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Mental illness, poverty haunted Afghan policewoman who killed American
By Michael Georgy and Mirwais Harooni | Reuters
KABUL (Reuters) - The Afghan policewoman suspected of killing a U.S. contractor at police headquarters in Kabul suffered from mental illness and was driven to suicidal despair by poverty, her children told Reuters on Wednesday.
The woman was identified by authorities as Narges Rezaeimomenabad, a 40-year-old grandmother and mother of three who moved here from Iran 10 years ago and married an Afghan man.
On Monday morning, she loaded a pistol in a bathroom at the police compound, hid it in her long scarf and shot an American police trainer, apparently becoming the first Afghan woman to carry out such an attack.
Narges also tried to shoot police officials after killing the American. Luckily for them, her pistol jammed. Her husband is also under investigation.
Her son Sayed, 16, and daughter Fatima, 13, described how they tried to call their parents 100 times after news broke of the shooting, then waited in vain for them to come home.
They recalled Narges's severe mood swings, and how at times she beat them and even pulled out a knife. But the children said she was consistent in bemoaning poverty.
"She was usually complaining about poverty. She was complaining to my father about our conditions. She was saying that my father was poor," Sayid said in an interview in their damp, cold two-room cement house.
On the floor beside him were his mother's prescriptions and a thick plastic bag filled with pills she tried to swallow to end the misery about a month ago. On another occasion, she cut her wrist with a razor, Sayed said.
"My father was usually calm and sometimes would say that she was guilty too because it wasn't a forced marriage. They fell in love and got married."
There was no sign in their neighborhood of the billions of dollars of Western aid that have poured into Afghanistan since the ouster of the Taliban in 2001, or of government investment.
RAW SEWAGE, STAGNANT WATER, DIRT ROADS
The lane outside their home stank of raw sewage.
Dirty, stagnant water filled holes in dirt roads nearby, where children in tattered clothes played and butchers stood by cow's hooves in shops choked by dust.
Afghanistan is one of the world's poorest nations, with a third of its 30 million residents living under the poverty line.
The sole distractions from the daily grind appeared to be a deck of playing cards and a compact disc with songs from Iranian pop singers, scattered on the floor of a room where Narges would lock herself in and weep, or sit in silence.
At times, Narges would try to focus on building her children's confidence, telling them to be guided by the Muslim holy book, the Koran, to tackle life's problems.
Sayed and Fatima said she never spoke badly of the U.S. presence in Afghanistan or of President Hamid Karzai's government.
Neighbor Mohammad Ismail Kohistani was dumbfounded to hear on the radio that Afghan officials were combing Narges' phone records to try to determine whether al Qaeda or the Taliban could have brainwashed her into carrying out a mission.
But he was acutely aware of her mental problems and often heard her scream at her husband, whose low-level job in the crime investigation unit of the police brought home little cash.
Kohistani, who operates a small sewing shop with battered machines, never imagined his neighbor could be accused of a high-profile attack that raised new questions about the direction of an unpopular war.
"I became very depressed and sad," said Kohistani, sitting on the floor few feet from a tiny wood-burning stove in Narges's home, alongside family photographs and a police training manual.
Fatima would often seek refuge in Kohistani's house when her mother's behavior became unbearable. "She did not hate us, but usually she was angry and would not talk to us," said Fatima, her eyes moist with tears.
Nevertheless, she missed her mother. The children were staying with a cousin.
"I ask the government to free my mother, otherwise our future will be destroyed," said Fatima.
Officials described it as another "insider shooting", in which Afghan forces turn on Westerners they are meant to be working with to stabilize the country. There have been over 52 such attacks so far this year.
The shooting at the police headquarters may have alarmed Afghanistan's Western allies. But some Afghans have grown numb to the violence.
Kohistani's 70-year-old father Omara Khan, who sports a white beard, sat twirling prayer beads beneath a photograph of Narges in a black veil beside one of her husband.
Asked what he thought of the attack, he laughed.
"This is common in Afghanistan," said Khan, who lived through decades of upheaval, including the 10-year Soviet occupation and a civil war that destroyed half of Kabul and killed some 50,000 civilians.
"People are killed every day."
(Editing by Ron Popeski)
Kabul Confirms Death Of 21 Afghan Illegal Immigrants
By RFE/RL's Radio Free Afghanistan December 25, 2012
KABUL -- Afghanistan's Foreign Ministry has confirmed that 21 Afghan nationals died when a ship carrying illegal immigrants capsized off the Greek coast earlier this month.
The boat which had set off from Turkey capsized in stormy weather on December 13.
Janan Musazai, a spokesman for the Foreign Ministry, said 21 bodies have been handed over to Afghan officials who had arrived in Greece to receive them.
They would be repatriated in coming days.
The only survivor from the incident, Murtaza Muhammadi, told RFE/RL's Radio Free Afghanistan that the vessel was a fishing boat meant to carry 10 to 15 people.
He said there were women and children among the victims, including at least two toddlers.
The nationalities of the remaining victims were not immediately known.
Encouraging signs toward peace in Afghanistan
The Washington Post By David Ignatius Opinion Dec 25, 2012
In this season of good will, there is a rare bit of good cheer about the prospects for peace with the Taliban in Afghanistan. The reason seems to be that some Taliban leaders are concluding that they couldn’t win the civil war that might follow U.S. withdrawal of combat troops.
The Taliban appear to recognize that their leverage, paradoxically, may decline when most U.S. forces depart at the end of 2014. The situation has changed since the 1990s, when the Taliban took power after a civil war: Pakistan is no longer a reliable political patron or financial backer, and it may not provide a haven.
“The Taliban have realized that they can’t achieve military victory,” argues a senior Pentagon official. “They can try to wait the U.S. out, but the price is that they won’t be able to play in the political transition.”
The latest sign of rapprochement came last week in Chantilly, outside Paris, where the French government brokered a gathering of Afghan political leaders that included two representatives of the Taliban, Shahabuddin Delawar and Naeem Wardak. The meeting, organized by a French think tank called the Foundation for Strategic Research, was closely followed by U.S. officials.
The Chantilly dialogue followed similar talks in Kyoto, Japan, on June 28 between Qari Din Mohammad, a member of the Taliban’s senior shura and former Afghan minister of planning, and Mohammad Masoom Stanekzai, head of the Afghan High Peace Council. That meeting was brokered by Doshisha University in Kyoto, again with U.S. encouragement.
The Taliban negotiators are part of what U.S. officials view as a “pragmatist” faction headed by Akhtar Mohammad Mansour, the chief of the Taliban senior shura and the deputy to the group’s leader, Mohammad Omar. Opposing the pragmatists is a hard-line faction headed by Abdul Qayyum Zakir, a former Guantanamo detainee who is head of the Taliban military commission.
The pragmatists’ case for negotiation has been strengthened by Pakistan’s recent cooperation with the United States and Afghanistan in planning for the future. Knowing that the U.S. combat role is ending, the Pakistanis have concluded that a civil war across their border (of the sort they helped sponsor in the 1990s) isn’t in their interest. So they’ve reached out not just to the Afghan government but also to the Northern Alliance, a bloc led by ethnic Tajiks, which is the leading adversary of the Taliban and its Pashtun followers.
In the talks in France last week, Ron Moreau and Sami Yousafzai reported in the Daily Beast, the Taliban hoped to reach out to prominent members of the Northern Alliance who would be attending.
As a next step toward reconciliation, the United States would like to see a resumption of what’s known as the “Doha process,” which stalled last March. This would involve an exchange of detainees and the opening of a Taliban office in Doha, Qatar, which would be a locus for broader political discussions. It’s hoped this process might lead to an eventual cease-fire in Afghanistan, though Taliban leaders are said to resist any formula that might look to their followers like surrender.
The United States insists on several “necessary outcomes” in a negotiated peace, including Taliban renunciation of al-Qaeda and acceptance of the Afghan constitution (and its promise of women’s rights). Omar has come close in his recent public statements. In an Oct. 24 message for the Muslim holiday known as Eid al-Adha, he said: “We are neither thinking of monopolizing power nor intend to spark off domestic war.” And in an Aug 16 message on the Eid al-Fitr holiday, he said the Taliban “will not allow anyone to use the soil of Afghanistan against anyone.” But the Taliban hasn’t yet offered the explicit rejection of al-Qaeda or the acceptance of the constitution that Washington seeks.
