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Salamoona,
One of the hallmarks of Neoconservatism is its utter lack of reality in comprehending the complexity of imposing democracy. This less than pragmatic approach to re-establishing the world order has created a big mess in Africa and the Arab world, with Libya next on Bill Kristol's unabatable radar for such interventionalism that will yield disasters for the US.
When it comes to the Pashtunistan issue, or Loya Afghanistan, I've seen this same sort of misplaced sentiment and lack of pragmatism.
But, I want to understand, as maybe, some of the trumpeters of the cause have some access to evidence that I do not have. And when I say evidence, I do not mean Farhat Taj ANDERSEN hit pieces, or some garbage out of the annals of Surkh Posh, or whatever else these folks pass off as evidence.
Nor, do I want the answer: Well gee wiz, the surveys do not exist... but we are pretty sure that this is the case. If anecdote is given, at least buttress it for me with some logic.
Let me clarify my view as I expect some folks will initiate a barrage of Paki this, Ikhwan that, etc. and I urge moderators to immediatly delete these posts to ensure that the discussion stays on course.
1. I think 99% of people here, including myself want a Pashtunistan to be created.
2. Despite the desires for the outcome in point 1, I tend to see a less than ready populace on the KP side of the durand line.
3. BLS Saab has indicated that if the Pakistani confederacy breaks down the KP Pashtuns would have no choice but to join a greater Afghanistan.
4. Point 3 is not convincing to me, because it relies on what I described above regarding a neoconservative type, guess-game approach to outcomes that is non evidence derived. It is magical thinking that relies on the "what ifs" more than the "how to." That sort of guessing game yields massacres and genocide as we witnessed in Iraq.
Let us run with the assumption that the Pakistani confederacy survives... or let us delve into the current status quo situation. What I want to see addressed is the situation on the ground in KP regarding sentiments of a loya Afghanistan or a separated Pashtunistan.
I refer you to this paper created for the British Parliament.
http://www.parliament.uk/briefingpap...0/RP10-045.pdf
Here are some excerpts:
"There are claims that nationalist sentiment is still bubbling just beneath the surface in the Pashtun areas of Afghanistan and Pakistan, and that whatever popular support there is for the Afghan and Pakistan Taliban among Pashtuns is based more on this sentiment than on a deep and abiding attraction to jihadi militancy." (page 76)
"Other commentators are much less persuaded that most ordinary Pashtuns are strongly motivated by nationalism. While there is no disputing that Pashtuns share a common cultural identity and a hostility to ‘foreign domination’, the same culture promotes internal rivalries as much as co-operation. When it does occur, the invocation of a common political identity may reflect pragmatic calculation as much as principle. By this analysis, the recent decision to rename NWFP in Pakistan ‘Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa’ (Khyber side of the land of the Pashtuns), which was supported by many Pakistani Pashtun politicians, can be viewed as reflecting an acknowledgement that unity for the entire ‘Pashtun nation’ is neither realistic nor a priority. This is despite the fact that opponents of the proposal have warned that a ‘trojan horse’ has been built that could lead to the eventual break-up of Pakistan. At first sight, given that the renaming does not even involve the FATA, the change does not much look like Pashtun nationalism ‘on the move’." (page 78)
"If a fully independent Pakhtunkhwa – one that dissolves the Durand Line – is ever to emerge, Afghan Pashtuns would have to make a decisive break with the Afghan state. Equally likely (or unlikely, depending on your view) might be an attempt to reunify the Pashtuns within a ‘Greater Afghanistan’. Non-Pashtuns on both sides of the border would be highly unlikely to accept attempted Pashtun secession meekly. In Pakistan, it could give encouragement to other discontented ethnic groups to seek the same – for example, the Baluchis, with whom the Pashtuns could well end up vying for territory.
The US, along with those coalition allies willing to go along with such a scheme, would also probably have to be prepared to act as the security guarantors of an independent Pashtunistan, perhaps as they have effectively done with regard to (semi-independent) Iraqi Kurdistan. Neither the US nor the UK has given any indication that they would support redrawing the border, let alone back the creation of a Pashtunistan independent of both Pakistan and Afghanistan.366 This is certainly not the purpose of the US’s AfPak policy."
With this in mind, I will stay silent due to my own paucity of information/evidence on the issue, but pose the question to all comers, regarding the majority and practical sentiments in Khybar Pashtunkhwa towards a loya Afghanistan or an independent Pashtunistan.
I prefer that the answers do not simply dismiss reasonable evidence, such as the large contingent of Pashtuns in the volunteer Pakistani army, as rubbish when there is really no reason to refer to such good empirical evidences as "rubbish" except to deflate evidence that one cannot counter.
