Tweet
Economic Survey launched
Complete detail of Budget
Complete detail of Budget
-
"[B][SIZE="3"]Seer Speen Wazeer[/SIZE][/B]" -
4.14pc GDP growth recorded, highest since 2008-09
ISLAMABAD: Admitting failure towards achieving the economic targets set for the outgoing fiscal year 2013-14, Finance Minister Senator Ishaq Dar on Monday released the Pakistan Economic Survey, a pre-budget document saying the country, however, provisionally achieved 4.14 per cent GDP growth rate.
He will also present the second budget by the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) government in the National Assembly on Tuesday.
The pre-budget document highlights the overall performance of economy during the outgoing fiscal year, providing a realistic feedback and basis for planning.
Launching the survey at a press conference, he said this is less than the targeted 4.14 per cent but it is for the first time in six years that the country has entered the territory of four per cent growth this year.
And, the GDP growth rate would be increased one per cent each during the next three years taking it to 7 per cent in 2017. Similarly, the industrial growth has been recorded at 5.84 per cent as against 1.37 per cent last year.
The minister also said that the large-scale manufacturing recorded growth of 5.135 per cent as against 4.08 per cent last year. He said electricity generation and gas distribution growth last year was minus 16.33 per cent and this year it has grown by 3.72 per cent.
Construction recorded growth of 11.31 per cent this year as against minus 1.685 per cent last year while wholesale and retail trade increased by 5.181 per cent as against 3.38 per cent last year, he said.
Ishaq Dar said that transport and communication recorded growth of 2.89 per cent as against 2.88 per cent last year while agriculture sector showed growth of 2.12pc against 2.88pc last year.
Major crops showed growth of 3.74 per cent as compared to 1.19pc last year. Wheat production this year is 25.29 million tonnes as compared 24.21 million tonnes last year, he said.
Rice production this year stood at 6.8 million tonnes as against 5.54 million tonnes; sugarcane 66.47 million tonnes as compared to 63.75 million tonnes last year and maize production this year is 4.531 million ronnes as against 4.22 million tonnes last year.
Provisional estimates of cotton production this year are 12.77 million bales as against 13.03 million bales last year. Similarly, grams and oil seeds recorded growth of minus 3.52 per cent.
The minister said inflation in the first eleven months of the current financial year was 8.6 per cent as against 7.5pc last year.
Exports in ten months of the outgoing financial year stood at $21 billion as against $20.1 billion last year, showing an increase of 900 million dollars.
Ishaq Dar said the grant of GSP Plus concession by the European Union has started impacting our textile sector positively as it grew by 7 per cent in value terms.
According to the survey, imports in ten months of the outgoing financial year stood at $37.1 billion as against $36.7 billion last year, indicating 1.2 per cent increase. The minister said there was a significant increase in import of plant and machinery which was a positive indication.
Workers' remittances in ten months of current financial year reached $12.9 billion as against $11.6 billion last year, showing a growth of 11.5pc. Foreign investment this year stood at $2.979 billion against $1.277 billion last year.
Foreign exchange reserves presently stood at $13.63 billion against $11.4 billion dollar last year, said the minister.
The survey further unveiled that per capita income this year has increased to $1,386 from $1,339 last year. Stock market crossed 29,700 points and its capitalisation increased by about 38 per cent. Tax revenue as percentage of GDP this year is 7pc as against 6.8pc last year.
Non-tax revenue as percentage of GDP remains at 2.7pc while total expenditure as percentage of GDP reduced to 12.9pc from 14.8pc last year.
Development expenditure this year as percentage of GDP was 2.2 per cent as against 2pc last year. Fiscal deficit in first ten months was 3.2 per cent as compared to 4.7pc last year.
The finance minister further said that FBR tax collections in 11 months have grown by 16.4 per cent.
Ishaq Dar said the State Bank of Pakistan’s borrowing last year was Rs416.8 billion, but this year the government paid back Rs10.5 billion to the bank.