A hint of greater Taliban flexibility came in meetings last July between representatives of the British Royal United Services Institute and four senior members of the Taliban. In these discussions, the British reported in a recent paper, the Taliban leaders said they “deeply regret their past association with al-Qaeda” and that the group would be open to negotiating a cease-fire as part of a general settlement. What’s more, “the Taliban are willing to accept a long-term U.S. military presence and bases” because they fear meddling in the future by Afghanistan’s neighbors.
It’s not peace for the holidays. But the recent moves toward serious negotiation with the Taliban suggest that the Afghan situation, bleak as it may look to most Americans, offers some hope of progress in the new year.
davidignatius@washpost.com
India worried as Afghanistan, US look towards Pak for solution
Times of India By Indrani Bagchi Dec 25, 2012
NEW DELHI - Afghanistan is taking another shot at a reconciliation drive with the Taliban. Once again, Kabul wants to "collaborate" with Pakistan, which has given safe haven to top leaders of the Taliban. A new Afghan "roadmap" to 2015 envisages that the Taliban and Hizb-e-Islami would become political parties by then and would participate in government in Kabul. Pakistan is an integral part of this process.
While India has refrained from comment officially, there is much consternation within the government. With the US rushing for the exits in Afghanistan by 2014, India believes Washington will again be tempted to "incentivize" Pakistan with additional infusion of funds. Sources said India will continue to insist on maintaining the "red lines' agreed for the reconciliation, i.e. a renunciation of al-Qaida, acceptance of the Afghan constitution etc.
Fundamentally, India disagrees with the renewed breathless expectation that the Taliban could ever become a regular political party. "They will overwhelm the government with their extreme ideology," Indian officials said under condition of anonymity. "We have travelled down this road before, and it never leads to a happy place," they added gloomily.
The roadmap says the first phase would be to secure support for the peace process, "with a focus on securing the collaboration of Pakistan". Salahuddin Rabbani, chief of Afghanistan's High Peace Council (whose father and predecessor Burhanuddin Rabbani was assassinated by a Pakistan-supported Taliban suicide bomber), travelled to Pakistan in November to canvas support for his plan.
Even though Pakistan agreed to release several Afghan Taliban leaders, Afghan President Hamid Karzai told TOI that he had become more "conciliatory" with Pakistan, because "terrorism and extremism is now causing Pakistan more danger than Afghanistan or India".
The second phase of the roadmap, slated for early 2013, asks "Pakistan to facilitate direct contact" between Afghanistan and Taliban leaders; while the US, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Saudi Arabia work on terms for peace talks. Saudi Arabia will be the venue for the talks, it said. Pakistan will also be expected to give safe passage to Taliban leaders to travel to the talks.
Indian officials said the concern here was that Pakistan would likely demand a reduction of India's presence in Afghanistan in exchange.
The third phase, beginning in the second half of 2013, will focus on the start of the peace talks themselves. This could end with giving the Taliban space in the forthcoming government by allowing them to participate in the next elections.
Analysts say there are already some parties in Afghanistan's political structure with a Taliban background, implying others could come down the same route. The fact is, the holdout Taliban leaders are not in Afghan government because they have a very different future in mind.
By the first half of 2014, the High Peace Council expects to have a peace agreement signed. This will roughly coincide with the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan and the next elections.
If successful, it will allow the US to declare victory and get out of Afghanistan. For this to happen, the US will have to walk back from the confrontational relationship with Islamabad and be much more accommodating. Last week, the US released almost $700 million in military funds, with a promise of more.
Talking to TOI, Shuja Nawaz of the Atlantic Council said, "It is to be hoped that ties between Islamabad and Washington improve, because it is in the best interests of all concerned, specially Afghanistan."
Reuters quoted a Pakistani military official as saying, "Pakistan has the power to create the environment in which a grand reconciliation in Afghanistan can take place... We have to rise to the challenge. And we are doing it, at the highest level possible."
By 2015, the HPC roadmap expects the Taliban to be a part of the political structure, Pakistan and Afghanistan working together to battle Al Qaeda and bring back Taliban to Afghanistan. The international community is expected to continue to support them with the funding commitments.
India works to protect interests not inflame Pakistan: Afghan report
The Financial Express Dec 24 2012
Washington - India wants to deny Pakistan strategic depth in Afghanistan and ensure its interests are not attacked there but has little interest in inflaming Islamabad's sentiments by playing a large security role, a Congressional report has said, terming Kabul's handling of its two crucial neighbours a 'delicate balancing act'.
The report by the Congressional Research Service (CRS), an independent research wing of the US Congress, which prepares periodic reports to help Congressmen make informed decisions, also details how India's activities in the country are "inverse" of Pakistan and how New Delhi is wary of the reconciliation efforts with the Taliban.
"The interests and activities of India in Afghanistan are the inverse of those of Pakistan: India's goals are to deny Pakistan 'strategic depth' in Afghanistan, to deny Pakistan the ability to block India from trade and other connections to Central Asia and beyond, and to prevent militants in Afghanistan from attacking Indian targets in Afghanistan," said the latest Afghan report by CRS.
Also wary of the recent reconciliation efforts with the Taliban, which will give Pakistan more influence in Afghanistan, India in the recent past has stepped up contact with Northern Alliance, which it supported in the past, says the report.
"India saw the Afghan Taliban's hosting of Al Qaeda during 1996-2001 as a major threat to India itself because of Al Qaeda's association with radical Islamic organisations in Pakistan, such as LeT....," the report said.
Afghanistan has sought close ties to India but without alarming Pakistan: a delicate balancing act backed by the United States, it said.
The report also cites how on October 5, 2011, shortly after the assassination of former President Burhanuddin Rabbani and related Afghan recriminations against Pakistan, Hamid Karzai visited Delhi to sign the "strategic partnership" pact with India.
The pact, it says, affirmed Pakistan's worst fears because it gave India, for the first time, a formal role as one of the guarantors of Afghan stability, and provided for expanded India-Afghanistan political and cultural ties.
"Indian experts noted that no Indian troops or security forces would deploy to Afghanistan as a consequence of the pact, but it did lead to a late 2011 agreement for India to train some (Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) personnel in India.
"As an outgrowth of a four-day Karzai follow-up visit to India in November 2012, India reportedly agreed to train up to 600 ANSF per year at the Indian Army's jungle warfare school," it said. Still, India reportedly does not want to be saddled with the burden of helping secure Afghanistan as US-led forces depart.
Nor does it seek to inflame Pakistan's sentiments by playing a large security role in Afghanistan, CRS said.
"India has stressed its economic aid activities there, showcased by its hosting of a June 28, 2012, meeting in Delhi to discuss investment and economic development in Afghanistan. Some believe India has been concerned that any negotiated settlement of the Afghanistan conflict will give Pakistan preponderant influence in Afghanistan," CRS said.
"India, which supported the Northern Alliance against the Taliban in the mid-1990s, has been stepping up its contacts with those factions to discuss possible contingencies in the event of an Afghan settlement deal," it said.
Many Northern Alliance figures, it pointed out, have lived in India at one time or another, although Indian diplomats also stress they have long had close connections to Afghanistan's Pashtuns.
"Still, possibly at US urging, during the May 2011 Singh visit discussed above, India publicly expressed support for the reconciliation process. In addition, Tajikistan, which also supported the mostly Tajik Northern Alliance against the Taliban when it was in power, allows India to use one of its air bases," it said.
5 Afghan policemen die in traffic accident in Herat
HERAT, Afghanistan, Dec. 25 (Xinhua) -- Up to five Afghan policemen died in a traffic accident on Tuesday morning in the country's Herat province, some 640 km west of capital city of Kabul, police said.
"Five members of the Afghan National Police (ANP) were killed as their mobile collided with a truck running along a road connecting provincial capital Herat city to the border town of Islam Qala at about 8:30 a.m. (local time) Tuesday," provincial police chief Sayed Abdul Ghafar Sayedzada told Xinhua.
The victims were heading to an ANP checkpoint in Islam Qala where they were serving, he said.
Traffic police are carrying out an investigation into the mishap and searching for the fled truck driver, he added.
