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By A.H.Amin
Afghanistan has been the subject of misconceptions par excellence as far as Pakistani analysts and Pakistani policy makers are concerned.
First it is a misconception to state that Pakistan has all the cards to dictate the future policy in Afghanistan.
While it is true that a large number of Talibanin South Afghanistan depend on Pakistani states largess by relying on Quetta and South Balochistan as a logistic base. True that Pakistan is the main trading partner of Afghanistan. However there are counter arguments to these facts.
Afghanistan's north, and this means some 50 percent of the country, has a population which feels that Taliban are Pakistani proxies. This north does not depend on Pakistan for trade. If Pakistani cement is the main commodity in Jalalabad, Russian Iranian and Uzbek Cement is the main construction commodity in Mazar, Kunduz and Herat.
The involvement of Pakistan inside Afghanistan has been rather heavy since 1978. Pakistan became the base of Afghan insurgents from mid 1978 some one and half years before the Soviet invasion in December 1979. Since then Pakistan and particularly its military have used Afghanistan and the Afghan war to get economic and military aid from the US, Saudi Arabia and many other NATO states.
Pakistani analysts are attaching too much hope to US cold shouldering India. The US itself has limited leverage and influence in Afghanistan. The country's south is overflowing with Pakistan biased Taliban, also known as 'good' Taliban in Pakistan; Taliban who have never been attacked by the Pakistani military. The country's west contains Iran related groups ever keen to IEDise US military vehicles. The country's north contains Russian linked groups.
Afghanistan's bureaucracy, civil and military, was trained in USSR and is formally anti US and anti Pakistani military. These are the decision makers at the final level as policy decisions finally go in their hands.
Pakistani analysts have floated another impossible theory that Pakistan's ISI has won over the Northern Alliance. Nothing can be farther from the truth. The Northern Alliance understands the Pakistani security establishment better than any one. They know how Pakistani security institutions went to the last extent in destroying the Northern Alliance militarily and even politically from 1994 to 2001. How Ahmad Shah Massoud was fighting cornered in Khoja Bahauddin and only with Russian,Tajik and Iranian help.
The Northern Alliance understands that Pakistani policy in Afghanistan has to be Pashtun centric and Fundamentalist centric as these are the policy dynamics that Pakistan cannot alter because of political as well as geopolitical reasons. Only Islam would sell in South Afghanistan, Pashtuns are the ethnic group which the Pakistani establishment cannot afford to ignore, at the peril of Pakistan's Balkanisation.
There is another geographical misconception in Pakistani analysts that the Chah Bahar Nimroz route is “much closer to the major Afghan cities than Karachi†as fallaciously stated by many Pakistani analysts.
Even a child can plot on a basic atlas and find out that the Nimroz route is longer than the Karachi Kandahar route for any major Afghan city including Heart, Kandahar, Kabul,Mazar except Zaranj which is a village like Afghan town on the border. Further this route is heavily dominated by Pakistan biased Taliban and heavy armed escorts are required even during day time. Geography dictates which even the mighty Americans cannot change is that unless plate movements severely alter the earths map, the route Karachi Kandahar will remain Afghanistan's shortest route to the sea.
Pakistani analysts are phenomenally ignorant about Afghanistan's transit trade. The main issue in Afghanistan's transit trade with Pakistan is not distance from ports, which makes Pakistan Afghanistan's best preference for eternity but Pakistani bureaucracy, which delays (by design) Afghan goods at Karachi and all the way to the border.
Thus for 20 years Afghans have preferred the 1200 Km plus longer Bandar Abbas Islam Qila Herat route for their transit trade.
Afghanistan will survive and prosper as an independent state provided its neighbors i.e Iran, Pakistan, Central Asian Republics and above all Russia leave it alone. Geopolitical realities dictate that this will not be the case. Afghanistan has remained the battle ground between the US and Russia, between US and Iran, between Pakistan and India and so on.
The differences between the Taliban and Northern Alliance are not only ideological but ethnic and sectarian when we include the Shias and Ismailis of Northern Alliance (a minority though).
The Russians, Indians and Iranians will not accept any US imposed solution on Afghanistan, civil war will recommence and Taliban will not get a clean run till Oxus River.
US largess, inviting Pakistan to strategic dialogue, ignoring Indians or the bulky Saudis would not solve this issue.
Two options are possible. One that the neighbors stop interfering. Utopian, which is unlikely. Second that Afghanistan is divided into a North with Northern Alliance and Pashtuns allied to Northern Alliance, a Taliban South, and a Baloch Autonomous region in the West, all along the Iran Afghanistan border to act as a cordon sanitaire for stopping Iranian interference in Afghanistan, and basic rights to Afghanistan's Baloch regarded as Dravidians by Pashtuns,Iranians and Uzbeks.
