Can Afghanistan survive in the region

[ComradePashtun]

BA,

In most cases when insurgencies are not defeated in 10-15 years and they survive, active foreign support has been a key factor too.

[ComradePashtun]

Taliban rejecting peace overtures so far have been tactical, they will have to come around it somehow - and most likely not exclusively on their terms the denominator for which again is Pakistan's policy and play of its cards, which you rightly have alluded to. We will have to see how that plays out. ;-)

[khushal]

BA,

In most cases when insurgencies are not defeated in 10-15 years and they survive, active foreign support has been a key factor too.

One can argue that when a foreign created government does not fall in 10-15 years, foreign support has been a key factor, but in this case not only foreign support but also foreign soldiers fighting that foreign created governmnets battle to survive.

What you should say is that when insurgency is not defeated in 10-15 years, the government is corrupt, not popular, not of the people, for the people, by the people therefore illegitimate.

[Toramana]

For BarakzaiAbdali and Khushal ---the utmost Akhwanis---

Afghanistan's changing ways

NEW DELHI -- For Americans weary of nearly a dozen years of war, Afghanistan often seems like a country where nothing ever changes and the same story of ethnic and tribal struggle repeats itself in an endless loop.

But Afghanistan's demographics have changed in significant ways over the past decade. Rather than being mired in a perpetual feudal twilight, it's actually becoming a modern country. The statistical evidence of change, gathered from USAID data and other sources, is overwhelming.

The urbanization and economic development that have reshaped Afghanistan don't mean the country will have a bright political future, or that the Taliban won't regain a measure of power after U.S. troops leave in 2014. But the future won't simply be a replay of the past. The Afghanistan movie won't just restart where it left off when the Taliban were driven from power.

"The Taliban won't have a free run," says a senior Indian official in a conversation here about Afghanistan's future after U.S. troops leave. "This is not 1990 again. Afghanistan is a changed place."

The most obvious change is urbanization. Close to half the population now live in cities and towns. Kabul is a city of 5 million people, and the populations of Herat, Jalalabad and Kandahar have all tripled in the last decade. This urbanization weakens ethnic and tribal affiliations, and helps women get access to jobs and education.

The country, while still primitive in some rural areas, is also getting plugged into the global grid. More than twenty million people, or two-thirds of the country, now have access to mobile phones, compared to zero a decade ago. Saad Mohseni, who runs MOBY Group, the country's biggest media company, estimates that 60 percent of the population watches some television each week, and nearly 95 percent have access to radio.

All the billions that America pumped into the country helped foster corruption, to be sure, but the money didn't all vanish into bank accounts in Dubai. GDP per capita has increased nearly fivefold since 2002, with an annual growth rate of about 9 percent. Only 18 percent of the population has access to reliable electrical power, but that's triple what it was a decade ago.

The improvements in health are striking, even after a decade of war. Access to basic health services has risen from 9 percent in 2001 to more than 60 percent today. Life expectancy has increased from 44 years to 60 in the last decade; the maternal mortality rate has declined 80 percent; the under-5 mortality rate has dropped 44 percent. The number of primary health care facilities has increased nearly fourfold.

Afghanistan has rebuilt an education system that had nearly stopped functioning. In 2002, only 900,000 students were in primary school, nearly all boys. Today, 8 million students are in school, more than a third of them girls. University enrollment jumped from 8,000 in 2001 to 77,000 in 2011, and about 20 percent of these higher-education students are women. Literacy is currently about 35 percent, but it's expected to grow to 55 percent in 10 years and 80 percent in 20, unless disaster strikes.

The gains women have made are an especially visible index of change, but also a reminder that progress is fragile and could be reversed by the Taliban. In addition to the vastly larger number of female students, women now hold 27 percent of the seats in parliament, three Cabinet posts and 120 judicial positions. By the end of this year, at least 30 percent of government employees will be women.

Afghanistan is a democracy, too -- corrupt and capricious, but for now it's probably the freest country in the neighborhood, compared to Pakistan, Iran and the central Asian nations. It has a free and independent media, producing everything from an Afghan knockoff of "American Idol" to situation comedies to versions of Sesame Street dubbed into Dari and Pashto.

For many Americans, the Afghan War feels like defeat -- a painful waste of money and lives. Many people felt that way when the Vietnam War ended, little imagining the economic boom that would eventually come to that country after so many decades of brutal suffering. History is mysterious that way; sometimes the deeper transformations are invisible at the time.

Who can say what the future holds for Afghanistan? Surely, the country's turmoil and suffering won't end when U.S. troops depart; the situation may get much worse. But it's a mistake to assume that nothing changed during America's years of struggle there, or that many of those changes weren't for the good.

