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Afghan suicide attack kills three after Panetta visit
KANDAHAR, Afghanistan (AFP) - A suicide car bomber attacked a NATO base in southern Afghanistan just hours after a visit by the US defence secretary on Thursday, killing an American soldier and two civilians.
The death of the US soldier and the wounding of three others in the blast was announced by Pentagon chief Leon Panetta at a press conference in Kabul with Afghan President Hamid Karzai.
Seventeen Afghan civilians and one Afghan army soldier were also injured as the bomber detonated his vehicle near the huge International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) airbase in Kandahar city in southern Afghanistan, police said.
Taliban insurgents claimed responsibility for the attack in a text message to AFP.
"The suicide bomber detonated his car as an ISAF convoy was entering the Kandahar airfield," Kandahar provincial police chief General Abdul Razeq told AFP.
US officials said the car struck a heavily-armoured American vehicle but insisted there was no indication that the attack was connected with Panetta's trip.
The Taliban's initial claim made no mention of Panetta, but it was followed by a second text linking the attack to the Pentagon chief's visit.
Panetta played down the incident and struck an upbeat note, saying Afghan forces would soon be ready to take over security for the whole of the country, paving the way for the departure of NATO-led troops in two years.
The former CIA director dismissed the bombing as a desperate tactic by the insurgents who he said were frustrated at the growing strength of Afghan forces.
"This is what they resort to in order to try to continue to try to stimulate chaos in this country. They will not be successful at doing that," he said.
Reporters travelling with Panetta were earlier briefed by senior officers at the base who told them security was steadily improving in the Kandahar region and that the Taliban had been seriously weakened.
The head of NATO-led forces in the area, US Major General Robert Abrams, said the Taliban's capabilities were now "pretty limited".
But he said ISAF had detected "numerous" plots to attack Kandahar airfield that had been disrupted. More than 14,000 US troops are stationed at the base.
During a visit by Panetta to Camp Bastion in neighbouring Helmand province in March, an Afghan died after hijacking a truck and trying to ram it into US Marines waiting to greet the Pentagon chief at the airport.
Last week, Taliban suicide attackers struck at a NATO base at Jalalabad airport in eastern Afghanistan, killing five people and wounding several foreign troops in a two-hour battle, officials said.
The latest assaults came as the summer fighting season should be drawing to a close, suggesting the insurgency remains resilient after surviving the biggest onslaught US-led forces will throw against them.
The last of the additional 33,000 reinforcements US President Barack Obama deployed in a troop "surge" nearly three years ago left in September, and the vast majority of the remaining NATO force of more than 100,000 will follow by the end of 2014.
Panetta's trip to Afghanistan, likely his last before he retires, offered a chance to discuss options with commanders as Obama prepares to decide on the pace of a troop drawdown over the next two years and the size of a potential follow-on force after 2014.
Panetta announced that Obama has invited Karzai to travel to Washington to hold talks with the US president on January 7 "to discuss a shared vision of Afghanistan beyond 2014".
US and Afghan officials have started negotiating terms for a smaller US force to remain after 2014 and both Panetta and Karzai voiced optimism that the two sides would clinch an agreement.
Karzai repeated his stance that Kabul could be willing to grant legal immunity to US troops in return for the United States helping arm the Afghan military and turning over control of all detainees held by American forces.
"We know in Afghanistan the question of immunity for US troops is of immense importance for the United States," he told the news conference.
Armed men open fire in western Afghan town, kills, 2 police, wounds 1
HERAT, Afghanistan, Dec. 13 (Xinhua) -- Unknown armed opened fire on a police van in the western Herat city 640 km west of Kabul on Thursday, leaving two police dead and injuring another, police spokesman in the western region Abdul Rauf Ahmadi said.
"Unknown armed men driving a car opened fire on the vehicle of a senior police officer in Herat city in the morning rush hour killing two police constables and wounding another," Ahmadi told Xinhua.
However, the senior police officer escaped unhurt, Ahmadi asserted without giving more details.
The attackers made their good escape, he confirmed.
Taliban militants fighting the government and often target the government interests are yet to comment.
Georgia Vows to Continue Afghan Military Mission
Nino Beradze VOA News December 13, 2012
Georgia’s newly elected government has pledged to continue its long-term military contribution to the international security efforts in Afghanistan after most foreign troops pull out in 2014.
Georgian forces have been key players in NATO efforts in Afghanistan, and Georgia has lost more soldiers in the mission relative to the size of its population than any other participating nation. Since Georgia joined the operation in 2009, 18 Georgian troops have been killed -- seven of them this year.
Georgia now has some 1,570 troops serving in Afghanistan, making the small South Caucasian country of more than 4.5 million people the largest non-NATO contributor to the Afghan mission. Most of the troops are serving in the Afghan province of Helmand with a few dozen deployed to Kabul.
Georgia’s new defense minister, Irakli Alasania, recently visited the Georgian troops in Afghanistan and met with top NATO and Afghan officials. Alasania said Georgia is willing to support Afghan President Hamid Karzai in helping to train Afghan security forces after most international forces leave in 2014.
“Visiting our hero soldiers in Afghanistan is endorsement of their endeavor in ensuring Georgia’s security on one hand, and the global security, on the other,” he told VOA's Georgian Service. “Each of these operations, and our compatibility with NATO partners has a special significance.”
NATO's needs
During his October visit to Georgia’s capital, Tbilisi, NATO’s representative for the Caucasus region, James Appathurai, said Georgian troops will be crucial to NATO’s long-term focus on training Afghan forces.
“We do not want to plan anything without Georgia’s involvement,” he said. “Georgia might be willing to make its contribution to the Afghanistan mission after 2014, and this contribution will be very important.”
Georgia’s interests are both pragmatic and historical.
Despite Russian objections, Georgia has ambitions to become part of the NATO alliance. And Alasania said Georgians, like Afghans, have in the past fought off dominance by the former Soviet Union.
“We also know how difficult it is to be under the Soviet occupation -- Georgians have passed through this as well -- and it all builds up closer ties and makes us sympathetic to Afghan people,” Alasania said.
Still, Georgian officials concede that the Afghan mission does not guarantee admission to NATO.
“Nobody will give us a ticket to enroll NATO,” said Irakli Sesiashvili, who heads Georgia’s defense and security committee in parliament. “We have to get used to this as long as it needs a political decision of 28 countries.”
Georgia benefits
But Georgia analyst Jon Chicky at the National Defense University in Washington says Georgia can reap benefits in the long run.
“By deploying its troops to Afghanistan, Georgia demonstrates that it is a security provider to [the] NATO alliance, willing and able to send its troops into harm's way without the caveats that some of the existing NATO members have, even though their militaries are far more capable than Georgia's,” he said.
Chicky said Georgia’s involvement in Afghanistan will lead to better diplomatic relations with Washington as Georgian troops will help fill a void when U.S. soldiers leave Afghanistan in 2014.
Georgian armed forces will also gain international training on counter-insurgency while learning how to be part of a multinational coalition, Chicky said.
But some Georgian politicians say too much manpower is going to international deployment.
“If the very same political objective of a political elite can be achieved by two soldiers, then the third soldier is excessive,” said former Georgian Defense Minister David Tevzadze.
Georgian officials say the recent death of a 23-year-old corporal in Afghanistan is a grim reminder of the nation’s sacrifice.
“It is very difficult to talk about continuation of the mission and continuation of the policy when we lost another brave soldier a few days ago,” Alasania said recently. “It is a burden and obligation which Georgia has undertaken for ensuring international security.”
Panetta, other U.S. officials in Kabul paint rosy picture of Afghan situation
The Washington Post By Ernesto Londoño Dec 12, 2012
KABUL - With Defense Secretary Leon E. Panetta in Kabul to take stock as the Obama administration weighs how quickly to draw down troops over the next two years, a senior U.S. military commander on Wednesday hailed the progress Afghan security forces have made.
Marine Maj. Gen. Lawrence D. Nicholson, the head of operations for the U.S.-led coalition in Afghanistan, said NATO troops have begun a radical shift in mission: doing the bare minimum to support Afghan troops, who, he said, are starting to operate unilaterally. “We’re now un-partnering from” Afghan forces, Nicholson told reporters Wednesday evening. “We’re at that stage of the fight.”
If the Pentagon is telling the Obama administration the same thing in closed-door briefings, it could give the White House justification to accelerate the departure of the remaining 66,000 U.S. troops here.
The assessment Nicholson offered, however, is far rosier than the one that U.S. officials have provided recently. They have been citing the resilience of the Taliban and the shortcomings of the Afghan government and military.
Just one of 23 Afghan army brigades is able to operate on its own without air or other military support from the United States or NATO, according to a Pentagon report to Congress that was released Monday.
Nicholson said that although U.S. commanders have made “disingenuous” claims in the past about the extent to which Afghans were acting as equal partners in joint missions, officials now see the Afghan army as ready to operate largely on its own, albeit with key logistical and financial support from NATO. The new strategy as the United States tries to transfer greater responsibility to the Afghan government and military is one of “tough love,” Nicholson said.
“We are pushing them to failure,” he said. “We want them to see failure, we want them to smell it, we want them to taste it. We just don’t want them to achieve it.”
Panetta’s trip, likely to be his last official visit to the war zone, will give him a chance to consult with American commanders and Afghan President Hamid Karzai about the future U.S. role here as the decade-long war comes to an end.
“I look forward to a first-hand view,” Panetta told reporters traveling with him. “This will help me as we set the groundwork for the decisions that have to be made by the president with regards to our enduring presence.”
The Obama administration is debating how many service members it should aim to keep in the country after the U.S. combat mission ends at the end of 2014. Once that determination is made in the coming weeks, Panetta said, the White House will decide how quickly it will draw down the remaining forces.
The former CIA director, making his eighth visit to Afghanistan in four years, said he was heartened by what he described as signs of progress.
“It is clear to me that we are today in a far better place than we were four years ago, despite some very real challenges that remain in the region,” said Panetta, who is expected to retire as defense chief in the coming weeks.
Those challenges include endemic corruption, weak governance, insurgent havens in Pakistan and “a resilient Taliban,” he said.
The corruption challenge was underscored by a report released Tuesday by the special inspector general for Afghanistan reconstruction. It noted that devices intended to detect money laundering at Kabul International Airport apparently are not being used. The bulk currency counters, which can record the serial number of bills — and detect whether U.S. aid money is being smuggled out of the country — were not connected to the Internet, or deployed in any other way, the report said.
The inspector general also found that people whom the Afghan government designates as VIPs or VVIPs, short for “very, very important person,” continue to circumvent the cash screening system as they depart the country.
Panetta said violence is starting to ebb after years of escalations, particularly in urban areas.
The Pentagon report released Monday noted a slight uptick in “enemy-initiated attacks” during the reporting period — April 1 through Sept. 30 — compared with the same time frame the previous year. The 1 percent increase, the report said, was influenced by a poor poppy harvesting season, which drove more “low-level insurgents” to the battlefield.
The report noted a sharp increase in attacks in provinces in the west and north, which have traditionally been safer than the south and east. The military said the rise in attacks in those areas comes as insurgents have been pushed out of the Helmand River valley in the south.
The country’s eastern provinces along the Pakistani border remain “volatile,” according to the report, although Panetta said Pakistan has taken encouraging steps in recent months.
“We are more encouraged with the fact that they want to take steps to try to limit the terrorist threat within their own country and across the border,” he said. “As always, actions have to speak louder than words.”
The report to Congress included stark language on Pakistan, saying that its “passive acceptance of insurgent sanctuaries, selectivity in counterinsurgency operations that target only Pakistan militants” and failure to interdict explosives smuggled across the border “continue to undermine security in Afghanistan.”
Adding to the challenges, a smaller number of insurgents are signing up for the Afghan government’s reintegration program, the Pentagon report said. From April to September, 954 insurgents agreed to join the program, which seeks to place militants in alternative employment. More than 1,600 joined during the previous six-month period.
The report said the declining interest in reintegration, which was steepest in the east and south, was the result of insecurity in some areas and the meager financial incentive. Reintegrated militants get $120 a month for three months to aid their transition.
In a break with tradition, Gen. John R. Allen, the top commander of NATO troops in Afghanistan, is not expected to brief reporters traveling with Panetta.
The Marine general, who is expected to leave Kabul early next year, has been embroiled in a scandal involving social interactions between a socialite and senior commanders at U.S. Central Command in Tampa.
The Pentagon’s inspector general is reviewing the propriety of e-mails between Allen and the woman, Jill Kelley, who sparked the probe that led CIA chief David H. Petraeus to acknowledge an extramarital affair and resign.
Afghanistan, Pakistan agree to investigate spy attack
By Jonathon Burch Reuters Middle East – Wed, Dec 12, 2012.
* Afghanistan says attack was planned in Pakistan
* Pakistan denies involvement, says committed to peace
* Talks come amid strained ties between both countries
ANKARA, Dec 12 (Reuters) - Afghanistan and Pakistan agreed on Wednesday to jointly investigate an assassination attempt last week on Afghanistan's spy chief that has heightened tension between the countries after Kabul said the raid was planned in Pakistan.
Leaders of both countries, accompanied by ministers and their army chiefs, met at a trilateral summit hosted by Turkey only days after the head of Afghanistan's intelligence agency was wounded by a suicide bomber in the Afghan capital. "A joint working group comprising relevant agencies of Afghanistan and Pakistan will address the recent attack on the National Security Director of Afghanistan," all three countries said in a statement.
With explosives hidden inside his underwear and posing as a peace messenger, a suicide bomber wounded spy chief Asadullah Khalid last Thursday in a brazen attack that threatened to derail a nascent and already fragile reconciliation process. After the attack, Afghan President Hamid Karzai stopped short of directly blaming his neighbour but said he knew "for a fact" the bomber came from Pakistan and that Kabul would seek "clarification" from Islamabad during the meetings in Turkey. Pakistan had said it would assist in any investigation into the bombing, but had also urged Karzai to provide evidence before "levelling charges", and suggested Kabul look into any lapses in its own security plans that may have facilitated the attack.
While Karzai and his Pakistani counterpart Asif Ali Zardari put up a united front on Wednesday, both leaders were scant on details of their talks over the attack, one of several in recent years in which Kabul alleges Pakistani involvement.
Asked whether he had received the clarification he had wanted before the meeting, Karzai said: "We had very good conversations and we are not going to divulge details." Zardari declined to comment specifically on Karzai's allegations but said: "It is in the interest of Pakistan that
Afghanistan prospers".
Speaking to Reuters after the summit, Pakistani Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar said Karzai had assured the Pakistani side he had not specifically accused Pakistan.
"President Karzai told us that he made no specific remark which was specific to Pakistan ... because it would be obviously quite undeserved if any such remark was made," Khar said. Both countries needed to have systems in place to protect people from such attacks, Khar said, and that there should be "no question of making allegations on anyone".
Ties between Kabul and Islamabad have been strained by cross-border raids by militant groups and accusations that Pakistan's intelligence agency backs Afghan insurgent groups to advance its own interests in the country.
Pakistan denies the accusations.
PRISONER RELEASE
Despite their differences, Pakistan recently has sent strong signals it would back the Afghan government's efforts to draw the Taliban into negotiations after more than a decade of war. Pakistan released 13 mid-level Afghan Taliban officials last month, meeting demands by Kabul, which has repeatedly pushed for access to prominent insurgents.
Officials from both countries have said Pakistan would also consider freeing former Afghan Taliban second-in-command Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar if lower-ranking figures who were released advance the peace process.
Afghan officials believe he may command enough respect to persuade the Taliban to engage in formal talks with Kabul. Foreign Minister Khar said it was too early to start talking about any possible release of Baradar but that Pakistan would continue to release other Taliban prisoners.
(Writing by Jonathon Burch; Editing by Michael Roddy)
Afghan judge Zahorudin recorded on tape 'seeking bribe'
BBC News By Emal Pasarly BBC World Service 12 December 2012
A senior judge in Afghanistan has been secretly recorded demanding money and marriage from a young woman seeking his help in her divorce case.
In the recording the judge can be heard asking for over $2,000 as well as the woman's hand in return for his help.
The judge has strenuously denied the allegations, arguing that he was only "joking" about the marriage proposal.
Correspondents say the case highlights widespread corruption in the Afghan justice system.
The head of Afghanistan's anti-corruption department, Azizullah Ludin, has promised to take action.
"Once we get the evidence, we will investigate this case jointly with the Supreme Court and I will personally involve the chief justice," he told the BBC.
