during the Time of the Topakyan. If they don't, then they continue to be fuel to the fire for the insurgency. There's certainly no neat measure of victory in Afghanistan. Honestly, I think agenda-less non-government organizations coupled with rigorous training of ANSF, and diplomatic engagement through village stability operations to link the tribes with the line ministers would really be the only feasible strategy. Obviously, that would require a military footprint to secure. Unfortunately, if this were put into practice - NGOs would push western feminism and other agendas, the military presence would feel to the need to target rather than train (there's no valor awards for training people), and the diplomatic engagement would quickly turn into force-feeding Kabul to the villages rather than connecting the tribes to kabul from the ground up. I guess only time will show what the intent behind the 9 bases will be - to be sure, "counter terrorism" will have a huge part.

You think there is a possibility for the topakyan era to return again?

[Wowra]

I do. I think the preparation has already begun - in certain fractured locales. I think this one will be much worse, though. I don't think the Hazaras will ever put themselves in a position to trust any Sunni faction. Back in the Behsuds and in Bamyan, you'll see strange alliances with the Chinese and Iran. Lots of weapons. I don't think the Tajiks will every put themselves in a position to trust Sayyaf and Itihad. Harakat appears weak, but how many Harakat-i-Inqilab still stand among the Taliban ranks with a sort of dual citizenship? Now we throw the Taliban into the mix - and will the Haqqani's stay true to Mullah Omar if everyone is fighting? I don't think so. Harakat still hates Itihad and Hesb-i Islami. Itihad has been grabbing power positions in the government relying on old acquaintance with folks from Mujadiddi and Gailaini factions, but Hesb-i-Islami has seized perhaps the most key positions: the Ministry of Education. In many provinces from Kabul down to the teacher, all identify themselves with Hesb-i Islami. Remember how the Muslim Youth Organization started, because Hesb-i Islami does. Now consider, the people who will fight - the actual gun men, are the men who have never lived not at war. They don't even know what peace looks like. It stands to be an ugly time. Karzai wouldn't last a quarter of the time Najibullah did after the Russians left. Those nine bases will be key to at least slow the roll of the Topakyan. That's a little bit cryptic of a response, and disjointed, but off the cuff that's how I see it coming.

[Talal]

It would be the most naive thing to assume they'd just pack up and leave. Apparently these 9 bases have been okayed by Afghanistan.

Afghanistan to allow US bases to remain

[Kushan Prince]

If Karzai approves of this, he is seriously going to be a traitor of Afghanistan.

[torkham]

If Karzai approves of this, he is seriously going to be a traitor of Afghanistan.

They way he (karzi) is talking, it smells fait accompli. Traitor indeed, in your eyes and mine, but many business people have been cautiously waiting before investing further in afghanistan, for the green light for american presence. I wonder if adbullahx2 or ghani or qanuni or meliti ilk would have denied the americans. For sure the hard core rag tag lashkars from qwata to farah would not have entertained the yanks to put it mildly, but at a cost. Sadly it all costs, one way or the other. Broken, isolated, tumble weed dust bowl with izzat intact or broken (as in tamed) with izzat pushed up our aces. There is a middle way, but it needs a calculating leader who can extract the $$$ from all the pledgers , invest it on the infrastructure and people of afghanistan and cohere the nation with transparent benevolence, and rough back the dirty politics till diginity and prosperity trikles into the soil. I had hoped that karzai despite being allotted puppet, he would have dug deep into his Pashtun soul and rebelled against the puppeteers and done good for the nation . . . .
He probably justifies it as doing the nation a favour, where as the nation knows he has done himself a favour.
I still hope he can throw one his tantrums and do some thing better.

[Wowra]

They way he (karzi) is talking, it smells fait accompli. Traitor indeed, in your eyes and mine, but many business people have been cautiously waiting before investing further in afghanistan, for the green light for american presence. I wonder if adbullahx2 or ghani or qanuni or meliti ilk would have denied the americans. For sure the hard core rag tag lashkars from qwata to farah would not have entertained the yanks to put it mildly, but at a cost. Sadly it all costs, one way or the other. Broken, isolated, tumble weed dust bowl with izzat intact or broken (as in tamed) with izzat pushed up our aces. There is a middle way, but it needs a calculating leader who can extract the $$$ from all the pledgers , invest it on the infrastructure and people of afghanistan and cohere the nation with transparent benevolence, and rough back the dirty politics till diginity and prosperity trikles into the soil. I had hoped that karzai despite being allotted puppet, he would have dug deep into his Pashtun soul and rebelled against the puppeteers and done good for the nation . . . .
He probably justifies it as doing the nation a favour, where as the nation knows he has done himself a favour.
I still hope he can throw one his tantrums and do some thing better.