The motive for this discussion? Despite what Toramana will tell you, and trust me he will post here attempting to label the argument to derail it, this is not an attempt to construct a Pakistani centric policy towards Pashtunkhwa. Rather, it is an attempt to embrance reality and to truly re-approach the problem via a practical maneuver as opposed to magical thinking.
If, per the evidence, the reality falls in the direction that some 75% or even 51% of Pakistan's Pashtuns are ready, willing, and able to forge that joint destinity, then by all means, let us endorse such a joyous reality.
If however, the reality is what it appears to be (one that Luffy has asserted and reasserted: that the Pashtuns of Pashtunkhwa are focused on their own destiny and then that of the Pakistani state... then let us realize this reality as well and plan accordingly.
One individual on here who has taken it all in stride and who has no religious affiliations with me is Ghaznavi. I think his credentials speak for themselves, and his last post here shows that he truly understands what I am asserting. Being confident in his self, he chose to not see the demons hiding under the proverbial Islamic bed, nor the closet Paki hiding in anyone that disagrees because reality offers more evidence than ideologism (take a look at his last post):
http://www.pashtunforums.com/politic...2/index11.html
http://www.pashtunforums.com/politic...unistan-11941/
Then also refer here to the amount of filth that was thrown his way for making an astute, but honest assessment on the matter:
http://www.pashtunforums.com/politic...han-war-12399/
So I urge an evidence base response to show me contrary to what my experience on the ground, and my readings above point out.
Once again, to those folks that suddenly become emotion and red in the face wanting to shout out regarding land rights issues, the question of where the KP Pashtuns prefer to land in terms of their national identity is not a commentary on any of these issues... so please, do not take offense.
Once we recognizes the practical challenges, we can implement planning that takes reality into account.
Until then, I will have to assume that this quote defines an element of reality:
"The army has a total of 480,000 soldiers, of whom the percentage of Punjabis is 55.82 percent, Pakhtuns 15.42 percent, Baloch 2.34 percent, Sindhis 15.09 percent and people from Pakistan administer Kashmir/Gilgit-Baltistan are 8.48 percent."
More at : Pakistan Army attempts to strike ethnic balance http://www.thaindian.com/newsportal/...#ixzz1HkO9cIDs
http://www.pashtunforums.com/politic...unistan-11941/
The Egyptian facebook revolution showed that electronic media is a very potent uniting tool. If utilized correctly, with reality defined parameters, this wonderful tool that Admin Khan Sadozai has provided can serve a very good purpose for Pashtuns as well.
One of the hallmarks of Neoconservatism is its utter lack of reality in comprehending the complexity of imposing democracy. This less than pragmatic approach to re-establishing the world order has created a big mess in Africa and the Arab world, with Libya next on Bill Kristol's unabatable radar for such interventionalism that will yield disasters for the US.
When it comes to the Pashtunistan issue, or Loya Afghanistan, I've seen this same sort of misplaced sentiment and lack of pragmatism.
But, I want to understand, as maybe, some of the trumpeters of the cause have some access to evidence that I do not have. And when I say evidence, I do not mean Farhat Taj ANDERSEN hit pieces, or some garbage out of the annals of Surkh Posh, or whatever else these folks pass off as evidence.
Nor, do I want the answer: Well gee wiz, the surveys do not exist... but we are pretty sure that this is the case. If anecdote is given, at least buttress it for me with some logic.
Let me clarify my view as I expect some folks will initiate a barrage of Paki this, Ikhwan that, etc. and I urge moderators to immediatly delete these posts to ensure that the discussion stays on course.
1. I think 99% of people here, including myself want a Pashtunistan to be created.
2. Despite the desires for the outcome in point 1, I tend to see a less than ready populace on the KP side of the durand line.
3. BLS Saab has indicated that if the Pakistani confederacy breaks down the KP Pashtuns would have no choice but to join a greater Afghanistan.
4. Point 3 is not convincing to me, because it relies on what I described above regarding a neoconservative type, guess-game approach to outcomes that is non evidence derived. It is magical thinking that relies on the "what ifs" more than the "how to." That sort of guessing game yields massacres and genocide as we witnessed in Iraq.
Let us run with the assumption that the Pakistani confederacy survives... or let us delve into the current status quo situation. What I want to see addressed is the situation on the ground in KP regarding sentiments of a loya Afghanistan or a separated Pashtunistan.