President Karzai, who has repeatedly promised to do more to tackle corruption, has also ordered officials to look into the case.
His spokesman said he had read the BBC story with "great interest" and asked for "a serious investigation".
'Cover you in gold'
The woman seeking the divorce, Dewa, told the BBC that when she attended court in the eastern city of Jalalabad the judge, called Zahorudin, offered to visit her family home to help with the case. Once there he demanded money.
As a radio journalist, Dewa had access to recording equipment which she hid under her robe.
"When the talk turned to paying bribes... I got my recorder and started to record his voice."
The BBC Afghan Service has obtained a copy and verified the recording.
In it the 65-year-old judge can be heard asking for 20,000 Afghanis ($390; £240) for himself and another 100,000 Afghanis ($1,960; £1,215) for the judge presiding over the divorce case.
When Dewa refused the proposal and said she was unable and unwilling to pay, Zahorudin made a different offer, she alleges.
On the recording he can be heard promising to resolve Dewa's financial problems if she agrees to marry him.
"I will pay two million [Afghanis] for you and cover you in gold from your toes to your forehead," he is heard saying.
Dewa's mother was present during the conversation and said that she could not hide her astonishment.
"I was very sad," she said, "telling myself that this man has sons, daughters-in-law and a wife. But this dirty man is now trying to take advantage of our desperate situation," she told the BBC.
When the BBC contacted the judge by telephone, he at first claimed that he did not know Dewa. When confronted with the evidence, he claimed the journalist had cut and pasted his voice using her radio editing skills.
He said that the entire story was a "conspiracy by rival judges and provincial elders" to prevent him from getting a higher ranking position.
As for his marriage proposal Zahorudin claimed he had been talking in jest. "She was saying 'no-one will marry me', so I offered to marry her. I told her this jokingly."
But in the 15-minute recording Zahorudin repeated his proposal of marriage 15 times.
He also boasted how his standing could protect Dewa.
"A court cannot end animosity. But when you marry a strong man, he will put an end to animosity," the judge is heard saying.
"He will say to your current husband... From now on I don't want to see your face, if you do show your face, I will shoot you in the head."
Dewa's family took the tape to the Supreme Court in Kabul, but so far no action has been taken against the judge.
The divorce case itself has remained unresolved.
UN: Over 2 million Afghans at risk this winter
Associated Press By By PATRICK QUINN 12/12/2012
KABUL, Afghanistan - More than 2 million Afghans are at risk from cold, disease and malnutrition this winter as an international appeal for funds to help one of the world's poorest countries has fallen drastically short of its goal, the United Nations and several humanitarian agencies warned on Wednesday.
Only 48 percent of $448 million that has been requested to help 8.8 million Afghans had been pledged by the end of November, according to the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.
Preparations are under way to help Afghans deal with harsh winter conditions, especially 400,000 people who live in some of the most remote mountainous areas of northern and central Afghanistan.
Snow has already covered mountaintops and the first snowfall of the year was forecast for later this week in the Afghan capital, Kabul.
Last year, Afghanistan experienced its coldest winter and heaviest snowfall in more than 15 years.
"People live in remote areas with no access to health facilities," said Mohammad Daim Kakar, director of the Afghan National Disaster Management Authority. "Many people die of pneumonia and measles."
According to the U.N. and other humanitarian agencies working here, 20 of Afghanistan's 34 provinces have high-risk areas where emergency food, fuel and medical supplies are needed.
"I think the events of last year have meant that we need to be prepared and have a response ready," said Mark Bowen, the U.N. humanitarian coordinator for Afghanistan.
Heavy snows and avalanches killed dozens of people in parts of the country last winter, including more than 30 — many of them children — who froze to death in Kabul.
The Afghan capital is home to 55 makeshift camps that house more than 30,000 people — many of them displaced from elsewhere in Afghanistan because of violence.
"If we buy food we will die of the cold. If we don't buy food, we will starve," said Hachilai Khan, a 20-year-old laborer who has made an informal settlement on the outskirts of Kabul his home.
The settlement, made up mainly of Afghan refugees who returned from Pakistan, houses 552 people from 90 families. Most live in mud huts covered with plastic sheeting or tarps. The mud floors are covered with plastic or old carpeting.
To keep warm, residents burn scrap wood and dried animal dung. There is no running water and toilets are trenches dug near the makeshift homes.
"All these residents are vulnerable. They need firewood, clothes, blankets and shelter material," said Rachel Eskrine, who works with the French humanitarian organization Solidarites International.
The needs of these people haven't disappeared, but the money has.
"There is general donor fatigue," said Bowen, the U.N.'s humanitarian coordinator. "And more so, there is also Afghan fatigue."
The Afghan Consolidated Appeal, which was made on behalf of 63 humanitarian agencies for 171 projects around Afghanistan, received just $214 million — about 48 percent of what it required.
Separately, other donors contributed another $270 million for projects outside the appeal, bringing the total humanitarian commitment for Afghanistan to $484 million, or half the $894 million spent in 2011.
News Analysis: Harsh winter adds to Afghans' economic woes
by Farid Behbud and Chen Xin
KABUL, Dec. 13 (Xinhua) -- The worsening economy and the continuing threat by militant groups have dampened the Afghan spirit to fight back and rebuild their country, particularly now that they are experiencing one of their worst winters.
"Another harsh winter is coming and I don't have enough money to buy even firewood after buying foodstuff at skyrocketing prices, " said Matiullah, 35, who, like many Afghans, goes only by one name.
"The free market economy has frustrated the people. It is not working in Afghanistan. The sellers have increased the price of basic items such as firewood and natural gas due to the recent devaluation of Afghanis against foreign currencies. The government has failed to check prices especially during this harsh winter," Matiullah, father of five, said.
The economy of the war-torn country has improved significantly since the fall of Taliban regime in late 2001, mainly as a result of the multi-billion dollars fund donated to the embattled country by the international community.
However, Afghanistan still remains one of the poorest and least developed countries in the world and has remained dependent on foreign aid.
"It is really a burden for all Afghans particularly people living in suburban areas to buy materials for making their houses warm in the harsh winter. At the same time we have to buy foodstuffs and keep some money for medicines and hospital expanses, " Matiullah said, adding that the dusty weather and pollution have caused his children and wife to suffer from respiratory diseases throughout the winter.
"Business is bad. The high dollar is hurting firewood business this year. Winter is the only season for us to sell wood. The costumers frequently come here in the market. They negotiate the price but leave without buying wood or just buying a small amount, " a wood seller, Mohammad Usman, said.
According to the figures released by Da Afghanistan Bank, the Afghan central bank, on Wednesday Dec. 12, one U.S. dollar was traded for 52.15 Afghanis, while one U.S. dollar equaled 48.71 Afghanis in Dec. 12 last year.
The lowest exchange rate for Afghanis since the beginning of the year was about 55.50 late last month.
The price of one metric ton of firewood is about 12,900 Afghanis, or about 247 U.S. dollars, in Kabul markets.
Although Taliban regime had been driven out of power in late 2001 and open fighting is finished, the restoration of a durable peace is still a dream for many Afghans as anti-government militants continue to carry out suicide attacks and roadside bombings that kill innocent civilians.
In Kabul, some 80 percent of the population lives in unplanned settlements where poor sanitation and lack of access to potable water is common and nearly all of the buildings have no central heating system.
Winter temperatures particularly in central and northern parts in Afghanistan could fall to around -26C.
"There is advancement in heating system around the world. We are still using the metallic stoves producing too much smoke. We know that they cause weather pollution and we are losing greeneries by cutting trees but we cannot afford to buy natural gas," Matiullah said.
The price of one kilogram of natural gas is 75 Afghanis against 45 nearly one month ago, he said.
Although there are no official statistics, it is believed that some nine million Afghans live under poverty line and rely on only one U.S. dollar income daily.
On top of this, there has been a 60 percent increase in the prices of food items in Afghanistan since 2007, according to officials.
Afghanistan: An Army Prepares
When US troops leave Afghanistan in 2014, will the country's own forces be able to hold the line against the Taliban?
Aljazeera By filmmaker John D. McHugh People and Power 12 Dec 2012
The US military has an expression – no man gets left behind. But with the withdrawal of coalition combat troops from Afghanistan in 2014 drawing closer, the men of the Afghan National Army (ANA) could be forgiven for feeling that they are indeed being abandoned.
In order to be able to leave and not have Afghanistan collapse immediately on their departure, the Americans announced at the end of 2009 that the size of the ANA would be increased to almost 200,000 soldiers.
A huge recruitment and training drive began, with new military training centres being set up around the country to facilitate the explosion in numbers.
In June 2012, slightly ahead of schedule, the ANA reached its quota. With great fanfare this was announced to the world as a sign that the army was ready to fulfill its obligations in protecting Afghanistan.
But the hard reality is that the ANA still depends on the US-led coalition for logistics, maintenance, intelligence-gathering and analysis, artillery and air support, medical evacuation (Medevac) and much, much more.
In fact, talk to any coalition troops on the ground and they will tell you the Afghans can fight, but only after they have been fed, clothed, armed and delivered to the battlefield by NATO.
Chief Warrant Officer Klaus Augustinus is a Danish mentor/advisor to the ANA and is on his third tour in Afghanistan. He openly admits that he was unimpressed with the ANA in the past, but now he feels they are making real progress. However, he says, it is the insistence on viewing the ANA through the prism of a Western army that leads to many problems.
“Always keep in mind that the Afghan way is the right way,” Klaus says. “We’re not going to do it any faster than they can cope with it. Otherwise we’re going to lose.”
Desertion
There is no doubt that this huge new army is plagued with problems, but by far the biggest is the sheer turnover of men - currently running at about 30 per cent a year. In other words, the ANA has to find replacements for around 60,000 men every year.
There are many reasons for this attrition. The casualty rate is high, with more than 850 soldiers confirmed killed in 2012 alone, and a great many more wounded. As the ANA takes over the lead role in providing security throughout Afghanistan in 2013, both figures are expected to increase dramatically.
Part of this will doubtless be due to more fighting, but only barely adequate medical support and the likely withdrawal of full airborne Medevac services will not help either.
Currently the ANA relies on the coalition helicopters to take its wounded to hospital quickly. If not available, the ANA will have to use ground transportation to move badly injured men, increasing the time it takes to get them to a place of proper care and significantly reducing survival rates.
Failure to re-enlist is also a big problem. Right now about one-quarter of all recruits decline to sign up for a further tour of duty contract after their initial three-year commitment is completed.
Then there is desertion – a concern to all army commanders of a volunteer army during a war, but something to which the ANA currently seems especially vulnerable. The Afghan defence ministry admits to losing between 7-10 per cent of its troops every year in this way.
When we spoke to General Karimi, the ANA chief of staff, he told us that desertion is much reduced and that measures are in place to reduce it further. That may be true, but no one knows exactly what will happen when the ANA begins bearing the brunt of the fight against the Taliban in a little over a year’s time.
Taliban intimidation and threats
So why are desertion rates so high? We managed to find some deserters (it is not hard to track them down) and they cited three main reasons: corruption and abuse of power by officers, lack of care for troops and probably most significantly, Taliban intimidation and threats.
Naim was in the ANA for two-and-a-half years. His family had not wanted him to join the military, but they were poor, and so in order to help out he signed up. He says he actually enjoyed his time in the army and he saw a lot of action in the turbulent east of the country. But one day he was wounded in a firefight, shot in the knee, and everything changed. He says it was an American soldier who rushed to his aid, and gave him immediate treatment. Within 10 minutes he was on a US Medevac helicopter, and spent the next month being treated by US medical staff – for which he is grateful.
But from the time he was injured, he says, he was abandoned by his own army. No one, not even his platoon NCOs (non-commissioned officers) or commander, came to check on him, to see how he was doing or to ask whether he was receiving appropriate care. Worse still, nobody from the ANA bothered to tell his family where he was.
After a month, he was transferred to another facility and was able to call home. But by this time, having repeatedly asked for information on their missing son, his parents had been told that he was dead and had held funeral rites. Though delighted and relieved to hear he was safe, they were understandably furious about ANA’s callous disregard. When Naim was released from hospital two months later, his father forbade him from returning to his unit. It is a story in line with an often-heard complaint from former recruits, who say the value that the coalition armies place on the health and general wellbeing of their troops is rarely, if ever, replicated in the Afghan force.
But in truth, Taliban threats against individual ANA soldiers - and more insidiously against their families - are probably a much bigger cause for desertion than their own side’s institutional indifference. We spoke to one deserter, identified in our film as ‘Amir’, who had gone absent from his unit only a few weeks earlier. He told us that the Taliban had visited his family home several times and told them that if he did not leave the army, they would cut off his head. When that did not work, they extended the threat to the whole family and he had no choice but to do as they ordered. He is still furious about it, but said he had to put his relatives first.
'Green on blue'
Of course, it is not the only way the Taliban have sought to disrupt the buildup of the ANA. It is now generally accepted that in the rush to accrue the huge numbers needed, the ANA was far from effective in vetting volunteers – and that is a failing that the insurgents have done their best to exploit.
Although it is by no means the only cause, it may well have contributed to a rise in so-called 'green on blue' attacks over the last 12 months. So far, more than 50 coalition soldiers have been killed in 2012 in these insider incidents, when a member of the Afghan security forces, or an infiltrator dressed in a uniform, turns his weapon on his unsuspecting Western allies. The problem is, it is something that is almost impossible for coalition troops to guard against when working alongside Afghans, and worse, every safeguard that is put in place erodes trust between the two groups.
Of course, the perception in the West that the Taliban is behind all of these attacks is somewhat misplaced. Insurgents routinely claim each and every 'green on blue' attack as a planned operation, but the reality is that many are the result of a real or perceived slight, or an argument that just went too far. After extensive questioning of the attackers (or at least those that are not gunned down immediately) the Afghan authorities say approximately 25 percent of the perpetrators have provable links to the Taliban, but the rest of the incidents are down to other factors.
Whether this is true or not, the fact that some attacks are orchestrated by the Taliban is enough to add to the general Western clamour to get out of an ungrateful Afghanistan as soon as possible – which means they have fulfilled their purpose.
Equipment
There is no doubt that this huge new army is plagued with problems, but by far the biggest is the sheer turnover of men - currently running at about 30 per cent a year. In other words, the ANA has to find replacements for around 60,000 men every year.
There are many reasons for this attrition. The casualty rate is high, with more than 850 soldiers confirmed killed in 2012 alone, and a great many more wounded. As the ANA takes over the lead role in providing security throughout Afghanistan in 2013, both figures are expected to increase dramatically.
Part of this will doubtless be due to more fighting, but only barely adequate medical support and the likely withdrawal of full airborne Medevac services will not help either.
Currently the ANA relies on the coalition helicopters to take its wounded to hospital quickly. If not available, the ANA will have to use ground transportation to move badly injured men, increasing the time it takes to get them to a place of proper care and significantly reducing survival rates.
Failure to re-enlist is also a big problem. Right now about one-quarter of all recruits decline to sign up for a further tour of duty contract after their initial three-year commitment is completed.
Then there is desertion – a concern to all army commanders of a volunteer army during a war, but something to which the ANA currently seems especially vulnerable. The Afghan defence ministry admits to losing between 7-10 per cent of its troops every year in this way.
When we spoke to General Karimi, the ANA chief of staff, he told us that desertion is much reduced and that measures are in place to reduce it further. That may be true, but no one knows exactly what will happen when the ANA begins bearing the brunt of the fight against the Taliban in a little over a year’s time.
Taliban intimidation and threats
So why are desertion rates so high? We managed to find some deserters (it is not hard to track them down) and they cited three main reasons: corruption and abuse of power by officers, lack of care for troops and probably most significantly, Taliban intimidation and threats.
Naim was in the ANA for two-and-a-half years. His family had not wanted him to join the military, but they were poor, and so in order to help out he signed up. He says he actually enjoyed his time in the army and he saw a lot of action in the turbulent east of the country. But one day he was wounded in a firefight, shot in the knee, and everything changed. He says it was an American soldier who rushed to his aid, and gave him immediate treatment. Within 10 minutes he was on a US Medevac helicopter, and spent the next month being treated by US medical staff – for which he is grateful.
But from the time he was injured, he says, he was abandoned by his own army. No one, not even his platoon NCOs (non-commissioned officers) or commander, came to check on him, to see how he was doing or to ask whether he was receiving appropriate care. Worse still, nobody from the ANA bothered to tell his family where he was.
