The Insurgency & the ISI

[ScimitarXEdge]

We are not certain if the main body of the Taliban would be running Afghanistan if the Americans leave because things have changed so much. Currently all the resistance groups have one common goal and that is to take NATO out by force, after that, it is likely they will turn their guns on each other and eventually one group will take over just like it happened during the 90's, it will be bloody.

You're right, there would probably end up being a second civil war, because even amongst Pashtuns, no one will want Taliban riding around in Toyota trucks nagging them about how long their beards are or depriving them their music.

Not all resistance groups have that common goal

Some "resistance" groups are just trying to make sure America keeps tossing money to Pakistan, America just wants to maintain global hegemony, so they want to make sure more brown skinned Muslims die than White Americans; and dont want to sacrifice too much of their own infrastructure; so they wilfully toss the money to Pakistan to keep the mainline Taliban afloat; but it's all to make sure their hegemony stays in tact. The more Taliban do erratic acts of violence without any appropriate strategic planning and by approrpiate not being in civilian dense areas.

People like Mostafa and Toramana don't just pop up, they're created; and part of what gives these guys credibility (albeit on fraudulent terms) is that they can say "oooh look see ..Pakistani ISI" ..but you'll rarely see them criticize CIA/America/NATO manipulations because they have it rationalized that they're needed to "get the Taliban", even though they're central to the Nexus. When a Taliban suicide bombs and only 1 American and 8 Afghans killed, that's used to their favor. You can say ok more people are gradually supporting the Taliban, but still the majority don't, largely for activities like that. Taliban also have to rethink using assassinations and intimidation tactics, Some Traitors can be taken care of Later, I don't oppose the assasination of Wali Karzai; but Assassinating the Mayor of Qandahar? That guy is well loved, regardless of whether he cooperates with the Government. Not everyone who works with the Government wants NATO to occupy Afghanistan, some just dont want more Afghans killed hence they do what they have to to prevent that.

But do the Mainline Taliban get this??? No, and that's not by mistake, that's by design.


The other resistance groups are however resisting, some may identify themselves with Taliban, some may not. However those guys are the real heroes those guys are the True resisters of NATO.

Whatever the case, Pakistani ISI, American CIA/NATO

[ScimitarXEdge]

You also forgot to mention there is a lot of criminal elements such as drug dealers, kidnap for ransom gangs, and also extortionists that hijack construction projects. There are even criminal gangs that get paid by NATO forces in return for not attacking them.

You have to remember when the Taliban regime collapsed, the same criminal enterprise returned to fill in the void like it was before the Taliban. Much of the violence against the civilians is done by the criminal enterprise who are connected to and pay off government officials much like it was before the Taliban and that environment gave rise to the Taliban much like it is doing today. This is the reason why the Taliban are successful in creating a shadow government.

I didnt forget to mention them; I didnt mention them because they're not "resisting" or claim to be "resisting"

Where is the evidence that most of the civilians killed in say a suicide attack is because of Criminal Elements? Why would criminals after money kill themselves when their interests are material?

Are we to just hop on AshrafGhaljay and GraveyardofEmpires ready made response that it's all merely propaganda and lies? Even though the Taliban have CLAIMED responsibility for much of these attacks.

If that's the case then why should we give Taliban credibility for bringing down ISAF Aircraft and Helicopters, that might be all just fabrication too.

You're making stipulations unfounded from the actual data.

I dont doubt for a second that criminal organizations operate in Afghanistan, the Mainline Taliban are profiteering from much of it; in many of those shadow Governments, like in Helmand before the operations in Grishk and Marjah; Taliban was taxing poppy. Although I'm not against Poppy cultivation as long as it's ONLY poppy cultivation and not heroin/opium production and it's environmentally sound. The fact is the Mainline Taliban have as much hand in drug trade as the other criminals.

[khushal]

You're right, there would probably end up being a second civil war, because even amongst Pashtuns, no one will want Taliban riding around in Toyota trucks nagging them about how long their beards are or depriving them their music.

The reason for a new civil war wont be because people are going to be sick of Taliban harassment, but mainly because of a power vacuum. Every one will compete for power and influence. The Taliban never harassed rural people about beard lengths or music. It is very costly both financially and politically to bring enforcement of any law to the rural Afghans and the Americans are realizing this. Their harassment was mainly in the cities especially in Kabul and Mazar.

