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Afghan airstrike kills 6 Taliban including key commander
IDAN SHAHR, Afghanistan, Oct. 22 (Xinhua) -- Six Taliban militants, including Mawlawi Naqibullah, a key commander, were killed in Wardak province 35 km west of capital Kabul as their hideout came under air attack early Monday morning, police said.
"A group of Taliban rebels were meeting in a house in Chak district at 01:00 a.m. local time to chalk out terror attacks when the aircraft of NATO-led coalition forces stormed the hideout, killing six militants including Taliban key commander Mawalwi Naqibullah," police spokesman Abdul Wali told Xinhua.
He also said that Mawlawi Ghulam the shadowy governor of Taliban militants in Chak district was also killed in the attack. No civilians were injured, he added.
The elimination of Mawalwi Naqibullah is a major setback to the Taliban outfit in Wardak and adjoining provinces as he had organized Taliban operations in the province, he said.
Taliban militants fighting the government are yet to make comment.
Air strikes, militancy kill 15 Afghans including 5 civilians
KABUL, Oct. 22 (Xinhua) -- In conflict-ridden Afghanistan, militancy and counter-militancy security have left 15 people including five civilians and eight Taliban militants dead since Sunday night, officials confirmed.
In efforts to root out Taliban militants, the NATO-led forces, according to a local official, launched an air strike killing six Taliban militants including a key commander in Wardak province 35 km west of Afghan capital Kabul in the wee hours of Monday.
"A group of Taliban rebels were meeting in a house in Chak district at 01:00 a.m. local time to chalk out terror attacks when the aircraft of NATO-led coalition forces stormed the hideout killing six militants including Taliban key commander Mawalwi Naqibullah," police spokesman in Wardak province, Abdul Wali told Xinhua.
He also stated that Mawlawi Ghulam, the shadowy governor of Taliban militants in Chak district, was also killed in the attack.
The elimination of Mawalwi Naqibullah, according to the official is a major setback to Taliban outfit in Wardak and adjoining provinces as he organized Taliban operations in the province. There were no harms on civilians, he added.
A similar air raid in the Taliban former stronghold Kandahar 450 km south of Kabul had also left two Taliban fighters dead on Sunday night, a statement released by Kandahar provincial administration on Monday said.
"The aircrafts of NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) attacked and killed two Taliban militants who were busy planting a mine on a road in Panjwai district, Kandahar province Sunday night," the statement emphasized.
In a related incident, two Afghan police were killed and four others sustained injuries as a roadside bomb struck a police vehicle in Ismael Khil district of Khost province 150 km southeast of Afghan capital Kabul Monday morning, a local official confirmed.
"The tragic incident happened at around 10:00 a.m. local time when police were on routine patrol as a result two policemen including an officer were martyred and four others sustained injuries," Wali Shah Humat the governor of Ismael Khil district confirmed to Xinhua.
He also put the deadly attack on the enemies of peace, a term used against Taliban militants. However, the outfit fighting the government has yet to comment.
In a shocking incident, unknown gunmen sneaked into a house shot and dead five civilians on Sunday night in Nangarhar province 125 km east of capital city Kabul, according to a local official.
"Unidentified gunmen entered a house in Momandara district late Sunday night and after brutally killing five civilians, all male members of the family, made their good escape," district governor, Shukrullah who like many Afghans uses one name, told Xinhua.
He also stated that a woman was injured in the incident.
Without pointing finger at any particular groups or individuals, the official said investigation had been initiated to identify and arrest the culprits.
Lawmakers Urge Karzai to Respect Decision on ECC
TOLOnews.com By Sharif Amiry Sunday, 21 October 2012
Afghan lawmakers on Sunday hit back at the president's calls for the foreigner commissioner positions to be removed from the country's Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC), saying he should respect the parliament's decision.
"Karzai is once again trying to increase tensions between the government and the legislative bodies. The president should respect the parliament's decision," Farah MP Humaira Ayoubi said Sunday.
The presidential office reiterated the statement of President Hamid Karzai last Thursday that foreign advisers working for the Independent Election Commission was a violation of national sovereignty.
"The presence of foreign advisers at the Independent Election Commission of Afghanistan is unacceptable," presidential deputy spokesman Siamak Herawi said Sunday. "This will pave the way for foreign infiltration into the Afghan election."
The draft of the election law, approved last month by the lawmakers, recommends the ECC commissioners to be increased from five to seven with two seats reserved for foreigners. It has been sent to the Senate for final approval.
The senators were encouraged Sunday to make the decision with Afghanistan's national sovereignty in mind.
"You should consider national sovereignty and national interests in your decision," first vice chair of the Afghan Senate House Mohamad Alam Ezedyar told the senators.
Some senators believe that the absence of foreign advisors at the ECC may allow electoral fraud.
"If the foreigners are not in that organisation, we will witness vast fraud in election," Senator Hedayatullah Rehahi said.
Meanwhile, the Independent Electoral Commission announced its impartiality in the conflicts between the government and the legislators, saying that any decision taken by the authorised bodies would be implemented.
"This a problem between the parliament and the government. We are impartial," IEC spokesman Noor Mohammad Noor said Sunday.
China's CNPC begins oil production in Afghanistan
Reuters By Hamid Shalizi Sun Oct 21, 2012
AMU DARYA, Afghanistan - A Chinese firm has started extracting oil from the Amu Darya basin in northern Afghanistan, mining officials said, a key moment in the country's quest to pay its own way.
Afghanistan signed a 25-year contract with National Petroleum Corp (CNPC) last December covering drilling and a planned refinery in the northern provinces of Faryab and Sar-e-Pul. It is the first major oil production in the country.
"The company will extract 1,950 barrels per day, which will crucially help Afghanistan towards self-sustainability and economic independence," mining minister Wahidullah Shahrani told Reuters on Sunday as huge machines started drilling next to mud houses in remote Sar-e-Pul.
The venture with CNPC, which has invested hundreds of millions of dollars, was expected to produce billions of dollars over the next two decades - CNPC will pay a 15 percent royalty on oil, 20 percent corporate tax and give 50-70 percent of its profit from the project to the government.
From January 1, CNPC will extract 1.5 million barrels of oil annually, Shahrani said. Up to 87 million barrels of crude are estimated to be in Amu Darya.
Its inauguration on Sunday should lend confidence to nervous Chinese investors who have halted work on the $3 billion Aynak copper mine project in eastern Logar province, where insurgents trying to wreck the project have stepped up attacks. Afghan officials have been trying to convince the investors to restart.
As the end-2014 deadline looms for most foreign troops to leave, billions of dollars in aid is expected to dry up, leading Afghanistan to look for ways to become financially independent.
The Amu Darya basin should be able to supply Afghanistan with all its domestic oil needs eventually, said Weis Sherdel, director of the three Amu Darya oil blocks for the mining ministry.
The country imports around $3.5 billion of oil a year from Russia, Turkmenistan, the United Arab Emirates and Uzbekistan.
CNPC's Amu Darya crude will be sent to Turkmenistan where it will be refined and then sold to Afghan clients or abroad, Sherdel said. CNPC should complete work on an Afghan refinery in 2-3 years, officials said.