After a month, he was transferred to another facility and was able to call home. But by this time, having repeatedly asked for information on their missing son, his parents had been told that he was dead and had held funeral rites. Though delighted and relieved to hear he was safe, they were understandably furious about ANA’s callous disregard. When Naim was released from hospital two months later, his father forbade him from returning to his unit. It is a story in line with an often-heard complaint from former recruits, who say the value that the coalition armies place on the health and general wellbeing of their troops is rarely, if ever, replicated in the Afghan force.
But in truth, Taliban threats against individual ANA soldiers - and more insidiously against their families - are probably a much bigger cause for desertion than their own side’s institutional indifference. We spoke to one deserter, identified in our film as ‘Amir’, who had gone absent from his unit only a few weeks earlier. He told us that the Taliban had visited his family home several times and told them that if he did not leave the army, they would cut off his head. When that did not work, they extended the threat to the whole family and he had no choice but to do as they ordered. He is still furious about it, but said he had to put his relatives first.
'Green on blue'
Of course, it is not the only way the Taliban have sought to disrupt the buildup of the ANA. It is now generally accepted that in the rush to accrue the huge numbers needed, the ANA was far from effective in vetting volunteers – and that is a failing that the insurgents have done their best to exploit.
Although it is by no means the only cause, it may well have contributed to a rise in so-called 'green on blue' attacks over the last 12 months. So far, more than 50 coalition soldiers have been killed in 2012 in these insider incidents, when a member of the Afghan security forces, or an infiltrator dressed in a uniform, turns his weapon on his unsuspecting Western allies. The problem is, it is something that is almost impossible for coalition troops to guard against when working alongside Afghans, and worse, every safeguard that is put in place erodes trust between the two groups.
Of course, the perception in the West that the Taliban is behind all of these attacks is somewhat misplaced. Insurgents routinely claim each and every 'green on blue' attack as a planned operation, but the reality is that many are the result of a real or perceived slight, or an argument that just went too far. After extensive questioning of the attackers (or at least those that are not gunned down immediately) the Afghan authorities say approximately 25 percent of the perpetrators have provable links to the Taliban, but the rest of the incidents are down to other factors.
Whether this is true or not, the fact that some attacks are orchestrated by the Taliban is enough to add to the general Western clamour to get out of an ungrateful Afghanistan as soon as possible – which means they have fulfilled their purpose.
Equipment
In Chicago in early 2012, Barack Obama, the US president, described the plans to withdraw from Afghanistan as “irreversible”.
But the fortunes of the ANA are very much reversible, and if the army collapses, or fractures along ethnic lines, Afghanistan’s last line of defence will crumble and chaos will engulf the country once again.
From what we witnessed in the making of this film, it is hard to see how the Afghan army, however dedicated, can achieve what the far greater resourced “Coalition of the Willing” has failed to do over the past 11 years.
And yet, despite this, morale among ANA troops - or at least among many of those we spoke to - is higher than it might be expected to be.
Although they have been playing a support role in the coalition’s fight against the Taliban up until now, Afghan units have had their successes and on occasion ANA troops have displayed notable courage and determination in the field. This kind of commitment may not be enough to prevail against the Taliban in any long drawn-out fight, but once US troops leave and the dynamics of the war change (as they must), it may just be sufficient to hold the line for a time, and allow Afghanistan to find a way to peace through other means.
Obama must seize moment for Taliban talks
FINANCIAL TIMES ‘A’LIST By Ahmed Rashid December 13 2012
As the fighting season winds down in Afghanistan for the winter months, the four major players in the Afghan imbroglio – the US, Pakistan, the Afghan government and the Taliban – are involved in a complex game of political and military manoeuvring ahead of what is expected to be a decisive round of peace talks in the spring.
With the withdrawal of US troops approaching and the Afghan President Hamid Karzai’s tenure nearing an end, for once all all four parties appear to have an interest in talks.
Even while waiting for a new Secretary of State to be appointed, US diplomats have been visiting the region, talking to allies and urging them to try and bring the Taliban back to peace talks in Qatar that were suspended by the Taliban last March.
Those talks are critical because they hold out the promise of a Taliban front office in Qatar and the possibility that the US could free five senior Taliban commanders from Guantanamo Bay a confidence building measure. The Taliban have insisted on talking first to the Americans before they hold any dialogue with the Kabul regime.
A game changer in recent months is the Pakistan military’s surprising shift of attitude. It has freed Taliban prisoners it has been holding. It has reportedly now told the Taliban and Kabul that it will actively help the process of reconciliation and has been urging both parties to start talking to one another.
The army’s change of heart is premised on the hope that reconciliation between the Afghan Taliban, the Americans and the Kabul regime will lead to a reduction in the violence being perpetrated by the Pakistani Taliban in north west Pakistan.
Taliban commanders and fighters have had a sanctuary in Pakistan since 2002 and have been allowed to raise recruits, funds and logistics through Pakistani allies. But now the Pakistani army and its Interservices Intelligence (ISI) are faced with crippling violence at home that has claimed several thousand lives this year. The government and the army are finding it difficult to cope with two insurgencies, mayhem in Karachi, a moribund economy and a political crisis with elections to be held next May.
However even Pakistan cannot force the Taliban to the table, nor can it change their insistence on wanting to talk to the Americans first. Thus for Islamabad also, restarting the Qatar talks is vitally important if its own initiative of reconciliation is to succeed.
For the Afghan government, which in 2014 faces a withdrawal of US and NATO forces and presidential elections, it is paramount to achieve a ceasefire with the Taliban before that date. A war with the Taliban absent NATO support would overburden the fledgling Afghan army and put the survival of the government at risk.
Thus Afghanistan’s High Peace Council, which is tasked with negotiating with the Taliban, has met several times with Pakistan army chief General Ashfaq Kiyani in order to work out a common road map that both can pursue to bring the Taliban to the table. The Council also works closely with the Americans.
In mid-November Pakistan freed nine Taliban officials it had been holding, releasing them to the Afghan High Peace Council saying it would soon free more Taliban prisoners. The ISI is holding at least 100 Taliban leaders and foot soldiers but is expected to eventually free them all.
Pakistan, Afghanistan and the US are already working closely together through meetings of what is called the core group. However now Pakistan and Afghanistan want to see a much clearer American indication of where the talks should lead before they offer any more concessions to the Taliban.
The key question in everyone’s mind in the region is whether in his second term President Barack Obama will get serious about promoting a political settlement in Afghanistan.
Although he authorised a political process in his first term he never really gave it presidential support. The key question now is who becomes Secretary of State and who is appointed to lead a new team that will deal with AfPak talks and peace making. Most officials in the region are rooting for Senator John Kerry as Secretary of State simply because they know him and he knows the region and its myriad of leaders and warlords well.
However the core group still faces an overwhelming problem: none of the players trust each other. US-Pakistan relations have deteriorated over the past two years largely because of Afghanistan. They are only now being mended.
US officials are still deeply sceptical about whether the ISI and the military are genuinely changing policy towards the Taliban.
Mr Karzai has been at odds with the US over a range of issues including whether the US should have a long term presence in Afghanistan, whether it should hand over all Afghan prisoners to Afghan authorities, and how to map out a common process for peace talks and curbing corruption within the government. Mr Karzai still finds it easier to lambast the US in his speeches than to admit to any faults of his own or to improve governance.
The Taliban of course trust nobody. They blame the Americans for the shut down of the Qatar process and now face tumultuous internal disagreements over whether those talks should be revived or not. The Taliban are dependent on the Pakistanis but loathe the ISI for its past micro management of their affairs and they consider Mr Karzai a worthless American puppet.
Time is now of the essence. Any talks will need months, possibly years, but everyone – even the Taliban – would like to see a ceasefire in the war before 2014 so that the Americans can withdraw and a new political process start in Kabul. Mr Karzai cannot be a candidate for presidential elections in 2014, which offers the opportunity for a new and invigorated Afghan leadership, which the Taliban could accept as a negotiating partner.
The Americans in particular need to appoint a heavyweight diplomat to take the AfPak process forward and Mr Obama needs to personally get engaged. NATO countries need to play less of a waiting game and be more proactive in pushing the US to speed up the talks. Above all the Afghans who have battled outsiders and each other for 34 years need to show maturity and seek a peaceful resolution to their wars.
The writer is the author of ‘Pakistan on the Brink – The Future of Pakistan, Afghanistan and the West.’
Pakistan Extends Refugee Status For Afghans
December 13, 2012 Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
Afghan refugees in Pakistan have had their refugee status extended.
The Pakistani government said Afghans' refugee status was set to expire on December 30, but would now be extended by six months.
The government says there are 1.6 million registered and 1 million unregistered Afghans in Pakistan.
Analysts say many Afghan refugees in Pakistan are reluctant to return to Afghanistan, because of fears about violence and the poor economy.
The Pakistani government has said it will not forcibly evict Afghans.
Afghans with refugee status are eligible for government identification cards that can be used to get bank accounts or register for school.
Based on reporting by AP and Nation.com.pk
Young Afghans form new political movement with hopes for the future
Diverse and influential founding members are optimistic they can transcend ethnic divides and build a more stable Afghanistan
Guardian.co.uk By Emma Graham-Harrison Wednesday 12 December 2012
In a country where politics is often seen as a byword for corruption, and which is still dominated by jihadi-era commanders, a small group of influential young Afghans have started a civil and political movement that hopes to transcend old ethnic and sectarian divides.
As Nato troops head home and gloomy predictions about the country's future multiply, the founders of the group argue that Afghanistan's young people have not given up on their country, they are just fed-up with its ruthless, divisive politicians. And as two-thirds of the population is under 30, they potentially have a very large constituency.
"Our strength is that we can mobilise this new generation that no longer feels comfortable with the fragmentations of the past, but is also invested in the future of this country," said Haseeb Humayoon, chief executive of Qara Consulting and a founding member of the group, which has adopted the motto "Our country, our responsibility".
Its name, Afghanistan 1400, looks towards a new century in the Persian calendar, which begins in the year 2020 of the western calendar.
"Ten years is not much in the life of a nation, but we hope we can ensure our political and economic development will be irreversible by then," said Ershad Ahmadi, a senior diplomat and another founding member. He said the party grew out of a concern among his generation that they were just "onlookers" to the country's turmoil.
It brings together men and women from almost all the country's many ethnic groups, and the chair is a woman, a rare example of diversity in a country where ethnic and sectarian divisions are often exploited for political ends, and women are frequently marginalised.
"There are so many ethno-centric people in this society," Ahmadi said. "They are very active on TVs and radios and social networks, and call each other a lot of names. But for some reason they are confused about what to call us, because when they see the diversity in Afghanistan 1400, they are like 'what should we do with these guys, they have everybody around the table'."
The group's 80 founding members are influential as well as diverse, including top civil servants, businessmen, the president's former spokesman, a security expert and one of Kabul's most prominent journalists.
The idea was born, like many political movements, at a local cafe, although it took a core group 12 months of arguing to hammer out a manifesto they could all unite behind.
"It has been a thrilling and exhausting experience. Because the people who have come together are the people who normally wouldn't go easily and associate themselves with a brand," said Humayoon, who after years in business scatters his political discussions with marketing words.
Attempts to set up more progressive parties in Afghanistan have sometimes foundered outside the relatively liberal capital, but the group already has a base in the main regional hubs and founding members such as Abdul Ali Shamsi, a southern businessman, now based in Kandahar, who for years advised the governor of neighbouring Helmand province on how to reach out to the Taliban.
When Kabul-based members failed to show up for meetings, the others teased them with the example of Shamsi, who flew up from the south for all the long discussions.
And they are not sticking to drawing up political manifestos. This April, while still arguing over their founding aims, the group organised an anonymous poster campaign to lionise the commandos, police and soldiers who responded to a complex Taliban attack on the city with giant billboards and 5,000 fly-posters handed out downtown to enthusiastic drivers.
A few months later, when insurgents attacked a popular picnic spot, they joined with other civil society groups to organise a clean-up, and planted flowers where the dead had fallen.
"These efforts have two impacts: one is we stand up against things we believe are wrong, but the other more important factor is we project courage, we enable people to stand up against violence, people who in many ways have been passive because of fears instilled among the population," Shamsi said.
Afghans Urged to Take All Military Tasks Except Aviation
Bloomberg By Gopal Ratnam Dec 12, 2012
Afghan military forces are being pushed to take over all operational tasks except aviation missions by 2015, when most American and allied troops are scheduled to have departed the country, according to a U.S. officer.
“They should be able to do all the tasks except perhaps aviation, close air support, that might be the one outlier we are still going to be involved in,” U.S. Marine Corps Major General Lawrence Nicholson, the deputy chief of staff for operations with the International Security Assistance Force, said today in Kabul. “We have 24 months to get that right.”
Nicholson briefed reporters after U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta arrived to meet with military commanders and Afghan President Hamid Karzai to discuss troop levels after 2014, when President Barack Obama has pledged to remove most of the 66,000 U.S. forces now in the country.
“I look forward to having a firsthand view,” Panetta told reporters accompanying him on the plane to Kabul. “This will help me as we set the groundwork for decisions” to be made by Obama.
U.S. and coalition forces are “not going to be moving troops by helicopters, we are not going to be doing engineering, explosive ordnance disposal, those things are going to be done by them” after 2014, Nicholson said of the Afghan forces.
Nicholson said the coalition forces now are doing less “partnering” with Afghan forces, instead providing aviation and surface fire support, bomb disposal, route clearance and medical evacuation. Troop Numbers
Nicholson declined to say how many troops will be required after 2014. The Los Angeles Times today reported that the administration may retain as few as 6,000 U.S. troops after 2014.
While the U.S. and Afghanistan signed a strategic framework agreement in May that calls for a U.S. troop presence beyond 2014, they are now negotiating a “status of forces agreement” that would resolve issues such as the U.S. insistence on immunity from Afghan legal action against personnel who remain.
A Pentagon report issued Dec. 9 set out a list of challenges facing Afghanistan, including terrorist safe havens in Pakistan.
“The Taliban-led insurgency and its al-Qaeda affiliates still operate from sanctuaries in Pakistan,” according to the report’s executive summary. “The insurgency’s safe havens in Pakistan, the limited institutional capacity of the Afghan government and endemic corruption remain the greatest risks to long-term stability and sustainable security in Afghanistan.”
To contact the reporter on this story: Gopal Ratnam in Kabul at gratnam1@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: John Walcott at jwalcott9@bloomberg.net
Afghanistan's Garmsir is a success for Nato – but its future remains uncertain
Taliban may be biding their time in Garmsir, Helmand province, which has been superficially transformed with Nato cash
Guardian.co.uk By Emma Graham-Harrison Wednesday 12 December 2012
Hazarjoft - The villages and fields of Garmsir lie like a snake across the deserts of southern Afghanistan, the head a cluster of mud houses, irrigation canals and bazaars around the district capital, the body a narrow strip of cotton, opium poppy and wheat twisting down beside the Helmand river towards Pakistan and Iran.
It was mostly Taliban territory until US marines poured hundreds of troops and hundreds of millions of dollars into reclaiming this impoverished corner of an already poor province. Crammed bazaars, reoccupied homes and busy roads are testament to their efforts.
"Compared with two years ago it's night and day," said Captain Devin Blowse, commanding officer of the company of US marines fighting in Garmsir. "Then if you were from here, you either stayed in your compound, left to go to a more stable area, or you worked with the Taliban."
There are probably just a few dozen insurgent fighters left in Garmsir, he added, and the main Nato base where soldiers once lived off ration packs and bunkered down during regular rocket attacks has become a relatively comfortable complex with internet, full-service laundry and two cooked meals a day.
The only deaths on the marines' summer combat tour were at the hands of a rogue police employee who gunned down three men at a gym inside their main base, Forward Operating Base Delhi. Outside, they have barely come under fire.
Afghan security forces, who mostly vanished as violence increased, have returned to take over a string of marine outposts along the 45 miles of river and cotton and poppy fields that make up Garmsir. Civilian officials are in charge of health, education and justice.
As Nato prepares to pull most combat troops out of Afghanistan by the end of 2014, Garmsir could be presented as a model for what it wants to leave behind: violence is sharply down, security forces are actively taking on insurgents, and the government is organising basic services such as schools and clinics.
But the US marines who were the main architects of the current stability are leaving soon, and it is not yet clear whether the patchy branches of the central government and its security forces that are meant to take over are up to the task yet.
The people with perhaps most at stake in Garmsir's future – families who eke out a living from its poppy and cotton – have yet to make up their minds, a reminder of how fragile the changes seem to those living through them. While some have thrown in their lot with the government against the Taliban, officials acknowledge many are staying on the sidelines of a bitter conflict with no clear end.
