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AN ASSESSMENT OF THE US STRATEGIC PLAN IN AFPAK
BY
Agha H Amin
1-US strategic objectives set up by the Department of Defense,Pentagon,State Department, CIA and DIA.
2-Note that Obama is just a clever social climber with no control over anything strategic.Note that despite all rhetoric Obama has failed to reverse any of Bushs strategic plans.Actually he was manipulated into escalation in Afghanistan,increased Drone attacks on Pakistan,and was even contradicted by his own US military commander in Afghanistan when he stated that 2011 would be US withdrawal year from Afghanistan.The Israelis snubbed and ignored him and all his grand utterances about middle east went nose down into a gutter.Little can be hoped from this Wall Street controlled smart boy and his secretary of state more fit to be on the wall mart board with no control over DOD , CIA or DIA.
3-The objective is not Al Qaeda , Taliban or Bin Laden.
4-The objective is long term srategic domination of the region , control of oil and gas , through destruction of Iran,Pakistan and creating chaos and disorder in Chinese Singkiang and Russian Central Asia using Islamist proxies.
5-One salient objective of the US plan is to denuclearise Pakistan .The final object being to have a secure US india base stretching from Afghanistan to Assam against China.
On Ground Situation
1-Droning of targets is to convince US public opinion and to benefit US private defense suppliers.
2-US troops consolidate Herat Kandahar Roads security for the TAP line while no major US offensive is launced against Taliban.After all why should the USA make any attempt to destroy Taliban.They after all are the good reason why the USA is in Afghanistan ?
3-Third Party Logistics contracts is a major step in consolidating US proxies in Pakistan.
4-The US policy of droning Pakistan and forcing the Pakistani military to take action against FATA is specifically design to bleed the Pakistani military white and destabilise Pakistan as an opening manouevre of Pakistans final denuclearisation .
5-The operational tools in this exercise are the US contractors in Afghanistan and Pakistan , US British private security companies in Pakistan and Afghanistan , Pakistanis and Afghans of US nationality and educated in USA with corporate profiles as agents of subtle subversion.You find these whiz kids everywhere in Pakistan.The Kerry Lugar aid is actually a systematic subversion of Pakistan through US handlers disguised as aid workers and Pakistani proxies working with USAID and NGOs.
6-Just analyse the simple fact that the Taliban were never a strategic or even tactical threat to USA . Not before 9/11 , not after 9/11.So why USA invested so much in Afghanistan in shapes of military bases , troops and logistics ? Certainly never to destroy the Taliban ?
7-Through the 2008 Elections the USA has already achieved regime change in Pakistan ! Benazir was found tricky and eliminated in JFK style ! A very typical US operation !
8-What is left is the Pakistani military severely cornered with a US threat , an Indian threat and an internal US manipulated threat in shape of insurgencies in NWFP and Balochistan ! How is that before 2002 there was no insurgency and after 2002 everything changed ?
9-The Pakistani nuclear assets are the main US target.
10-It is rather mysterious how the GHQ was attacked, how Punjab was attacked , how the Ahmadis long foregotten were attacked ? All a design to destabilise the Pakistanin state ? Mysterious target killings in Karachi ?
11--The exercise of denuclearising Pakistan is proceeding at a reasonable pace.While the Pakistani civilian government brought by the NRO manoeuvred by USA is fully on US payroll the Pakistani military has so far resisted but it is possible that they too may succumb within next few years.If not internally then finally externally when the USA manipulates India into a major strategic conflict with Pakistan.A manoeuvre which suits India as long as Pakistani first strike does not succeed in reducing to rubble what was once Delhi,Mumbai,Calcutta and Chennai ?
12-The US sees Pakistan balkanised in the next five to ten years as an independent Balochistan, an independent Paskhtunistan, an independent city state of Karachi and an independent Sindh.A denuclearised Punjab and a Northern Areas occupied by China and Pakistani held Kashmir occupied by India.