Afghanistan has been the subject of misconceptions par excellence as far as Pakistani analysts and Pakistani policy makers are concerned.
First it is a misconception to state that Pakistan has all the cards to dictate the future policy in Afghanistan.
While it is true that a large number of Talibanin South Afghanistan depend on Pakistani states largess by relying on Quetta and South Balochistan as a logistic base. True that Pakistan is the main trading partner of Afghanistan. However there are counter arguments to these facts.
Afghanistan's north, and this means some 50 percent of the country, has a population which feels that Taliban are Pakistani proxies. This north does not depend on Pakistan for trade. If Pakistani cement is the main commodity in Jalalabad, Russian Iranian and Uzbek Cement is the main construction commodity in Mazar, Kunduz and Herat.
The involvement of Pakistan inside Afghanistan has been rather heavy since 1978. Pakistan became the base of Afghan insurgents from mid 1978 some one and half years before the Soviet invasion in December 1979. Since then Pakistan and particularly its military have used Afghanistan and the Afghan war to get economic and military aid from the US, Saudi Arabia and many other NATO states.
Pakistani analysts are attaching too much hope to US cold shouldering India. The US itself has limited leverage and influence in Afghanistan. The country's south is overflowing with Pakistan biased Taliban, also known as 'good' Taliban in Pakistan; Taliban who have never been attacked by the Pakistani military. The country's west contains Iran related groups ever keen to IEDise US military vehicles. The country's north contains Russian linked groups.
Afghanistan's bureaucracy, civil and military, was trained in USSR and is formally anti US and anti Pakistani military. These are the decision makers at the final level as policy decisions finally go in their hands.
Pakistani analysts have floated another impossible theory that Pakistan's ISI has won over the Northern Alliance. Nothing can be farther from the truth. The Northern Alliance understands the Pakistani security establishment better than any one. They know how Pakistani security institutions went to the last extent in destroying the Northern Alliance militarily and even politically from 1994 to 2001. How Ahmad Shah Massoud was fighting cornered in Khoja Bahauddin and only with Russian,Tajik and Iranian help.
The Northern Alliance understands that Pakistani policy in Afghanistan has to be Pashtun centric and Fundamentalist centric as these are the policy dynamics that Pakistan cannot alter because of political as well as geopolitical reasons. Only Islam would sell in South Afghanistan, Pashtuns are the ethnic group which the Pakistani establishment cannot afford to ignore, at the peril of Pakistan's Balkanisation.
There is another geographical misconception in Pakistani analysts that the Chah Bahar Nimroz route is “much closer to the major Afghan cities than Karachi†as fallaciously stated by many Pakistani analysts.
Even a child can plot on a basic atlas and find out that the Nimroz route is longer than the Karachi Kandahar route for any major Afghan city including Heart, Kandahar, Kabul,Mazar except Zaranj which is a village like Afghan town on the border. Further this route is heavily dominated by Pakistan biased Taliban and heavy armed escorts are required even during day time. Geography dictates which even the mighty Americans cannot change is that unless plate movements severely alter the earths map, the route Karachi Kandahar will remain Afghanistan's shortest route to the sea.
Pakistani analysts are phenomenally ignorant about Afghanistan's transit trade. The main issue in Afghanistan's transit trade with Pakistan is not distance from ports, which makes Pakistan Afghanistan's best preference for eternity but Pakistani bureaucracy, which delays (by design) Afghan goods at Karachi and all the way to the border.
Thus for 20 years Afghans have preferred the 1200 Km plus longer Bandar Abbas Islam Qila Herat route for their transit trade.
Afghanistan will survive and prosper as an independent state provided its neighbors i.e Iran, Pakistan, Central Asian Republics and above all Russia leave it alone. Geopolitical realities dictate that this will not be the case. Afghanistan has remained the battle ground between the US and Russia, between US and Iran, between Pakistan and India and so on.
The differences between the Taliban and Northern Alliance are not only ideological but ethnic and sectarian when we include the Shias and Ismailis of Northern Alliance (a minority though).
The Russians, Indians and Iranians will not accept any US imposed solution on Afghanistan, civil war will recommence and Taliban will not get a clean run till Oxus River.
US largess, inviting Pakistan to strategic dialogue, ignoring Indians or the bulky Saudis would not solve this issue.
Two options are possible. One that the neighbors stop interfering. Utopian, which is unlikely. Second that Afghanistan is divided into a North with Northern Alliance and Pashtuns allied to Northern Alliance, a Taliban South, and a Baloch Autonomous region in the West, all along the Iran Afghanistan border to act as a cordon sanitaire for stopping Iranian interference in Afghanistan, and basic rights to Afghanistan's Baloch regarded as Dravidians by Pashtuns,Iranians and Uzbeks.
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