"They are not opposed to the government but they don't have a good relationship either: they are just farmers, they are waiting to see the result, who is the winner – the government or the Taliban," said the acting Garmsir district governor, Ayoub Omar, in an office decorated with a map of Afghanistan, plastic flowers and several velveteen sofas. "Whoever wins, they will work with him." Few answers
Many resent a government they feel provides little help, and security forces seen as transient at best, predatory outsiders at worst. Dull and dangerous rural backwaters such as Garmsir rarely attract the best civil servants, police and army officers and when it does, it struggles to hold on to them. What little development the area has seen, in the form of new schools and roads, has largely come from foreigners, not the government in Kabul.
A few dozen miles from Omar's office is a village of former nomads, settled on land illegally carved out of the desert and largely ignored by army, police and officials, even though it is exactly the kind of place that could hold the seeds of their undoing.
Sand dunes nudged the outskirts of the settlement, camels grazed on thorny shrubs, and everywhere we received the same neutral stares and polite, shut-down answers. No one had seen the Taliban and security was excellent, although the Afghan army and police had not visited for months.
"I would recognise anyone with a weapon, but I haven't seen anybody," said Maulavi Ghulam Khan, one of the elders of the village, gesturing across the empty space in front of his home. "Can you ask the government to give us identity cards?" he pleaded when the marines asked if they could help. "They say we shouldn't be here even though we pay tax."
Marines suspected Haji Ghaffour had seen the Taliban. His mud and corrugated iron shack, festooned with plastic beads and tinsel and stacked with everything from washing powder to canned food, was one of the few places villagers could spend what little cash they might scratch from their salt-plagued fields. But not in afghanis, the national currency. Ghaffour was away and a son manning the shop demanded payment for chewing gum in Pakistani rupees, cash from across the nearby border where insurgents find sanctuary when not fighting on home turf.
The marines scanned the young man's fingerprints and irises for entry in a biometric database, where they found he was registered under four different names, with possible links to Taliban attacks.
But there was nothing firm enough for an arrest, so he walked away with just a warning. "We're watching you," one marine shouted after him, as he turned his back and rejoined a group of wary friends gathered outside the shop. Rampant corruption
Mistrust has grown from years of watching rampant corruption corrode government and security forces, the cynical manipulation and accidental triggering of ethnic and tribal tensions, and the difficulty of finding decent officials.
Garmsir is no exception, and this autumn the police, the army and the civilian government were all grappling with serious problems of capacity, competence or community relations.
Omar himself is the smart and affable son of an influential local elder who went into politics over his family's objections about the dangers, knows the district intimately and came second nationwide in a national civil service exam for district governors.
But he is officially only deputy to a 26-year old who disappeared to Kabul, embroiled in legal problems related to a team of "private bodyguards" he employed. The missing governor is just the most senior in a group of largely invisible district officials who Afghan and US sources said are keen to cash their pay cheques but unwilling to live in Garmsir.
"Improving governance in Helmand remains a challenge," a US government watchdog said in a recent report that warned the central government was not providing enough support in rural areas. "Corrupt hiring practices have allowed for many incompetent directors to remain in charge of the provincial and district officials."
The Afghan army, normally the most respected arm of government, is at loggerheads with Garmsir's elders because a sergeant attempted to elope with a 15-year-old girl whose father had promised her to a much older man.
Blowse said the incident was a temporary storm that overshadowed the army's impressive competence and independence. But it was a reminder of the language and cultural tensions that can hamper Afghan soldiers.
"They are not too happy about being stationed down here for the most part, and they view these people as inferior to them, culturally speaking," said Captain Andrew Yager, an adviser to Garmsir's commander, Lieutenant colonel Ghulam Mustaba. He praised the army's handling of a case that could easily have sparked violence.
Without doubt the biggest long-term security risk in Garmsir is the police. "I'd say we focus 90% of our effort on the police at this point, because I think the army has gotten to a point where they can sustain themselves, they can operate, they have depth to their leadership," said Blowse.
Just over a year ago, the district commander was taken out by a Taliban bomb, possibly with insider help. After two short-term replacements, a permanent commander arrived with a reputation for graft and within weeks his teenage "teaboy" had shot dead three marines.
That came as insider attacks by Afghan police and soldiers were rising nationwide. This year more than 60 foreigners have been killed by men they were trying to train or support, smashing the trust that is so critical to efforts to build up the Afghan security forces.
Mutual confidence in Garmsir has not been helped by the arrival of the latest district chief with a recoilless rifle, an armour-piercing weapon. The only armoured vehicles in Garmsir are the hulking MRAPs – mine resistant ambush protected trucks – driven by US marines, but the commander shrugged off all marine questions about the weapon's origin or purpose.
Nato and US influence over the police and army is also ebbing as they cut back on generous funds that for years paid for everything from 24-hour electricity to sunshades, in a bid to force an improvement in Afghan logistics systems.
"The last unit that was how they got things done, they were like, 'Hey, we'll give you this, and I need you to do this, this and this for me,'" said Lieutenant David Daugherty, commander of the team advising the police in Garmsir. "When we got here we didn't have the authority or money, or resources to give them anything; all we came with was experience and intangible stuff which wasn't good enough for them, so it was harder to influence them to do things."
The problems of Garmsir are not isolated or local. The police in many areas are corrupt and ineffective – so much so that in a recent poll about half of Afghans said they would be afraid to encounter a policeman. Dozens of district governor posts across the country sit empty. Tactical decision
Even the hard-won security improvements in Garmsir may not be entirely what they seem. There have been huge sacrifices by marines and their Afghan partners that have seriously diminished Taliban influence there, but the insurgent group may also have made a strategic decision to limit fighting in the district to keep up pressure in other areas.
They appear to be using Garmsir as a supply route to more volatile areas such as Sangin, where they initiate more fighting – kinetics in military jargon – said Lieutenant Carter Harris. Some districts in northern Helmand are among the most violent in Afghanistan, accounting for a high proportion of fighting, deaths and injuries nationwide.
"The Taliban seems willing to limit kinetics in Garmsir [because] there are lots of ratlines up north," Harris explained in company headquarters, set up in the shell of an agricultural college built by US engineers several decades ago, when they had more ambitious dreams for Afghanistan.
"The south is desert, so this to all extents and purposes is the border with Pakistan for them. They are able to move men and material north to more kinetic AOs [areas of operation], like Kajaki and Kandahar."
The insurgents may also just have taken a tactical pause to let enemies with more equipment and firepower than the Afghan police and army leave the battlefield.
Where once there were more than 60 marine bases, some with just a handful of men, that formed a chain of security dotted through Garmsir, now there are just two foreign camps, and those will probably be gone within a year as Nato countries rush to get their troops home.
The Taliban already make homemade bombs in sizes that will leave a US vehicle (mine-resistant, ambush-protected) largely unharmed but can rip apart a police ranger. And there are still Taliban threats and assassinations on prominent civilians, bombs in the roads and assaults at night.
Data from the Nato-led coalition shows "enemy-initiated attacks" – the main statistic they use publicly to assess violence – are down from 2011, but still higher than in 2009.
Senior commanders in Kabul last year were still talking about "reversing the momentum of the insurgency". On the ground troops are much more sanguine about what has been bought with foreign lives and money – a chance for the Afghan government, people and security forces to fight the Taliban themselves, without overwhelming odds against them, if they want to.
"They have the ability at this point to choose their future, that has been given to them," said Blowse. "It's their choice from there, but at least they have that choice."
Lawmakers Summon Ministers of Underspent Budgets
TOLOnews.com By Saleha Soadat Wednesday, 12 December 2012
Afghan lawmakers on Wednesday agreed to summon 11 ministers who have not spent more than 50 percent of their ministry's budget to answer before parliament, describing them as 'incompetent'.
The 11 ministries with so-called underspent budgets include, Energy and Water, Education, Counter Narcotics, Economy, Commerce, Defense, Interior, Higher Education, Information and Culture, Urban Development, and Mines and Industries.
"Those who want to summon the incompetent ministers should raise the green card," First Vice Speaker of the Afghan Parliament Abdul Zaher Qadir said, with most lawmakers raising the green in favour of the summons.
MPs voiced anger over the failure to spend the budgets, with one saying they were "playing with Afghanistan's destiny".
"Those ministers are taking the country towards disaster and are thieves. They should not be only summoned but also dismissed," Kandahar MP Mohammad Naim Lalai said.
However, some ministers criticised talk of dismissing the ministers saying that the country's current situation would not allow for a handful of ministers to be removed from their positions.
"Consider the current situation of the country: we have elections and if 15 or 20 ministers are removed together it will be a disaster for the country," Kapisa MP Mohammad Iqbal Safi said.
An MP from western Herat province Qazi Nazir Ahmad Hanafi said that such a decision will go against the Afghan constitution.
"This decision you are making is against the constitution and internal procedures of the parliament," he said.
The MPs also said that some of the ministries have spent their development budgets over their normal budgets which is against the law.
Turkey Pledges Peace Support, Allow Taliban Office in Ankara
TOLOnews.com By Shakeela Ahbrimkhil Wednesday, 12 December 2012
The Government of Turkey has pledged its support for Afghanistan's peace negotiations, saying in a Wednesday meeting with President Hamid Karzai that it is committed to helping the process including hosting a Taliban office in the country.
The opening of a political office for the Taliban in Turkey's capital city of Ankara was the main theme of Karzai's second day in meetings with Pakistani and Turkish leaders.
Afghanistan High Peace Council also threw its support behind the Taliban office in Ankara, and requested the Pakistan government to truly give attention to Afghanistan's demands.
"Pakistanis should know that they can get some issues resolved from the peaceful way rather than war and fighting. Our advice to Pakistan is to use these kinds of meetings and forget about making Afghanistan their colony after the withdrawal of foreign forces from Afghanistan," High Peace Council deputy chair Attaullah Ludin said.
While the details of the discussions between Afghanistan, Pakistan and Turkey in Ankara have not been fully disclosed as yet, it is understood that Karzai gave some evidence and documents to his Pakistani counterpart about Pakistani involvement in the plot to assassinate Afghan spy chief Asadullah Khalid by suicide attack.
Some Afghan lawmakers do not believe that Pakistan will cooperate with the investigation into the attack.
"Repeatedly the President has talked with Pakistan officials, and now President Karzai gave the documents. But they will still not cooperate," Herat MP Ahmad Reza Khoshak Watandost said.
Kabul MP Sayed Hussain Anwari said he did not understand why such discussions were held outside Afghanistan.
"If the government, Taliban and regional countries honestly want to bring peace and secure Afghanistan then negotiations should be inside Afghanistan," he said.
Karzai has presented evidence that allegedly shows the Khalid plot was planned in Pakistan's city of Quetta and the bomber was a Pakistani.
Khalid survived last Thursday's attack in Kabul but sustained some injuries to the lower half of his body. He has been moved abroad to receive treatment.
The Taliban claimed responsibility for the attack but Karzai dismissed their claim saying that the attack was too professional to have been the work of the militant group.
The trilateral meeting is the seventh year the trio have met in Ankara.
Afghan Saffron Tops 16 Nations at World Exhibition
TOLOnews.com By Zabihullah Jhanmal Wednesday, 12 December 2012
Afghanistan's saffron has been awarded first place for quality among 16 countries at the International Saffron Exhibition held in France, officials said Wednesday.
"At the exhibition which was held in France, Afghan saffron got the first position among sixteen saffron producers including Iran," the head of Mahtab Saffron Company Mohammad Ibrahim said.
Afghanistan's climate is suitable for the cultivation of saffron and its quality has long been considered one of the best among all other saffron productions around the world.
According to officials, if good care is taken, the saffron onion in Afghanistan can produce up to 14 leaves, while saffron from other countries can produce up to five leaves in one plant.
Afghanistan's Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock officials said that they are working on finding better international markets for the Afghan saffron.
"Even though saffron production is still in its primary stages and we are promoting it, its harvests have been good. We are also trying to find more international markets for this product," Promotion Department chief at the Afghan Agriculture Ministry Hakam Khan Habibi said.
Saffron has increasingly been touted as a viable alternative to opium production for farmers looking for lucrative returns in Afghanistan, with its high sale price in international markets.
The latest recognition of its quality at the world exhibition is likely to drive demand and prices even higher.
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What a 1970s ‘Lonely Planet’ travel guide said about Afghanistan
By Max Fisher, December 13, 2012 The Washington Post
Afghanistan’s history since 1979, when the Soviet Union invaded to prop up a sympathetic government, has been dark and often violent. The Soviet army’s 1989 withdrawal was followed by a civil war and domination by warlords. That in turn gave rise to the Taliban, which seized power shortly before it was toppled by a U.S. invasion in retaliation for the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.
But, before all that, the country was a remote and poor but not-so-bad place. Attesting to the pre-1979 Afghanistan and how much it has changed is this excerpt from a 1970s Lonely Planet travel book, which described the country as “vastly appealing.” The country’s biggest problems at the time, according to the excerpt unearthed by a Reddit user, were slow travel, “aloof” locals, and “banditry.” Here’s the travel guide’s introduction to Afghanistan:
A vastly appealing country – endless empty deserts, soaring barren mountains, historic old towns and ruins and best of all the aloof and detaches Afghanis. How else can you describe them, they clearly realise that no amount of money or mere material possessions could ever compensate for the unfortunate handicap of not being born in their fine country. Unhappily Afghanistan is one of those countries where the collision between a long established lifestyle and a new influx of tourists has not always been harmonious. It is place where some of the dregs of the overland trip (and there are some) seem to settle. It is also a country to be careful in, banditry still runs in many veins.
Afghanistan analysts have sometimes told me that the country used to be a major world destination for hiking and nature sightseeing, which may explain the “influx of tourists” that the guidebook describes. If you’re looking for more of pre-1979 Afghanistan and its very different, surprisingly Western feel, you can do little better than this great Foreign Policy slideshow, “Once Upon a Time in Afghanistan.”
Peace and Stability in Afghanistan: The Role of Neighbours
Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses By Gurmeet Kanwal December 13, 2012
At the July 2012 Tokyo summit, donor nations pledged USD 16 billion up to 2015 for the socio-economic development of Afghanistan. The 70 nations that participated in the summit sent a strong message to the effect that Afghanistan will not be left to fend for itself after the withdrawal of NATO-ISAF forces. However, strong messages are not enough if these are not followed by strong measures in critical areas.
No plans have yet been made to put in place post–exit arrangements to supplement the capabilities of the Afghan security forces. The Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) are unlikely to be in a position to assume independent responsibility for security by end-2014. The completion of the drawdown will create a security vacuum, particularly in the south-eastern and southern provinces, and the Taliban are likely to fill it. Unless Afghanistan’s key regional neighbours, including India, Iran and Pakistan, contribute meaningfully to the efforts to stabilise the country, instead of pursuing narrow national agendas, Afghanistan may plunge into a civil war. This will reverse the gains made in socio-economic development over the last 11 years.
Capacity of ANSF
The Afghan National Army (ANA) now numbers 195,000 troops and the strength of the Afghan National Police (ANP) has gone up to 149,208. The ANSF (ANA plus ANP) are being increasingly called upon to assume responsibility for security in districts from which the NATO-ISAF troops are gradually withdrawing. While the number of ANSF personnel is growing steadily, they are not yet operationally and logistically ready to assume independent charge of security operations in areas vacated by NATO-ISAF troops.
Besides numbers, ANSF personnel lack the requisite weapons and equipment, and are inadequately trained and motivated – desertions and incidents of fratricide are fairly frequent. The standards of junior leadership – the bedrock of counter-insurgency operations – are far from satisfactory. Also, the ANA lacks critical logistics support such as helicopters and high-mobility vehicles and is completely dependent on the NATO-ISAF logistics and casualty evacuation system.
Though the May 2012 Chicago Summit reaffirmed the commitment of the international community towards a continuing partnership with the government of Afghanistan after 2014 and pledged to continue to provide developmental assistance, it did not address the issue of leaving behind a security vacuum and the role that key regional actors could play. This glaring omission will prove costly in the long term for regional peace and security.
Likely Impact
The NATO-ISAF withdrawal without supplementing the fighting capabilities of the ANSF will lead to an unstable security situation. Some of Afghanistan’s regional neighbours will promote their core national interests and compete for influence by supporting the warring factions. Western and regional players will need to accommodate Pakistan’s core interests in seeking a lasting solution to the Afghan conflict. Instability will lead to a rise in Islamist fundamentalism and create conditions for the al Qaeda to make a comeback.
