Forging the Taliban into Effective Governance

[Wowra]

Salaam! I was just curious how this would be received here:

Accidental Alchemy: Forging the Taliban into Effective Governance by Default | Foreign Policy Journal

Wowra

[Admin Khan]

It's hard to define the term Taliban, since nowadays it is used as a blank statement. It seems like the core reason for people joining the Taliban is their swift, brutal, form of Justice vis-a-vis the present corrupt court system full of bribery, and their sympathizers who view them as a challenger to the US global hegemony. What you should take into consideration is their primary source of recruitment is folks who have lost loved ones as a result of NATO/Afghan air-strikes; it's simply a way of revenge with each member having a unique story to tell.

Now keep in mind, at the end of the day, for the most part, they are Afghans, and they should be allowed to participate in the government, provided that they drop their support for bomb blasts that are killing civilians, and agents who have infiltrated their group that serves Pakistan's interests. Unfortunately, for the most part, the Taliban has been used by regional nations as a chess piece, without them inadvertently realizing this. Illiteracy is a major problem, but for the most part, if they disarm and drop their connects with regional spy-agencies, stop the violence, I don't see why Afghans would have any problems with them.

[BarakzaiAbdali]

This is a superb article Wowra.

I read it and I am very impressed with this Matthew Snow's insight and his ability to see through his adversary's eyes. His grasp on history is paramount to his ability to understand the dynamic in the village (even just beyond urban borders).

Take for instance these insightful quotes:

"The violence and abuse can never be explained away, but its origins can be understood by dissecting the genesis of the perpetrators. The Taliban movement began not as a form of government, but a reaction to a social condition.[3] The period between the fall of Najibullah’s communist regime and the rise of the Islamic Emirate is depicted in the long lists of the Human Rights Watch, and bitter memories of most Afghans.[4] Rape, murder and looting were common, and the conservative nation struggled under an anarchic system of warlords.[5] However, as the movement gained momentum, it swept across the majority of the country in mostly uncontested transitions of established political parties or at the behest of the people.[6] Most notably, Mawlawi Mohammed Nabi Mohammedi’s party of clerics, Harakat-i-Inqilab, joined the Taliban en masse.[7] Though the Taliban initially only sought to bring order to two districts in Khandahar, it was with this formation of men and students that they found themselves at the helm of a movement whose collective aim was to bring order to the chaos of civil war and warlordism in all of Afghanistan.[8] Unfortunately, without an insurgency to weld their affections to the people, the group ruled over the population rather than served, while in major cities, such as Kabul and Herat, they occupied.[9] However, as NATO stormed into Afghanistan reinforcing the Northern Alliance in late 2001, the Taliban Regime disintegrated, and the remnants were forced underground into what would eventually become a guerilla campaign."

And of course this one is essential:

"Between 2002 and 2005, little seemed to occur in the way of insurgency.[10] It was as if everyone was waiting to see what this new government the West assembled in the first Bonn Conference would look like. It was comprised of exiles, feminists, and leaders of the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance, and backed by western values and dollars.[11] In 2005, just when it seemed like Afghanistan would be destined for more of the same, the Taliban began its reconstitution.[12] A plethora of factors tend to form the necessary bedrock for a solid insurgency, but none so important as the acquiescence of the people. As the rebellion grows stronger, the acquiescence becomes a mutual dependency – without popular support, the insurgency will be doomed, just as Che Guevara discovered in Bolivia.[13]"

and I really think this commentary will sting the technocrats in their zoot suits in dubai:

"The West not only attempted to purchase a resolution for Afghanistan – but went so far as to barter rights for women, futures for children, and organization to the Afghan way of life with a state-of-the-art government built by experts and enforced by exiles.[18] Unfortunately, it was a bad design. Despite the billions of dollars the Coalition Forces have spent in their failed attempt to Westernize Afghanistan, they have produced an inverse reaction that may have positive ramifications for the troubled nation. They have successfully modernized the ousted Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan into an effective form of governance that could potentially stabilize the region."

" While Karzai plays the dubious contractor – not a difficult image since Mr. Karzai has appointed at least six family members to positions that collect contracts from the United States – he lines his pockets with money meant for materials to brace and strengthen the structure.[19] With such blatant disregard for an unstable creation, the Taliban stand to make huge gains with the Afghan people by merely shoring up the sides while the Karzai government loots the fixtures for their precious metals."