Reckless driving on congested roads and highways is the main cause of road accidents in Afghanistan.
6 militants killed in Afghanistan over past 24 hours
KABUL, Dec. 25 (Xinhua) -- Six militants have been killed and nine others detained in military operations over the last 24 hours, the Afghan Interior Ministry said on Tuesday.
"Afghan National Police (ANP) together with the army and the NATO-led coalition forces carried out six cleanup operations in Kunar, Nangarhar, Khost, Helmand and Nimroz provinces, killing six armed Taliban insurgents and detaining nine others over the past 24 hours," the ministry said in daily operational updates.
The ANP also seized weapon and more than 900 kg opium, the statement said.
Figures released by the Interior Ministry showed more than 80 insurgents had been killed and nearly 143 others detained since Dec. 1 during military operations across the country.
Afghanistan in 2013: A unified nation at stake?
This is the latest in a series of entries looking at what we can expect in 2013. Each weekday, a guest analyst will look at the key challenges facing a selected country – and what next year might hold in store.
CNN By Juan Cole, Special to CNN December 24th, 2012
Editor’s note: Juan Cole is the Richard P. Mitchell Professor of History and director of the Center for Middle Eastern and North African Studies at the University of Michigan. He maintains the popular blog, Informed Comment.
What does 2013 have in store for Afghanistan? As NATO and U.S. forces begin leaving in the thousands, and as their combat mission ends this coming year, can the green Afghanistan National Army take up the slack? With violence now higher than in 2009 when the Obama administration’s troop escalation was decided on, can any progress be made on political reconciliation? Will President Hamid Karzai resign and hold early elections for his successor, as he has suggested? Is there any hope for a more robust economy and a semblance of good governance, as financial scandals continue to rock Kabul? How will regional powers such as Iran, Saudi Arabia, India and Russia position themselves as Afghanistan moves out of the North Atlantic sphere of influence?
The Obama administration will certainly withdraw some of the 68,000 U.S. troops currently in Afghanistan throughout 2013, though the timetable and the number to be pulled out have still not been decided. Gen. John Allen, outgoing commander of U.S. forces and of the International Security Assistance Forces in country reportedly wants to delay any further withdrawals until fall of next year. (Some 34,000 troops came out in 2012). Allen’s hand was presumably weakened in November, however, when he was reportedly investigated over inappropriate communications with Tampa socialite Jill Kelley, as part of the fallout of an FBI investigation of CIA director, David Petraeus. He will be succeeded in 2013 by another Marine, Gen. Joseph “Fighting Joe” Dunford, who spent 22 months in the Iraq War.
By summer of 2013, it is anticipated that the U.S. combat role in Afghanistan will draw to a close. By the end of 2014, only a few thousand U.S. troops will be left, and they will mainly supply close air support to the Afghanistan army when it engages in combat. Whether the some 350,000-strong Afghanistan security forces are up to the challenge of fighting the Taliban and other insurgents is a matter of great controversy. American officers in Kabul insist that the Afghanistan National Army (ANA) now takes the lead in 80 percent of operations against the enemy, up from 50 percent just last summer. But a recent Pentagon review admitted that only one of 23 ANA brigades is capable of functioning on its own, without U.S. or ISAF help. In 2012, some 300 were dying every month in battles with the Taliban and other militant groups. The ANA has low rates of literacy (a third the rate of the general population), high rates of drug use, and high rates of desertion. It is also disproportionately drawn from the Tajik, Dar
i Persian-speaking minority. Only 2 percent of the troops hail from Kandahar and Helmand Provinces in the Pashtun south, the strongholds of the Taliban.
The map of Afghanistan’s provinces in the past few years has been overlain with the flags of the 49 European and other nations contributing to the ISAF mission, not counting the U.S. The 34,000 ISAF troops from NATO and other countries will begin winding down their presence in the coming year. NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen announced early in 2012, “We expect the last Afghan provinces to come under Afghan security force control by the second half of 2013,” adding, “At that point our role will begin to gradually change: from a fighting one to one more focused on formation and training.” Other ISAF contingents will just be gone. France, which at the height of its commitment had 4,000 troops there, is pulling out by the end of 2012. Australia’s Prime Minister Julia Gillard has announced that the 1,550 remaining Australian troops will be withdrawn in 2013. Roughly half of the 9,000 British troops will be brought home.
The drawing down of the international military presence raises questions about the long-term aid commitments of Europe in particular. European nations have pledged billions to the funding over the next few years of the Afghanistan security forces, which are far too large to be paid for by Afghanistan’s own budget. But many observers wonder whether a Europe beset by economic crises will really follow through on its pledges. Civilian aid could also decline. The Asian Development Bank is projecting a slight fall in the rate of economic growth in Afghanistan in 2013, in part because of an expectation that foreign aid will decline.
There are also serious questions about how much of the aid is spent on the purposes for which it is appropriated. Afghanistan is possibly the most corrupt nation on earth, and persistent reports suggest that millions of aid dollars are smuggled back out of the country for the purposes of private graft every year. The banking system established by the outside powers after the fall of the Taliban is unstable and subject to runs, because of embezzlement on a grand scale. Whether an economy can truly grow in the shadow of a collapsing and corrupt banking system is a question that must be asked of Afghanistan, and the bubble could burst at any moment.
Since the fall of the Taliban late in 2001, Afghanistan has only known one president, the mercurial Hamid Karzai. That could change in 2013. Without the big foreign troop presence, holding presidential elections on schedule in fall 2014 may be a security challenge. During the last campaign, turnout was woefully light in some Pashtun-majority provinces because the Taliban and other insurgents had threatened voters with reprisals. There were also charges of ballot-tampering on behalf of election officials biased toward Karzai, placing a taint on his third and final term, which is now drawing to a close. Karzai has suggested that it might be desirable to move the presidential election up to 2013, so that the country can profit from the greater security afforded by ISAF troops. This plan suggests a certain lack of faith in Afghan security forces on the part of the president.
Ironically, the draw-down of Western forces may make it easier for warring Afghan factions to begin serious negotiations with one another over the shape of the future. The United States has reportedly given up on attempting to play a role in those talks, and is bequeathing the task of achieving a negotiated settlement to the Afghans themselves and to Pakistan. The Taliban and other insurgent groups have repeatedly said that the end of the foreign troop presence is a precondition for any serious talks. Perhaps light at the end of that tunnel will be enough to at least begin behind-the-scenes discussions. It is also possible, however, that the radicals will attempt to improve their eventual bargaining position by taking more territory from Karzai and his successor.
Another troubling possibility is that the old Mujahidin warlords may become impatient if the ANA is seen to falter in its fight against the Taliban, and may reactivate regional and tribal militias of the sort that made the country a political and security patchwork in the early 1990s Ismail Khan, the former warlord of Herat, has pledged to bring back the Mujahidin after ISAF withdraws.
Finally, Afghanistan in the aftermath of the departure of the Europeans and Americans will be an arena for regional jockeying. The Tajiks of the north have a strong relationship with India and many resent Pakistan as a patron of the Taliban. Indian aid and diplomatic clout may grow in Kabul. The Pashtuns of the south and east are often friendly to Pakistan, which has a history of whipping up fundamentalist Islam as a vehicle for Islamabad’s influence. The eastern Herat region is an appendage of Iran, and Iran may increase its influence with the Hazara Shiites in the center of the country. Russia, which is attempting to reassert itself in Central Asia, has a profound fear of the debilitating effects of smuggled Afghan heroin on Russian youth. While Moscow has no intention of becoming embroiled in a military adventure, it is likely to expand its covert presence and to develop regional and local allies in a bid to stop the drug trade.
The year 2013 will be a turning point for Afghanistan, as Western military power wanes, and as regional powers assert their influence. The transition to a new presidential leadership could well occur a year early, with all the uncertainties it will bring. It is questionable whether the country can afford its bloated security apparatus, and further uncertain whether that apparatus can contain Muslim fundamentalist groups who are expanding their influence in the Pashtun areas.
Corruption and bank scandals will discourage international investment and perhaps even aid donors. The very existence of a unified Afghan state could be at stake if the country’s elite and foreign patrons make the wrong policy choices.