Not all resistance groups have that common goal

Some "resistance" groups are just trying to make sure America keeps tossing money to Pakistan, America just wants to maintain global hegemony, so they want to make sure more brown skinned Muslims die than White Americans; and dont want to sacrifice too much of their own infrastructure; so they wilfully toss the money to Pakistan to keep the mainline Taliban afloat; but it's all to make sure their hegemony stays in tact. The more Taliban do erratic acts of violence without any appropriate strategic planning and by approrpiate not being in civilian dense areas.

I have a hard time believing Pakistan wants America to stay in Afghanistan indefinitely. Pakistan will get American Aid regardless of what happens in Afghanistan the same reason Egypt, Jordan, the PA, etc. is getting Aid. The main purpose of the Aid is to keep the Pakistani elites in power, its not in exchange for Pakistani support for drone strikes and supply routes so US forces can stay engaged against the Taliban.
I also have a hard time believing that Americas purpose is to kill brown skinned Muslims and save white skinned Americans. I believe the American corporate elite care about neither, its just that the shedding of white skinned blood affects public opinion in America.

People like Mostafa and Toramana don't just pop up, they're created; and part of what gives these guys credibility (albeit on fraudulent terms) is that they can say "oooh look see ..Pakistani ISI" ..but you'll rarely see them criticize CIA/America/NATO manipulations because they have it rationalized that they're needed to "get the Taliban", even though they're central to the Nexus. When a Taliban suicide bombs and only 1 American and 8 Afghans killed, that's used to their favor. You can say ok more people are gradually supporting the Taliban, but still the majority don't, largely for activities like that. Taliban also have to rethink using assassinations and intimidation tactics, Some Traitors can be taken care of Later, I don't oppose the assasination of Wali Karzai; but Assassinating the Mayor of Qandahar? That guy is well loved, regardless of whether he cooperates with the Government. Not everyone who works with the Government wants NATO to occupy Afghanistan, some just dont want more Afghans killed hence they do what they have to to prevent that.

I have to disagree, everyone that works for the Afghan government does want NATO presence because their job would be at stake if NATO leaves since they can not take care of their own security. Every Afghan government worker will be very nervous if NATO decides to unilaterally leave. I do think that most of the Afghan Government workers that left the West to go back and try to rebuild the nation are under the impression that the situation is hopeless. When they go back they see that the criminal warlords are the ones calling the shots and have grassroots support and they(western afghans) have none. Most Afghans see the Western Afghans as soft cowards that ran away instead of staying and defending the country. Most of the western Afghans since they see the situation hopeless(with the cooperation of the warlords) have created an embezzling scheme to make as much money as possible before the inevitable fate is at hand.
Talibans success is not militarily but political. US forces frustration is with locals that refuse to help them. Most Afghans blames civilian casualties on NATO forces even when they know for a fact that the Taliban are responsible. They realize that Talibans actions are a reaction to NATO's presence. NATO's presence is the cause. Most Afghans would rather deal with a civil war than this current situation. Afghans main concerns and hunger for a life without the fear of night raids, a life where their dignity is intact, a life without the fear of bombs falling on their homes, a life where disputes are handled according to customs, a life without a drug infested environment, a life where they themselves rule instead of foreign soldiers ordering them around.

But do the Mainline Taliban get this??? No, and that's not by mistake, that's by design.

The Talibans goal by any means necessary is to prevent the current Afghan government from establishing roots in Afghanistan. They will destroy anything and kill anyone that stands in their way. They will destroy schools and infrastructure which is beneficial to the nation. They will kill people with good intentions and people with selfish intentions.
You say that the Talibans actions are impulsive. Ill share a story.
My grandfather told me that Zahir Shahs government came to the village and built a school for us, he said that they villagers got together and burned it down and beat the workers, I asked him why because you prevented your own education. He said it was because the government didn't ask our permission. He said we didn't care about learning why 9^2=81, we cared about others recognizing our independence. If they had asked our permission with respect, we would have been open to the idea. Was my grandfathers actions impulsive, or did he and the villagers think about this logically.

[khushal]

The answer to your question is

You're presenting a false dichotomy; we said Iran wants to break America's regional threat to their hegemony, not that they want to have them as a Government

when you look at things from that lense then it makes perfect sense as to why Iran would send millions of dollars to "invest" in a cowering Karzai who's benefactors are not dependable and then pay gullible Talibs some cash to fight the Americans.

You can't just discredit news reports just because it doesn't "make sense" to you; because albeit the propaganda game is being played, it is being played from both ends and therefore the Mainline Taliban and their Benefactors have their own propaganda.