[BarakzaiAbdali]

And more impressively, he cuts through the propaganda from Afghan emigre elites and Dunford alike with such finesse its as if he is cutting through butter:

"Meanwhile, Karzai’s government is failing on nearly every front. Since the first Bonn Conference outlined the responsibilities and responsible parties in 2001,[20] only thirty percent of the nation’s capital had potable water by mid 2011 – though that figure was expected to increase to fifty percent over two years with tremendous investment from Germany.[21] Hundreds of billions of dollars invested so far,[22] and not even the most basic services have been restored by a behemoth bureaucracy that costs billions of dollars annually over what the poverty-stricken nation could ever afford on its meager GDP.[23] With a GDP ranking of less than twenty billion dollars in official exchange warranting almost one hundred billion dollars of pledged donations from the international community, Afghanistan cannot sustain the amount of government it has.[24] It would be like giving an unemployed vagrant a mansion in Beverly Hills, and responding with shock that he cannot afford the property tax or even the light bill – particularly if no one ever asked him if he wanted to live there in the first place."

He pretty much sums up what the Afghan National Police is and provides nice quotes from highly placed Afghans themselves:

"This is often the case in Afghanistan with the ever expanding government. The Afghan Local Police program is just one example of a controversial bureaucratic arm funded entirely by the international community – despite protest from the Afghan people and government alike.[25] Though it is often billed as an “Afghan solution to an Afghan problem,”[26] Afghans themselves despise the program. Karzai initially protested its organization until General David Petraeus was able to procure his silence, but was unable to silence Afghan Generals or Talibs on the subject.[27] Both cited what a disaster the program would be. Major General Esmatullah Dawlatzai claimed it would merely be renaming mafia and warlordism,[28] while Mullah Abdul Salam Zaeef claimed reinstating state-sponsored militias would only create more conflict.[29] Though the program began in 2009, by the three year mark it was already under probe by the Human Rights Watch commission for allegations of rape, murder, land theft, and arbitrary detention.[30] Disregarding the concerns of the Human Rights Watch and Afghan population, General McAllen, then senior military commander in Afghanistan, sought to expand the force from 16,000 men to 30,000 men.[31] Though this is merely one example, it serves as a microcosm for the bulwark of international issues in Afghanistan. Rather than healing an Afghanistan in Afghans’ collective image, the West is merely forcing medication down the ailing nation’s throat with blatant disregard to every warning on the label."

And of course to explain these out of touch with reality views that are dispersed through the Afghan Media complex and the Dunford voice pieces:

"Rather, the Karzai administration pushes their corrupt and often ineffective bureaucracy that continues to receive glorifying reviews from Western military. These reviews and reports are often authored by mid-level brass who have discovered the political ramifications of having their own success characterized by the success of provincial and district governments.[33] So in effect, corrupt officials continue to fleece money meant for districts, NATO’s middle management and staff get promoted, and everyone wins – except the people of Afghanistan who cannot see the benefit of being connected to a “predatory” or “ineffective” government.[34]"

[BarakzaiAbdali]

Through his extremely adept writing style that offers analysis, He provides a very apt description of what these emigres (e.g. Mr Karzai, Mr Ghani, Dr. Kakar, etc) are doing in an economical sense:

"Hundreds of billions of dollars invested so far,[22] and not even the most basic services have been restored by a behemoth bureaucracy that costs billions of dollars annually over what the poverty-stricken nation could ever afford on its meager GDP.[23] With a GDP ranking of less than twenty billion dollars in official exchange warranting almost one hundred billion dollars of pledged donations from the international community, Afghanistan cannot sustain the amount of government it has.[24] It would be like giving an unemployed vagrant a mansion in Beverly Hills, and responding with shock that he cannot afford the property tax or even the light bill – particularly if no one ever asked him if he wanted to live there in the first place."

[BarakzaiAbdali]

Can anybody provide more information about the credentials of this Matthew Snow? He appears to be a gifted author and one with much honesty and insight.

[Wowra]

Mr. Abdali,

Thank you very much for the kind words. My authority, these days, is nothing more than someone whose heart breaks for such a stricken country and people - as I'm sure is the case with many more on this forum. All of the source material is open-source and available to the public if people have the time. The only thing that wouldn't be replicable is some of the source material for the role of Nuristani women - that comes from personal interviews with friends. But for anyone with cursory acquaintance with the tribe, it was nothing too radical, but thought I should cite it properly. I figured the article would probably draw a lot of scrutiny.

I was just curious how it would be received by folks on here. I wrote an article about Malala Yousefzai (When Idols Turn to Sand) that initially caught a lot of flak, but soon Pakistani women began commenting in favor of the article - and I realized that they were who I wrote it for. I guess I wanted to make sure my moral compass was still calibrated here as well. Thanks so much for an awesome review, and I am truly flattered and honored. Thank you!

Wowra

[BarakzaiAbdali]

Mr. Abdali,

Thank you very much for the kind words. My authority, these days, is nothing more than someone whose heart breaks for such a stricken country and people - as I'm sure is the case with many more on this forum. All of the source material is open-source and available to the public if people have the time. The only thing that wouldn't be replicable is some of the source material for the role of Nuristani women - that comes from personal interviews with friends. But for anyone with cursory acquaintance with the tribe, it was nothing too radical, but thought I should cite it properly. I figured the article would probably draw a lot of scrutiny.