Shahrani said the development of the Amu Darya basin had provided Afghans with 2,100 jobs in the Sar-e-Pul province of 500,000 where unemployment is more than twice the national average, at 18 percent.
The venture was disrupted in June when men loyal to army chief of staff and Uzbek warlord General Abdul Rashid Dostum intimidated Chinese engineers in the area, demanding a share in proceeds, government officials in Kabul said.
Posters of Dostum, originally from nearby Jawzjan province, were hung around the surrounding villages and towns of the Amu Darya basin.
Chinese and Indian bidders have been frontrunners for deals to develop Afghan mineral deposits valued at up to $3 trillion, worrying Western firms that have hesitated to invest because of security concerns.
The country is now bracing for the end-October bid closure for oil deposits in the Afghan Tajik basin, also in the north and which, at an estimated 1.9 billion barrels, is the biggest ever oil project in Afghanistan.
Interest shown by Exxon Mobil (XOM.N) in July lent credence to hopes the government may be making progress in efforts to lessen its reliance on aid, though Shahrani told Reuters last month the U.S. group had not come to look at it.
(Writing by Amie Ferris-Rotman; Editing by Dan Lalor)
Roadside bomb kills 2 Afghan police, wounds 4
KHOST, Afghanistan, Oct. 22 (Xinhua) -- A roadside bomb struck a police van in Ismael Khil district of Khost province, 150 km southeast of Afghan capital Kabul, killing two police and wounding four others on Monday, a local official said.
"The tragic incident happened at around 10:00 a.m. local time when police were on routine patrol. As a result two policemen including an officer were martyred and four others sustained injuries," Wali Shah Humat the governor of Ismael Khil district confirmed to Xinhua.
He also put the deadly attack on the enemies of peace, a term used against Taliban militants. However, the outfit fighting the government has yet to comment.
Nine Afghan Taliban join peace process
HERAT, Afghanistan, Oct. 22 (Xinhua) -- Nine Taliban militants under Mullah Abdul Sabour laid down arms and joined the government- backed peace process in Herat province 640 km west of Kabul on Monday.
The former fighters were active in Karakh district, according to officials.
Welcoming the former militants, the deputy to provincial governor, Asil Jami said, "with joining these people to the peace process the security situation will be further improved in Karakh district and adjoining areas."
They also handed over their weapons to police.
Taliban militants have yet to make comment.
More than 3,000 Taliban fighters, according to Afghan officials have given up fighting and joined the government-backed peace process over the past one year. However, Taliban outfit has rejected the claim as baseless.
Karzai Meets With U.S. Envoy About Pakistan Visit
October 22, 2012 Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
Afghan President Hamid Karzai has met in Kabul with U.S. President Barack Obama’s special envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan, Marc Grossman.
Karzai’s office said in a statement that during the October 21 meeting Grossman spoke to Karzai about his recent visit to Pakistan and talks with Pakistani officials about the Afghan peace process and moves to counter terrorism and extremism.
Officials say Taliban and Al-Qaeda militants use Pakistan’s northwest tribal region as a base to prepare for attacks on U.S., Afghan, and allied forces in Afghanistan.
The Afghan presidential statement said the meeting was also attended by Douglas Lute, U.S. deputy national security adviser; U.S. General John Allen, the commander of NATO and U.S. forces in Afghanistan; and James Cunningham, the U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan.
Based on reporting by dpa and RFE/RL
Award-Winning Film Breathes New Life Into Afghan Cinema
RFE/RL By Frud Bezhan October 21, 2012
The new Afghan film "Buzkashi Boys," has earned international critical acclaim for its poignant portrayal of two impoverished boys in Kabul struggling to realize their dreams.
While earning accolades abroad, the film has also made waves in Afghanistan, where it has invigorated the small local film scene as it recovers from decades of conflict.
Afghan cinema had to endure particular hardship under the Taliban regime, when films were outlawed and movie theaters were burned down.
“Buzkashi Boys” is one of the first major films to be set and shot entirely in Kabul.
It is also the first to be produced by the Afghan Film Project, a non-profit production company that aims to rebuild the fledgling Afghan film scene by mentoring and training local filmmakers on major film productions.
During the production of “Buzkashi Boys,” a dozen aspiring Afghan filmmakers, some with technical skills, the majority with only a passion for filmmaking, were tutored through the production and post-production process, with many getting their first opportunity to write, produce, and direct a major film.
'About, By, And For Afghans'
Sam French, an American documentary maker who directed the film and founded the Afghan Film Project, says “Buzkashi Boys” is a testament to the success of those Afghan filmmakers.
He hopes the endeavor will provide Afghan filmmakers with the know-how to produce their own films and spur the growth of the local film sector.
“When I came here I realized there wasn’t really a functioning film industry," he says. "I thought there was a need to build capacity in the industry. We wanted to find a way for [Afghans] to actually work on a production. We worked side by side to make a film that was about Afghans, by Afghans, and for Afghans.”
French was without a job and had barely an understanding of the country when he moved to Kabul in 2008.
He says he expected to be hunkered down in a bunker but soon realized the city was full of inspiring, untold stories.
French maintains that it was a desire to tell these unreported stories that inspired him to start writing the script for "Buzkashi Boys" in 2009.
"When I came [to Afghanistan] I expected a country full of bombs and bullets," he says. "But what I found was a country full of stories and people who welcomed me with open arms. So, I opened a production company to try and tell stories that the media doesn’t tell; [to tell stories] that are beyond the war.”
The result was “Buzkashi Boys,” a 30-minute film shot over 16 days in Kabul in the winter of 2011.
According to French, the majority of the funding for the film came from a $200,000 grant given to his production company by the U.S. State Department. “Buzkashi Boys” is a coming-of-age story about two poor Afghan boys, one an orphaned urchin and the other the defiant son of a blacksmith.
Both boys, who are best friends, fight to realize their common dream of escaping crippling poverty and the streets of Kabul to play buzkashi, the national sport of Afghanistan.
Buzkashi is a brutal version of equestrian polo played with the carcass of a dead goat rather than a ball.
Audiences from around the world have heaped praise on French's heartrending film, which has been shown in cinemas and international film festivals throughout the United States, Europe, and Asia.
It recently won the best drama award at the LA Shorts Fest, which makes the film eligible to be nominated for an Academy Award.
Shooting Beset By Problems
"Buzkashi Boys" is the result of two years of constant setbacks and grueling delays. Filming in Kabul, a heavily-militarized city, posed many challenges, which threatened to derail the film on numerous occasions.
"We had to get permission from the Afghan government, from the local police, and the military to film," says French. "Finding the crew also took a long time. We were also battling weather the whole time. It would snow one day and then the next day it would be bright and sunny so continuity was a big issue. Logistically, it was also a challenge."Since the ousting of the Taliban in 2001, the Afghan film industry has experienced a quiet resurgence.
In the past decade, the success of Afghan films such as "Osama" and "Kandahar" have fuelled huge interest in filmmaking.
But films of such caliber have been in short supply. Even before the arrival of war in Afghanistan some three decades ago, the film scene was small, with only a few movies being made each year.
Most of the films Afghans watched were from Bollywood or the Soviet Union.