Troops in Afghanistan Find Cheer With a Yule Logon
New York Times By ROD NORDLAND December 24, 2012
KABUL, Afghanistan - Marine Cpl. Brett Bass will do what a lot of American service members hope to this Christmas Day: “I’m going to give myself a gift of not turning on my alarm clock,” he said.
Maj. Bryan Burke will be trying to coax his 4-year-old daughter to say hello in a video chat. Specialist Marshall Little will have worked the graveyard shift as an intelligence analyst, so he’ll still be sleeping when an extravagant Christmas lunch is served at noon. By the time he wakes up, though, it will be morning in America, and he will go online with his wife to open some of the half-dozen presents waiting in his tent.
After more than 11 years of war in Afghanistan, there is still plenty of work to do. But this is the time of year when the tempo of the war slows dramatically. Insurgent attacks drop off as quickly as the snow piles up on mountainsides.
Here at one of Kabul’s main military bases, Camp KAIA, where the International Security Assistance Force Joint Command runs the war’s operational headquarters on the edge of Kabul International Airport, officials have done their best to put a festive face on a dusty and sometimes dreary landscape.
While Afghanistan may sometimes seem like America’s forgotten war — it was scarcely mentioned in the presidential campaigns — soldiers here say they do not feel forsaken. Technology helps, and many here said they would try to have video chats during present-opening time, despite time differences ranging from 9 1/2 to 14 1/2 hours. The military has also tried to create a festive atmosphere offline. Live Christmas trees have been flown in from New York, with a two-story-high one near the passenger terminal and eight-footers in the dining facilities. There is a big inflatable Santa on a roof, and next to the chapel is an inflatable helicopter driven by Santa, with a snowman along for the ride.
For weeks, the base has been deluged with packages, not just from family and friends but also from schools and churches back in the States. Capt. Dan Einert’s church, Beautiful Savior Lutheran in Topeka, Kan., shipped eight boxes full of 20 presents for everyone in his unit; the soldiers opened them at an office party on Monday night.
“It was a very touching gesture,” Captain Einert said.
Until a week ago, Specialist Monica Martin, an Army mail clerk from Bell, Ga., and the rest of her unit had been handling two tractor-trailer loads of mail a day — more than 5,000 packages daily, not counting cards and letters, on a base with about 5,000 soldiers.
“I’m going to be sleeping all day on Christmas,” she said.
The American dining hall on the base will have a huge selection on Christmas, perhaps with a bit more emphasis on the desserts than usual, and heavy on the pie. The hall will be dressed up, too: two of the Sri Lankan cooks for the contracting company that runs the place carved and painted plastic-foam sleighs, religious figures and reindeer on Christmas Eve. Crepe paper decorations in red and green had been strung (interspersed with “Stop Suicide” stickers, with a base phone number).
When it’s mealtime, 32 generals and other top officers will dish food out to the rank and file. It is an old American military tradition, but not one that allied brass share — or, in some cases, understand.
Still, nine Afghan generals will join the serving line this year, said Maj. Gen. Lawrence D. Nicholson, the deputy chief of staff and one of the servers. They were good sports about it, he said. “A couple of them were, ‘Great, I’m coming,’ ” General Nicholson said. “A couple were: ‘O.K., explain this to me again? We will do what?’ ”
The general knows that Christmases on deployment take a toll; he’s had four, and some here have had more. “This is one of the toughest times of the year,” he said. But he noted at least one upside: “You don’t have to worry about shopping malls.”
Deployed soldiers at bases like this one do have an on-base bazaar, where some can buy presents like Afghan souvenirs and lapis lazuli, rugs and carvings, and pay only United States domestic postal rates to ship them to people at home. Still, most do their shopping entirely online, where, many noted with satisfaction, the wrapping can be done for you.
“When you’re deployed, you make a second family,” said Major Burke, an Air Force officer spending his fourth Christmas away. “You do a lot of things together, and you make friends quickly. Misery loves company, I guess, and in this case you have plenty of company.”
The major said he would try later to talk to his daughters, Reagan, 4, and Ellie, 8 months, over Skype. Reagan has taken to refusing to speak on the phone, he said, but Skype entices her. “The younger one just thinks I’m on television,” he said.
Col. John Wilbourne, an Air Force trainer, is spending his first Christmas away from his family of four, and said he had come to Afghanistan somewhat “disenchanted” by the public mood of uninterest back home. “But I’ve seen the tremendous strides we have taken, and I know it sounds like a public service announcement, but I mean that,” he said. “I believe we’re going to win this.”
On Christmas Eve, he used his iPad to record part of a candlelight service, which included a soldiers’ ensemble of two saxophones, violin, drums and keyboard, as well as a choir to lead the caroling. His wife and mother had organized their relatives and friends to each send him a Christmas ornament, and the ornaments arrived day after day, to add to the tree on his desk.
“It’s been sad this Christmas, but kind of exciting, too,” Colonel Wilbourne said. “My children, they’re 13 and 12. They’re troupers. They miss me a lot, but it makes you feel better when we’re actually doing some good — helps them cope a little better.”
At the candlelight service, the senior chaplain, Col. Rod Lindsay, gave an impassioned sermon, talking about how soldiers are driven to do their work “because someone lit up their life.”
He talked about the soldier’s life as being constantly on guard against darkness, and noted that war zones had no monopoly on it. “There’s a place in Connecticut where the light is very dim,” Colonel Lindsay said. “We don’t have to go all the way to Afghanistan to experience a deep, gloomy, dreary darkness.”
For now, though, they are experiencing it here, and for the most part making the best of it.
Lawmakers React to Paris Meeting
TOLOnews.com By Sharif Amiry Monday, 24 December 2012
Afghan lawmakers criticized the absence of government response at the Paris meeting when Taliban representatives demanded amendments to the Constitution.
The lawmakers emphasized that the Afghan delegation should have strongly rejected the Taliban's demand.
"We should not provide too many chances to the Taliban. The High Peace Council representatives should have reacted strongly to Taliban demands," Kabul MP Shukria Barekzai said.
Lawmakers also demanded strengthening the role of the legislature in the peace process.
"Parliament's role in the important issues of the country should be strengthened. We should not surrender the fate of the country in the hands of deal-makers," MP Latif Pedram said.
The Paris meeting was attended by government representatives and members of major opposition parties, as well as Taliban and Hizb-e-Islami representatives.
The Taliban asked for immediate withdrawal of foreign forces, amendments to the Constitution, general amnesty and enforcement of human rights.
Senate Summons Head of Environmental Protection Agency
TOLOnews.com By Saleha Sadaat Monday, 24 December 2012
Senate summoned the head of the National Environmental Protection Agency (NEPA) Sunday about lingering concerns over air pollution in the capital, which is causing respiratory problems and, in some cases, death.
Senators criticised NEPA and said that if pollution across the country is not reduced, Afghanistan will confront a man-made disaster. Senators believe most of the steps taken by NEPA are symbolic and relentlessly grilled the NEPA chief, Mustafa Zahir.
“Mr. Zahir, as you see, people with different illnesses go to hospitals as a result of air pollution, and you see that many people are hospitalized. What programmes have you planned to reduce pollution?” said senator Bashar Samim.
“In most of the provinces, people are not even familiar with the name of the National Environmental Protection Agency. This shows that your activities for reducing pollution are trivial. You should plan large-scale programmes in this regard,” said senator Mawlawi Ghulam Muhiuddin Munsef.
Mustafa Zahir, grandson of Afghanistan's late King Zahir Shah, was clearly incensed at the grilling and referred to his background in his defending remarks.
“Dear senators, you know that I am grandson of the person who founded the parliament [in Afghanistan]. I am a prince, not a bum -- history has proved this matter. My activities have mostly been practical, not just theoretical. I have myself planted 4,000 saplings,” said Mustafa Zahir.
Reacting to Zahir’s remarks, Senate Chairman Fazl Hadi Muslimyar said: “Well, Mister Prince, it is correct that you are the grandson of the Father of the Nation. We know enough of the history of your grandfather. But we called you here today to learn what, as the head of the National Environmental Protection Agency, your responses are regarding pollution reduction.”