Hinting an increase in the defence budget, he said the PML-N government has made the defence of the country invincible.
To a question, he said major incentives will be given to the private sector to restore the confidence of the investors.
Dar dispelled the impression that the federal developmental projects were all Central Punjab specific, adding that major development projects were being executed in all parts of the country.
To another question, he said SROs will be rolled out in the next three years.
The minister said that Rs75 billion have been allocated for the Benazir Income Support Programme during the current year and an increase in the allocation is expected for the next year.
It is estimated that around 900,000 jobs will be created in the next four years after the introduction of G-3 and G-4 spectrum, said the finance minister.
– Sohail Iqbal Bhatti contributed to the reporting of this story
"[B][SIZE="3"]Seer Speen Wazeer[/SIZE][/B]" -
Economic Survey 2013-4: Industrial sector records growth of 5.8pc
ISLAMABAD: The industrial sector recorded a robust growth of 5.8 per cent during the first nine months of this fiscal year compared to 1.4pc in the corresponding period of last fiscal year, says Economic Survey 2013-14 on Monday.
The industrial sector contributes around 20.8pc to GDP; it is also a major source of tax revenue for the government apart from creating significant job opportunities.
The manufacturing, which is the most important sub-sector of industrial sector with 64.92pc share in the overall industrial sector, grew by 5.55pc during the period under review compared to 4.53pc in the same period last fiscal year.
Manufacturing has three sub-components led by Large-Scale Manufacturing (LSM) with share of 52.45pc, Small Scale Manufacturing (SSM) 7.97pc and slaughtering 4.49pc.
However, those sectors which recorded negative growth in July-March 2013-14 period included engineering products 21.40pc, wood products 8.91pc, pharmaceuticals 0.49pc and automobiles 0.01pc.The electricity generation and gas distribution grew by 3.72pc in the period under review compared to negative growth of 16.33pc last year.
LSM registered an improved growth of 5.31 percent as compared to the growth of 4.08pc last year, the economic survey said.
The LSM sector posted a growth of 4.3pc as compared to 3.5pc in the same period last year.
The survey added that positive growth of LSM was witnessed in fertilisers sector at 21.64pc, leather products 12.96pc, rubber products 9.48pc, paper and board 8.03pc, food beverages and tobacco 7.78pc, coke and petroleum products 7.48pc, chemicals 6.71pc, iron and steel products 3.38pc, electronics 2.91pc, textile 1.44pc and non-metallic mineral products 0.15pc.
Construction, another key segment with 11.48pc share in industrial sector, expanded by 11.31pc against negative growth of 1.68pc last year. “This is also the highest ever growth achieved by the sector since 2008-09,” the survey added.
Mining and quarrying sub-sector witnessed a growth of 4.43pc as compared to 3.84pc last year.
The small scale manufacturing witnessed a growth at 8.35pc against the growth of 8.28pc last year and slaughtering growth is recorded at 3.51pc as compared to 3.6pc.
Published in Dawn, June 3rd, 2014ISLAMABAD: Launching the Pakistan Economic Survey for 2013-14, Finance Minister Ishaq Dar played down the government’s missed targets, saying that it had “achieved 90 per cent” of the targets it set for itself.
Mr Dar said the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz government had spent its first year fire-fighting to show those who had predicted a default that they were wrong. Work to revive the nation’s economy would begin in earnest next year, the roadmap for which would be presented in the budget on Tuesday.
He said the national economy grew by 4.14 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) against a target of 4.4 per cent and last year’s revised growth rate of 3.7 per cent. “For the first time in six years, the growth rate moved past the 4 per cent mark and if you are still not satisfied, we are ready to do more,” he told reporters on Monday.
But this is not entirely accurate, as the economic survey from 2009-10 put the economic growth rate at 4.1 per cent, which was revised below 4 per cent the year before that. A former government official pointed out that the growth rate in FY2013-14 was likely to face downward revision to about 3.8 per cent because the government had taken large-scale manufacturing (LSM) growth at 5.3 per cent for the July-March period instead of the 4.7 per cent that was reported in the first 10 months of FY2013-14.