In French's opinion, imported foreign films have had an important influence on the current movie scene, where many local filmmakers produce copycat versions of popular action films from India and Pakistan.
According to the American filmmaker, who is writing the script for a new political thriller set in Kabul, a "homegrown-generated" Afghan film sector has yet to become firmly established, but the ingredients for it to succeed are there provided that proper resources are allocated to the industry.
“[Afghan] culture is steeped in poetry and stories," he says. "There is [a] hunger to tell stories. But the problem is the lack of capacity, the lack of skills, [the] lack of resources, and the lack of equipment. [The Afghan film industry] is still a very nascent industry; it’s still fledgling. The filmmakers here need support.”
Feature: Poor Afghans farm hashish as alternative to poppy
KABUL, Oct. 22 (Xinhua) -- "I am hopeful to harvest some 100 kg hashish from this field and that will help me to survive the harsh winter," a farmer in northern Baghlan province who introduced himself as Awaz Mohammad murmured while walking on his small hash farm.
Carrying an assault rifle AK-47, the bearded man defended farming the contraband, saying since the government does not allow them to plant poppy, some of the villagers adopted hashish as an alternative to earn money.
Interestingly the hashish farms are located along a busy road linking Andarab district to the provincial capital Pul-e-Khumri city and all those including police personnel could easily see the hashish farms when driving.
Afghan government with the support of the international community has been fighting hard to eliminate poppy. However, Afghanistan, according to United Nations Office on Drug and Crime (UNODC) has topped poppy producing nations.
According to the report released in October 2011, the potential opium production in 2011 was estimated at 5,800 metric tons, a 61 percent increase compared with 2010 when nearly 50 percent of the illegal product affected by diseases.
With government's hectic campaign against illicit, the poppy growing farmers have abandoned poppy cultivation in peaceful areas. Nonetheless, some farmers availing fragile security, corruption and allegedly with police connivance resorted to hashish, an easily profitable but illegal crop in Afghanistan.
"People with luxury vehicles come to our doorstep, pay cash and take our hashish out of the district," Mohammad said.
Justifying his act, Mohammad went on to say that 7 kg wheat costs 150 Afghanis while the price of 1 kg hashish is between 3, 000 Afghanis to 4,000 Afghanis (around 70 to 80 U.S. dollars) at door step.
"I am a poor man and have no permanent job and no regular income. In the past I used to grow poppy but now hashish," Mohammad added, saying the poor and jobless people have no choice but to take maximum advantage from the situation to earn as much as possible.
Afghan government in 2010 had announced 20 out of the country's 34 provinces as poppy-free. According to officials, the opium poppy is largely grown in the southern region where security is poor and Taliban militants are active.
Helmand and the neighboring Kandahar, the former stronghold of Taliban fighters where the security problems are prevalent, according to UNODC report, are the major drug producing provinces in Afghanistan.
However, according to the report, the number of poppy-free provinces decreased from 20 in 2010 to 17 in 2011 out of the country's 34 provinces as Baghlan and Faryab provinces in the northern region and Kapisa province in the eastern region have lost the poppy-free status and resumed poppy cultivation.
Parallel to unchecked poppy products in Afghanistan the drug addicted number has also gone up and more than 1 million Afghans, according to officials, are addicts in the country.
Like Awaz Mohammad, another farmer Abdul Raziq is also looking forward to reaping good profit from his small hashish farm this year.
"I am hopeful to harvest at least 50 kg hashish and earn some 150,000 Afghanis (some 3000 U.S. dollars) this year."
However, officials describe hashish plantation as an isolated case, saying the government would continue to fight against all kinds of narcotics tooth and nail.
Feature: 1st football national league brings fun to war-weary Afghans
By Farid Behbud and Chen Xin
KABUL, Oct. 22 (Xinhua) -- "It is a great day. Millions of my war-weary people have fun today and this is all thanks to football, " Hamid Jazemi, a member of the champion Afghan football team, said over the weekend.
Afghanistan's first one-month long professional football league ended on Friday after the western team Toofan Harirod won over northern team Simorgh Alborz with 2-1 in their final match.
"Toofan means typhoon or storm and Harirod is an Afghan river in west. I have never thought that one day I could be part of Toofan Harirod," Jazemi told Xinhua in an interview after the match.
Jazemi said that he was surprised that football could bring so much happiness and fun to sport lovers in his war-torn country.
The team of Jazemi won the championship match held in a newly- build Afghanistan Football Federation (AFF) Stadium in Kabul.
Afghanistan Premier League, the country's first professional football league, was announced in July by AFF with an objective of helping bring peace to the country.
"Holding this league is a great achievement for Afghanistan's football. It is the first national championship in the history of sport in the country. It is an important step in sports and would further promote football in the country," said AFF President Keramuddin Karim.
The AFF was founded in 1922, and has been a member of FIFA since 1948 and the Asian Football Confederation since 1954. It has become much more active since the fall of the Taliban in late 2001.
The championship consisted of eight teams from across the country; the tournament would help choose players for the national team, Karim said.
Jazemi said that it is his utmost desire to be an Afghan football star. "I wish I could be a member of national team one day. This league would help me to do so," he said.
He said that he has played in several provincial football teams in western Herat province.
Since the collapse of Taliban regime, Afghan athletes have already taken part in several competitions at regional and international levels and started bringing medals and honors to the country.
Beijing Olympic medalist Rohullah Nikpa won the only medal in London 2012 Olympic Games for Afghanistan.
The International Olympic Committee (IOC) had suspended the membership of Afghanistan in 1999 due to Taliban's brutal policies that included restrictions on the country's athletes.
The Taliban had outlawed a series of sports activities aside from forcing athletes to grow long beard and wear tall shirts and trousers during matches.
The IOC lifted the suspension in 2002 after the collapse of Taliban regime.
Two Campaigns Skirt Talk of Tough Choices in Afghanistan
New York Times By DAVID E. SANGER and THOM SHANKER October 21, 2012
WASHINGTON - Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. described the Obama administration’s latest war strategy in deliberately stark terms in his debate with Representative Paul D. Ryan: “We are leaving Afghanistan in 2014, period.” Mr. Ryan did not dispute that deadline, but insisted on a little wiggle room, saying that Mitt Romney would consult with his generals about the timing and resources and conditions on the ground, to avoid imperiling America’s gains in a war that began in 2001.
Remarkably, that exchange 11 days ago may have been the most substantive discussion all campaign season about how to manage the longest-running conflict in American history. It was not an argument over what America’s goals should be, but how fast to get out.
Yet for either President Obama or Mr. Romney, finding a satisfactory end to the war in Afghanistan and maintaining American influence in the continuing covert battle in Pakistan will be a far greater challenge than simply deciding whether to turn out the lights, or dim them, on the war effort after 2014. Managing the conflict while America heads for the exits will require the next president to confront a series of difficult choices, some of which may finally surface Monday night at the third and final presidential debate, when Afghanistan will be one of five subjects the two candidates discuss.