Although the government has frequently talked of serious efforts to reduce air pollution in the capital, experts believe effective programmes for saving Kabul from this lethal threat have not yet materialized.
www.afghanistannewscenter.com
By Michael Georgy and Mirwais Harooni | Reuters
KABUL (Reuters) - The Afghan policewoman suspected of killing a U.S. contractor at police headquarters in Kabul suffered from mental illness and was driven to suicidal despair by poverty, her children told Reuters on Wednesday.
The woman was identified by authorities as Narges Rezaeimomenabad, a 40-year-old grandmother and mother of three who moved here from Iran 10 years ago and married an Afghan man.
On Monday morning, she loaded a pistol in a bathroom at the police compound, hid it in her long scarf and shot an American police trainer, apparently becoming the first Afghan woman to carry out such an attack.
Narges also tried to shoot police officials after killing the American. Luckily for them, her pistol jammed. Her husband is also under investigation.
Her son Sayed, 16, and daughter Fatima, 13, described how they tried to call their parents 100 times after news broke of the shooting, then waited in vain for them to come home.
They recalled Narges's severe mood swings, and how at times she beat them and even pulled out a knife. But the children said she was consistent in bemoaning poverty.
"She was usually complaining about poverty. She was complaining to my father about our conditions. She was saying that my father was poor," Sayid said in an interview in their damp, cold two-room cement house.
On the floor beside him were his mother's prescriptions and a thick plastic bag filled with pills she tried to swallow to end the misery about a month ago. On another occasion, she cut her wrist with a razor, Sayed said.
"My father was usually calm and sometimes would say that she was guilty too because it wasn't a forced marriage. They fell in love and got married."
There was no sign in their neighborhood of the billions of dollars of Western aid that have poured into Afghanistan since the ouster of the Taliban in 2001, or of government investment.
RAW SEWAGE, STAGNANT WATER, DIRT ROADS
The lane outside their home stank of raw sewage.
Dirty, stagnant water filled holes in dirt roads nearby, where children in tattered clothes played and butchers stood by cow's hooves in shops choked by dust.
Afghanistan is one of the world's poorest nations, with a third of its 30 million residents living under the poverty line.
The sole distractions from the daily grind appeared to be a deck of playing cards and a compact disc with songs from Iranian pop singers, scattered on the floor of a room where Narges would lock herself in and weep, or sit in silence.
At times, Narges would try to focus on building her children's confidence, telling them to be guided by the Muslim holy book, the Koran, to tackle life's problems.
Sayed and Fatima said she never spoke badly of the U.S. presence in Afghanistan or of President Hamid Karzai's government.
Neighbor Mohammad Ismail Kohistani was dumbfounded to hear on the radio that Afghan officials were combing Narges' phone records to try to determine whether al Qaeda or the Taliban could have brainwashed her into carrying out a mission.
But he was acutely aware of her mental problems and often heard her scream at her husband, whose low-level job in the crime investigation unit of the police brought home little cash.
Kohistani, who operates a small sewing shop with battered machines, never imagined his neighbor could be accused of a high-profile attack that raised new questions about the direction of an unpopular war.
"I became very depressed and sad," said Kohistani, sitting on the floor few feet from a tiny wood-burning stove in Narges's home, alongside family photographs and a police training manual.
Fatima would often seek refuge in Kohistani's house when her mother's behavior became unbearable. "She did not hate us, but usually she was angry and would not talk to us," said Fatima, her eyes moist with tears.
Nevertheless, she missed her mother. The children were staying with a cousin.
"I ask the government to free my mother, otherwise our future will be destroyed," said Fatima.
Officials described it as another "insider shooting", in which Afghan forces turn on Westerners they are meant to be working with to stabilize the country. There have been over 52 such attacks so far this year.
The shooting at the police headquarters may have alarmed Afghanistan's Western allies. But some Afghans have grown numb to the violence.
Kohistani's 70-year-old father Omara Khan, who sports a white beard, sat twirling prayer beads beneath a photograph of Narges in a black veil beside one of her husband.
Asked what he thought of the attack, he laughed.
"This is common in Afghanistan," said Khan, who lived through decades of upheaval, including the 10-year Soviet occupation and a civil war that destroyed half of Kabul and killed some 50,000 civilians.
"People are killed every day."
(Editing by Ron Popeski)
Kabul Confirms Death Of 21 Afghan Illegal Immigrants
By RFE/RL's Radio Free Afghanistan December 25, 2012
KABUL -- Afghanistan's Foreign Ministry has confirmed that 21 Afghan nationals died when a ship carrying illegal immigrants capsized off the Greek coast earlier this month.
The boat which had set off from Turkey capsized in stormy weather on December 13.
Janan Musazai, a spokesman for the Foreign Ministry, said 21 bodies have been handed over to Afghan officials who had arrived in Greece to receive them.
They would be repatriated in coming days.
The only survivor from the incident, Murtaza Muhammadi, told RFE/RL's Radio Free Afghanistan that the vessel was a fishing boat meant to carry 10 to 15 people.
He said there were women and children among the victims, including at least two toddlers.
The nationalities of the remaining victims were not immediately known.
Encouraging signs toward peace in Afghanistan
The Washington Post By David Ignatius Opinion Dec 25, 2012
In this season of good will, there is a rare bit of good cheer about the prospects for peace with the Taliban in Afghanistan. The reason seems to be that some Taliban leaders are concluding that they couldn’t win the civil war that might follow U.S. withdrawal of combat troops.
The Taliban appear to recognize that their leverage, paradoxically, may decline when most U.S. forces depart at the end of 2014. The situation has changed since the 1990s, when the Taliban took power after a civil war: Pakistan is no longer a reliable political patron or financial backer, and it may not provide a haven.
“The Taliban have realized that they can’t achieve military victory,” argues a senior Pentagon official. “They can try to wait the U.S. out, but the price is that they won’t be able to play in the political transition.”
The latest sign of rapprochement came last week in Chantilly, outside Paris, where the French government brokered a gathering of Afghan political leaders that included two representatives of the Taliban, Shahabuddin Delawar and Naeem Wardak. The meeting, organized by a French think tank called the Foundation for Strategic Research, was closely followed by U.S. officials.
The Chantilly dialogue followed similar talks in Kyoto, Japan, on June 28 between Qari Din Mohammad, a member of the Taliban’s senior shura and former Afghan minister of planning, and Mohammad Masoom Stanekzai, head of the Afghan High Peace Council. That meeting was brokered by Doshisha University in Kyoto, again with U.S. encouragement.
The Taliban negotiators are part of what U.S. officials view as a “pragmatist” faction headed by Akhtar Mohammad Mansour, the chief of the Taliban senior shura and the deputy to the group’s leader, Mohammad Omar. Opposing the pragmatists is a hard-line faction headed by Abdul Qayyum Zakir, a former Guantanamo detainee who is head of the Taliban military commission.
The pragmatists’ case for negotiation has been strengthened by Pakistan’s recent cooperation with the United States and Afghanistan in planning for the future. Knowing that the U.S. combat role is ending, the Pakistanis have concluded that a civil war across their border (of the sort they helped sponsor in the 1990s) isn’t in their interest. So they’ve reached out not just to the Afghan government but also to the Northern Alliance, a bloc led by ethnic Tajiks, which is the leading adversary of the Taliban and its Pashtun followers.
In the talks in France last week, Ron Moreau and Sami Yousafzai reported in the Daily Beast, the Taliban hoped to reach out to prominent members of the Northern Alliance who would be attending.
As a next step toward reconciliation, the United States would like to see a resumption of what’s known as the “Doha process,” which stalled last March. This would involve an exchange of detainees and the opening of a Taliban office in Doha, Qatar, which would be a locus for broader political discussions. It’s hoped this process might lead to an eventual cease-fire in Afghanistan, though Taliban leaders are said to resist any formula that might look to their followers like surrender.
The United States insists on several “necessary outcomes” in a negotiated peace, including Taliban renunciation of al-Qaeda and acceptance of the Afghan constitution (and its promise of women’s rights). Omar has come close in his recent public statements. In an Oct. 24 message for the Muslim holiday known as Eid al-Adha, he said: “We are neither thinking of monopolizing power nor intend to spark off domestic war.” And in an Aug 16 message on the Eid al-Fitr holiday, he said the Taliban “will not allow anyone to use the soil of Afghanistan against anyone.” But the Taliban hasn’t yet offered the explicit rejection of al-Qaeda or the acceptance of the constitution that Washington seeks.
