Pakistan charts its own course with Afghanistan

[ghundal]

Pakistan charts its own course with Afghanistan

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Navy Adm. Mike Mullen reviews Pakistani troops. Image via Wikipedia


Fi Co mm pp sd, edi abap and wm
The end game in Afghanistan is on the horizon. This is the beginning of a U.S. military withdrawal from Afghanistan is drawing closer. The July deadline is still sacrosanct. As the US begins its withdrawal in July, and regional powers for influence. Pakistan‘s goal is to keep itself in the central role. The Pakistani military is in good shape consolidating its up ties with Afghanistan to ensure a central role in a negotiated settlement of the conflict. Pakistan boycotted the tir-lateral summit between Washington, Kabul and Islamabad and has apparently stopped all cooperation with the CIA.
Pakistan and Afghanistan took an important step last weekend, agreeing to include Pakistani military and intelligence officials (ISI) in a Bi-National commission seeking peace with the Taliban. This gives the Pakistani security establishment a formal role in any talks between the different Afghan factions.
The Pakistan’s military has had long-running ties with the Afghan National Resistance and various Afghan factions. It has repeatedly said that the road to a settlement of the 10-year conflict in Afghanistan runs through Islamabad. Islamabad is unlikely to countenance an rapprochement with the Taliban without its involvement. This is the Pakistani line in the sand. Pakistan with the active support of the Turks has improved relations with Afghan President Hamid Karzai. To this end, the Taliban are to open an office in Ankara which will eventually be transferred to Kabul.
Prime Minister Gilani recently stated that stability in Pakistan and Afghanistan “will ensure stability in the entire world.” Much to the chagrin of Washinton Pakistan and Afghanistan have agreed to put in place a two-tier mechanism to enhance bilateral cooperation to generate peace and stability in the region. Kabul and Islamabad have agreed on a two-tier mechanism, the first tier, the country’s president, prime minister and the army chief would be in contact with their counterparts in Afghanistan, whereas at the second tier, relations would be established and strengthened between the officials and representatives of army and intelligence agencies of the two countries.
Mr Karzai has responded to the Pakistani military overtures because he saw Islamabad as his hope for survival once the US leaves. Both the US and Bharat had supported his opponent in the last elections–something which he remembers well. Kabul and Islamabad have turned to each other when their own relations with the United States are strained.
U.S. ties with Pakistan have suffered over covert U.S. actions, drone murders, the violation of its sovereignty, and the “Raymond Davis” affair.
Islamabad knows that US will leave in a hurry. Pakistan knows it has to clean up the US mess after it leaves, just as it did following the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan in 1989. The end game has created a sense of urgency in various capitals–Washington, Kabul, London, Islamabad–and as far as Ankara. The flurry of activity has increased exponentially as the July deadline looms ahead.
Pakistan’s had and and still has close relationship with the Pakhtuns (aka Taliban). Pakistani Pakhtuns have deep and profound links with the Afghan Pakhtuns.
Pakistan has been pushing for a coalition government with a sizable Taliban component. The US has been waffling on this, but may have to be happy with the Pakistani suggestion (dealing with Omar and Bokhari) given that a military victory looks impossible.
Pakistan is hell bent on playing a major role, it is overcoming distrust in Afghanistan, working with Turkey working with the Pakhtuns in achieving its aims, including keeping Bharat at bay.
The Pakistanis have clearly informed the Americans to “Respect our efforts if you want to succeed in war on terror”. The anger of the Pakistanis about the drones and the CIA PsyOps is palpable. The Pakistanis want Washington to share intelligence in a better manner to allow the country to wage its own war on terror.
The government is sensitized about public concern arising from such attacks, which also has its effects on the national defence.
He vowed not to compromise on the national interests and said, “If a resolution is passed by parliament regarding the US predator attacks, it would send a strong signal that the whole nation is united against the drone attacks”.

[ghundal]

the end game

[ComradePashtun]

Yeaha right! Non of this, no matter in what shape and form Pakistan happened to cooperate could never have been achieved without Afghanistan's international allies' coercive diplomacy. Karzai would be a fool to not heed this now and in case of any future development in which would be the role of Afghanistan's allies figurative in the region, perhaps for the better untill Afghanistan as a state is no longer vulnerable. Not only against Pakistan but within the region. This is a fact no one can run from. So I would not quite dress this as victory of sort for Pakistan.

As for Pakistan's any game that would run through against the interests of Afghanistan and that of its backers, it would certainly be truncated. Pakistan without a doubt has a leverage but it does not and cannot dictate everything, it is a limited leverage. On the other hand we no longer live in the past, and the truth is, in my view, that Afghanistan would be looking for as much interaction and cooperation with Pakistan as is in Pakistan's case and desire from Afghanistan. So there is nothing that probably Pakistan should be paranoid about. There is 10000 time more to gain in partnership and cooperation than in confrontation, which I am assuming is Afghanistan's vision with all its neighbours.

[ComradePashtun]

Pakistan while presenting itself to be sincere is offering to help in way that in my view is simply artificial if it does not tackle what is a long term solution to Afghanistan's security. The problem is all Pakistan is doing is to circumvent its own agendas and so far it doesn't appear that it is honest. Take for example when in 2005/2006 and beyond it would bring in Kashmir and Baluchistan for a bargain for its role in the security of Afghanistan, then when it used to come under intense pressure it would take couple of actions here and there and then distract every one with how India (boogeman) is involved in terrorism in Pakistan and the Baluchistan insurgency etc. None of this worked.