Even after more than a decade of conflict, the decisions that will be required will be painful: Will the United States keep training the Afghan Army, even if “green- on-blue” attacks — Afghan troops turning on their trainers — keep taking a deadly toll? Will the next president work through the increasingly hostile Afghan president, Hamid Karzai, or work around him, since he is supposed to leave office around the time that American troops depart? Will he keep trying to negotiate with the Taliban, or exercise influence by keeping an “enduring presence” of 10,000 to 15,000 troops inside Afghanistan?
Even if the next president successfully negotiates that long-term American presence in Afghanistan — a part of the administration’s plan that was never acknowledged by Mr. Biden in the debate — will it prove long enough to keep the Taliban from retaking strategic cities? Will it sustain attacks inside Pakistan against insurgents, and, if necessary, enable the United States to respond quickly enough if Pakistan’s fast-expanding nuclear arsenal appears in jeopardy of falling into the hands of extremists?
Underlying all these questions is a more fundamental one: Was Mr. Obama’s troop increase, which officially came to an end last month, worth the cost in American blood and treasure? Mr. Obama has avoided that discussion throughout the campaign. When the so-called surge of troops ended, returning the American force level to its pre-increase total of 68,000, he never acknowledged the moment, perhaps to avoid reminding Americans that so many American troops remained, or to avoid reminding the Taliban that even those troops will soon be gone.
For his part, Mr. Romney has rarely delved into the question of how he would handle the war differently. In January, trying to appeal to his conservative base, he declared, “We should not negotiate with the Taliban, we should defeat the Taliban,” adding that his strategy would amount to, “We go anywhere they are, and we kill them.” After aides warned him that sounded like a prescription for endless war, he has not repeated that view since.
The reality facing the next president is a fairly grim one. Officials say that the next occupant of the Oval Office will have to confront the fact that as Americans and their allies pull out, the Taliban will regain control over territory American troops fought and died to secure.
“When you look at the map in two years, the Taliban are going to be controlling big, rural swaths of the south,” one senior administration official said. “And that’s something no one wants to talk about very much.”
Perhaps the absence of any sustained discussion in the campaign should be of little surprise: Mr. Obama is haunted by seemingly reasonable assumptions made in 2009 about how the troop increase would turn out, almost all of which turned out to be off the mark. And Mr. Romney sooner or later will have to decide whether his call for a restoration of American leadership, which he talks about almost daily at campaign stops, includes extending a war that has grown deeply unpopular, even among Republicans.
The most immediate issue facing the next president is how to ensure that Afghanistan’s major cities remain in Afghanistan’s control. For Mr. Obama, it is not a new problem.
When the president was first assessing the Afghan and Pakistan strategy in 2009, intelligence reports circulating in the White House and the Pentagon reported that Taliban fighters were advancing on Kandahar, Afghanistan’s second-largest city and the Taliban’s spiritual home. Other insurgent units were moving into position to encircle the capital, Kabul. Members of Mr. Obama’s national security team saw a possible disaster looming early in his presidency, one that to his older aides was reminiscent of the scenes of Americans fleeing Saigon, when Mr. Obama was still a teenager in Hawaii.
At the time, the administration dismissed the threat. But securing the Karzai government — even though it had just won re-election in a contest that involved significant fraud — helped drive Mr. Obama’s decision to commit more than 30,000 extra troops to Afghanistan, over the reservations of Mr. Biden and others.
Administration officials are finally beginning to acknowledge publicly how dire the situation actually was in 2009. “Afghanistan faced the real prospect that the Taliban would take over large parts of the country,” Secretary of Defense Leon E. Panetta said recently, echoing more specific assessments by lower-level officials who declined to be named. “I think there was a real risk that the mission in Afghanistan might very well fail.”
There is no question that the troop increase blunted Taliban offensives, forcing the insurgents to retreat from critical population centers across Kandahar and Helmand Provinces. Once they retreated, Afghan forces were able to send troops into these areas and establish security. And the security ring around Kabul has been extended.
The military, eager to provide metrics to prove what it accomplished, notes major improvements in civilian life. Before the troop increase, 7.1 million Afghan children were in school, including 2.7 million girls. Now the figure is 8.2 million children, including 3.1 million girls. The Pentagon argues that 80 percent of the Afghan population now lives in comparative safety, in places where only 20 percent of the attacks initiated by insurgents occur. Today the fear is a bit different: that the tenuous gains made by the troop increase will erode.
“We wanted to wrest back control of the south from the Taliban — that was their psychological birthplace and real center of gravity,” said Brig. Gen. Gordon B. Davis, who spent years in Kabul and now oversees the teaching of Afghanistan’s lessons at the Army’s main school for young officers, at Fort Leavenworth. But when asked to assess whether the effort was worth the cost, General Davis chose his words carefully, as do his colleagues. “I think so, to date,” he said. “We’ll really have to wait and see until next year to see just how successful, how enduring, it is.”
General Davis’s question about “endurance” is the one likely to dominate Situation Room debates about Afghanistan over the next year. The 353,000 Afghan security forces trained by the United States and its NATO allies may not be able to hold the rural territory, despite Mr. Obama’s instructions in 2009 that the military should not seize any territory that it could not reliably transfer to the Afghans.
If the Taliban start moving toward the cities, would American forces re-enter the conflict? Mr. Biden seemed to say no at the vice presidential debate. White House officials say only if Kabul is threatened would the United States intervene beyond the planned mission to train Afghan forces and go after high-value terrorist targets. Mr. Romney and Mr. Ryan insist they will make sure hard-fought gains are not lost, but they do not say what they are prepared to do to prevent that.
Nor has any candidate talked about how to deal with Mr. Karzai, whose promises of ending a legacy of corruption and ineptitude have gone unfulfilled. Indeed, as the troop increase ended, officials in Washington were angered to hear Mr. Karzai publicly denounce the American-led war effort. Those criticisms came as the Pentagon tallied the 2,000th American death of the war.
Then there is Pakistan. Even the biggest enthusiasts of the troop increase — those in the military and the White House who maintain the Taliban have been rolled back — concede that Pakistan was a place where almost nothing worked. “Offering them a new, steady source of aid doesn’t give us much leverage,” one White House official noted in a recent interview, “and threatening to cut off aid doesn’t give us much, either.”
A senior military official said that before the troop increase there were roughly 2,000 insurgents moving regularly across the mountainous border between Afghanistan and Pakistan. And after the increase was over, he said, there are still about 2,000.
The low was hit in 2011, after a series of events that angered both sides: the killing of two Pakistani assailants by a C.I.A. security officer, the raid on Osama bin Laden’s lair in Abbottabad that sparked outrage over the violation of Pakistani sovereignty, and the American airstrike on a Pakistani border outpost that killed 24 soldiers.
Lurking just beyond the tensions over counterterrorism is another problem that the administration has steadfastly refused to discuss in public: the rapid expansion of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal. The growth has largely come in the form of new, smaller, more mobile weapons, which many fear would be easier to steal. And attacks on Pakistani bases by the Pakistani Taliban, including a series in recent months at sites where nuclear weapons are believed to have been stored, has only driven the anxiety higher.