I refer you to this paper created for the British Parliament.
http://www.parliament.uk/briefingpap...0/RP10-045.pdf
Here are some excerpts:
"There are claims that nationalist sentiment is still bubbling just beneath the surface in the Pashtun areas of Afghanistan and Pakistan, and that whatever popular support there is for the Afghan and Pakistan Taliban among Pashtuns is based more on this sentiment than on a deep and abiding attraction to jihadi militancy." (page 76)
"Other commentators are much less persuaded that most ordinary Pashtuns are strongly motivated by nationalism. While there is no disputing that Pashtuns share a common cultural identity and a hostility to ‘foreign domination’, the same culture promotes internal rivalries as much as co-operation. When it does occur, the invocation of a common political identity may reflect pragmatic calculation as much as principle. By this analysis, the recent decision to rename NWFP in Pakistan ‘Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa’ (Khyber side of the land of the Pashtuns), which was supported by many Pakistani Pashtun politicians, can be viewed as reflecting an acknowledgement that unity for the entire ‘Pashtun nation’ is neither realistic nor a priority. This is despite the fact that opponents of the proposal have warned that a ‘trojan horse’ has been built that could lead to the eventual break-up of Pakistan. At first sight, given that the renaming does not even involve the FATA, the change does not much look like Pashtun nationalism ‘on the move’." (page 78)
"If a fully independent Pakhtunkhwa – one that dissolves the Durand Line – is ever to emerge, Afghan Pashtuns would have to make a decisive break with the Afghan state. Equally likely (or unlikely, depending on your view) might be an attempt to reunify the Pashtuns within a ‘Greater Afghanistan’. Non-Pashtuns on both sides of the border would be highly unlikely to accept attempted Pashtun secession meekly. In Pakistan, it could give encouragement to other discontented ethnic groups to seek the same – for example, the Baluchis, with whom the Pashtuns could well end up vying for territory.
The US, along with those coalition allies willing to go along with such a scheme, would also probably have to be prepared to act as the security guarantors of an independent Pashtunistan, perhaps as they have effectively done with regard to (semi-independent) Iraqi Kurdistan. Neither the US nor the UK has given any indication that they would support redrawing the border, let alone back the creation of a Pashtunistan independent of both Pakistan and Afghanistan.366 This is certainly not the purpose of the US’s AfPak policy."
With this in mind, I will stay silent due to my own paucity of information/evidence on the issue, but pose the question to all comers, regarding the majority and practical sentiments in Khybar Pashtunkhwa towards a loya Afghanistan or an independent Pashtunistan.
I prefer that the answers do not simply dismiss reasonable evidence, such as the large contingent of Pashtuns in the volunteer Pakistani army, as rubbish when there is really no reason to refer to such good empirical evidences as "rubbish" except to deflate evidence that one cannot counter.
The motive for this discussion? Despite what Toramana will tell you, and trust me he will post here attempting to label the argument to derail it, this is not an attempt to construct a Pakistani centric policy towards Pashtunkhwa. Rather, it is an attempt to embrance reality and to truly re-approach the problem via a practical maneuver as opposed to magical thinking.
If, per the evidence, the reality falls in the direction that some 75% or even 51% of Pakistan's Pashtuns are ready, willing, and able to forge that joint destinity, then by all means, let us endorse such a joyous reality.
If however, the reality is what it appears to be (one that Luffy has asserted and reasserted: that the Pashtuns of Pashtunkhwa are focused on their own destiny and then that of the Pakistani state... then let us realize this reality as well and plan accordingly.
One individual on here who has taken it all in stride and who has no religious affiliations with me is Ghaznavi. I think his credentials speak for themselves, and his last post here shows that he truly understands what I am asserting. Being confident in his self, he chose to not see the demons hiding under the proverbial Islamic bed, nor the closet Paki hiding in anyone that disagrees because reality offers more evidence than ideologism (take a look at his last post):
http://www.pashtunforums.com/politic...2/index11.html
http://www.pashtunforums.com/politic...unistan-11941/
Then also refer here to the amount of filth that was thrown his way for making an astute, but honest assessment on the matter:
http://www.pashtunforums.com/politic...han-war-12399/
So I urge an evidence base response to show me contrary to what my experience on the ground, and my readings above point out.
Once again, to those folks that suddenly become emotion and red in the face wanting to shout out regarding land rights issues, the question of where the KP Pashtuns prefer to land in terms of their national identity is not a commentary on any of these issues... so please, do not take offense.
Once we recognizes the practical challenges, we can implement planning that takes reality into account.
Until then, I will have to assume that this quote defines an element of reality:
"The army has a total of 480,000 soldiers, of whom the percentage of Punjabis is 55.82 percent, Pakhtuns 15.42 percent, Baloch 2.34 percent, Sindhis 15.09 percent and people from Pakistan administer Kashmir/Gilgit-Baltistan are 8.48 percent."
More at : Pakistan Army attempts to strike ethnic balance http://www.thaindian.com/newsportal/...#ixzz1HkO9cIDs
http://www.pashtunforums.com/politic...unistan-11941/
The Egyptian facebook revolution showed that electronic media is a very potent uniting tool. If utilized correctly, with reality defined parameters, this wonderful tool that Admin Khan Sadozai has provided can serve a very good purpose for Pashtuns as well.
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