ANALYSIS
1-Present US strategic position is silent registration of targets in Pakistan,China,Iran,Central Asian States.
2-Russia,China and Iran are now irrevocably convinced that all attempts must be made to ensure that the USA fails in Afghanistan.Thus the increased attempts to logistically bolster all anti US groups.
3-The Pakistani military also realises that the USA must remain unstable in Afghanistan and any US success in Afghanistan would mean end of Pakistan in its present shape.
4-The USA has made an attempt to diversify its logistics into Central Asia to bribe the Central Asian Republics but the Russians know how to checkmate USA.
5-Conversely USA will not succeed in making Afghanistan safe for its oil and gas lines unless Pakistan is balkanised.The US projection for Balkanising Pakistan is from 3 to 5 years.The first to secede in the grand plan would be Balochistan.
6-The conventional part of the US grand manoeuvre against Pakistan would be manipulating India into a conflict with India which the US hopes would lead to a severely damaged and severely destroyed Pakistan and a less damaged India , followed by Pakistans occupation by US Indian forces and complete denuclearisation.
7-China Russia and Iran have the potential to throw a spanner in US plans.So does Pakistan and India if they have the foresight to see US designs.
8-Finally there is the factor X , divine will.Many times I told Nafeesa Hoodhbhoy of VOA Radio on air that USA is not God and all may not happen as USA wants.
The USA needs to realise that in history there always has been a gap bewteen thought and action , plans and their executions,or as they say the cup and the lip ! What the USA seems to be planning is dangerous , rash and contains many seeds of failure. History cannot be unilaterally made by one state , even if it is a great power like USA ? This is the lesson of history ! A lesson that US decision makers need to digest !
When I visited USA four times in between 1996 and 1998 I became convinced that most Americans were good Christians but the US elite was Pagan and Freemasonic at heart !
History is made by complex forces and we hope that the USA goes back in good shape back to US mainland and leaves this region at peace . An uneasy but more stable peace like the one before 9/11.
BY
Agha H Amin
1-US strategic objectives set up by the Department of Defense,Pentagon,State Department, CIA and DIA.
2-Note that Obama is just a clever social climber with no control over anything strategic.Note that despite all rhetoric Obama has failed to reverse any of Bushs strategic plans.Actually he was manipulated into escalation in Afghanistan,increased Drone attacks on Pakistan,and was even contradicted by his own US military commander in Afghanistan when he stated that 2011 would be US withdrawal year from Afghanistan.The Israelis snubbed and ignored him and all his grand utterances about middle east went nose down into a gutter.Little can be hoped from this Wall Street controlled smart boy and his secretary of state more fit to be on the wall mart board with no control over DOD , CIA or DIA.
3-The objective is not Al Qaeda , Taliban or Bin Laden.
4-The objective is long term srategic domination of the region , control of oil and gas , through destruction of Iran,Pakistan and creating chaos and disorder in Chinese Singkiang and Russian Central Asia using Islamist proxies.
5-One salient objective of the US plan is to denuclearise Pakistan .The final object being to have a secure US india base stretching from Afghanistan to Assam against China.
On Ground Situation
1-Droning of targets is to convince US public opinion and to benefit US private defense suppliers.
2-US troops consolidate Herat Kandahar Roads security for the TAP line while no major US offensive is launced against Taliban.After all why should the USA make any attempt to destroy Taliban.They after all are the good reason why the USA is in Afghanistan ?
3-Third Party Logistics contracts is a major step in consolidating US proxies in Pakistan.
4-The US policy of droning Pakistan and forcing the Pakistani military to take action against FATA is specifically design to bleed the Pakistani military white and destabilise Pakistan as an opening manouevre of Pakistans final denuclearisation .