I was just curious how it would be received by folks on here. I wrote an article about Malala Yousefzai (When Idols Turn to Sand) that initially caught a lot of flak, but soon Pakistani women began commenting in favor of the article - and I realized that they were who I wrote it for. I guess I wanted to make sure my moral compass was still calibrated here as well. Thanks so much for an awesome review, and I am truly flattered and honored. Thank you!

Wowra

Well Sir,

I read your piece on Malala Yousefzai. And true to the peice of above, it is of a high caliber.

It is a shame that neither Kabul's technocrats nor the Americans or other Western powers have your voice in their ear.

Your pieces are much more humanistic rather than jingoistic. That however does not sap them of an analytical strength.

You may not like them, but I think you will appreciate what I mean if you read Matthew Hoh's work in the The Nation magazine and Michael Scheuer's books on the region (especially Imperial Hubris). I find your work to be on the caliber of the latter but with a more humanist tinge to it.

What I can contribute to this discussion - and I hope you and I can continue to have discussions - is that you are very very near the history of the region and are just on the brink of understanding the fatal dichotomy that opens it to perpetual interventionalism from abroad. For that is the key word between you and I, interventionalism.

You note Geuvara in your essay under discussoin... a superb reference for never was there a greater idealist than Dr. Ernesto himself. What Che learned in Bolivia - and what he learned in Cuba after his experiment to extract the latter's economy from Western hegemony - was that there is pragmatism and then there is idealism.

The last sentence of your piece - nay the last paragraph encapsulates the most important recommendation you implicitly make - and its prose makes it powerful.

Now back to that dichotomy discussion between you and I: Afghanistan and so many Islamic nations are comprised of two peoples: the rural masses and the elite. You might say that all nations have this divide... and I would have to agree. The divide differs in these regions though and is more sharp. I am not out to emphasize the marxist notion of bourgieosie vs the proletariot. After all, based on your research you and I both know that many a lawyer and a doctor and a business have derived from his rural base and each of these have understood their native people even if they have relocated to a large urban base. But these others, Mr Ghani, Mr. Karzai, Mr Arsala etc and their past communist elite opponents like Mr. Najibullah viewed their people as backwards, crass, and like cattle - in need of guiding and manipulating and cajoling and then forcing. After all, they think, if ONLY these desparate dumb human beings can understand that a if a woman can dance ballet in Paris - why should Kalaay Karz not be able to produce a similar gifted artist who can dazzle Kabul with her twinkle toes. Their banking system, their notion of property ownership and undistributed wealth would be a hollow skeleton of the system they claimed to imitate abroad. These technocrats and emigres convinced themselves that they "sought to civilize their little brown brethren" and that they, Ghani, Karzai, Arsalan, Kakar, would be the reincarnated Washington, Jefferson, Franklin, and Adams (though they had none of teh qualities of understanding their own people that these latter did).

This sharpened and radicalized dichotomous nature of these countries have led these groups to be susceptible to outside powers manipulating these groups to stake an advantage. This is a pathology across the Muslim world. We see it in Egypt where the rural masses are being usurped in their right to autonomy and the natural progression of governance by the technocrats and elite simply because the latter feel the former will "affect their way of life." And in the past other powers have appealed to rural sentiments to oust governments that may have been distant but still understood their people.

Yet you, and you alone, in your final paragraph have stated the obvious - that autonony and stability are the pathway to progression. I warn you, this will not sit well with lazy emigres and technocrats who benefit extensively off this war. Nor will it be well recieved by the Western interest groups who have made it their lifes mission to execute social experiments on the Afghan people. They will accuse of bigotry and underestimating the aptitude of the Afghan people for social progress where the gold standard is the here and now in the post enlightenment West.

Do not worry and do not listen to these shrill cries that are doing their best to propagandize and hide your voice and your evidence based writing behind what they "feel" is best for Afghans. usually these folks have a personal financial benefit involved. After all, it becomes especially a problem when its a white guy that says it. Become very used to being called a "Paki," its a complement coming from such folks.

By the way, Imperial Hubris was also all Open source. You will enjoy it.

[randolph85]

Great article.

[Wowra]

Randolph, thank you very much.

Mr. Abdali-

Yes, I've been called everything from "terrorist" to "hajj hugger" and other such names, never a "paki" haha, so I look forward to it. I agree with everything you've mentioned. The more time I spend in Afghanistan, or with Afghans, the more clear it becomes that what is happening is not working, and the more mottled what 'success' might look like.

I'm glad you liked the Malala article - I was definitely apprehensive about how that would be received, but I think most people gleaned exactly what I was driving at. Unfortunately, the machine still trudges on and other 'martyrs' will be manufactured for sale.