The NATO-ISAF strategy to “clear-hold-transfer-exit” has only partially succeeded in achieving its political and military goals. The foremost area of concern is the security deficit that is gradually emerging as the process of drawdown of forces is gathering momentum. The security deficit can be filled to a large extent by Afghanistan’s neighbours if they can be persuaded to accept the responsibility, including by contributing troops to a UN-mandated peacekeeping force. However, the Central Asian Republics (CARs), China, India, Iran, Pakistan and Russia have divergent agendas. In particular, India, Iran and Pakistan need to work together to contribute to peace and stability as they are the key players in the region.
Divergent Agendas of the Regional Players
India has historically had friendly ties with Afghanistan and wishes to see a stable government installed in Kabul that does not lean excessively on any neighbour. India had supported the Northern Alliance during its operations against the oppressive Taliban regime. Despite its own economy facing sluggish growth, India has invested heavily in Afghan reconstruction and development. India has contributed USD 1.2 billion so far, and has pledged additional funds to take the total commitment to USD 2 billion. The funds have been spent on road construction and building projects approved by the Afghan government and the local communities. India is also providing training assistance to Afghan administrators, teachers, medical staff and officer cadets, but only within India. Though the Indian private sector has invested only USD 25 million so far, this is set to change as new investments worth USD 10-12 billion are in the pipeline.
India’s sustained help and abiding commitment have not received due recognition. The Government of India does not support the idea of sending troops to Afghanistan at present. However, it would be in India’s interest to do so if invited; an unstable security situation in Afghanistan is not in India’s interest. Under the right conditions – UN flag, viable logistics support – it may be possible to persuade India to send up to one infantry division (15,000 troops) to supplement the ANSF. At the very least, due to the Indian Army’s immense experience in counter-insurgency operations and cultural affinities that make it easier to train new recruits, India could be invited to train ANA personnel in Afghanistan itself. This will lead to larger numbers of ANA personnel being trained simultaneously than is the case at present.
Iran’s wait-and-watch policy, which has been in place since December 2001, is continuing unchanged. Iran is concerned about the flow of fundamentalist terrorism and narcotics from Afghanistan. It also fears the exodus of a large number of refugees if the security situation deteriorates rapidly after the exit of NATO-ISAF troops, even though Iran would be happy to see their backs.
Iran is also under pressure due to US sanctions over its quest to acquire nuclear weapons and fears a joint US-Israel attack on its nuclear installations. Under the circumstances, Iran would not like instability in Afghanistan to add to its strategic challenges and is more likely to cooperate rather than confront the international community in Afghanistan. However, Iran is unlikely to join a UN peacekeeping force and for its part the international community would much rather do without Iranian troops in such a force. Iran could contribute by allowing the use of the road from Chahbahar port to Zaranj to open up a new route for logistics supplies. Such a move will substantially reduce the present dependence on the two land routes that pass through Pakistan’s Quetta and Peshawar. However, this can happen only if the United States mends its fences with Iran.
The Pakistan Army and the ISI are continuing to support militant groups like the Haqqani network that are fighting the NATO-ISAF forces by providing safe haven to them. This is so even as the Pakistan Army itself faces well coordinated attacks by Pakistani Taliban like the TTP and the TNSM from across the border. The continuing stand-off in US-Pakistan relations has led to hardened attitudes on both sides, with the United States continuing with its strategy of trans-border drone strikes to eliminate the al Qaeda leadership and Pakistan refusing to launch operations against the TTP in North Waziristan.
Pakistan still seeks ‘strategic depth’ in Afghanistan and would prefer to have a pliable regime in Kabul when the NATO-ISAF mission ends in 2014. Pakistan does not support the Afghan reconciliation process – unless it is conducted on Pakistan’s terms – since a successful outcome will reduce Pakistan’s role in conflict resolution. Pakistan has failed to appreciate that continuing insurgency in Afghanistan, especially close to its border, will fuel instability in its own northwest and further destabilise a volatile part of the country when its economy is in ruins and the political situation is spiralling out of control. Pakistan seeks to limit India’s influence in Afghanistan and opposes the induction of Indian troops as well as in-situ training. However, the recent improvement in relations with India may lead to Pakistan being willing to discuss the role that India might play in future in contributing to Afghanistan’s socio-economic development.
Russia and the CARs remain key players and have a huge stake in Afghanistan’s future stability. The agreement signed by Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan with the NATO-ISAF forces in June 2012 to permit military hardware being transported out of Afghanistan as part of the draw-down is a major concession and signals their desire to make a meaningful contribution to conflict resolution. Russia signed a similar agreement in early-July 2012. However, Russia and the CARs are unlikely to go so far as to join the fight against the Taliban by contributing troops to a stabilisation force.
Good governance, including a transparent system for the delivery of justice; sustained socio-economic development; and, a secure environment for the first two to flourish, are the three pillars of a successful counter-insurgency campaign. In Afghanistan, the post-ISAF security environment is likely to spin out of control if supplementary security arrangements are not conceived soon and put in place quickly with the help of its neighbours.
www.afghanistannewscenter.com
KANDAHAR, Afghanistan (AFP) - A suicide car bomber attacked a NATO base in southern Afghanistan just hours after a visit by the US defence secretary on Thursday, killing an American soldier and two civilians.
The death of the US soldier and the wounding of three others in the blast was announced by Pentagon chief Leon Panetta at a press conference in Kabul with Afghan President Hamid Karzai.
Seventeen Afghan civilians and one Afghan army soldier were also injured as the bomber detonated his vehicle near the huge International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) airbase in Kandahar city in southern Afghanistan, police said.
Taliban insurgents claimed responsibility for the attack in a text message to AFP.
"The suicide bomber detonated his car as an ISAF convoy was entering the Kandahar airfield," Kandahar provincial police chief General Abdul Razeq told AFP.
US officials said the car struck a heavily-armoured American vehicle but insisted there was no indication that the attack was connected with Panetta's trip.
The Taliban's initial claim made no mention of Panetta, but it was followed by a second text linking the attack to the Pentagon chief's visit.
Panetta played down the incident and struck an upbeat note, saying Afghan forces would soon be ready to take over security for the whole of the country, paving the way for the departure of NATO-led troops in two years.
The former CIA director dismissed the bombing as a desperate tactic by the insurgents who he said were frustrated at the growing strength of Afghan forces.
"This is what they resort to in order to try to continue to try to stimulate chaos in this country. They will not be successful at doing that," he said.
Reporters travelling with Panetta were earlier briefed by senior officers at the base who told them security was steadily improving in the Kandahar region and that the Taliban had been seriously weakened.
The head of NATO-led forces in the area, US Major General Robert Abrams, said the Taliban's capabilities were now "pretty limited".
But he said ISAF had detected "numerous" plots to attack Kandahar airfield that had been disrupted. More than 14,000 US troops are stationed at the base.
During a visit by Panetta to Camp Bastion in neighbouring Helmand province in March, an Afghan died after hijacking a truck and trying to ram it into US Marines waiting to greet the Pentagon chief at the airport.
Last week, Taliban suicide attackers struck at a NATO base at Jalalabad airport in eastern Afghanistan, killing five people and wounding several foreign troops in a two-hour battle, officials said.
The latest assaults came as the summer fighting season should be drawing to a close, suggesting the insurgency remains resilient after surviving the biggest onslaught US-led forces will throw against them.
The last of the additional 33,000 reinforcements US President Barack Obama deployed in a troop "surge" nearly three years ago left in September, and the vast majority of the remaining NATO force of more than 100,000 will follow by the end of 2014.
Panetta's trip to Afghanistan, likely his last before he retires, offered a chance to discuss options with commanders as Obama prepares to decide on the pace of a troop drawdown over the next two years and the size of a potential follow-on force after 2014.
Panetta announced that Obama has invited Karzai to travel to Washington to hold talks with the US president on January 7 "to discuss a shared vision of Afghanistan beyond 2014".
US and Afghan officials have started negotiating terms for a smaller US force to remain after 2014 and both Panetta and Karzai voiced optimism that the two sides would clinch an agreement.
Karzai repeated his stance that Kabul could be willing to grant legal immunity to US troops in return for the United States helping arm the Afghan military and turning over control of all detainees held by American forces.
"We know in Afghanistan the question of immunity for US troops is of immense importance for the United States," he told the news conference.
Armed men open fire in western Afghan town, kills, 2 police, wounds 1
HERAT, Afghanistan, Dec. 13 (Xinhua) -- Unknown armed opened fire on a police van in the western Herat city 640 km west of Kabul on Thursday, leaving two police dead and injuring another, police spokesman in the western region Abdul Rauf Ahmadi said.
"Unknown armed men driving a car opened fire on the vehicle of a senior police officer in Herat city in the morning rush hour killing two police constables and wounding another," Ahmadi told Xinhua.
However, the senior police officer escaped unhurt, Ahmadi asserted without giving more details.
The attackers made their good escape, he confirmed.
Taliban militants fighting the government and often target the government interests are yet to comment.
Georgia Vows to Continue Afghan Military Mission
Nino Beradze VOA News December 13, 2012
Georgia’s newly elected government has pledged to continue its long-term military contribution to the international security efforts in Afghanistan after most foreign troops pull out in 2014.
Georgian forces have been key players in NATO efforts in Afghanistan, and Georgia has lost more soldiers in the mission relative to the size of its population than any other participating nation. Since Georgia joined the operation in 2009, 18 Georgian troops have been killed -- seven of them this year.
Georgia now has some 1,570 troops serving in Afghanistan, making the small South Caucasian country of more than 4.5 million people the largest non-NATO contributor to the Afghan mission. Most of the troops are serving in the Afghan province of Helmand with a few dozen deployed to Kabul.
Georgia’s new defense minister, Irakli Alasania, recently visited the Georgian troops in Afghanistan and met with top NATO and Afghan officials. Alasania said Georgia is willing to support Afghan President Hamid Karzai in helping to train Afghan security forces after most international forces leave in 2014.
“Visiting our hero soldiers in Afghanistan is endorsement of their endeavor in ensuring Georgia’s security on one hand, and the global security, on the other,” he told VOA's Georgian Service. “Each of these operations, and our compatibility with NATO partners has a special significance.”
NATO's needs
During his October visit to Georgia’s capital, Tbilisi, NATO’s representative for the Caucasus region, James Appathurai, said Georgian troops will be crucial to NATO’s long-term focus on training Afghan forces.
“We do not want to plan anything without Georgia’s involvement,” he said. “Georgia might be willing to make its contribution to the Afghanistan mission after 2014, and this contribution will be very important.”
Georgia’s interests are both pragmatic and historical.
Despite Russian objections, Georgia has ambitions to become part of the NATO alliance. And Alasania said Georgians, like Afghans, have in the past fought off dominance by the former Soviet Union.
“We also know how difficult it is to be under the Soviet occupation -- Georgians have passed through this as well -- and it all builds up closer ties and makes us sympathetic to Afghan people,” Alasania said.
Still, Georgian officials concede that the Afghan mission does not guarantee admission to NATO.
“Nobody will give us a ticket to enroll NATO,” said Irakli Sesiashvili, who heads Georgia’s defense and security committee in parliament. “We have to get used to this as long as it needs a political decision of 28 countries.”
Georgia benefits
But Georgia analyst Jon Chicky at the National Defense University in Washington says Georgia can reap benefits in the long run.
“By deploying its troops to Afghanistan, Georgia demonstrates that it is a security provider to [the] NATO alliance, willing and able to send its troops into harm's way without the caveats that some of the existing NATO members have, even though their militaries are far more capable than Georgia's,” he said.
Chicky said Georgia’s involvement in Afghanistan will lead to better diplomatic relations with Washington as Georgian troops will help fill a void when U.S. soldiers leave Afghanistan in 2014.
Georgian armed forces will also gain international training on counter-insurgency while learning how to be part of a multinational coalition, Chicky said.
But some Georgian politicians say too much manpower is going to international deployment.
“If the very same political objective of a political elite can be achieved by two soldiers, then the third soldier is excessive,” said former Georgian Defense Minister David Tevzadze.
Georgian officials say the recent death of a 23-year-old corporal in Afghanistan is a grim reminder of the nation’s sacrifice.
“It is very difficult to talk about continuation of the mission and continuation of the policy when we lost another brave soldier a few days ago,” Alasania said recently. “It is a burden and obligation which Georgia has undertaken for ensuring international security.”
Panetta, other U.S. officials in Kabul paint rosy picture of Afghan situation
The Washington Post By Ernesto Londoño Dec 12, 2012
KABUL - With Defense Secretary Leon E. Panetta in Kabul to take stock as the Obama administration weighs how quickly to draw down troops over the next two years, a senior U.S. military commander on Wednesday hailed the progress Afghan security forces have made.
Marine Maj. Gen. Lawrence D. Nicholson, the head of operations for the U.S.-led coalition in Afghanistan, said NATO troops have begun a radical shift in mission: doing the bare minimum to support Afghan troops, who, he said, are starting to operate unilaterally. “We’re now un-partnering from” Afghan forces, Nicholson told reporters Wednesday evening. “We’re at that stage of the fight.”
If the Pentagon is telling the Obama administration the same thing in closed-door briefings, it could give the White House justification to accelerate the departure of the remaining 66,000 U.S. troops here.
The assessment Nicholson offered, however, is far rosier than the one that U.S. officials have provided recently. They have been citing the resilience of the Taliban and the shortcomings of the Afghan government and military.
Just one of 23 Afghan army brigades is able to operate on its own without air or other military support from the United States or NATO, according to a Pentagon report to Congress that was released Monday.
Nicholson said that although U.S. commanders have made “disingenuous” claims in the past about the extent to which Afghans were acting as equal partners in joint missions, officials now see the Afghan army as ready to operate largely on its own, albeit with key logistical and financial support from NATO. The new strategy as the United States tries to transfer greater responsibility to the Afghan government and military is one of “tough love,” Nicholson said.
“We are pushing them to failure,” he said. “We want them to see failure, we want them to smell it, we want them to taste it. We just don’t want them to achieve it.”
Panetta’s trip, likely to be his last official visit to the war zone, will give him a chance to consult with American commanders and Afghan President Hamid Karzai about the future U.S. role here as the decade-long war comes to an end.
“I look forward to a first-hand view,” Panetta told reporters traveling with him. “This will help me as we set the groundwork for the decisions that have to be made by the president with regards to our enduring presence.”
The Obama administration is debating how many service members it should aim to keep in the country after the U.S. combat mission ends at the end of 2014. Once that determination is made in the coming weeks, Panetta said, the White House will decide how quickly it will draw down the remaining forces.
The former CIA director, making his eighth visit to Afghanistan in four years, said he was heartened by what he described as signs of progress.
“It is clear to me that we are today in a far better place than we were four years ago, despite some very real challenges that remain in the region,” said Panetta, who is expected to retire as defense chief in the coming weeks.
Those challenges include endemic corruption, weak governance, insurgent havens in Pakistan and “a resilient Taliban,” he said.
The corruption challenge was underscored by a report released Tuesday by the special inspector general for Afghanistan reconstruction. It noted that devices intended to detect money laundering at Kabul International Airport apparently are not being used. The bulk currency counters, which can record the serial number of bills — and detect whether U.S. aid money is being smuggled out of the country — were not connected to the Internet, or deployed in any other way, the report said.
The inspector general also found that people whom the Afghan government designates as VIPs or VVIPs, short for “very, very important person,” continue to circumvent the cash screening system as they depart the country.
Panetta said violence is starting to ebb after years of escalations, particularly in urban areas.
The Pentagon report released Monday noted a slight uptick in “enemy-initiated attacks” during the reporting period — April 1 through Sept. 30 — compared with the same time frame the previous year. The 1 percent increase, the report said, was influenced by a poor poppy harvesting season, which drove more “low-level insurgents” to the battlefield.
The report noted a sharp increase in attacks in provinces in the west and north, which have traditionally been safer than the south and east. The military said the rise in attacks in those areas comes as insurgents have been pushed out of the Helmand River valley in the south.
The country’s eastern provinces along the Pakistani border remain “volatile,” according to the report, although Panetta said Pakistan has taken encouraging steps in recent months.
“We are more encouraged with the fact that they want to take steps to try to limit the terrorist threat within their own country and across the border,” he said. “As always, actions have to speak louder than words.”
The report to Congress included stark language on Pakistan, saying that its “passive acceptance of insurgent sanctuaries, selectivity in counterinsurgency operations that target only Pakistan militants” and failure to interdict explosives smuggled across the border “continue to undermine security in Afghanistan.”