Afghanistan's changing ways | HeraldNet.com - Opinion columns

[BarakzaiAbdali]

For BarakzaiAbdali and Khushal ---the utmost Akhwanis---

Afghanistan's changing ways

NEW DELHI -- For Americans weary of nearly a dozen years of war, Afghanistan often seems like a country where nothing ever changes and the same story of ethnic and tribal struggle repeats itself in an endless loop.

But Afghanistan's demographics have changed in significant ways over the past decade. Rather than being mired in a perpetual feudal twilight, it's actually becoming a modern country. The statistical evidence of change, gathered from USAID data and other sources, is overwhelming.

The urbanization and economic development that have reshaped Afghanistan don't mean the country will have a bright political future, or that the Taliban won't regain a measure of power after U.S. troops leave in 2014. But the future won't simply be a replay of the past. The Afghanistan movie won't just restart where it left off when the Taliban were driven from power.

"The Taliban won't have a free run," says a senior Indian official in a conversation here about Afghanistan's future after U.S. troops leave. "This is not 1990 again. Afghanistan is a changed place."

The most obvious change is urbanization. Close to half the population now live in cities and towns. Kabul is a city of 5 million people, and the populations of Herat, Jalalabad and Kandahar have all tripled in the last decade. This urbanization weakens ethnic and tribal affiliations, and helps women get access to jobs and education.

The country, while still primitive in some rural areas, is also getting plugged into the global grid. More than twenty million people, or two-thirds of the country, now have access to mobile phones, compared to zero a decade ago. Saad Mohseni, who runs MOBY Group, the country's biggest media company, estimates that 60 percent of the population watches some television each week, and nearly 95 percent have access to radio.

All the billions that America pumped into the country helped foster corruption, to be sure, but the money didn't all vanish into bank accounts in Dubai. GDP per capita has increased nearly fivefold since 2002, with an annual growth rate of about 9 percent. Only 18 percent of the population has access to reliable electrical power, but that's triple what it was a decade ago.

The improvements in health are striking, even after a decade of war. Access to basic health services has risen from 9 percent in 2001 to more than 60 percent today. Life expectancy has increased from 44 years to 60 in the last decade; the maternal mortality rate has declined 80 percent; the under-5 mortality rate has dropped 44 percent. The number of primary health care facilities has increased nearly fourfold.

Afghanistan has rebuilt an education system that had nearly stopped functioning. In 2002, only 900,000 students were in primary school, nearly all boys. Today, 8 million students are in school, more than a third of them girls. University enrollment jumped from 8,000 in 2001 to 77,000 in 2011, and about 20 percent of these higher-education students are women. Literacy is currently about 35 percent, but it's expected to grow to 55 percent in 10 years and 80 percent in 20, unless disaster strikes.

The gains women have made are an especially visible index of change, but also a reminder that progress is fragile and could be reversed by the Taliban. In addition to the vastly larger number of female students, women now hold 27 percent of the seats in parliament, three Cabinet posts and 120 judicial positions. By the end of this year, at least 30 percent of government employees will be women.

Afghanistan is a democracy, too -- corrupt and capricious, but for now it's probably the freest country in the neighborhood, compared to Pakistan, Iran and the central Asian nations. It has a free and independent media, producing everything from an Afghan knockoff of "American Idol" to situation comedies to versions of Sesame Street dubbed into Dari and Pashto.

For many Americans, the Afghan War feels like defeat -- a painful waste of money and lives. Many people felt that way when the Vietnam War ended, little imagining the economic boom that would eventually come to that country after so many decades of brutal suffering. History is mysterious that way; sometimes the deeper transformations are invisible at the time.

Who can say what the future holds for Afghanistan? Surely, the country's turmoil and suffering won't end when U.S. troops depart; the situation may get much worse. But it's a mistake to assume that nothing changed during America's years of struggle there, or that many of those changes weren't for the good.

Afghanistan's changing ways | HeraldNet.com - Opinion columns

Uh, to sum it up your article basically says: People move to cities to look for jobs and monies. It doesnt do much in the way of proving that Pashtuns are adopting the bungrathope lifestyle of worshipping buddha, adopting free love, and losing touch with their own conservative ideologies.

Also, please re-read the last paragraph where it basically reiterates what I said before about dependency to the point of nearing the brink of a collapse.

All your posts are really useless to me at this point because at best they are hypothetical meanderings of a nonexistent people, ie Pashtuns are basically Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie being held hostage in heavy chains by a dirty Arab - just waiting to become communists and capitalists as well as free love gurus for eachother and others. And Kipling has to come and free them from their bondage.