5-The operational tools in this exercise are the US contractors in Afghanistan and Pakistan , US British private security companies in Pakistan and Afghanistan , Pakistanis and Afghans of US nationality and educated in USA with corporate profiles as agents of subtle subversion.You find these whiz kids everywhere in Pakistan.The Kerry Lugar aid is actually a systematic subversion of Pakistan through US handlers disguised as aid workers and Pakistani proxies working with USAID and NGOs.
6-Just analyse the simple fact that the Taliban were never a strategic or even tactical threat to USA . Not before 9/11 , not after 9/11.So why USA invested so much in Afghanistan in shapes of military bases , troops and logistics ? Certainly never to destroy the Taliban ?
7-Through the 2008 Elections the USA has already achieved regime change in Pakistan ! Benazir was found tricky and eliminated in JFK style ! A very typical US operation !
8-What is left is the Pakistani military severely cornered with a US threat , an Indian threat and an internal US manipulated threat in shape of insurgencies in NWFP and Balochistan ! How is that before 2002 there was no insurgency and after 2002 everything changed ?
9-The Pakistani nuclear assets are the main US target.
10-It is rather mysterious how the GHQ was attacked, how Punjab was attacked , how the Ahmadis long foregotten were attacked ? All a design to destabilise the Pakistanin state ? Mysterious target killings in Karachi ?
11--The exercise of denuclearising Pakistan is proceeding at a reasonable pace.While the Pakistani civilian government brought by the NRO manoeuvred by USA is fully on US payroll the Pakistani military has so far resisted but it is possible that they too may succumb within next few years.If not internally then finally externally when the USA manipulates India into a major strategic conflict with Pakistan.A manoeuvre which suits India as long as Pakistani first strike does not succeed in reducing to rubble what was once Delhi,Mumbai,Calcutta and Chennai ?
12-The US sees Pakistan balkanised in the next five to ten years as an independent Balochistan, an independent Paskhtunistan, an independent city state of Karachi and an independent Sindh.A denuclearised Punjab and a Northern Areas occupied by China and Pakistani held Kashmir occupied by India.
ANALYSIS
1-Present US strategic position is silent registration of targets in Pakistan,China,Iran,Central Asian States.
2-Russia,China and Iran are now irrevocably convinced that all attempts must be made to ensure that the USA fails in Afghanistan.Thus the increased attempts to logistically bolster all anti US groups.
3-The Pakistani military also realises that the USA must remain unstable in Afghanistan and any US success in Afghanistan would mean end of Pakistan in its present shape.
4-The USA has made an attempt to diversify its logistics into Central Asia to bribe the Central Asian Republics but the Russians know how to checkmate USA.
5-Conversely USA will not succeed in making Afghanistan safe for its oil and gas lines unless Pakistan is balkanised.The US projection for Balkanising Pakistan is from 3 to 5 years.The first to secede in the grand plan would be Balochistan.
6-The conventional part of the US grand manoeuvre against Pakistan would be manipulating India into a conflict with India which the US hopes would lead to a severely damaged and severely destroyed Pakistan and a less damaged India , followed by Pakistans occupation by US Indian forces and complete denuclearisation.
7-China Russia and Iran have the potential to throw a spanner in US plans.So does Pakistan and India if they have the foresight to see US designs.
8-Finally there is the factor X , divine will.Many times I told Nafeesa Hoodhbhoy of VOA Radio on air that USA is not God and all may not happen as USA wants.
The USA needs to realise that in history there always has been a gap bewteen thought and action , plans and their executions,or as they say the cup and the lip ! What the USA seems to be planning is dangerous , rash and contains many seeds of failure. History cannot be unilaterally made by one state , even if it is a great power like USA ? This is the lesson of history ! A lesson that US decision makers need to digest !
When I visited USA four times in between 1996 and 1998 I became convinced that most Americans were good Christians but the US elite was Pagan and Freemasonic at heart !
History is made by complex forces and we hope that the USA goes back in good shape back to US mainland and leaves this region at peace . An uneasy but more stable peace like the one before 9/11.