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The showdown between Karzai and the Pashtun south is a game of egos, basically who blinks first. The problem of egoism is that it brings the egoism in others so now both sides are stuck behind their egos waiting and hoping and trying everything to break the other but nothing works, its as if there is some force that has put them in the same cage to either fight to the death or reconcile. Even the American interference is just a side thing.