.. at worst they are just exasperation manifesting as a desire to needle people about religious beliefs (which most people who are secure in their beliefs pay little attention to).

[ComradePashtun]

One can argue that when a foreign created government does not fall in 10-15 years, foreign support has been a key factor, but in this case not only foreign support but also foreign soldiers fighting that foreign created governmnets battle to survive.

What you should say is that when insurgency is not defeated in 10-15 years, the government is corrupt, not popular, not of the people, for the people, by the people therefore illegitimate.

Worthless and meaningless. The current government by any measure is more legitimate than the Talibums.

The foreign support for the Afghan government will continue. Now stick to the topic at hand, so what is your idea?

[BarakzaiAbdali]

BA,

In your view what is other civilised way of ending this war other fighting it out to an unknown outcome? Can we be a little more smarter?

Salamoona Comrade.

Give me about 48 hours to answer your good and fair questions in the setting of some demanding work hours these days. I dont want to off the cuff responses that deserve appropriate wording.

I will spell out in an evidence based fashion what I meant, where I think I was misunderstood, and how I view the players you ask about.

Khodaay Pamaan

[ComradePashtun]

Uh, to sum it up your article basically says: People move to cities to look for jobs and monies. It doesnt do much in the way of proving that Pashtuns are adopting the bungrathope lifestyle of worshipping buddha, adopting free love, and losing touch with their own conservative ideologies.

Also, please re-read the last paragraph where it basically reiterates what I said before about dependency to the point of nearing the brink of a collapse.

All your posts are really useless to me at this point because at best they are hypothetical meanderings of a nonexistent people, ie Pashtuns are basically Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie being held hostage in heavy chains by a dirty Arab - just waiting to become communists and capitalists as well as free love gurus for eachother and others. And Kipling has to come and free them from their bondage.

.. at worst they are just exasperation manifesting as a desire to needle people about religious beliefs (which most people who are secure in their beliefs pay little attention to).

Why so negative bro and dismissing everything out of hand? You see you come to your own conclusion prescriptive to your own mindset and bias and that is not healthy. Read and pay attention again, that is heck of progress which is deeply transforming Afghanistan and the society. It really is a matter of different zeitgeist than the dark-age era of Taliban tyranny. And Pashtuns by no means are as you would like to fancy and romanticise them as some prehistorical specious. At the heart and helm of the transformation apace in Afghanistan at every level are Pashtuns. Yes that is correct, no wonder we have smart doctors like you too.

Why equal general progress of a society and a country with hypothetical meandering? We don't want to be Buddha lovers and emulate Brad Pit? Is that what you do as a Pashtun in U.S.? Man you surprise me.

[BarakzaiAbdali]

Why so negative bro and dismissing everything out of hand? You see you come to your own conclusion prescriptive to your own mindset and bias and that is not healthy. Read and pay attention again, that is heck of progress which is deeply transforming Afghanistan and the society. It really is a matter of different zeitgeist than the dark-age era of Taliban tyranny. And Pashtuns by no means are as you would like to fancy and romanticise them as some prehistorical specious. At the heart and helm of the transformation apace in Afghanistan at every level are Pashtuns. Yes that is correct, no wonder we have smart doctors like you too.

Why equal general progress of a society and a country with hypothetical meandering? We don't want to be Buddha lovers and emulate Brad Pit? Is that what you do as a Pashtun in U.S.? Man you surprise me.

Its not the progress that is the meandering - its the implications by Toramana. Remember - this is a guy what day in and out does his best to get a rise out folks by posting articles about how the Quran led to some lady killing her kid in California.

Whilst your implications rest in the notion that Pashtuns have teh brain capacity to build cities, nuclear reactors, hospitals, and a civilized society and yet retain their own identity - Toramana is far more influenced by the philosophies of a party that pretty much supported the purges of Najibullah Ahmadzai -lock, stock and barrell.

Even between karzai and najibullah there is a world of difference.

Basically, my response was on a personal level to Toramana

[khushal]

Worthless and meaningless. The current government by any measure is more legitimate than the Talibums.

The foreign support for the Afghan government will continue. Now stick to the topic at hand, so what is your idea?

If what I said was worthless and meaningless, then you are describing your own statement since its a mirror image of what you said with the Taliban and Afghan gov switched.

But to be frank, just because one criticizes the Afghan Government or NATO does not automatically make that person a Taliban supporter. How can you say the Afghan government is more legitimate when they dont have soldiers that will die to defend it. All scholars admit that the ANA can not fight nor stand on its own. This fact proves they do not have the moral highground. This is the topic.