A hint of greater Taliban flexibility came in meetings last July between representatives of the British Royal United Services Institute and four senior members of the Taliban. In these discussions, the British reported in a recent paper, the Taliban leaders said they “deeply regret their past association with al-Qaeda” and that the group would be open to negotiating a cease-fire as part of a general settlement. What’s more, “the Taliban are willing to accept a long-term U.S. military presence and bases” because they fear meddling in the future by Afghanistan’s neighbors.
It’s not peace for the holidays. But the recent moves toward serious negotiation with the Taliban suggest that the Afghan situation, bleak as it may look to most Americans, offers some hope of progress in the new year.
davidignatius@washpost.com
India worried as Afghanistan, US look towards Pak for solution
Times of India By Indrani Bagchi Dec 25, 2012
NEW DELHI - Afghanistan is taking another shot at a reconciliation drive with the Taliban. Once again, Kabul wants to "collaborate" with Pakistan, which has given safe haven to top leaders of the Taliban. A new Afghan "roadmap" to 2015 envisages that the Taliban and Hizb-e-Islami would become political parties by then and would participate in government in Kabul. Pakistan is an integral part of this process.
While India has refrained from comment officially, there is much consternation within the government. With the US rushing for the exits in Afghanistan by 2014, India believes Washington will again be tempted to "incentivize" Pakistan with additional infusion of funds. Sources said India will continue to insist on maintaining the "red lines' agreed for the reconciliation, i.e. a renunciation of al-Qaida, acceptance of the Afghan constitution etc.
Fundamentally, India disagrees with the renewed breathless expectation that the Taliban could ever become a regular political party. "They will overwhelm the government with their extreme ideology," Indian officials said under condition of anonymity. "We have travelled down this road before, and it never leads to a happy place," they added gloomily.
The roadmap says the first phase would be to secure support for the peace process, "with a focus on securing the collaboration of Pakistan". Salahuddin Rabbani, chief of Afghanistan's High Peace Council (whose father and predecessor Burhanuddin Rabbani was assassinated by a Pakistan-supported Taliban suicide bomber), travelled to Pakistan in November to canvas support for his plan.
Even though Pakistan agreed to release several Afghan Taliban leaders, Afghan President Hamid Karzai told TOI that he had become more "conciliatory" with Pakistan, because "terrorism and extremism is now causing Pakistan more danger than Afghanistan or India".
The second phase of the roadmap, slated for early 2013, asks "Pakistan to facilitate direct contact" between Afghanistan and Taliban leaders; while the US, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Saudi Arabia work on terms for peace talks. Saudi Arabia will be the venue for the talks, it said. Pakistan will also be expected to give safe passage to Taliban leaders to travel to the talks.
Indian officials said the concern here was that Pakistan would likely demand a reduction of India's presence in Afghanistan in exchange.
The third phase, beginning in the second half of 2013, will focus on the start of the peace talks themselves. This could end with giving the Taliban space in the forthcoming government by allowing them to participate in the next elections.
Analysts say there are already some parties in Afghanistan's political structure with a Taliban background, implying others could come down the same route. The fact is, the holdout Taliban leaders are not in Afghan government because they have a very different future in mind.
By the first half of 2014, the High Peace Council expects to have a peace agreement signed. This will roughly coincide with the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan and the next elections.
If successful, it will allow the US to declare victory and get out of Afghanistan. For this to happen, the US will have to walk back from the confrontational relationship with Islamabad and be much more accommodating. Last week, the US released almost $700 million in military funds, with a promise of more.
Talking to TOI, Shuja Nawaz of the Atlantic Council said, "It is to be hoped that ties between Islamabad and Washington improve, because it is in the best interests of all concerned, specially Afghanistan."
Reuters quoted a Pakistani military official as saying, "Pakistan has the power to create the environment in which a grand reconciliation in Afghanistan can take place... We have to rise to the challenge. And we are doing it, at the highest level possible."
By 2015, the HPC roadmap expects the Taliban to be a part of the political structure, Pakistan and Afghanistan working together to battle Al Qaeda and bring back Taliban to Afghanistan. The international community is expected to continue to support them with the funding commitments.
India works to protect interests not inflame Pakistan: Afghan report
The Financial Express Dec 24 2012
Washington - India wants to deny Pakistan strategic depth in Afghanistan and ensure its interests are not attacked there but has little interest in inflaming Islamabad's sentiments by playing a large security role, a Congressional report has said, terming Kabul's handling of its two crucial neighbours a 'delicate balancing act'.
The report by the Congressional Research Service (CRS), an independent research wing of the US Congress, which prepares periodic reports to help Congressmen make informed decisions, also details how India's activities in the country are "inverse" of Pakistan and how New Delhi is wary of the reconciliation efforts with the Taliban.
"The interests and activities of India in Afghanistan are the inverse of those of Pakistan: India's goals are to deny Pakistan 'strategic depth' in Afghanistan, to deny Pakistan the ability to block India from trade and other connections to Central Asia and beyond, and to prevent militants in Afghanistan from attacking Indian targets in Afghanistan," said the latest Afghan report by CRS.
Also wary of the recent reconciliation efforts with the Taliban, which will give Pakistan more influence in Afghanistan, India in the recent past has stepped up contact with Northern Alliance, which it supported in the past, says the report.
"India saw the Afghan Taliban's hosting of Al Qaeda during 1996-2001 as a major threat to India itself because of Al Qaeda's association with radical Islamic organisations in Pakistan, such as LeT....," the report said.
Afghanistan has sought close ties to India but without alarming Pakistan: a delicate balancing act backed by the United States, it said.
The report also cites how on October 5, 2011, shortly after the assassination of former President Burhanuddin Rabbani and related Afghan recriminations against Pakistan, Hamid Karzai visited Delhi to sign the "strategic partnership" pact with India.
The pact, it says, affirmed Pakistan's worst fears because it gave India, for the first time, a formal role as one of the guarantors of Afghan stability, and provided for expanded India-Afghanistan political and cultural ties.
"Indian experts noted that no Indian troops or security forces would deploy to Afghanistan as a consequence of the pact, but it did lead to a late 2011 agreement for India to train some (Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) personnel in India.
"As an outgrowth of a four-day Karzai follow-up visit to India in November 2012, India reportedly agreed to train up to 600 ANSF per year at the Indian Army's jungle warfare school," it said. Still, India reportedly does not want to be saddled with the burden of helping secure Afghanistan as US-led forces depart.
Nor does it seek to inflame Pakistan's sentiments by playing a large security role in Afghanistan, CRS said.
"India has stressed its economic aid activities there, showcased by its hosting of a June 28, 2012, meeting in Delhi to discuss investment and economic development in Afghanistan. Some believe India has been concerned that any negotiated settlement of the Afghanistan conflict will give Pakistan preponderant influence in Afghanistan," CRS said.
"India, which supported the Northern Alliance against the Taliban in the mid-1990s, has been stepping up its contacts with those factions to discuss possible contingencies in the event of an Afghan settlement deal," it said.
Many Northern Alliance figures, it pointed out, have lived in India at one time or another, although Indian diplomats also stress they have long had close connections to Afghanistan's Pashtuns.
"Still, possibly at US urging, during the May 2011 Singh visit discussed above, India publicly expressed support for the reconciliation process. In addition, Tajikistan, which also supported the mostly Tajik Northern Alliance against the Taliban when it was in power, allows India to use one of its air bases," it said.
5 Afghan policemen die in traffic accident in Herat
HERAT, Afghanistan, Dec. 25 (Xinhua) -- Up to five Afghan policemen died in a traffic accident on Tuesday morning in the country's Herat province, some 640 km west of capital city of Kabul, police said.
"Five members of the Afghan National Police (ANP) were killed as their mobile collided with a truck running along a road connecting provincial capital Herat city to the border town of Islam Qala at about 8:30 a.m. (local time) Tuesday," provincial police chief Sayed Abdul Ghafar Sayedzada told Xinhua.
The victims were heading to an ANP checkpoint in Islam Qala where they were serving, he said.
Traffic police are carrying out an investigation into the mishap and searching for the fled truck driver, he added.