Regarding Karzai's empty tantrums: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/14/op...&src=recg&_r=0

[Admin Khan]

^That was an interesting read. Thanks Wowra.

[khushal]

Its almost impossible for him to act independent. Even the most simple minded illiterate afghan can see through it. His tantrums are actually working against him, he is offending his support in the West while he is not fooling the Afghans.

[torkham]

I suspect karzai and shah shuja ul mulk share one thing; being sadozai-popalzai.

Interesting article bcz this is a first for me to see a western commentator trace karzai's shajra to shah shuja, and deconstruct the charade of karzai's tantrums and US feigning disapproval. that is clear, to me, just as the collusion of US and Pakistan military, over the use of drones (to keep the masses at bay so the puppets in pakistan can loosen their ties and pull their collar with a finger for relief, and enjoy slugging black label served by their batman in the isi mess).

Can karzai counter the ignominy? of his jad, the Popalzai Shuja losing peshawar, the kohinoor, and displacement as ruler at hand of his brother from another mother, Mahmoud, that treaty with Elphinstone and exile in Hind, in a modern day turn around, of rejecting US demands of the naha pozi adde and secure all the international financial pledges, forge the nation with transparent benevolence in distributing the aid for developing infrastructure, thereby helping people achieve the normality of health, education and freedoms enjoyed by some in our region.

It is a difficult task, I also wonder what would, say abdullahx2, or dr ghani saeb, or qanuni would have said or done, and knowing full well that the rag tag lashkars from qwata to farah would have never entertained the idea of these nine adde. Of course the kwata shura would have done it at a cost, nothing is for free, either a broken afghanistan of tumble weed dust bowl with topakyan claiming triumph of izzat OR a broken (as in tamed) afghanistan with its izzat shoved up its ace.

There is always another route, a better more effective route of rehabilitating a nation, it requires a sort of marshall plan with marshall aid, afghans are not german nor japanese, two were destroyed and were built again, better, stronger, faster . . . . and both have exceeded themselves since then; we need a clever leader, benevolent and transparent, who can unite afghans, who can siphon the financial pledges directly into infrastructure projects, allowing hope and confidence to trickle into our soil.



http://www.sikhreview.org/pdf/july20...ontroversy.pdf (re kohinoor)

Shah Shuja (shuja runs east from peshawar, elphinstone)

Afghanistan 1747-1809: Sources in the India Office Records (time line from baba ahmad abdali to shah shuja)

[Talal]

Karzai is going to be replaced soon, so he is doing whatever he possibly can to fill his pockets..bases land you name it if he can get some bucks for it he'll hand it over to the white house. Why ? Its not his headache after one year, he's gonna bail.

The ultimate motive behind these bases as I see it has absolutely nothing to do with Afghanistan, these bases are specifically for china and then more importantly these bases will be CIA's ultimate black ops hub for the region and the drug/black market trade.

They will keep throwing bones to the ANA on one side and let the taliban continue to engage ANA to keep them both busy. Then on the side they will maintain a weak enough civilian government that is hooked on their aid like a junkie to keep the corrupt politicians and parliamentarians under their thumb.

So after complete troop withdrawal, you can expect for the time being a bigger scale conflict between ANA and the taliban..Ultimately taliban will push the ANA back and perhaps even the americans will bail.

Afghanistan's future will be decided by no one other than the pashtuns in the tribal belt and agencies which at the moment are represented by taliban. History swears it, the nations who tried to conquer these areas know it that these people can fight for decades thats their creed you cannot deny that and more importantly you cannot counter it.

[Manzareh]

No doubt these bases will serve as an income for the US by simply draining the natural wealth of Afghanistan and still leaving the native people in poverty.