Adding to the challenges, a smaller number of insurgents are signing up for the Afghan government’s reintegration program, the Pentagon report said. From April to September, 954 insurgents agreed to join the program, which seeks to place militants in alternative employment. More than 1,600 joined during the previous six-month period.
The report said the declining interest in reintegration, which was steepest in the east and south, was the result of insecurity in some areas and the meager financial incentive. Reintegrated militants get $120 a month for three months to aid their transition.
In a break with tradition, Gen. John R. Allen, the top commander of NATO troops in Afghanistan, is not expected to brief reporters traveling with Panetta.
The Marine general, who is expected to leave Kabul early next year, has been embroiled in a scandal involving social interactions between a socialite and senior commanders at U.S. Central Command in Tampa.
The Pentagon’s inspector general is reviewing the propriety of e-mails between Allen and the woman, Jill Kelley, who sparked the probe that led CIA chief David H. Petraeus to acknowledge an extramarital affair and resign.
Afghanistan, Pakistan agree to investigate spy attack
By Jonathon Burch Reuters Middle East – Wed, Dec 12, 2012.
* Afghanistan says attack was planned in Pakistan
* Pakistan denies involvement, says committed to peace
* Talks come amid strained ties between both countries
ANKARA, Dec 12 (Reuters) - Afghanistan and Pakistan agreed on Wednesday to jointly investigate an assassination attempt last week on Afghanistan's spy chief that has heightened tension between the countries after Kabul said the raid was planned in Pakistan.
Leaders of both countries, accompanied by ministers and their army chiefs, met at a trilateral summit hosted by Turkey only days after the head of Afghanistan's intelligence agency was wounded by a suicide bomber in the Afghan capital. "A joint working group comprising relevant agencies of Afghanistan and Pakistan will address the recent attack on the National Security Director of Afghanistan," all three countries said in a statement.
With explosives hidden inside his underwear and posing as a peace messenger, a suicide bomber wounded spy chief Asadullah Khalid last Thursday in a brazen attack that threatened to derail a nascent and already fragile reconciliation process. After the attack, Afghan President Hamid Karzai stopped short of directly blaming his neighbour but said he knew "for a fact" the bomber came from Pakistan and that Kabul would seek "clarification" from Islamabad during the meetings in Turkey. Pakistan had said it would assist in any investigation into the bombing, but had also urged Karzai to provide evidence before "levelling charges", and suggested Kabul look into any lapses in its own security plans that may have facilitated the attack.
While Karzai and his Pakistani counterpart Asif Ali Zardari put up a united front on Wednesday, both leaders were scant on details of their talks over the attack, one of several in recent years in which Kabul alleges Pakistani involvement.
Asked whether he had received the clarification he had wanted before the meeting, Karzai said: "We had very good conversations and we are not going to divulge details." Zardari declined to comment specifically on Karzai's allegations but said: "It is in the interest of Pakistan that
Afghanistan prospers".
Speaking to Reuters after the summit, Pakistani Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar said Karzai had assured the Pakistani side he had not specifically accused Pakistan.
"President Karzai told us that he made no specific remark which was specific to Pakistan ... because it would be obviously quite undeserved if any such remark was made," Khar said. Both countries needed to have systems in place to protect people from such attacks, Khar said, and that there should be "no question of making allegations on anyone".
Ties between Kabul and Islamabad have been strained by cross-border raids by militant groups and accusations that Pakistan's intelligence agency backs Afghan insurgent groups to advance its own interests in the country.
Pakistan denies the accusations.
PRISONER RELEASE
Despite their differences, Pakistan recently has sent strong signals it would back the Afghan government's efforts to draw the Taliban into negotiations after more than a decade of war. Pakistan released 13 mid-level Afghan Taliban officials last month, meeting demands by Kabul, which has repeatedly pushed for access to prominent insurgents.
Officials from both countries have said Pakistan would also consider freeing former Afghan Taliban second-in-command Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar if lower-ranking figures who were released advance the peace process.
Afghan officials believe he may command enough respect to persuade the Taliban to engage in formal talks with Kabul. Foreign Minister Khar said it was too early to start talking about any possible release of Baradar but that Pakistan would continue to release other Taliban prisoners.
(Writing by Jonathon Burch; Editing by Michael Roddy)
Afghan judge Zahorudin recorded on tape 'seeking bribe'
BBC News By Emal Pasarly BBC World Service 12 December 2012
A senior judge in Afghanistan has been secretly recorded demanding money and marriage from a young woman seeking his help in her divorce case.
In the recording the judge can be heard asking for over $2,000 as well as the woman's hand in return for his help.
The judge has strenuously denied the allegations, arguing that he was only "joking" about the marriage proposal.
Correspondents say the case highlights widespread corruption in the Afghan justice system.
The head of Afghanistan's anti-corruption department, Azizullah Ludin, has promised to take action.
"Once we get the evidence, we will investigate this case jointly with the Supreme Court and I will personally involve the chief justice," he told the BBC.
President Karzai, who has repeatedly promised to do more to tackle corruption, has also ordered officials to look into the case.
His spokesman said he had read the BBC story with "great interest" and asked for "a serious investigation".
'Cover you in gold'
The woman seeking the divorce, Dewa, told the BBC that when she attended court in the eastern city of Jalalabad the judge, called Zahorudin, offered to visit her family home to help with the case. Once there he demanded money.
As a radio journalist, Dewa had access to recording equipment which she hid under her robe.
"When the talk turned to paying bribes... I got my recorder and started to record his voice."
The BBC Afghan Service has obtained a copy and verified the recording.
In it the 65-year-old judge can be heard asking for 20,000 Afghanis ($390; £240) for himself and another 100,000 Afghanis ($1,960; £1,215) for the judge presiding over the divorce case.
When Dewa refused the proposal and said she was unable and unwilling to pay, Zahorudin made a different offer, she alleges.
On the recording he can be heard promising to resolve Dewa's financial problems if she agrees to marry him.
"I will pay two million [Afghanis] for you and cover you in gold from your toes to your forehead," he is heard saying.
Dewa's mother was present during the conversation and said that she could not hide her astonishment.
"I was very sad," she said, "telling myself that this man has sons, daughters-in-law and a wife. But this dirty man is now trying to take advantage of our desperate situation," she told the BBC.
When the BBC contacted the judge by telephone, he at first claimed that he did not know Dewa. When confronted with the evidence, he claimed the journalist had cut and pasted his voice using her radio editing skills.
He said that the entire story was a "conspiracy by rival judges and provincial elders" to prevent him from getting a higher ranking position.
As for his marriage proposal Zahorudin claimed he had been talking in jest. "She was saying 'no-one will marry me', so I offered to marry her. I told her this jokingly."
But in the 15-minute recording Zahorudin repeated his proposal of marriage 15 times.
He also boasted how his standing could protect Dewa.
"A court cannot end animosity. But when you marry a strong man, he will put an end to animosity," the judge is heard saying.
"He will say to your current husband... From now on I don't want to see your face, if you do show your face, I will shoot you in the head."
Dewa's family took the tape to the Supreme Court in Kabul, but so far no action has been taken against the judge.
The divorce case itself has remained unresolved.
UN: Over 2 million Afghans at risk this winter
Associated Press By By PATRICK QUINN 12/12/2012
KABUL, Afghanistan - More than 2 million Afghans are at risk from cold, disease and malnutrition this winter as an international appeal for funds to help one of the world's poorest countries has fallen drastically short of its goal, the United Nations and several humanitarian agencies warned on Wednesday.
Only 48 percent of $448 million that has been requested to help 8.8 million Afghans had been pledged by the end of November, according to the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.
Preparations are under way to help Afghans deal with harsh winter conditions, especially 400,000 people who live in some of the most remote mountainous areas of northern and central Afghanistan.
Snow has already covered mountaintops and the first snowfall of the year was forecast for later this week in the Afghan capital, Kabul.
Last year, Afghanistan experienced its coldest winter and heaviest snowfall in more than 15 years.
"People live in remote areas with no access to health facilities," said Mohammad Daim Kakar, director of the Afghan National Disaster Management Authority. "Many people die of pneumonia and measles."
According to the U.N. and other humanitarian agencies working here, 20 of Afghanistan's 34 provinces have high-risk areas where emergency food, fuel and medical supplies are needed.
"I think the events of last year have meant that we need to be prepared and have a response ready," said Mark Bowen, the U.N. humanitarian coordinator for Afghanistan.
Heavy snows and avalanches killed dozens of people in parts of the country last winter, including more than 30 — many of them children — who froze to death in Kabul.
The Afghan capital is home to 55 makeshift camps that house more than 30,000 people — many of them displaced from elsewhere in Afghanistan because of violence.
"If we buy food we will die of the cold. If we don't buy food, we will starve," said Hachilai Khan, a 20-year-old laborer who has made an informal settlement on the outskirts of Kabul his home.
The settlement, made up mainly of Afghan refugees who returned from Pakistan, houses 552 people from 90 families. Most live in mud huts covered with plastic sheeting or tarps. The mud floors are covered with plastic or old carpeting.
To keep warm, residents burn scrap wood and dried animal dung. There is no running water and toilets are trenches dug near the makeshift homes.
"All these residents are vulnerable. They need firewood, clothes, blankets and shelter material," said Rachel Eskrine, who works with the French humanitarian organization Solidarites International.
The needs of these people haven't disappeared, but the money has.
"There is general donor fatigue," said Bowen, the U.N.'s humanitarian coordinator. "And more so, there is also Afghan fatigue."
The Afghan Consolidated Appeal, which was made on behalf of 63 humanitarian agencies for 171 projects around Afghanistan, received just $214 million — about 48 percent of what it required.
Separately, other donors contributed another $270 million for projects outside the appeal, bringing the total humanitarian commitment for Afghanistan to $484 million, or half the $894 million spent in 2011.
News Analysis: Harsh winter adds to Afghans' economic woes
by Farid Behbud and Chen Xin
KABUL, Dec. 13 (Xinhua) -- The worsening economy and the continuing threat by militant groups have dampened the Afghan spirit to fight back and rebuild their country, particularly now that they are experiencing one of their worst winters.
"Another harsh winter is coming and I don't have enough money to buy even firewood after buying foodstuff at skyrocketing prices, " said Matiullah, 35, who, like many Afghans, goes only by one name.
"The free market economy has frustrated the people. It is not working in Afghanistan. The sellers have increased the price of basic items such as firewood and natural gas due to the recent devaluation of Afghanis against foreign currencies. The government has failed to check prices especially during this harsh winter," Matiullah, father of five, said.
The economy of the war-torn country has improved significantly since the fall of Taliban regime in late 2001, mainly as a result of the multi-billion dollars fund donated to the embattled country by the international community.
However, Afghanistan still remains one of the poorest and least developed countries in the world and has remained dependent on foreign aid.
"It is really a burden for all Afghans particularly people living in suburban areas to buy materials for making their houses warm in the harsh winter. At the same time we have to buy foodstuffs and keep some money for medicines and hospital expanses, " Matiullah said, adding that the dusty weather and pollution have caused his children and wife to suffer from respiratory diseases throughout the winter.
"Business is bad. The high dollar is hurting firewood business this year. Winter is the only season for us to sell wood. The costumers frequently come here in the market. They negotiate the price but leave without buying wood or just buying a small amount, " a wood seller, Mohammad Usman, said.
According to the figures released by Da Afghanistan Bank, the Afghan central bank, on Wednesday Dec. 12, one U.S. dollar was traded for 52.15 Afghanis, while one U.S. dollar equaled 48.71 Afghanis in Dec. 12 last year.
The lowest exchange rate for Afghanis since the beginning of the year was about 55.50 late last month.
The price of one metric ton of firewood is about 12,900 Afghanis, or about 247 U.S. dollars, in Kabul markets.
Although Taliban regime had been driven out of power in late 2001 and open fighting is finished, the restoration of a durable peace is still a dream for many Afghans as anti-government militants continue to carry out suicide attacks and roadside bombings that kill innocent civilians.
In Kabul, some 80 percent of the population lives in unplanned settlements where poor sanitation and lack of access to potable water is common and nearly all of the buildings have no central heating system.
Winter temperatures particularly in central and northern parts in Afghanistan could fall to around -26C.
"There is advancement in heating system around the world. We are still using the metallic stoves producing too much smoke. We know that they cause weather pollution and we are losing greeneries by cutting trees but we cannot afford to buy natural gas," Matiullah said.
The price of one kilogram of natural gas is 75 Afghanis against 45 nearly one month ago, he said.
Although there are no official statistics, it is believed that some nine million Afghans live under poverty line and rely on only one U.S. dollar income daily.
On top of this, there has been a 60 percent increase in the prices of food items in Afghanistan since 2007, according to officials.
Afghanistan: An Army Prepares
When US troops leave Afghanistan in 2014, will the country's own forces be able to hold the line against the Taliban?
Aljazeera By filmmaker John D. McHugh People and Power 12 Dec 2012
The US military has an expression – no man gets left behind. But with the withdrawal of coalition combat troops from Afghanistan in 2014 drawing closer, the men of the Afghan National Army (ANA) could be forgiven for feeling that they are indeed being abandoned.
In order to be able to leave and not have Afghanistan collapse immediately on their departure, the Americans announced at the end of 2009 that the size of the ANA would be increased to almost 200,000 soldiers.
A huge recruitment and training drive began, with new military training centres being set up around the country to facilitate the explosion in numbers.
In June 2012, slightly ahead of schedule, the ANA reached its quota. With great fanfare this was announced to the world as a sign that the army was ready to fulfill its obligations in protecting Afghanistan.
But the hard reality is that the ANA still depends on the US-led coalition for logistics, maintenance, intelligence-gathering and analysis, artillery and air support, medical evacuation (Medevac) and much, much more.
In fact, talk to any coalition troops on the ground and they will tell you the Afghans can fight, but only after they have been fed, clothed, armed and delivered to the battlefield by NATO.
Chief Warrant Officer Klaus Augustinus is a Danish mentor/advisor to the ANA and is on his third tour in Afghanistan. He openly admits that he was unimpressed with the ANA in the past, but now he feels they are making real progress. However, he says, it is the insistence on viewing the ANA through the prism of a Western army that leads to many problems.
“Always keep in mind that the Afghan way is the right way,” Klaus says. “We’re not going to do it any faster than they can cope with it. Otherwise we’re going to lose.”
Desertion
There is no doubt that this huge new army is plagued with problems, but by far the biggest is the sheer turnover of men - currently running at about 30 per cent a year. In other words, the ANA has to find replacements for around 60,000 men every year.
There are many reasons for this attrition. The casualty rate is high, with more than 850 soldiers confirmed killed in 2012 alone, and a great many more wounded. As the ANA takes over the lead role in providing security throughout Afghanistan in 2013, both figures are expected to increase dramatically.
Part of this will doubtless be due to more fighting, but only barely adequate medical support and the likely withdrawal of full airborne Medevac services will not help either.
Currently the ANA relies on the coalition helicopters to take its wounded to hospital quickly. If not available, the ANA will have to use ground transportation to move badly injured men, increasing the time it takes to get them to a place of proper care and significantly reducing survival rates.
Failure to re-enlist is also a big problem. Right now about one-quarter of all recruits decline to sign up for a further tour of duty contract after their initial three-year commitment is completed.
Then there is desertion – a concern to all army commanders of a volunteer army during a war, but something to which the ANA currently seems especially vulnerable. The Afghan defence ministry admits to losing between 7-10 per cent of its troops every year in this way.
When we spoke to General Karimi, the ANA chief of staff, he told us that desertion is much reduced and that measures are in place to reduce it further. That may be true, but no one knows exactly what will happen when the ANA begins bearing the brunt of the fight against the Taliban in a little over a year’s time.
Taliban intimidation and threats
So why are desertion rates so high? We managed to find some deserters (it is not hard to track them down) and they cited three main reasons: corruption and abuse of power by officers, lack of care for troops and probably most significantly, Taliban intimidation and threats.
Naim was in the ANA for two-and-a-half years. His family had not wanted him to join the military, but they were poor, and so in order to help out he signed up. He says he actually enjoyed his time in the army and he saw a lot of action in the turbulent east of the country. But one day he was wounded in a firefight, shot in the knee, and everything changed. He says it was an American soldier who rushed to his aid, and gave him immediate treatment. Within 10 minutes he was on a US Medevac helicopter, and spent the next month being treated by US medical staff – for which he is grateful.