American officials now talk broadly of a new awareness among Pakistanis of the threat posed to their nation by militancy, and they have heard promises by the government of a military initiative this coming winter — but they predicted the same thing at the beginning of the American troop increase.
www.afghanistannewscenter.com
IDAN SHAHR, Afghanistan, Oct. 22 (Xinhua) -- Six Taliban militants, including Mawlawi Naqibullah, a key commander, were killed in Wardak province 35 km west of capital Kabul as their hideout came under air attack early Monday morning, police said.
"A group of Taliban rebels were meeting in a house in Chak district at 01:00 a.m. local time to chalk out terror attacks when the aircraft of NATO-led coalition forces stormed the hideout, killing six militants including Taliban key commander Mawalwi Naqibullah," police spokesman Abdul Wali told Xinhua.
He also said that Mawlawi Ghulam the shadowy governor of Taliban militants in Chak district was also killed in the attack. No civilians were injured, he added.
The elimination of Mawalwi Naqibullah is a major setback to the Taliban outfit in Wardak and adjoining provinces as he had organized Taliban operations in the province, he said.
Taliban militants fighting the government are yet to make comment.
Air strikes, militancy kill 15 Afghans including 5 civilians
KABUL, Oct. 22 (Xinhua) -- In conflict-ridden Afghanistan, militancy and counter-militancy security have left 15 people including five civilians and eight Taliban militants dead since Sunday night, officials confirmed.
In efforts to root out Taliban militants, the NATO-led forces, according to a local official, launched an air strike killing six Taliban militants including a key commander in Wardak province 35 km west of Afghan capital Kabul in the wee hours of Monday.
"A group of Taliban rebels were meeting in a house in Chak district at 01:00 a.m. local time to chalk out terror attacks when the aircraft of NATO-led coalition forces stormed the hideout killing six militants including Taliban key commander Mawalwi Naqibullah," police spokesman in Wardak province, Abdul Wali told Xinhua.
He also stated that Mawlawi Ghulam, the shadowy governor of Taliban militants in Chak district, was also killed in the attack.
The elimination of Mawalwi Naqibullah, according to the official is a major setback to Taliban outfit in Wardak and adjoining provinces as he organized Taliban operations in the province. There were no harms on civilians, he added.
A similar air raid in the Taliban former stronghold Kandahar 450 km south of Kabul had also left two Taliban fighters dead on Sunday night, a statement released by Kandahar provincial administration on Monday said.
"The aircrafts of NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) attacked and killed two Taliban militants who were busy planting a mine on a road in Panjwai district, Kandahar province Sunday night," the statement emphasized.
In a related incident, two Afghan police were killed and four others sustained injuries as a roadside bomb struck a police vehicle in Ismael Khil district of Khost province 150 km southeast of Afghan capital Kabul Monday morning, a local official confirmed.
"The tragic incident happened at around 10:00 a.m. local time when police were on routine patrol as a result two policemen including an officer were martyred and four others sustained injuries," Wali Shah Humat the governor of Ismael Khil district confirmed to Xinhua.
He also put the deadly attack on the enemies of peace, a term used against Taliban militants. However, the outfit fighting the government has yet to comment.
In a shocking incident, unknown gunmen sneaked into a house shot and dead five civilians on Sunday night in Nangarhar province 125 km east of capital city Kabul, according to a local official.
"Unidentified gunmen entered a house in Momandara district late Sunday night and after brutally killing five civilians, all male members of the family, made their good escape," district governor, Shukrullah who like many Afghans uses one name, told Xinhua.
He also stated that a woman was injured in the incident.
Without pointing finger at any particular groups or individuals, the official said investigation had been initiated to identify and arrest the culprits.
Lawmakers Urge Karzai to Respect Decision on ECC
TOLOnews.com By Sharif Amiry Sunday, 21 October 2012
Afghan lawmakers on Sunday hit back at the president's calls for the foreigner commissioner positions to be removed from the country's Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC), saying he should respect the parliament's decision.
"Karzai is once again trying to increase tensions between the government and the legislative bodies. The president should respect the parliament's decision," Farah MP Humaira Ayoubi said Sunday.
The presidential office reiterated the statement of President Hamid Karzai last Thursday that foreign advisers working for the Independent Election Commission was a violation of national sovereignty.
"The presence of foreign advisers at the Independent Election Commission of Afghanistan is unacceptable," presidential deputy spokesman Siamak Herawi said Sunday. "This will pave the way for foreign infiltration into the Afghan election."
The draft of the election law, approved last month by the lawmakers, recommends the ECC commissioners to be increased from five to seven with two seats reserved for foreigners. It has been sent to the Senate for final approval.
The senators were encouraged Sunday to make the decision with Afghanistan's national sovereignty in mind.
"You should consider national sovereignty and national interests in your decision," first vice chair of the Afghan Senate House Mohamad Alam Ezedyar told the senators.
Some senators believe that the absence of foreign advisors at the ECC may allow electoral fraud.
"If the foreigners are not in that organisation, we will witness vast fraud in election," Senator Hedayatullah Rehahi said.
Meanwhile, the Independent Electoral Commission announced its impartiality in the conflicts between the government and the legislators, saying that any decision taken by the authorised bodies would be implemented.
"This a problem between the parliament and the government. We are impartial," IEC spokesman Noor Mohammad Noor said Sunday.
China's CNPC begins oil production in Afghanistan
Reuters By Hamid Shalizi Sun Oct 21, 2012
AMU DARYA, Afghanistan - A Chinese firm has started extracting oil from the Amu Darya basin in northern Afghanistan, mining officials said, a key moment in the country's quest to pay its own way.
Afghanistan signed a 25-year contract with National Petroleum Corp (CNPC) last December covering drilling and a planned refinery in the northern provinces of Faryab and Sar-e-Pul. It is the first major oil production in the country.
"The company will extract 1,950 barrels per day, which will crucially help Afghanistan towards self-sustainability and economic independence," mining minister Wahidullah Shahrani told Reuters on Sunday as huge machines started drilling next to mud houses in remote Sar-e-Pul.
The venture with CNPC, which has invested hundreds of millions of dollars, was expected to produce billions of dollars over the next two decades - CNPC will pay a 15 percent royalty on oil, 20 percent corporate tax and give 50-70 percent of its profit from the project to the government.
From January 1, CNPC will extract 1.5 million barrels of oil annually, Shahrani said. Up to 87 million barrels of crude are estimated to be in Amu Darya.
Its inauguration on Sunday should lend confidence to nervous Chinese investors who have halted work on the $3 billion Aynak copper mine project in eastern Logar province, where insurgents trying to wreck the project have stepped up attacks. Afghan officials have been trying to convince the investors to restart.
As the end-2014 deadline looms for most foreign troops to leave, billions of dollars in aid is expected to dry up, leading Afghanistan to look for ways to become financially independent.
The Amu Darya basin should be able to supply Afghanistan with all its domestic oil needs eventually, said Weis Sherdel, director of the three Amu Darya oil blocks for the mining ministry.
The country imports around $3.5 billion of oil a year from Russia, Turkmenistan, the United Arab Emirates and Uzbekistan.
CNPC's Amu Darya crude will be sent to Turkmenistan where it will be refined and then sold to Afghan clients or abroad, Sherdel said. CNPC should complete work on an Afghan refinery in 2-3 years, officials said.