Dar touts GDP growth rate and performance of industry and stock market as successes
When asked for details, the finance minister refused to go into the specifics, but said that he could arrange a special briefing with the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics to explain these issues in some detail.
Simultaneously, the minister tried to manage expectations for the coming year. “We may have to revise our strategy of setting difficult targets. Next year’s targets may not be as aggressive,” he said, articulating a decision already made by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to set next year’s economic growth target at 5.1 per cent of the GDP instead of the 5.5 per cent originally discussed with the International Monetary Fund.
He said the growth rate would be improved at the rate of 1 per cent every year, culminating in 6 per cent growth by 2015-16 and 7 per cent by 2016-17.
The minister said the industrial sector grew by 5.84 per cent of the GDP against a nominal growth of 1.37 per cent in the previous fiscal year. A major factor in this was the improved supply of electricity and gas following the resolution of the circular debt issue.
A 5.31 per cent increase in LSM, against last year’s 4.08 per cent, also contributed towards this growth.
The minister also played up improvements in the construction sector, which posted a growth of 11.3 per cent this year as against a 6.15 per cent decline last year.
The services sector, Mr Dar said, grew by 4.29 per cent as compared to last year’s figures of 4.85 per cent. He attributed the decline to a 30 per cent cut in general services by the government through expenditure control. He said the real impact of services sector reforms was expected next year as they required a longer gestation period.
On the agriculture front, the minister conceded the government had been lacking and promised to analyse its weaknesses and address them in the upcoming budget. He said the sector grew by 2.12 per cent against 2.88 per cent growth achieved last year. The agriculture growth target was set at 3.8 per cent for FY2013-14.
He attributed this weak performance to a drop in cotton production, which stood at 12.77 million bales this year as compared to 13.03 million bales produced last year. Some minor crops also showed decline, but a rise in wheat, rice and sugarcane production balanced things out.
The minister said inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, rose by 8.69 per cent in the first 10 months of FY2013-14, against a 7.75 per cent rise last year. This year’s target at 8 per cent was missed. He said the core inflation grew by 8.24 per cent in 10 months against 9.91 per cent of last year.
Mr Dar, however, claimed victory on this front saying that international institutions were projecting inflation at 12 per cent following an increase in oil and electricity prices, but the inflation was contained to a single digit due to the appreciation of the Pakistani Rupee, reduced government borrowing and an improved monetary policy.
The current account deficit increased to $2.162 billion in the first 10 months of FY2013-14, against $1.574 billion last year. This was, however, supported by a robust 11.5 per cent growth in remittances from overseas Pakistanis.
He said foreign investment flows into Pakistan stood at $2.98 billion over the first 10 months of FY2013-14, including $2 billion in Eurobonds against last year’s foreign investment of $1.277 billion.
The minister said the per capita income in dollars recorded a growth of 3.5 per cent as compared to 1.44 per cent last year. The per capita income stood at $1,386 this year as opposed to $1,339 last year.
He said the stock market index, which stood at 19,916 basis points on election day, May 11, 2013, had now risen to 29,700. While total investment increased in absolute numbers, the government missed the target set for investment-to-GDP ratio, achieving 14 per cent against a target of 15.1 per cent.
National savings were expected to grow by 14 per cent of the GDP in FY2013-14 but ended up at 12.9 per cent of the GDP, lower even than last year’s 13.5 per cent national savings-to-GDP ratio.
He said the fiscal deficit had been contained at 3.2 percent of the GDP in the first nine months of FY2013-14, against 4.7 per cent in the same period the previous year."[B][SIZE="3"]Seer Speen Wazeer[/SIZE][/B]"Comment
-
"[B][SIZE="3"]Seer Speen Wazeer[/SIZE][/B]"Comment
Comment