Population of Afghanistan

[یاسمینه]

Does anyone has reliable and reasonable information about population of Afghanistan (not only Pashtuns)?

What I recently found (mid-July) is that according to Afghan Directorate of Census, Afghan population is 26.5 million (based on the pilot phase of a census which has been conducted over four years). I didn't found more detailed data. I even don't know if such data has been published.

Also data from Human Development Report for 2010 says that the number is 29.1 million.

But comparing these data with data from before Soviet invasion (most of them estimated the pouplation ~ 13-15 million) it looks a bit unbeliveable. I mean the fact that population could double in more than 30 years of warfare.
Taking into account natural deaths and as a result of hostilities, natural growth, exodus at the beginning of 80's and returns from 2002 till mid 2011 (~ 4,5 million registered returns) it is still hard to believe. I would say that about 18 million is max (or maybe I ovelooked some factors?).

I also heard that Afghanistan government agencies tend to overstate the population to get more funds from international aid. I don't know if it's true.

[Manzareh]

wow those figures sound really low considering thers citys in india and pakistan that have the amounts of population that the whole of afghanistan has.

[Shayesta]

Sixty percent of Afghanistan is covered by mountains. Yes, sixty percent. The remaining forty percent is covered by inhabitants who are said to be not much more than 30 million. Before the wars it was said the total population of the country was over forty million.

[Amir al Ghaznavi]

Sixty percent of Afghanistan is covered by mountains. Yes, sixty percent. The remaining forty percent is covered by inhabitants who are said to be not much more than 30 million. Before the wars it was said the total population of the country was over forty million.

uh no....

[یاسمینه]

Could you tell me sth more about these sources saying that population was over 40 million?
The data I have comes from Afghan CSO from 1979 and says that the population was about 13.1 million. In fact all data related to population of Afghanistan coming from 1960 - 1979 looks consistent. Even Afghan historian Ghulam Mohammad Ghobar, at the end of 60's estimated population of Afghanistan at 15,3 million. Numbers vary slighty from 13 - 16 milion (I' am talking only about the data I read). Your number differs significantly, that's why I'd like to know the source it comes from.

Geographical accessibility in Afghanistan plus mentality of habitants of rural area is another issue. I know from some interviewers from Afghanistan that number of family members is very often overstated and sometimes only number of male family members is given. I don't say if it's good or not. Just a fact.

I know methodology of surveys, including census methodology and that's why I think that numbers related to Afghanistan in many cases base rather on estimations. On the other hand estimates are better than missing data.

[randolph85]

we can only guess but it is said to be around 30 million today.

[یاسمینه]

Randolph - that's what I know but I stuck trying to understand this double growth... and I can't see any explanation.

[randolph85]

i think its all educated guesswork until there is a proper census, which will be hard considering the inaccessibility of many parts of the country and there being no forms of proper documentation for people.

[یاسمینه]

Population of Afghanistan - numbers and sources

[randolph85]

most of these figures were taken during times of extreme instability, the results are questionable at best.

[Purple]

Afghanistan has 32 million pop

[یاسمینه]

any sources to these 32 million?

[Al Hanif]

Taking into account natural deaths and as a result of hostilities, natural growth, exodus at the beginning of 80's and returns from 2002 till mid 2011 (~ 4,5 million registered returns) it is still hard to believe. I would say that about 18 million is max (or maybe I ovelooked some factors?).

"Afghanistan has a current growth rate of 4.8%, representing a doubling time of 14.5 years! If Afghanistan's growth rate remained the same (which is very unlikely and the country's projected growth rate for 2025 is a mere 2.3%), then the population of 30 million would become 60 million in 2020, 120 million in 2035, 280 million in 2049, 560 million in 2064, and 1.12 billion in 2078! "

source :
Population Growth - Overview of Population Growth Rates


Nothing incredible here. Have you ever been to Afghanistan ?

I heard that women have 9 kids in average.

Imagine a man and a woman before the war have 9 children.

5 boys and 4 girls.

2 older boys are killed in action

1 boy left Afghanistan to immigrate in UK

2 girls are dead of diseases

That remains 2 boys and 2 girls.

There was 1 man and 1 woman before the Afghan-Soviet war.

There are 2 men and 2 women after the Afghan-Soviet war.

So the population has doubled.

About women having 9 kids in average, here's what wikipedia says :



Here's what UNICEF says :

UNICEF - Afghanistan - Statistics

Total fertility rate, 1970
7.7
Total fertility rate, 1990
8
Total fertility rate, 2009
6.5

And like Dr. Zakir Naik says : Hope that answers your question.

[IamDZJ]

I know we have had this never ending war going on forever, affecting our mortality rate drastically but I seriously wish the government would step in and do something about this population issue. ( yes, I see it as an issue..) We should focus on providing a better life quality to the children that we have rather than multiplying brain dead zombies and brocolies who are out to destroy each other.

[Talal]

im trying to find some sort of data, truth be told there hasn't been a census in Afghanistan in long time and its mainly due to the demographics. Most of the population lives in rural areas so its very hard to do effect ground based research. One thing however, and this is alarming the Infant Mortality Rate is like 152 ! thats a crazy number meaning out of 1000 child births 152 die under the age of 1

And the IMR in pashtun dominated areas is probably vastly different, so this might eventually even effect the ethnic balance within the country