Reckless driving on congested roads and highways is the main cause of road accidents in Afghanistan.
6 militants killed in Afghanistan over past 24 hours
KABUL, Dec. 25 (Xinhua) -- Six militants have been killed and nine others detained in military operations over the last 24 hours, the Afghan Interior Ministry said on Tuesday.
"Afghan National Police (ANP) together with the army and the NATO-led coalition forces carried out six cleanup operations in Kunar, Nangarhar, Khost, Helmand and Nimroz provinces, killing six armed Taliban insurgents and detaining nine others over the past 24 hours," the ministry said in daily operational updates.
The ANP also seized weapon and more than 900 kg opium, the statement said.
Figures released by the Interior Ministry showed more than 80 insurgents had been killed and nearly 143 others detained since Dec. 1 during military operations across the country.
Afghanistan in 2013: A unified nation at stake?
This is the latest in a series of entries looking at what we can expect in 2013. Each weekday, a guest analyst will look at the key challenges facing a selected country – and what next year might hold in store.
CNN By Juan Cole, Special to CNN December 24th, 2012
Editor’s note: Juan Cole is the Richard P. Mitchell Professor of History and director of the Center for Middle Eastern and North African Studies at the University of Michigan. He maintains the popular blog, Informed Comment.
What does 2013 have in store for Afghanistan? As NATO and U.S. forces begin leaving in the thousands, and as their combat mission ends this coming year, can the green Afghanistan National Army take up the slack? With violence now higher than in 2009 when the Obama administration’s troop escalation was decided on, can any progress be made on political reconciliation? Will President Hamid Karzai resign and hold early elections for his successor, as he has suggested? Is there any hope for a more robust economy and a semblance of good governance, as financial scandals continue to rock Kabul? How will regional powers such as Iran, Saudi Arabia, India and Russia position themselves as Afghanistan moves out of the North Atlantic sphere of influence?
The Obama administration will certainly withdraw some of the 68,000 U.S. troops currently in Afghanistan throughout 2013, though the timetable and the number to be pulled out have still not been decided. Gen. John Allen, outgoing commander of U.S. forces and of the International Security Assistance Forces in country reportedly wants to delay any further withdrawals until fall of next year. (Some 34,000 troops came out in 2012). Allen’s hand was presumably weakened in November, however, when he was reportedly investigated over inappropriate communications with Tampa socialite Jill Kelley, as part of the fallout of an FBI investigation of CIA director, David Petraeus. He will be succeeded in 2013 by another Marine, Gen. Joseph “Fighting Joe” Dunford, who spent 22 months in the Iraq War.
By summer of 2013, it is anticipated that the U.S. combat role in Afghanistan will draw to a close. By the end of 2014, only a few thousand U.S. troops will be left, and they will mainly supply close air support to the Afghanistan army when it engages in combat. Whether the some 350,000-strong Afghanistan security forces are up to the challenge of fighting the Taliban and other insurgents is a matter of great controversy. American officers in Kabul insist that the Afghanistan National Army (ANA) now takes the lead in 80 percent of operations against the enemy, up from 50 percent just last summer. But a recent Pentagon review admitted that only one of 23 ANA brigades is capable of functioning on its own, without U.S. or ISAF help. In 2012, some 300 were dying every month in battles with the Taliban and other militant groups. The ANA has low rates of literacy (a third the rate of the general population), high rates of drug use, and high rates of desertion. It is also disproportionately drawn from the Tajik, Dar
i Persian-speaking minority. Only 2 percent of the troops hail from Kandahar and Helmand Provinces in the Pashtun south, the strongholds of the Taliban.
The map of Afghanistan’s provinces in the past few years has been overlain with the flags of the 49 European and other nations contributing to the ISAF mission, not counting the U.S. The 34,000 ISAF troops from NATO and other countries will begin winding down their presence in the coming year. NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen announced early in 2012, “We expect the last Afghan provinces to come under Afghan security force control by the second half of 2013,” adding, “At that point our role will begin to gradually change: from a fighting one to one more focused on formation and training.” Other ISAF contingents will just be gone. France, which at the height of its commitment had 4,000 troops there, is pulling out by the end of 2012. Australia’s Prime Minister Julia Gillard has announced that the 1,550 remaining Australian troops will be withdrawn in 2013. Roughly half of the 9,000 British troops will be brought home.
The drawing down of the international military presence raises questions about the long-term aid commitments of Europe in particular. European nations have pledged billions to the funding over the next few years of the Afghanistan security forces, which are far too large to be paid for by Afghanistan’s own budget. But many observers wonder whether a Europe beset by economic crises will really follow through on its pledges. Civilian aid could also decline. The Asian Development Bank is projecting a slight fall in the rate of economic growth in Afghanistan in 2013, in part because of an expectation that foreign aid will decline.
There are also serious questions about how much of the aid is spent on the purposes for which it is appropriated. Afghanistan is possibly the most corrupt nation on earth, and persistent reports suggest that millions of aid dollars are smuggled back out of the country for the purposes of private graft every year. The banking system established by the outside powers after the fall of the Taliban is unstable and subject to runs, because of embezzlement on a grand scale. Whether an economy can truly grow in the shadow of a collapsing and corrupt banking system is a question that must be asked of Afghanistan, and the bubble could burst at any moment.
Since the fall of the Taliban late in 2001, Afghanistan has only known one president, the mercurial Hamid Karzai. That could change in 2013. Without the big foreign troop presence, holding presidential elections on schedule in fall 2014 may be a security challenge. During the last campaign, turnout was woefully light in some Pashtun-majority provinces because the Taliban and other insurgents had threatened voters with reprisals. There were also charges of ballot-tampering on behalf of election officials biased toward Karzai, placing a taint on his third and final term, which is now drawing to a close. Karzai has suggested that it might be desirable to move the presidential election up to 2013, so that the country can profit from the greater security afforded by ISAF troops. This plan suggests a certain lack of faith in Afghan security forces on the part of the president.
Ironically, the draw-down of Western forces may make it easier for warring Afghan factions to begin serious negotiations with one another over the shape of the future. The United States has reportedly given up on attempting to play a role in those talks, and is bequeathing the task of achieving a negotiated settlement to the Afghans themselves and to Pakistan. The Taliban and other insurgent groups have repeatedly said that the end of the foreign troop presence is a precondition for any serious talks. Perhaps light at the end of that tunnel will be enough to at least begin behind-the-scenes discussions. It is also possible, however, that the radicals will attempt to improve their eventual bargaining position by taking more territory from Karzai and his successor.
Another troubling possibility is that the old Mujahidin warlords may become impatient if the ANA is seen to falter in its fight against the Taliban, and may reactivate regional and tribal militias of the sort that made the country a political and security patchwork in the early 1990s Ismail Khan, the former warlord of Herat, has pledged to bring back the Mujahidin after ISAF withdraws.
Finally, Afghanistan in the aftermath of the departure of the Europeans and Americans will be an arena for regional jockeying. The Tajiks of the north have a strong relationship with India and many resent Pakistan as a patron of the Taliban. Indian aid and diplomatic clout may grow in Kabul. The Pashtuns of the south and east are often friendly to Pakistan, which has a history of whipping up fundamentalist Islam as a vehicle for Islamabad’s influence. The eastern Herat region is an appendage of Iran, and Iran may increase its influence with the Hazara Shiites in the center of the country. Russia, which is attempting to reassert itself in Central Asia, has a profound fear of the debilitating effects of smuggled Afghan heroin on Russian youth. While Moscow has no intention of becoming embroiled in a military adventure, it is likely to expand its covert presence and to develop regional and local allies in a bid to stop the drug trade.
The year 2013 will be a turning point for Afghanistan, as Western military power wanes, and as regional powers assert their influence. The transition to a new presidential leadership could well occur a year early, with all the uncertainties it will bring. It is questionable whether the country can afford its bloated security apparatus, and further uncertain whether that apparatus can contain Muslim fundamentalist groups who are expanding their influence in the Pashtun areas.
Corruption and bank scandals will discourage international investment and perhaps even aid donors. The very existence of a unified Afghan state could be at stake if the country’s elite and foreign patrons make the wrong policy choices.