Iran believes that it can control the "Taliban problem" because if the Taliban were to turn guns on Iran, since Iran is not bound by any rules of engagement and would just engaging in genocide.

And as your link says, supporting the Taliban isn't the issue for Iran; it's securing their chunk of Afghanistan, the Taliban because of their impulsive based drive and lack of nuanced comprehension, will leap on it, regardless of consequence.

But I digress; however your links actually fit perfectly into the explanation I gave and Also the evidence of Taliban getting Iranian support,.

What your saying is that Iran is interested in creating a controlled chaos in Afghanistan to limit US hegemony. Americas hegemony has already been decreased with these two wars that most experts claim are going to be historical as being the reasons of Americas weakening status.
Iran is interested in an Afghanistan that is similar to Iraq. A stable country with a government that is more loyal to them which will take US soldiers away from their border. The more chaos they create in Afghanistan, the more US soldiers have a reason to be there on their eastern border. That would not be in their interests. They also want stability to tackle the drug trade that has ruined their own youth and want access to the Afghan market for Iranian goods and services.

Iran does not fear the Taliban invading them or turning their guns on Iran. The Taliban are a threat to their influence in Afghanistan. Karzai, the warlords and Shia Hazaras coalition in power is what they need, not controlled chaos. My link says most experts disagree with Gates accusation of Iran helping the Taliban. Arms can come from Iran, they can come from Mars or Jupiter for that matter, but that does not prove anything, criminal enterprise and arms dealers are everywhere. Where there is demand, you will find arms dealers not too far away. There are Arms dealers on the Mexican American border making millions, do you also believe the chaos on the Mexican American border is also controlled chaos created by the Mexican government or US government.

[khushal]

I didnt forget to mention them; I didnt mention them because they're not "resisting" or claim to be "resisting"

Where is the evidence that most of the civilians killed in say a suicide attack is because of Criminal Elements? Why would criminals after money kill themselves when their interests are material?

Are we to just hop on AshrafGhaljay and GraveyardofEmpires ready made response that it's all merely propaganda and lies? Even though the Taliban have CLAIMED responsibility for much of these attacks.

If that's the case then why should we give Taliban credibility for bringing down ISAF Aircraft and Helicopters, that might be all just fabrication too.

You're making stipulations unfounded from the actual data.

I have been to Afghanistan, I have talked to people there and they mostly blame the criminal enterprise for most of the violence. They say the criminal enterprise did not exist when the Taliban ruled and they came in when NATO came in. Ill give you an example of an Afghan Contractor and claimed that criminal gangs threaten him, that they will destroy his contruction equipment, kidnap his workers if they don't get paid weekly. As long as he pays them weekly, they leave him alone. He didn't pay them one week and they destroyed $150,000 worth of contruction equipment and killed one of his workers in the process. He had no choice but to resume the payments.

This is actually a common thing in Afghanistan:
Italy Denies News Report That It Bribed the Taliban - NYTimes.com
The Italians deny it but I believe its true because of my conversation with Afghans on the ground. Extortion, kidnapping, racketeering, opium trade, Government corruption is big business in Afghanistan. This is "resistance" against the stability of Afghanistan. It is people that are involved in this particular "resistance" that benefit from the chaos in the country. The longer Afghanistan is in chaos, The more money they make. The longer NATO forces are in Afghanistan, their riches increase. It is this particular "resistance" that is an obstacle to a stable Afghanistan that is viable. The Afghans want this particular "resistance" to be taken care of and they believe the Taliban are the only ones up for the job because 1) they have done it before and 2)NATO has failed in taking care of this particular "resistance."

I dont doubt for a second that criminal organizations operate in Afghanistan, the Mainline Taliban are profiteering from much of it; in many of those shadow Governments, like in Helmand before the operations in Grishk and Marjah; Taliban was taxing poppy. Although I'm not against Poppy cultivation as long as it's ONLY poppy cultivation and not heroin/opium production and it's environmentally sound. The fact is the Mainline Taliban have as much hand in drug trade as the other criminals.

The Taliban are for the most part against the cultivation of poppy, this is evident as they eliminated it in 2001. The reason most people have gone back to growing poppy is the same reason they started growing them when the Soviet union left, they need money and this is the best way to get it. When the Soviet Union left, the West and Arab states decreased funneling money to the different Majahadeen faction, when the Najib government collapsed, the growing of poppy increased 100 fold because all Aid from the West and the Arab states had dried up and they had to figure a new way to get revenue for their wars with each other. Poppy was their answer much like it is today. They tolerate it as a temporary necessity.