[BarakzaiAbdali]

Randolph, thank you very much.

Mr. Abdali-

Yes, I've been called everything from "terrorist" to "hajj hugger" and other such names, never a "paki" haha, so I look forward to it. I agree with everything you've mentioned. The more time I spend in Afghanistan, or with Afghans, the more clear it becomes that what is happening is not working, and the more mottled what 'success' might look like.

I'm glad you liked the Malala article - I was definitely apprehensive about how that would be received, but I think most people gleaned exactly what I was driving at. Unfortunately, the machine still trudges on and other 'martyrs' will be manufactured for sale.

Mr. Snow,

I suspect your only motive is for the safety and sanctity of self autonomy for both the average (non-elite) Afghan and American alike. That is a sacred motive and I hope you do not lose heart.

Remember, as the elites rob their respective nations - it is important to not forget that they generally were not the hardest working people nor the brightest bulbs in the batch. Therefore, as they see their efforts beginning to fail and falter they accelerate their robbery. This is what we are witnessing before our very eyes.

I think its always good to look at politics and economics from an applied biological vantage point. With this in mind - the average individual - no matter how ideological he or she may be - awaits the direction of the strongest wind and also reacts to anything that begins to impinge on their personal wealth and health.

In the past year I have seen first hand the changes to the funding behind the American medical system and, as of late, seen how what were previously deemed life saving and abundant measures be renamed as scarce allocated resources. This sort of personal impingement on the daily lives of people have accelerated folks asking questions. Now these elites like the Lindsay Grahams and McCains and Obamas will still continue to do whatever they please. A critical point will come though should this attempt at expansionism continue - at which point economic demands and available resources will intersect with public pressure and result in a reevaluation.

It will be the same for Karzai and the dunder headed acolytes around him. This release of information regarding the Ghost Money did not just emanate from anywhere. It was likely leaked from within the Central Intelligence Agency by someone with discontent or from someone who Karzai cut out of the yield. These are the beginnings of the signs of a strain.

The reaction you get is very much the same as the reaction scientific people get when they discuss these assymetric tactics that are being utilized in the theater of war by the insurgency. I once had a lengthy discussion here and it was demanded of me to discuss whether or not I advocated these low resolution tactics that resulted in civilian casualties. I answered that its not about my opinion which is against it on an ethical level - but rather about the data folks like Pape have collected showing WHY it occurs. That is, its a symptom of the disease - not the disease itself (like bacterial infection [disease] and fever [symptom/sign]). Therefore, to ask one to have an opinion on it is an unncessary question. The important aspect is to explain why it occurs in the first place and the second question (what Pape also examines) is to understand what benefits it yields insurgencies world round. The general conclusion is that occupation by super powers and the resultant assymetric warfare is what spawns these low resolution tactics that yield little in the way of progress. To say this however results in a flurry of accusations and insults which are based in emotion and not analysis.

Please post future articles here for us as we benefit from your work by learning more about the history of the region and we also see how the West is educating itself on a higher level about this conflict.

[khushal]

I was trying to find something to criticize but could not find it. You have good knowledge of the tribal customs in Afghanistan. When a dispute occurs between two parties, the two parties choose an unbiased party, that both agree to, to resolve the matter. One of the reasons that most of the rural people choose the Taliban over corrupt government officials is because it is in their opinion that the Taliban are unbiased in the dispute and the government official is biased towards the one with the money and not only that but the Taliban enforce their decision while the government does not.
I especially liked how you explained that people tend to use the old fashioned ways to resolve disputes because those ways are understood by common poor people vs a complex confusing bureaucracy.

I liked the article especially the title, thanks for sharing.

[Admin Khan]

Wowra, I forgot to mention -- pleasure to have you here, and that was a very well articulated article. It's rare to find such genuine research being conducted before one decides to pen an article. Warm greetings.

Best,

[Wowra]

Mr. Abdali,

Absolutely, agree. The only way to get to the crux of any situation is when we strip the rhetoric/emotion/distractions away. Once I can see the raw data, I put it back together as I understand it and present it in a way I hope to be palatable. But you are right, most don't like the ugly truth. Its easier to pressure someone into a pro or anti stance so the person can be hated, persecuted or whatever. We all know, we can't persecute a truth.

Kushal,
I'm glad you liked it! Yes, I've played the role of the "old woman carrying the Holy Koran" seeking to broker peace between tribes, parties, qawms etc in a manner that neither lose honor. I think it requires intimacy to truly understand the function and am honored that you feel I captured it effectively. Hopefully those that don't know what it looks like, can still understand it.

Admin Khan,
Thanks so much - and its definitely awesome to be here. I wish I thought of this years ago, haha. I've had a torrid love affair with Afghanistan for many years now (thankfully my wife understands, haha). Again, thank you very much!