Troops in Afghanistan Find Cheer With a Yule Logon
New York Times By ROD NORDLAND December 24, 2012
KABUL, Afghanistan - Marine Cpl. Brett Bass will do what a lot of American service members hope to this Christmas Day: “I’m going to give myself a gift of not turning on my alarm clock,” he said.
Maj. Bryan Burke will be trying to coax his 4-year-old daughter to say hello in a video chat. Specialist Marshall Little will have worked the graveyard shift as an intelligence analyst, so he’ll still be sleeping when an extravagant Christmas lunch is served at noon. By the time he wakes up, though, it will be morning in America, and he will go online with his wife to open some of the half-dozen presents waiting in his tent.
After more than 11 years of war in Afghanistan, there is still plenty of work to do. But this is the time of year when the tempo of the war slows dramatically. Insurgent attacks drop off as quickly as the snow piles up on mountainsides.
Here at one of Kabul’s main military bases, Camp KAIA, where the International Security Assistance Force Joint Command runs the war’s operational headquarters on the edge of Kabul International Airport, officials have done their best to put a festive face on a dusty and sometimes dreary landscape.
While Afghanistan may sometimes seem like America’s forgotten war — it was scarcely mentioned in the presidential campaigns — soldiers here say they do not feel forsaken. Technology helps, and many here said they would try to have video chats during present-opening time, despite time differences ranging from 9 1/2 to 14 1/2 hours. The military has also tried to create a festive atmosphere offline. Live Christmas trees have been flown in from New York, with a two-story-high one near the passenger terminal and eight-footers in the dining facilities. There is a big inflatable Santa on a roof, and next to the chapel is an inflatable helicopter driven by Santa, with a snowman along for the ride.
For weeks, the base has been deluged with packages, not just from family and friends but also from schools and churches back in the States. Capt. Dan Einert’s church, Beautiful Savior Lutheran in Topeka, Kan., shipped eight boxes full of 20 presents for everyone in his unit; the soldiers opened them at an office party on Monday night.
“It was a very touching gesture,” Captain Einert said.
Until a week ago, Specialist Monica Martin, an Army mail clerk from Bell, Ga., and the rest of her unit had been handling two tractor-trailer loads of mail a day — more than 5,000 packages daily, not counting cards and letters, on a base with about 5,000 soldiers.
“I’m going to be sleeping all day on Christmas,” she said.
The American dining hall on the base will have a huge selection on Christmas, perhaps with a bit more emphasis on the desserts than usual, and heavy on the pie. The hall will be dressed up, too: two of the Sri Lankan cooks for the contracting company that runs the place carved and painted plastic-foam sleighs, religious figures and reindeer on Christmas Eve. Crepe paper decorations in red and green had been strung (interspersed with “Stop Suicide” stickers, with a base phone number).
When it’s mealtime, 32 generals and other top officers will dish food out to the rank and file. It is an old American military tradition, but not one that allied brass share — or, in some cases, understand.
Still, nine Afghan generals will join the serving line this year, said Maj. Gen. Lawrence D. Nicholson, the deputy chief of staff and one of the servers. They were good sports about it, he said. “A couple of them were, ‘Great, I’m coming,’ ” General Nicholson said. “A couple were: ‘O.K., explain this to me again? We will do what?’ ”
The general knows that Christmases on deployment take a toll; he’s had four, and some here have had more. “This is one of the toughest times of the year,” he said. But he noted at least one upside: “You don’t have to worry about shopping malls.”
Deployed soldiers at bases like this one do have an on-base bazaar, where some can buy presents like Afghan souvenirs and lapis lazuli, rugs and carvings, and pay only United States domestic postal rates to ship them to people at home. Still, most do their shopping entirely online, where, many noted with satisfaction, the wrapping can be done for you.
“When you’re deployed, you make a second family,” said Major Burke, an Air Force officer spending his fourth Christmas away. “You do a lot of things together, and you make friends quickly. Misery loves company, I guess, and in this case you have plenty of company.”
The major said he would try later to talk to his daughters, Reagan, 4, and Ellie, 8 months, over Skype. Reagan has taken to refusing to speak on the phone, he said, but Skype entices her. “The younger one just thinks I’m on television,” he said.
Col. John Wilbourne, an Air Force trainer, is spending his first Christmas away from his family of four, and said he had come to Afghanistan somewhat “disenchanted” by the public mood of uninterest back home. “But I’ve seen the tremendous strides we have taken, and I know it sounds like a public service announcement, but I mean that,” he said. “I believe we’re going to win this.”
On Christmas Eve, he used his iPad to record part of a candlelight service, which included a soldiers’ ensemble of two saxophones, violin, drums and keyboard, as well as a choir to lead the caroling. His wife and mother had organized their relatives and friends to each send him a Christmas ornament, and the ornaments arrived day after day, to add to the tree on his desk.
“It’s been sad this Christmas, but kind of exciting, too,” Colonel Wilbourne said. “My children, they’re 13 and 12. They’re troupers. They miss me a lot, but it makes you feel better when we’re actually doing some good — helps them cope a little better.”
At the candlelight service, the senior chaplain, Col. Rod Lindsay, gave an impassioned sermon, talking about how soldiers are driven to do their work “because someone lit up their life.”
He talked about the soldier’s life as being constantly on guard against darkness, and noted that war zones had no monopoly on it. “There’s a place in Connecticut where the light is very dim,” Colonel Lindsay said. “We don’t have to go all the way to Afghanistan to experience a deep, gloomy, dreary darkness.”
For now, though, they are experiencing it here, and for the most part making the best of it.
Lawmakers React to Paris Meeting
TOLOnews.com By Sharif Amiry Monday, 24 December 2012
Afghan lawmakers criticized the absence of government response at the Paris meeting when Taliban representatives demanded amendments to the Constitution.
The lawmakers emphasized that the Afghan delegation should have strongly rejected the Taliban's demand.
"We should not provide too many chances to the Taliban. The High Peace Council representatives should have reacted strongly to Taliban demands," Kabul MP Shukria Barekzai said.
Lawmakers also demanded strengthening the role of the legislature in the peace process.
"Parliament's role in the important issues of the country should be strengthened. We should not surrender the fate of the country in the hands of deal-makers," MP Latif Pedram said.
The Paris meeting was attended by government representatives and members of major opposition parties, as well as Taliban and Hizb-e-Islami representatives.
The Taliban asked for immediate withdrawal of foreign forces, amendments to the Constitution, general amnesty and enforcement of human rights.
Senate Summons Head of Environmental Protection Agency
TOLOnews.com By Saleha Sadaat Monday, 24 December 2012
Senate summoned the head of the National Environmental Protection Agency (NEPA) Sunday about lingering concerns over air pollution in the capital, which is causing respiratory problems and, in some cases, death.
Senators criticised NEPA and said that if pollution across the country is not reduced, Afghanistan will confront a man-made disaster. Senators believe most of the steps taken by NEPA are symbolic and relentlessly grilled the NEPA chief, Mustafa Zahir.
“Mr. Zahir, as you see, people with different illnesses go to hospitals as a result of air pollution, and you see that many people are hospitalized. What programmes have you planned to reduce pollution?” said senator Bashar Samim.
“In most of the provinces, people are not even familiar with the name of the National Environmental Protection Agency. This shows that your activities for reducing pollution are trivial. You should plan large-scale programmes in this regard,” said senator Mawlawi Ghulam Muhiuddin Munsef.
Mustafa Zahir, grandson of Afghanistan's late King Zahir Shah, was clearly incensed at the grilling and referred to his background in his defending remarks.
“Dear senators, you know that I am grandson of the person who founded the parliament [in Afghanistan]. I am a prince, not a bum -- history has proved this matter. My activities have mostly been practical, not just theoretical. I have myself planted 4,000 saplings,” said Mustafa Zahir.
Reacting to Zahir’s remarks, Senate Chairman Fazl Hadi Muslimyar said: “Well, Mister Prince, it is correct that you are the grandson of the Father of the Nation. We know enough of the history of your grandfather. But we called you here today to learn what, as the head of the National Environmental Protection Agency, your responses are regarding pollution reduction.”
Although the government has frequently talked of serious efforts to reduce air pollution in the capital, experts believe effective programmes for saving Kabul from this lethal threat have not yet materialized.
www.afghanistannewscenter.com