Shahrani said the development of the Amu Darya basin had provided Afghans with 2,100 jobs in the Sar-e-Pul province of 500,000 where unemployment is more than twice the national average, at 18 percent.
The venture was disrupted in June when men loyal to army chief of staff and Uzbek warlord General Abdul Rashid Dostum intimidated Chinese engineers in the area, demanding a share in proceeds, government officials in Kabul said.
Posters of Dostum, originally from nearby Jawzjan province, were hung around the surrounding villages and towns of the Amu Darya basin.
Chinese and Indian bidders have been frontrunners for deals to develop Afghan mineral deposits valued at up to $3 trillion, worrying Western firms that have hesitated to invest because of security concerns.
The country is now bracing for the end-October bid closure for oil deposits in the Afghan Tajik basin, also in the north and which, at an estimated 1.9 billion barrels, is the biggest ever oil project in Afghanistan.
Interest shown by Exxon Mobil (XOM.N) in July lent credence to hopes the government may be making progress in efforts to lessen its reliance on aid, though Shahrani told Reuters last month the U.S. group had not come to look at it.
(Writing by Amie Ferris-Rotman; Editing by Dan Lalor)
Roadside bomb kills 2 Afghan police, wounds 4
KHOST, Afghanistan, Oct. 22 (Xinhua) -- A roadside bomb struck a police van in Ismael Khil district of Khost province, 150 km southeast of Afghan capital Kabul, killing two police and wounding four others on Monday, a local official said.
"The tragic incident happened at around 10:00 a.m. local time when police were on routine patrol. As a result two policemen including an officer were martyred and four others sustained injuries," Wali Shah Humat the governor of Ismael Khil district confirmed to Xinhua.
He also put the deadly attack on the enemies of peace, a term used against Taliban militants. However, the outfit fighting the government has yet to comment.
Nine Afghan Taliban join peace process
HERAT, Afghanistan, Oct. 22 (Xinhua) -- Nine Taliban militants under Mullah Abdul Sabour laid down arms and joined the government- backed peace process in Herat province 640 km west of Kabul on Monday.
The former fighters were active in Karakh district, according to officials.
Welcoming the former militants, the deputy to provincial governor, Asil Jami said, "with joining these people to the peace process the security situation will be further improved in Karakh district and adjoining areas."
They also handed over their weapons to police.
Taliban militants have yet to make comment.
More than 3,000 Taliban fighters, according to Afghan officials have given up fighting and joined the government-backed peace process over the past one year. However, Taliban outfit has rejected the claim as baseless.
Karzai Meets With U.S. Envoy About Pakistan Visit
October 22, 2012 Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
Afghan President Hamid Karzai has met in Kabul with U.S. President Barack Obama’s special envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan, Marc Grossman.
Karzai’s office said in a statement that during the October 21 meeting Grossman spoke to Karzai about his recent visit to Pakistan and talks with Pakistani officials about the Afghan peace process and moves to counter terrorism and extremism.
Officials say Taliban and Al-Qaeda militants use Pakistan’s northwest tribal region as a base to prepare for attacks on U.S., Afghan, and allied forces in Afghanistan.
The Afghan presidential statement said the meeting was also attended by Douglas Lute, U.S. deputy national security adviser; U.S. General John Allen, the commander of NATO and U.S. forces in Afghanistan; and James Cunningham, the U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan.
Based on reporting by dpa and RFE/RL
Award-Winning Film Breathes New Life Into Afghan Cinema
RFE/RL By Frud Bezhan October 21, 2012
The new Afghan film "Buzkashi Boys," has earned international critical acclaim for its poignant portrayal of two impoverished boys in Kabul struggling to realize their dreams.
While earning accolades abroad, the film has also made waves in Afghanistan, where it has invigorated the small local film scene as it recovers from decades of conflict.
Afghan cinema had to endure particular hardship under the Taliban regime, when films were outlawed and movie theaters were burned down.
“Buzkashi Boys” is one of the first major films to be set and shot entirely in Kabul.
It is also the first to be produced by the Afghan Film Project, a non-profit production company that aims to rebuild the fledgling Afghan film scene by mentoring and training local filmmakers on major film productions.
During the production of “Buzkashi Boys,” a dozen aspiring Afghan filmmakers, some with technical skills, the majority with only a passion for filmmaking, were tutored through the production and post-production process, with many getting their first opportunity to write, produce, and direct a major film.
'About, By, And For Afghans'
Sam French, an American documentary maker who directed the film and founded the Afghan Film Project, says “Buzkashi Boys” is a testament to the success of those Afghan filmmakers.
He hopes the endeavor will provide Afghan filmmakers with the know-how to produce their own films and spur the growth of the local film sector.
“When I came here I realized there wasn’t really a functioning film industry," he says. "I thought there was a need to build capacity in the industry. We wanted to find a way for [Afghans] to actually work on a production. We worked side by side to make a film that was about Afghans, by Afghans, and for Afghans.”
French was without a job and had barely an understanding of the country when he moved to Kabul in 2008.
He says he expected to be hunkered down in a bunker but soon realized the city was full of inspiring, untold stories.
French maintains that it was a desire to tell these unreported stories that inspired him to start writing the script for "Buzkashi Boys" in 2009.
"When I came [to Afghanistan] I expected a country full of bombs and bullets," he says. "But what I found was a country full of stories and people who welcomed me with open arms. So, I opened a production company to try and tell stories that the media doesn’t tell; [to tell stories] that are beyond the war.”
The result was “Buzkashi Boys,” a 30-minute film shot over 16 days in Kabul in the winter of 2011.
According to French, the majority of the funding for the film came from a $200,000 grant given to his production company by the U.S. State Department. “Buzkashi Boys” is a coming-of-age story about two poor Afghan boys, one an orphaned urchin and the other the defiant son of a blacksmith.
Both boys, who are best friends, fight to realize their common dream of escaping crippling poverty and the streets of Kabul to play buzkashi, the national sport of Afghanistan.
Buzkashi is a brutal version of equestrian polo played with the carcass of a dead goat rather than a ball.
Audiences from around the world have heaped praise on French's heartrending film, which has been shown in cinemas and international film festivals throughout the United States, Europe, and Asia.
It recently won the best drama award at the LA Shorts Fest, which makes the film eligible to be nominated for an Academy Award.
Shooting Beset By Problems
"Buzkashi Boys" is the result of two years of constant setbacks and grueling delays. Filming in Kabul, a heavily-militarized city, posed many challenges, which threatened to derail the film on numerous occasions.
"We had to get permission from the Afghan government, from the local police, and the military to film," says French. "Finding the crew also took a long time. We were also battling weather the whole time. It would snow one day and then the next day it would be bright and sunny so continuity was a big issue. Logistically, it was also a challenge."Since the ousting of the Taliban in 2001, the Afghan film industry has experienced a quiet resurgence.
In the past decade, the success of Afghan films such as "Osama" and "Kandahar" have fuelled huge interest in filmmaking.
But films of such caliber have been in short supply. Even before the arrival of war in Afghanistan some three decades ago, the film scene was small, with only a few movies being made each year.
Most of the films Afghans watched were from Bollywood or the Soviet Union.