But from the time he was injured, he says, he was abandoned by his own army. No one, not even his platoon NCOs (non-commissioned officers) or commander, came to check on him, to see how he was doing or to ask whether he was receiving appropriate care. Worse still, nobody from the ANA bothered to tell his family where he was.
After a month, he was transferred to another facility and was able to call home. But by this time, having repeatedly asked for information on their missing son, his parents had been told that he was dead and had held funeral rites. Though delighted and relieved to hear he was safe, they were understandably furious about ANA’s callous disregard. When Naim was released from hospital two months later, his father forbade him from returning to his unit. It is a story in line with an often-heard complaint from former recruits, who say the value that the coalition armies place on the health and general wellbeing of their troops is rarely, if ever, replicated in the Afghan force.
But in truth, Taliban threats against individual ANA soldiers - and more insidiously against their families - are probably a much bigger cause for desertion than their own side’s institutional indifference. We spoke to one deserter, identified in our film as ‘Amir’, who had gone absent from his unit only a few weeks earlier. He told us that the Taliban had visited his family home several times and told them that if he did not leave the army, they would cut off his head. When that did not work, they extended the threat to the whole family and he had no choice but to do as they ordered. He is still furious about it, but said he had to put his relatives first.
'Green on blue'
Of course, it is not the only way the Taliban have sought to disrupt the buildup of the ANA. It is now generally accepted that in the rush to accrue the huge numbers needed, the ANA was far from effective in vetting volunteers – and that is a failing that the insurgents have done their best to exploit.
Although it is by no means the only cause, it may well have contributed to a rise in so-called 'green on blue' attacks over the last 12 months. So far, more than 50 coalition soldiers have been killed in 2012 in these insider incidents, when a member of the Afghan security forces, or an infiltrator dressed in a uniform, turns his weapon on his unsuspecting Western allies. The problem is, it is something that is almost impossible for coalition troops to guard against when working alongside Afghans, and worse, every safeguard that is put in place erodes trust between the two groups.
Of course, the perception in the West that the Taliban is behind all of these attacks is somewhat misplaced. Insurgents routinely claim each and every 'green on blue' attack as a planned operation, but the reality is that many are the result of a real or perceived slight, or an argument that just went too far. After extensive questioning of the attackers (or at least those that are not gunned down immediately) the Afghan authorities say approximately 25 percent of the perpetrators have provable links to the Taliban, but the rest of the incidents are down to other factors.
Whether this is true or not, the fact that some attacks are orchestrated by the Taliban is enough to add to the general Western clamour to get out of an ungrateful Afghanistan as soon as possible – which means they have fulfilled their purpose.
Equipment
There is no doubt that this huge new army is plagued with problems, but by far the biggest is the sheer turnover of men - currently running at about 30 per cent a year. In other words, the ANA has to find replacements for around 60,000 men every year.
There are many reasons for this attrition. The casualty rate is high, with more than 850 soldiers confirmed killed in 2012 alone, and a great many more wounded. As the ANA takes over the lead role in providing security throughout Afghanistan in 2013, both figures are expected to increase dramatically.
Part of this will doubtless be due to more fighting, but only barely adequate medical support and the likely withdrawal of full airborne Medevac services will not help either.
Currently the ANA relies on the coalition helicopters to take its wounded to hospital quickly. If not available, the ANA will have to use ground transportation to move badly injured men, increasing the time it takes to get them to a place of proper care and significantly reducing survival rates.
Failure to re-enlist is also a big problem. Right now about one-quarter of all recruits decline to sign up for a further tour of duty contract after their initial three-year commitment is completed.
Then there is desertion – a concern to all army commanders of a volunteer army during a war, but something to which the ANA currently seems especially vulnerable. The Afghan defence ministry admits to losing between 7-10 per cent of its troops every year in this way.
When we spoke to General Karimi, the ANA chief of staff, he told us that desertion is much reduced and that measures are in place to reduce it further. That may be true, but no one knows exactly what will happen when the ANA begins bearing the brunt of the fight against the Taliban in a little over a year’s time.
Taliban intimidation and threats
So why are desertion rates so high? We managed to find some deserters (it is not hard to track them down) and they cited three main reasons: corruption and abuse of power by officers, lack of care for troops and probably most significantly, Taliban intimidation and threats.
Naim was in the ANA for two-and-a-half years. His family had not wanted him to join the military, but they were poor, and so in order to help out he signed up. He says he actually enjoyed his time in the army and he saw a lot of action in the turbulent east of the country. But one day he was wounded in a firefight, shot in the knee, and everything changed. He says it was an American soldier who rushed to his aid, and gave him immediate treatment. Within 10 minutes he was on a US Medevac helicopter, and spent the next month being treated by US medical staff – for which he is grateful.
But from the time he was injured, he says, he was abandoned by his own army. No one, not even his platoon NCOs (non-commissioned officers) or commander, came to check on him, to see how he was doing or to ask whether he was receiving appropriate care. Worse still, nobody from the ANA bothered to tell his family where he was.
After a month, he was transferred to another facility and was able to call home. But by this time, having repeatedly asked for information on their missing son, his parents had been told that he was dead and had held funeral rites. Though delighted and relieved to hear he was safe, they were understandably furious about ANA’s callous disregard. When Naim was released from hospital two months later, his father forbade him from returning to his unit. It is a story in line with an often-heard complaint from former recruits, who say the value that the coalition armies place on the health and general wellbeing of their troops is rarely, if ever, replicated in the Afghan force.
But in truth, Taliban threats against individual ANA soldiers - and more insidiously against their families - are probably a much bigger cause for desertion than their own side’s institutional indifference. We spoke to one deserter, identified in our film as ‘Amir’, who had gone absent from his unit only a few weeks earlier. He told us that the Taliban had visited his family home several times and told them that if he did not leave the army, they would cut off his head. When that did not work, they extended the threat to the whole family and he had no choice but to do as they ordered. He is still furious about it, but said he had to put his relatives first.
'Green on blue'
Of course, it is not the only way the Taliban have sought to disrupt the buildup of the ANA. It is now generally accepted that in the rush to accrue the huge numbers needed, the ANA was far from effective in vetting volunteers – and that is a failing that the insurgents have done their best to exploit.
Although it is by no means the only cause, it may well have contributed to a rise in so-called 'green on blue' attacks over the last 12 months. So far, more than 50 coalition soldiers have been killed in 2012 in these insider incidents, when a member of the Afghan security forces, or an infiltrator dressed in a uniform, turns his weapon on his unsuspecting Western allies. The problem is, it is something that is almost impossible for coalition troops to guard against when working alongside Afghans, and worse, every safeguard that is put in place erodes trust between the two groups.
Of course, the perception in the West that the Taliban is behind all of these attacks is somewhat misplaced. Insurgents routinely claim each and every 'green on blue' attack as a planned operation, but the reality is that many are the result of a real or perceived slight, or an argument that just went too far. After extensive questioning of the attackers (or at least those that are not gunned down immediately) the Afghan authorities say approximately 25 percent of the perpetrators have provable links to the Taliban, but the rest of the incidents are down to other factors.
Whether this is true or not, the fact that some attacks are orchestrated by the Taliban is enough to add to the general Western clamour to get out of an ungrateful Afghanistan as soon as possible – which means they have fulfilled their purpose.
Equipment
In Chicago in early 2012, Barack Obama, the US president, described the plans to withdraw from Afghanistan as “irreversible”.
But the fortunes of the ANA are very much reversible, and if the army collapses, or fractures along ethnic lines, Afghanistan’s last line of defence will crumble and chaos will engulf the country once again.
From what we witnessed in the making of this film, it is hard to see how the Afghan army, however dedicated, can achieve what the far greater resourced “Coalition of the Willing” has failed to do over the past 11 years.
And yet, despite this, morale among ANA troops - or at least among many of those we spoke to - is higher than it might be expected to be.
Although they have been playing a support role in the coalition’s fight against the Taliban up until now, Afghan units have had their successes and on occasion ANA troops have displayed notable courage and determination in the field. This kind of commitment may not be enough to prevail against the Taliban in any long drawn-out fight, but once US troops leave and the dynamics of the war change (as they must), it may just be sufficient to hold the line for a time, and allow Afghanistan to find a way to peace through other means.
Obama must seize moment for Taliban talks
FINANCIAL TIMES ‘A’LIST By Ahmed Rashid December 13 2012
As the fighting season winds down in Afghanistan for the winter months, the four major players in the Afghan imbroglio – the US, Pakistan, the Afghan government and the Taliban – are involved in a complex game of political and military manoeuvring ahead of what is expected to be a decisive round of peace talks in the spring.
With the withdrawal of US troops approaching and the Afghan President Hamid Karzai’s tenure nearing an end, for once all all four parties appear to have an interest in talks.
Even while waiting for a new Secretary of State to be appointed, US diplomats have been visiting the region, talking to allies and urging them to try and bring the Taliban back to peace talks in Qatar that were suspended by the Taliban last March.
Those talks are critical because they hold out the promise of a Taliban front office in Qatar and the possibility that the US could free five senior Taliban commanders from Guantanamo Bay a confidence building measure. The Taliban have insisted on talking first to the Americans before they hold any dialogue with the Kabul regime.
A game changer in recent months is the Pakistan military’s surprising shift of attitude. It has freed Taliban prisoners it has been holding. It has reportedly now told the Taliban and Kabul that it will actively help the process of reconciliation and has been urging both parties to start talking to one another.
The army’s change of heart is premised on the hope that reconciliation between the Afghan Taliban, the Americans and the Kabul regime will lead to a reduction in the violence being perpetrated by the Pakistani Taliban in north west Pakistan.
Taliban commanders and fighters have had a sanctuary in Pakistan since 2002 and have been allowed to raise recruits, funds and logistics through Pakistani allies. But now the Pakistani army and its Interservices Intelligence (ISI) are faced with crippling violence at home that has claimed several thousand lives this year. The government and the army are finding it difficult to cope with two insurgencies, mayhem in Karachi, a moribund economy and a political crisis with elections to be held next May.
However even Pakistan cannot force the Taliban to the table, nor can it change their insistence on wanting to talk to the Americans first. Thus for Islamabad also, restarting the Qatar talks is vitally important if its own initiative of reconciliation is to succeed.
For the Afghan government, which in 2014 faces a withdrawal of US and NATO forces and presidential elections, it is paramount to achieve a ceasefire with the Taliban before that date. A war with the Taliban absent NATO support would overburden the fledgling Afghan army and put the survival of the government at risk.
Thus Afghanistan’s High Peace Council, which is tasked with negotiating with the Taliban, has met several times with Pakistan army chief General Ashfaq Kiyani in order to work out a common road map that both can pursue to bring the Taliban to the table. The Council also works closely with the Americans.
In mid-November Pakistan freed nine Taliban officials it had been holding, releasing them to the Afghan High Peace Council saying it would soon free more Taliban prisoners. The ISI is holding at least 100 Taliban leaders and foot soldiers but is expected to eventually free them all.
Pakistan, Afghanistan and the US are already working closely together through meetings of what is called the core group. However now Pakistan and Afghanistan want to see a much clearer American indication of where the talks should lead before they offer any more concessions to the Taliban.
The key question in everyone’s mind in the region is whether in his second term President Barack Obama will get serious about promoting a political settlement in Afghanistan.
Although he authorised a political process in his first term he never really gave it presidential support. The key question now is who becomes Secretary of State and who is appointed to lead a new team that will deal with AfPak talks and peace making. Most officials in the region are rooting for Senator John Kerry as Secretary of State simply because they know him and he knows the region and its myriad of leaders and warlords well.
However the core group still faces an overwhelming problem: none of the players trust each other. US-Pakistan relations have deteriorated over the past two years largely because of Afghanistan. They are only now being mended.
US officials are still deeply sceptical about whether the ISI and the military are genuinely changing policy towards the Taliban.
Mr Karzai has been at odds with the US over a range of issues including whether the US should have a long term presence in Afghanistan, whether it should hand over all Afghan prisoners to Afghan authorities, and how to map out a common process for peace talks and curbing corruption within the government. Mr Karzai still finds it easier to lambast the US in his speeches than to admit to any faults of his own or to improve governance.
The Taliban of course trust nobody. They blame the Americans for the shut down of the Qatar process and now face tumultuous internal disagreements over whether those talks should be revived or not. The Taliban are dependent on the Pakistanis but loathe the ISI for its past micro management of their affairs and they consider Mr Karzai a worthless American puppet.
Time is now of the essence. Any talks will need months, possibly years, but everyone – even the Taliban – would like to see a ceasefire in the war before 2014 so that the Americans can withdraw and a new political process start in Kabul. Mr Karzai cannot be a candidate for presidential elections in 2014, which offers the opportunity for a new and invigorated Afghan leadership, which the Taliban could accept as a negotiating partner.
The Americans in particular need to appoint a heavyweight diplomat to take the AfPak process forward and Mr Obama needs to personally get engaged. NATO countries need to play less of a waiting game and be more proactive in pushing the US to speed up the talks. Above all the Afghans who have battled outsiders and each other for 34 years need to show maturity and seek a peaceful resolution to their wars.
The writer is the author of ‘Pakistan on the Brink – The Future of Pakistan, Afghanistan and the West.’
Pakistan Extends Refugee Status For Afghans
December 13, 2012 Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
Afghan refugees in Pakistan have had their refugee status extended.
The Pakistani government said Afghans' refugee status was set to expire on December 30, but would now be extended by six months.
The government says there are 1.6 million registered and 1 million unregistered Afghans in Pakistan.
Analysts say many Afghan refugees in Pakistan are reluctant to return to Afghanistan, because of fears about violence and the poor economy.
The Pakistani government has said it will not forcibly evict Afghans.
Afghans with refugee status are eligible for government identification cards that can be used to get bank accounts or register for school.
Based on reporting by AP and Nation.com.pk
Young Afghans form new political movement with hopes for the future
Diverse and influential founding members are optimistic they can transcend ethnic divides and build a more stable Afghanistan
Guardian.co.uk By Emma Graham-Harrison Wednesday 12 December 2012
In a country where politics is often seen as a byword for corruption, and which is still dominated by jihadi-era commanders, a small group of influential young Afghans have started a civil and political movement that hopes to transcend old ethnic and sectarian divides.
As Nato troops head home and gloomy predictions about the country's future multiply, the founders of the group argue that Afghanistan's young people have not given up on their country, they are just fed-up with its ruthless, divisive politicians. And as two-thirds of the population is under 30, they potentially have a very large constituency.
"Our strength is that we can mobilise this new generation that no longer feels comfortable with the fragmentations of the past, but is also invested in the future of this country," said Haseeb Humayoon, chief executive of Qara Consulting and a founding member of the group, which has adopted the motto "Our country, our responsibility".
Its name, Afghanistan 1400, looks towards a new century in the Persian calendar, which begins in the year 2020 of the western calendar.
"Ten years is not much in the life of a nation, but we hope we can ensure our political and economic development will be irreversible by then," said Ershad Ahmadi, a senior diplomat and another founding member. He said the party grew out of a concern among his generation that they were just "onlookers" to the country's turmoil.
It brings together men and women from almost all the country's many ethnic groups, and the chair is a woman, a rare example of diversity in a country where ethnic and sectarian divisions are often exploited for political ends, and women are frequently marginalised.
"There are so many ethno-centric people in this society," Ahmadi said. "They are very active on TVs and radios and social networks, and call each other a lot of names. But for some reason they are confused about what to call us, because when they see the diversity in Afghanistan 1400, they are like 'what should we do with these guys, they have everybody around the table'."
The group's 80 founding members are influential as well as diverse, including top civil servants, businessmen, the president's former spokesman, a security expert and one of Kabul's most prominent journalists.
The idea was born, like many political movements, at a local cafe, although it took a core group 12 months of arguing to hammer out a manifesto they could all unite behind.
"It has been a thrilling and exhausting experience. Because the people who have come together are the people who normally wouldn't go easily and associate themselves with a brand," said Humayoon, who after years in business scatters his political discussions with marketing words.
Attempts to set up more progressive parties in Afghanistan have sometimes foundered outside the relatively liberal capital, but the group already has a base in the main regional hubs and founding members such as Abdul Ali Shamsi, a southern businessman, now based in Kandahar, who for years advised the governor of neighbouring Helmand province on how to reach out to the Taliban.
When Kabul-based members failed to show up for meetings, the others teased them with the example of Shamsi, who flew up from the south for all the long discussions.
And they are not sticking to drawing up political manifestos. This April, while still arguing over their founding aims, the group organised an anonymous poster campaign to lionise the commandos, police and soldiers who responded to a complex Taliban attack on the city with giant billboards and 5,000 fly-posters handed out downtown to enthusiastic drivers.