I am not too optimistic about its current approach too, Gailani flatly denied that there are sancturies of militants in Pakistan something that is well-established and something Pakstan itself have confirmed in the past, thus is not sincere stand. He basically said that when militants are pursued from Afghansitan they retreat to the Pakistani side of the border and Waziristan areas and when Pakistan pursues them they retreat back to Afghanistan. This is indeed fallacious and cometelly non-sense. This shift of not admitting to this truth in yet vigorous manner which is a fundemental issue that shakes the very bases of its relation with its neighbour Afghanistan and U.S. seems plausible. So this leaves one to be suspicious and think that Pakistan might be up to pusruing the nefarious end once again. The problem of santries and violation of Afghanistan's sovereigty is a fundemental issue and is something that shatters hopes of good relations in the minds of not only the government but every Afghan, which must be tackled sincerely by Pakistan. While it could be that all Pakistan is doing is to circumvent its policy of the past with a different tact and to put it midly is simply vindicating its own side of the story and wishes, that should not be acceptable.

But there still remains hope, obviously Pakistan might have its own compulsions too and probably cannot admit certain things for many reasons. On the other hand it is encouraging that its engagement with Afghanistan is at the highest level and moreover the militray the real power is involved directly. It is still to transpire as to how honest Pakistan is with a benifit of doubt.

Any long term solution for the satisfaction of Afghanistan and the world rest on that there no longer risk exists that can threaten Afghanistan's security and stability: that is lawless militant and terrorist sancturies beyond its borders. The international community is rightly pursuing towards this goal and I don't think Afghanistan has any choice to seeing things less than that.


Mullen Talks Tough to Pakistan

By ZAHID HUSSAIN

ISLAMABAD—Adm. Michael Mullen, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, told a Pakistani news channel Wednesday that links between Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence military spy agency and the Haqqani faction of the Taliban were continuing to strain relations between the countries.

Adm. Mullen's comments to GEO TV, a private network, signal that the U.S. is not backing down from an increasingly hostile battle with Pakistan over how to combat Islamist militants who operate on the border with Afghanistan.

"We have strong reservations over the relations of elements of the ISI with the Haqqani network," Adm. Mullen said. He termed the U.S.-Pakistan relationship as "complex" and unlikely to be improved overnight. "There is not a magic solution," he said.

Adm. Mullen's two-day visit to Pakistan, which began Wednesday following a trip to Afghanistan, comes after Pakistan threatened earlier this month to reduce the number of Central Intelligence Agency operatives allowed to operate in the country after Raymond Davis, a CIA contractor, shot dead two armed men in January in the Pakistani city of Lahore. Mr. Davis was arrested and only released after the U.S. agreed to pay compensation to the dead men's relatives.

Islamabad also has begun publicly to oppose the CIA's campaign of unmanned drone strikes against militant targets in Pakistan's tribal regions bordering Afghanistan. Pakistan's army chief, Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, last month condemned a drone strike that killed more than 40 people, saying that it hit civilians and that the attacks were hurting Pakistan's own war against militants.

U.S. officials say civilian deaths are small. Adm. Mullen's comments about the ISI's continued links with the Haqqani network show how the U.S. is keeping up the pressure on Pakistan to clamp down on militant safe havens as it prepares to begin a gradual draw-down of troops from Afghanistan starting in July.

The Haqqani network is a group based in Pakistan's North Waziristan tribal region that regularly attacks U.S. forces in Afghanistan—including a December 2009 strike on a CIA base that killed seven of the agency's staff.

The U.S. believes some elements within the ISI continue to help the group as a way of influencing events in Afghanistan once the U.S. pulls out.
The ISI denies it is aiding the Haqqani network and says the reason it can't launch an attack on their bases in North Waziristan is because the army is tied down fighting militants elsewhere.

Adm. Mullen is viewed as one of the most ardent proponents within the Obama administration for dialog with Pakistan. He has spoken highly of Gen. Kayani in the past and the two are said to have a strong working relationship.

But his statement ahead of a meeting with Gen. Kayani on Wednesday, "will not help improve the atmosphere," said a Pakistani security official. " We have our own priorities and cannot launch an operation in North Waziristan on American pressure."

Despite problems in the relationship, neither side is willing to jettison it completely. Pakistan relies on billions of dollars in U.S. military and civilian aid. The U.S. needs Pakistan to continue to fight militants, and it uses Pakistan as a transit route for supplies to troops in Afghanistan.

On Thursday, Salman Bashir, Pakistan's foreign secretary, will hold meetings with U.S. officials in Washington in another effort to get relations back on track. Mr. Bashir is expected to discuss a U.S. visit by Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari, which was scheduled for March but delayed by the incident involving Mr. Davis, the CIA contractor.

However, a Pakistan military official said relations won't improve as long as the U.S. continues unilaterally to operate drone strikes on Pakistan soil and run undeclared CIA agents in the country. "There cannot be any improvement in relations until the U.S. agrees to new rules of engagement," the official said.

Last week, a meeting between ISI chief Gen. Ahmed Shuja Pasha and CIA Director Leon Panetta in Washington failed to improve relations.
"It is the time that we redefine our relations with the United States," said the security official.