In French's opinion, imported foreign films have had an important influence on the current movie scene, where many local filmmakers produce copycat versions of popular action films from India and Pakistan.
According to the American filmmaker, who is writing the script for a new political thriller set in Kabul, a "homegrown-generated" Afghan film sector has yet to become firmly established, but the ingredients for it to succeed are there provided that proper resources are allocated to the industry.
“[Afghan] culture is steeped in poetry and stories," he says. "There is [a] hunger to tell stories. But the problem is the lack of capacity, the lack of skills, [the] lack of resources, and the lack of equipment. [The Afghan film industry] is still a very nascent industry; it’s still fledgling. The filmmakers here need support.”
Feature: Poor Afghans farm hashish as alternative to poppy
KABUL, Oct. 22 (Xinhua) -- "I am hopeful to harvest some 100 kg hashish from this field and that will help me to survive the harsh winter," a farmer in northern Baghlan province who introduced himself as Awaz Mohammad murmured while walking on his small hash farm.
Carrying an assault rifle AK-47, the bearded man defended farming the contraband, saying since the government does not allow them to plant poppy, some of the villagers adopted hashish as an alternative to earn money.
Interestingly the hashish farms are located along a busy road linking Andarab district to the provincial capital Pul-e-Khumri city and all those including police personnel could easily see the hashish farms when driving.
Afghan government with the support of the international community has been fighting hard to eliminate poppy. However, Afghanistan, according to United Nations Office on Drug and Crime (UNODC) has topped poppy producing nations.
According to the report released in October 2011, the potential opium production in 2011 was estimated at 5,800 metric tons, a 61 percent increase compared with 2010 when nearly 50 percent of the illegal product affected by diseases.
With government's hectic campaign against illicit, the poppy growing farmers have abandoned poppy cultivation in peaceful areas. Nonetheless, some farmers availing fragile security, corruption and allegedly with police connivance resorted to hashish, an easily profitable but illegal crop in Afghanistan.
"People with luxury vehicles come to our doorstep, pay cash and take our hashish out of the district," Mohammad said.
Justifying his act, Mohammad went on to say that 7 kg wheat costs 150 Afghanis while the price of 1 kg hashish is between 3, 000 Afghanis to 4,000 Afghanis (around 70 to 80 U.S. dollars) at door step.
"I am a poor man and have no permanent job and no regular income. In the past I used to grow poppy but now hashish," Mohammad added, saying the poor and jobless people have no choice but to take maximum advantage from the situation to earn as much as possible.
Afghan government in 2010 had announced 20 out of the country's 34 provinces as poppy-free. According to officials, the opium poppy is largely grown in the southern region where security is poor and Taliban militants are active.
Helmand and the neighboring Kandahar, the former stronghold of Taliban fighters where the security problems are prevalent, according to UNODC report, are the major drug producing provinces in Afghanistan.
However, according to the report, the number of poppy-free provinces decreased from 20 in 2010 to 17 in 2011 out of the country's 34 provinces as Baghlan and Faryab provinces in the northern region and Kapisa province in the eastern region have lost the poppy-free status and resumed poppy cultivation.
Parallel to unchecked poppy products in Afghanistan the drug addicted number has also gone up and more than 1 million Afghans, according to officials, are addicts in the country.
Like Awaz Mohammad, another farmer Abdul Raziq is also looking forward to reaping good profit from his small hashish farm this year.
"I am hopeful to harvest at least 50 kg hashish and earn some 150,000 Afghanis (some 3000 U.S. dollars) this year."
However, officials describe hashish plantation as an isolated case, saying the government would continue to fight against all kinds of narcotics tooth and nail.
Feature: 1st football national league brings fun to war-weary Afghans
By Farid Behbud and Chen Xin
KABUL, Oct. 22 (Xinhua) -- "It is a great day. Millions of my war-weary people have fun today and this is all thanks to football, " Hamid Jazemi, a member of the champion Afghan football team, said over the weekend.
Afghanistan's first one-month long professional football league ended on Friday after the western team Toofan Harirod won over northern team Simorgh Alborz with 2-1 in their final match.
"Toofan means typhoon or storm and Harirod is an Afghan river in west. I have never thought that one day I could be part of Toofan Harirod," Jazemi told Xinhua in an interview after the match.
Jazemi said that he was surprised that football could bring so much happiness and fun to sport lovers in his war-torn country.
The team of Jazemi won the championship match held in a newly- build Afghanistan Football Federation (AFF) Stadium in Kabul.
Afghanistan Premier League, the country's first professional football league, was announced in July by AFF with an objective of helping bring peace to the country.
"Holding this league is a great achievement for Afghanistan's football. It is the first national championship in the history of sport in the country. It is an important step in sports and would further promote football in the country," said AFF President Keramuddin Karim.
The AFF was founded in 1922, and has been a member of FIFA since 1948 and the Asian Football Confederation since 1954. It has become much more active since the fall of the Taliban in late 2001.
The championship consisted of eight teams from across the country; the tournament would help choose players for the national team, Karim said.
Jazemi said that it is his utmost desire to be an Afghan football star. "I wish I could be a member of national team one day. This league would help me to do so," he said.
He said that he has played in several provincial football teams in western Herat province.
Since the collapse of Taliban regime, Afghan athletes have already taken part in several competitions at regional and international levels and started bringing medals and honors to the country.
Beijing Olympic medalist Rohullah Nikpa won the only medal in London 2012 Olympic Games for Afghanistan.
The International Olympic Committee (IOC) had suspended the membership of Afghanistan in 1999 due to Taliban's brutal policies that included restrictions on the country's athletes.
The Taliban had outlawed a series of sports activities aside from forcing athletes to grow long beard and wear tall shirts and trousers during matches.
The IOC lifted the suspension in 2002 after the collapse of Taliban regime.
Two Campaigns Skirt Talk of Tough Choices in Afghanistan
New York Times By DAVID E. SANGER and THOM SHANKER October 21, 2012
WASHINGTON - Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. described the Obama administration’s latest war strategy in deliberately stark terms in his debate with Representative Paul D. Ryan: “We are leaving Afghanistan in 2014, period.” Mr. Ryan did not dispute that deadline, but insisted on a little wiggle room, saying that Mitt Romney would consult with his generals about the timing and resources and conditions on the ground, to avoid imperiling America’s gains in a war that began in 2001.
Remarkably, that exchange 11 days ago may have been the most substantive discussion all campaign season about how to manage the longest-running conflict in American history. It was not an argument over what America’s goals should be, but how fast to get out.
Yet for either President Obama or Mr. Romney, finding a satisfactory end to the war in Afghanistan and maintaining American influence in the continuing covert battle in Pakistan will be a far greater challenge than simply deciding whether to turn out the lights, or dim them, on the war effort after 2014. Managing the conflict while America heads for the exits will require the next president to confront a series of difficult choices, some of which may finally surface Monday night at the third and final presidential debate, when Afghanistan will be one of five subjects the two candidates discuss.