[ComradePashtun]

You are on a high horse of your ignorance, Khushal. No one criticizing Afg govt and NATO does not automatically make them Taliban supporters, I do that too. It is when you fabricate and lie as it suites you and propagate for Taliban is that makes you Taliban supporter.

Is that the basis of your evaluation for assessing the legitimacy of Afghan government?

Are you of your mind and have you even been to Afghanistan? Who are fighting the Taliban? They ANA are actively killing dozens of terrorists every day and rendering sacrifices almost on daily basis. Without a doubt ANA is a newly build army and would require time and resource until it sustain and become fully able to rely on itself. The has hugely improved over the past years. It is a fact that Taliban cannot withstand ANA in an open war and they at the moment can only run and hit and hide behind women and kinds. ANA currently is an effective force that is able to smash Taliban in any frontal war any time and place. One ANA commando is a match for 5 Taliban.

[khushal]

Its not me thats lying, its the reports. These reports are all lies right?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013...ato-withdrawal
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/16/wo...anted=all&_r=0
http://www.ibtimes.com/2012-award-wo...nt-goes-921517
http://www.academia.edu/942180/Empow...in_Afghanistan

And yes I have been there many times, why do you ask.

[BarakzaiAbdali]

BA,

With all due respect, but you see things from your own unique perspective, I may complain about lack of objectivity in this regard. While one also has really investigate the basis of your argument based on which you posit your ideas and then come to your own desired subjective conclusion.

If I may ask you why do you call the current government "Persian creation"? I can strongly argue that despite anything and if you were here in Afghanistan you should come to realize that the country has the hallmarks of being intrinsically a Pashtun creation in all important respects. But I want to hear from you on your claim.

But seriously, lets base our answers within the limits of the question asked by Admin Khan.

There is a serious inconsistency in your arguments (so in how long will Karzai's government fall, did you say something like a decade) and your parody of the economic rhetoric and linking it to argument at hand, the issue of "a war has to be won in 10-15 years" [which is not a fact] which you think is sourced from the released U.S. naval military documents, and finally your favorite Michael Scheur's polemic which you reiterate as your's. So will exactly Karzai's government survive or not, it seems that you may well be best served to argue against it. Surely "at some point in the next decade" cannot be taken as a serious answer.

What makes you think that Taliban will continue with their resort to violence which at most cases is terror and havoc, for an end which ultimately is a political one? What is that political end that they want to achieve, the jury is already out and that is the Afghan people and majority are against Taliban whether you like it or not. Mind you Afghanistan has been at war for more than thirty years and the absolute and vast majority of people yearn for all out peace and tranquility and have no desire for prolonging it. That is factor in itself one must give utmost consideration that hopefully and inshallah there will be no war to the next decade. Perhaps by then Taliban might as well have become part of the government, Karzai retired by next year and who knows Mullah Saib Omar who wipes his aas with rough stone could also have become the president through free and fare elections.

All this aside, I do love your way of ransacking Karzai and his team of any credibility which you run them down through your own unique Afghan humor.

Can you please explain the above excerpts from your post, and also try to link them. Do Taliban in your view, once again if you may, more than anything also equal to Pakistani proxy?

Sorry, took longer than 48 hours but things got busy.

I am not sure whether you are asking me to justify the answer of time lengths in the first paragraph. Comrade, the war at this point has been ongoing for about 12 years - 5 years of which was the upswing and increased tempo after the "boys in black" got their momentum back. Surely, conjecturing that the war could go on for some time, including another decade or two is not such a gamble then right? If i recall you said you spent some years in Britania - well even here the defence minister was talking about decades of sustained war right?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...-Minister.html

McChrystal is famous here inthe US for the 50 % done quotes just a few years back.

So I am a little taken aback about why you think its foolish to think that this could go on for some time as each time people have predicated the insurgency was in its death throws, some new Afghan official gets his body torn asunder and each week new reports emanate from provinces about shadow courts of insurgent justice.

Tomorrow, I will get to the first question you post about Persian versus Pashtun.

I hope all of the usual suspects, unless they really want to contribute, will leave this discussion between me and Comrade.

And Azmaal, when you are done posing as a Pashtun, go get me a cup of green tea like you do your sadomasochistic hermaphroditic mother father being Saleh.

[ډګروال]

Afghanistan will not survive on its on
we need foreign invaders ,matter of fact the rest who hasnt invaded us already should do so.Offcourse they can freely go around kill and torture and will not be persecuted.We will love to hand you over our mineral resources as long as we can work in your companies on our land as cheap labour.