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In my honest opinion it is a meaningless pact just like the 'pact' Diem and Najib signed. That provides the historical backdrop to look at this.
I will give you my take on this here. Excuse the blunt talk.
What are you thoughts?
I will give you my take on this here. Excuse the blunt talk.
- NATO war/ karzai regime are only possible with Pakistani NATO transit routes, both air and ground, which account for 80% of the supplies
- the ground routes from Pakistan are currently closed, and I think they will not be opened at all due to public pressure (esp from centrists Imran and the religious right). Its at this point hard to believe they will be opened against the backdrop of such high opposition to them.
- Imran Khan will be the next PM of Pakistan, and with that comes even more of an end to Pakistan's current involvement. Not only will there be no more supplies in any manner, but there will be no more drone attack. Where does that leave this at except a foolish proclamation which karzai and spanta continue to make. The problem for them is no one exactly, especially in the region seems to be hearing them, and nor paying heed to this. Who blinks? Who are they speaking to? A wall?
- China is the new power of the region.
- Karzai/Spanta and the "Afgan" Parliament do not represent Afghanistan legally. Karzai has no control beyond the confines of Kabul. (Lt Davis Report)
- what matters is how the region reacts aside from Afghan opposition. If this drama warrants no reaction (karzai is hoping for a reaction), then it remains meaningless. I think 2014 remains the all so important date.
What are you thoughts?
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