Even after more than a decade of conflict, the decisions that will be required will be painful: Will the United States keep training the Afghan Army, even if “green- on-blue” attacks — Afghan troops turning on their trainers — keep taking a deadly toll? Will the next president work through the increasingly hostile Afghan president, Hamid Karzai, or work around him, since he is supposed to leave office around the time that American troops depart? Will he keep trying to negotiate with the Taliban, or exercise influence by keeping an “enduring presence” of 10,000 to 15,000 troops inside Afghanistan?
Even if the next president successfully negotiates that long-term American presence in Afghanistan — a part of the administration’s plan that was never acknowledged by Mr. Biden in the debate — will it prove long enough to keep the Taliban from retaking strategic cities? Will it sustain attacks inside Pakistan against insurgents, and, if necessary, enable the United States to respond quickly enough if Pakistan’s fast-expanding nuclear arsenal appears in jeopardy of falling into the hands of extremists?
Underlying all these questions is a more fundamental one: Was Mr. Obama’s troop increase, which officially came to an end last month, worth the cost in American blood and treasure? Mr. Obama has avoided that discussion throughout the campaign. When the so-called surge of troops ended, returning the American force level to its pre-increase total of 68,000, he never acknowledged the moment, perhaps to avoid reminding Americans that so many American troops remained, or to avoid reminding the Taliban that even those troops will soon be gone.
For his part, Mr. Romney has rarely delved into the question of how he would handle the war differently. In January, trying to appeal to his conservative base, he declared, “We should not negotiate with the Taliban, we should defeat the Taliban,” adding that his strategy would amount to, “We go anywhere they are, and we kill them.” After aides warned him that sounded like a prescription for endless war, he has not repeated that view since.
The reality facing the next president is a fairly grim one. Officials say that the next occupant of the Oval Office will have to confront the fact that as Americans and their allies pull out, the Taliban will regain control over territory American troops fought and died to secure.
“When you look at the map in two years, the Taliban are going to be controlling big, rural swaths of the south,” one senior administration official said. “And that’s something no one wants to talk about very much.”
Perhaps the absence of any sustained discussion in the campaign should be of little surprise: Mr. Obama is haunted by seemingly reasonable assumptions made in 2009 about how the troop increase would turn out, almost all of which turned out to be off the mark. And Mr. Romney sooner or later will have to decide whether his call for a restoration of American leadership, which he talks about almost daily at campaign stops, includes extending a war that has grown deeply unpopular, even among Republicans.
The most immediate issue facing the next president is how to ensure that Afghanistan’s major cities remain in Afghanistan’s control. For Mr. Obama, it is not a new problem.
When the president was first assessing the Afghan and Pakistan strategy in 2009, intelligence reports circulating in the White House and the Pentagon reported that Taliban fighters were advancing on Kandahar, Afghanistan’s second-largest city and the Taliban’s spiritual home. Other insurgent units were moving into position to encircle the capital, Kabul. Members of Mr. Obama’s national security team saw a possible disaster looming early in his presidency, one that to his older aides was reminiscent of the scenes of Americans fleeing Saigon, when Mr. Obama was still a teenager in Hawaii.
At the time, the administration dismissed the threat. But securing the Karzai government — even though it had just won re-election in a contest that involved significant fraud — helped drive Mr. Obama’s decision to commit more than 30,000 extra troops to Afghanistan, over the reservations of Mr. Biden and others.
Administration officials are finally beginning to acknowledge publicly how dire the situation actually was in 2009. “Afghanistan faced the real prospect that the Taliban would take over large parts of the country,” Secretary of Defense Leon E. Panetta said recently, echoing more specific assessments by lower-level officials who declined to be named. “I think there was a real risk that the mission in Afghanistan might very well fail.”
There is no question that the troop increase blunted Taliban offensives, forcing the insurgents to retreat from critical population centers across Kandahar and Helmand Provinces. Once they retreated, Afghan forces were able to send troops into these areas and establish security. And the security ring around Kabul has been extended.
The military, eager to provide metrics to prove what it accomplished, notes major improvements in civilian life. Before the troop increase, 7.1 million Afghan children were in school, including 2.7 million girls. Now the figure is 8.2 million children, including 3.1 million girls. The Pentagon argues that 80 percent of the Afghan population now lives in comparative safety, in places where only 20 percent of the attacks initiated by insurgents occur. Today the fear is a bit different: that the tenuous gains made by the troop increase will erode.
“We wanted to wrest back control of the south from the Taliban — that was their psychological birthplace and real center of gravity,” said Brig. Gen. Gordon B. Davis, who spent years in Kabul and now oversees the teaching of Afghanistan’s lessons at the Army’s main school for young officers, at Fort Leavenworth. But when asked to assess whether the effort was worth the cost, General Davis chose his words carefully, as do his colleagues. “I think so, to date,” he said. “We’ll really have to wait and see until next year to see just how successful, how enduring, it is.”
General Davis’s question about “endurance” is the one likely to dominate Situation Room debates about Afghanistan over the next year. The 353,000 Afghan security forces trained by the United States and its NATO allies may not be able to hold the rural territory, despite Mr. Obama’s instructions in 2009 that the military should not seize any territory that it could not reliably transfer to the Afghans.
If the Taliban start moving toward the cities, would American forces re-enter the conflict? Mr. Biden seemed to say no at the vice presidential debate. White House officials say only if Kabul is threatened would the United States intervene beyond the planned mission to train Afghan forces and go after high-value terrorist targets. Mr. Romney and Mr. Ryan insist they will make sure hard-fought gains are not lost, but they do not say what they are prepared to do to prevent that.
Nor has any candidate talked about how to deal with Mr. Karzai, whose promises of ending a legacy of corruption and ineptitude have gone unfulfilled. Indeed, as the troop increase ended, officials in Washington were angered to hear Mr. Karzai publicly denounce the American-led war effort. Those criticisms came as the Pentagon tallied the 2,000th American death of the war.
Then there is Pakistan. Even the biggest enthusiasts of the troop increase — those in the military and the White House who maintain the Taliban have been rolled back — concede that Pakistan was a place where almost nothing worked. “Offering them a new, steady source of aid doesn’t give us much leverage,” one White House official noted in a recent interview, “and threatening to cut off aid doesn’t give us much, either.”
A senior military official said that before the troop increase there were roughly 2,000 insurgents moving regularly across the mountainous border between Afghanistan and Pakistan. And after the increase was over, he said, there are still about 2,000.
The low was hit in 2011, after a series of events that angered both sides: the killing of two Pakistani assailants by a C.I.A. security officer, the raid on Osama bin Laden’s lair in Abbottabad that sparked outrage over the violation of Pakistani sovereignty, and the American airstrike on a Pakistani border outpost that killed 24 soldiers.
Lurking just beyond the tensions over counterterrorism is another problem that the administration has steadfastly refused to discuss in public: the rapid expansion of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal. The growth has largely come in the form of new, smaller, more mobile weapons, which many fear would be easier to steal. And attacks on Pakistani bases by the Pakistani Taliban, including a series in recent months at sites where nuclear weapons are believed to have been stored, has only driven the anxiety higher.
American officials now talk broadly of a new awareness among Pakistanis of the threat posed to their nation by militancy, and they have heard promises by the government of a military initiative this coming winter — but they predicted the same thing at the beginning of the American troop increase.
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