A few months later, when insurgents attacked a popular picnic spot, they joined with other civil society groups to organise a clean-up, and planted flowers where the dead had fallen.
"These efforts have two impacts: one is we stand up against things we believe are wrong, but the other more important factor is we project courage, we enable people to stand up against violence, people who in many ways have been passive because of fears instilled among the population," Shamsi said.
Afghans Urged to Take All Military Tasks Except Aviation
Bloomberg By Gopal Ratnam Dec 12, 2012
Afghan military forces are being pushed to take over all operational tasks except aviation missions by 2015, when most American and allied troops are scheduled to have departed the country, according to a U.S. officer.
“They should be able to do all the tasks except perhaps aviation, close air support, that might be the one outlier we are still going to be involved in,” U.S. Marine Corps Major General Lawrence Nicholson, the deputy chief of staff for operations with the International Security Assistance Force, said today in Kabul. “We have 24 months to get that right.”
Nicholson briefed reporters after U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta arrived to meet with military commanders and Afghan President Hamid Karzai to discuss troop levels after 2014, when President Barack Obama has pledged to remove most of the 66,000 U.S. forces now in the country.
“I look forward to having a firsthand view,” Panetta told reporters accompanying him on the plane to Kabul. “This will help me as we set the groundwork for decisions” to be made by Obama.
U.S. and coalition forces are “not going to be moving troops by helicopters, we are not going to be doing engineering, explosive ordnance disposal, those things are going to be done by them” after 2014, Nicholson said of the Afghan forces.
Nicholson said the coalition forces now are doing less “partnering” with Afghan forces, instead providing aviation and surface fire support, bomb disposal, route clearance and medical evacuation. Troop Numbers
Nicholson declined to say how many troops will be required after 2014. The Los Angeles Times today reported that the administration may retain as few as 6,000 U.S. troops after 2014.
While the U.S. and Afghanistan signed a strategic framework agreement in May that calls for a U.S. troop presence beyond 2014, they are now negotiating a “status of forces agreement” that would resolve issues such as the U.S. insistence on immunity from Afghan legal action against personnel who remain.
A Pentagon report issued Dec. 9 set out a list of challenges facing Afghanistan, including terrorist safe havens in Pakistan.
“The Taliban-led insurgency and its al-Qaeda affiliates still operate from sanctuaries in Pakistan,” according to the report’s executive summary. “The insurgency’s safe havens in Pakistan, the limited institutional capacity of the Afghan government and endemic corruption remain the greatest risks to long-term stability and sustainable security in Afghanistan.”
To contact the reporter on this story: Gopal Ratnam in Kabul at gratnam1@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: John Walcott at jwalcott9@bloomberg.net
Afghanistan's Garmsir is a success for Nato – but its future remains uncertain
Taliban may be biding their time in Garmsir, Helmand province, which has been superficially transformed with Nato cash
Guardian.co.uk By Emma Graham-Harrison Wednesday 12 December 2012
Hazarjoft - The villages and fields of Garmsir lie like a snake across the deserts of southern Afghanistan, the head a cluster of mud houses, irrigation canals and bazaars around the district capital, the body a narrow strip of cotton, opium poppy and wheat twisting down beside the Helmand river towards Pakistan and Iran.
It was mostly Taliban territory until US marines poured hundreds of troops and hundreds of millions of dollars into reclaiming this impoverished corner of an already poor province. Crammed bazaars, reoccupied homes and busy roads are testament to their efforts.
"Compared with two years ago it's night and day," said Captain Devin Blowse, commanding officer of the company of US marines fighting in Garmsir. "Then if you were from here, you either stayed in your compound, left to go to a more stable area, or you worked with the Taliban."
There are probably just a few dozen insurgent fighters left in Garmsir, he added, and the main Nato base where soldiers once lived off ration packs and bunkered down during regular rocket attacks has become a relatively comfortable complex with internet, full-service laundry and two cooked meals a day.
The only deaths on the marines' summer combat tour were at the hands of a rogue police employee who gunned down three men at a gym inside their main base, Forward Operating Base Delhi. Outside, they have barely come under fire.
Afghan security forces, who mostly vanished as violence increased, have returned to take over a string of marine outposts along the 45 miles of river and cotton and poppy fields that make up Garmsir. Civilian officials are in charge of health, education and justice.
As Nato prepares to pull most combat troops out of Afghanistan by the end of 2014, Garmsir could be presented as a model for what it wants to leave behind: violence is sharply down, security forces are actively taking on insurgents, and the government is organising basic services such as schools and clinics.
But the US marines who were the main architects of the current stability are leaving soon, and it is not yet clear whether the patchy branches of the central government and its security forces that are meant to take over are up to the task yet.
The people with perhaps most at stake in Garmsir's future – families who eke out a living from its poppy and cotton – have yet to make up their minds, a reminder of how fragile the changes seem to those living through them. While some have thrown in their lot with the government against the Taliban, officials acknowledge many are staying on the sidelines of a bitter conflict with no clear end.
"They are not opposed to the government but they don't have a good relationship either: they are just farmers, they are waiting to see the result, who is the winner – the government or the Taliban," said the acting Garmsir district governor, Ayoub Omar, in an office decorated with a map of Afghanistan, plastic flowers and several velveteen sofas. "Whoever wins, they will work with him." Few answers
Many resent a government they feel provides little help, and security forces seen as transient at best, predatory outsiders at worst. Dull and dangerous rural backwaters such as Garmsir rarely attract the best civil servants, police and army officers and when it does, it struggles to hold on to them. What little development the area has seen, in the form of new schools and roads, has largely come from foreigners, not the government in Kabul.
A few dozen miles from Omar's office is a village of former nomads, settled on land illegally carved out of the desert and largely ignored by army, police and officials, even though it is exactly the kind of place that could hold the seeds of their undoing.
Sand dunes nudged the outskirts of the settlement, camels grazed on thorny shrubs, and everywhere we received the same neutral stares and polite, shut-down answers. No one had seen the Taliban and security was excellent, although the Afghan army and police had not visited for months.
"I would recognise anyone with a weapon, but I haven't seen anybody," said Maulavi Ghulam Khan, one of the elders of the village, gesturing across the empty space in front of his home. "Can you ask the government to give us identity cards?" he pleaded when the marines asked if they could help. "They say we shouldn't be here even though we pay tax."
Marines suspected Haji Ghaffour had seen the Taliban. His mud and corrugated iron shack, festooned with plastic beads and tinsel and stacked with everything from washing powder to canned food, was one of the few places villagers could spend what little cash they might scratch from their salt-plagued fields. But not in afghanis, the national currency. Ghaffour was away and a son manning the shop demanded payment for chewing gum in Pakistani rupees, cash from across the nearby border where insurgents find sanctuary when not fighting on home turf.
The marines scanned the young man's fingerprints and irises for entry in a biometric database, where they found he was registered under four different names, with possible links to Taliban attacks.
But there was nothing firm enough for an arrest, so he walked away with just a warning. "We're watching you," one marine shouted after him, as he turned his back and rejoined a group of wary friends gathered outside the shop. Rampant corruption
Mistrust has grown from years of watching rampant corruption corrode government and security forces, the cynical manipulation and accidental triggering of ethnic and tribal tensions, and the difficulty of finding decent officials.
Garmsir is no exception, and this autumn the police, the army and the civilian government were all grappling with serious problems of capacity, competence or community relations.
Omar himself is the smart and affable son of an influential local elder who went into politics over his family's objections about the dangers, knows the district intimately and came second nationwide in a national civil service exam for district governors.
But he is officially only deputy to a 26-year old who disappeared to Kabul, embroiled in legal problems related to a team of "private bodyguards" he employed. The missing governor is just the most senior in a group of largely invisible district officials who Afghan and US sources said are keen to cash their pay cheques but unwilling to live in Garmsir.
"Improving governance in Helmand remains a challenge," a US government watchdog said in a recent report that warned the central government was not providing enough support in rural areas. "Corrupt hiring practices have allowed for many incompetent directors to remain in charge of the provincial and district officials."
The Afghan army, normally the most respected arm of government, is at loggerheads with Garmsir's elders because a sergeant attempted to elope with a 15-year-old girl whose father had promised her to a much older man.
Blowse said the incident was a temporary storm that overshadowed the army's impressive competence and independence. But it was a reminder of the language and cultural tensions that can hamper Afghan soldiers.
"They are not too happy about being stationed down here for the most part, and they view these people as inferior to them, culturally speaking," said Captain Andrew Yager, an adviser to Garmsir's commander, Lieutenant colonel Ghulam Mustaba. He praised the army's handling of a case that could easily have sparked violence.
Without doubt the biggest long-term security risk in Garmsir is the police. "I'd say we focus 90% of our effort on the police at this point, because I think the army has gotten to a point where they can sustain themselves, they can operate, they have depth to their leadership," said Blowse.
Just over a year ago, the district commander was taken out by a Taliban bomb, possibly with insider help. After two short-term replacements, a permanent commander arrived with a reputation for graft and within weeks his teenage "teaboy" had shot dead three marines.
That came as insider attacks by Afghan police and soldiers were rising nationwide. This year more than 60 foreigners have been killed by men they were trying to train or support, smashing the trust that is so critical to efforts to build up the Afghan security forces.
Mutual confidence in Garmsir has not been helped by the arrival of the latest district chief with a recoilless rifle, an armour-piercing weapon. The only armoured vehicles in Garmsir are the hulking MRAPs – mine resistant ambush protected trucks – driven by US marines, but the commander shrugged off all marine questions about the weapon's origin or purpose.
Nato and US influence over the police and army is also ebbing as they cut back on generous funds that for years paid for everything from 24-hour electricity to sunshades, in a bid to force an improvement in Afghan logistics systems.
"The last unit that was how they got things done, they were like, 'Hey, we'll give you this, and I need you to do this, this and this for me,'" said Lieutenant David Daugherty, commander of the team advising the police in Garmsir. "When we got here we didn't have the authority or money, or resources to give them anything; all we came with was experience and intangible stuff which wasn't good enough for them, so it was harder to influence them to do things."
The problems of Garmsir are not isolated or local. The police in many areas are corrupt and ineffective – so much so that in a recent poll about half of Afghans said they would be afraid to encounter a policeman. Dozens of district governor posts across the country sit empty. Tactical decision
Even the hard-won security improvements in Garmsir may not be entirely what they seem. There have been huge sacrifices by marines and their Afghan partners that have seriously diminished Taliban influence there, but the insurgent group may also have made a strategic decision to limit fighting in the district to keep up pressure in other areas.
They appear to be using Garmsir as a supply route to more volatile areas such as Sangin, where they initiate more fighting – kinetics in military jargon – said Lieutenant Carter Harris. Some districts in northern Helmand are among the most violent in Afghanistan, accounting for a high proportion of fighting, deaths and injuries nationwide.
"The Taliban seems willing to limit kinetics in Garmsir [because] there are lots of ratlines up north," Harris explained in company headquarters, set up in the shell of an agricultural college built by US engineers several decades ago, when they had more ambitious dreams for Afghanistan.
"The south is desert, so this to all extents and purposes is the border with Pakistan for them. They are able to move men and material north to more kinetic AOs [areas of operation], like Kajaki and Kandahar."
The insurgents may also just have taken a tactical pause to let enemies with more equipment and firepower than the Afghan police and army leave the battlefield.
Where once there were more than 60 marine bases, some with just a handful of men, that formed a chain of security dotted through Garmsir, now there are just two foreign camps, and those will probably be gone within a year as Nato countries rush to get their troops home.
The Taliban already make homemade bombs in sizes that will leave a US vehicle (mine-resistant, ambush-protected) largely unharmed but can rip apart a police ranger. And there are still Taliban threats and assassinations on prominent civilians, bombs in the roads and assaults at night.
Data from the Nato-led coalition shows "enemy-initiated attacks" – the main statistic they use publicly to assess violence – are down from 2011, but still higher than in 2009.
Senior commanders in Kabul last year were still talking about "reversing the momentum of the insurgency". On the ground troops are much more sanguine about what has been bought with foreign lives and money – a chance for the Afghan government, people and security forces to fight the Taliban themselves, without overwhelming odds against them, if they want to.
"They have the ability at this point to choose their future, that has been given to them," said Blowse. "It's their choice from there, but at least they have that choice."
Lawmakers Summon Ministers of Underspent Budgets
TOLOnews.com By Saleha Soadat Wednesday, 12 December 2012
Afghan lawmakers on Wednesday agreed to summon 11 ministers who have not spent more than 50 percent of their ministry's budget to answer before parliament, describing them as 'incompetent'.
The 11 ministries with so-called underspent budgets include, Energy and Water, Education, Counter Narcotics, Economy, Commerce, Defense, Interior, Higher Education, Information and Culture, Urban Development, and Mines and Industries.
"Those who want to summon the incompetent ministers should raise the green card," First Vice Speaker of the Afghan Parliament Abdul Zaher Qadir said, with most lawmakers raising the green in favour of the summons.
MPs voiced anger over the failure to spend the budgets, with one saying they were "playing with Afghanistan's destiny".
"Those ministers are taking the country towards disaster and are thieves. They should not be only summoned but also dismissed," Kandahar MP Mohammad Naim Lalai said.
However, some ministers criticised talk of dismissing the ministers saying that the country's current situation would not allow for a handful of ministers to be removed from their positions.
"Consider the current situation of the country: we have elections and if 15 or 20 ministers are removed together it will be a disaster for the country," Kapisa MP Mohammad Iqbal Safi said.
An MP from western Herat province Qazi Nazir Ahmad Hanafi said that such a decision will go against the Afghan constitution.
"This decision you are making is against the constitution and internal procedures of the parliament," he said.
The MPs also said that some of the ministries have spent their development budgets over their normal budgets which is against the law.
Turkey Pledges Peace Support, Allow Taliban Office in Ankara
TOLOnews.com By Shakeela Ahbrimkhil Wednesday, 12 December 2012
The Government of Turkey has pledged its support for Afghanistan's peace negotiations, saying in a Wednesday meeting with President Hamid Karzai that it is committed to helping the process including hosting a Taliban office in the country.
The opening of a political office for the Taliban in Turkey's capital city of Ankara was the main theme of Karzai's second day in meetings with Pakistani and Turkish leaders.
Afghanistan High Peace Council also threw its support behind the Taliban office in Ankara, and requested the Pakistan government to truly give attention to Afghanistan's demands.
"Pakistanis should know that they can get some issues resolved from the peaceful way rather than war and fighting. Our advice to Pakistan is to use these kinds of meetings and forget about making Afghanistan their colony after the withdrawal of foreign forces from Afghanistan," High Peace Council deputy chair Attaullah Ludin said.
While the details of the discussions between Afghanistan, Pakistan and Turkey in Ankara have not been fully disclosed as yet, it is understood that Karzai gave some evidence and documents to his Pakistani counterpart about Pakistani involvement in the plot to assassinate Afghan spy chief Asadullah Khalid by suicide attack.
Some Afghan lawmakers do not believe that Pakistan will cooperate with the investigation into the attack.
"Repeatedly the President has talked with Pakistan officials, and now President Karzai gave the documents. But they will still not cooperate," Herat MP Ahmad Reza Khoshak Watandost said.
Kabul MP Sayed Hussain Anwari said he did not understand why such discussions were held outside Afghanistan.
"If the government, Taliban and regional countries honestly want to bring peace and secure Afghanistan then negotiations should be inside Afghanistan," he said.
Karzai has presented evidence that allegedly shows the Khalid plot was planned in Pakistan's city of Quetta and the bomber was a Pakistani.
Khalid survived last Thursday's attack in Kabul but sustained some injuries to the lower half of his body. He has been moved abroad to receive treatment.
The Taliban claimed responsibility for the attack but Karzai dismissed their claim saying that the attack was too professional to have been the work of the militant group.
The trilateral meeting is the seventh year the trio have met in Ankara.
Afghan Saffron Tops 16 Nations at World Exhibition
TOLOnews.com By Zabihullah Jhanmal Wednesday, 12 December 2012
Afghanistan's saffron has been awarded first place for quality among 16 countries at the International Saffron Exhibition held in France, officials said Wednesday.
"At the exhibition which was held in France, Afghan saffron got the first position among sixteen saffron producers including Iran," the head of Mahtab Saffron Company Mohammad Ibrahim said.
Afghanistan's climate is suitable for the cultivation of saffron and its quality has long been considered one of the best among all other saffron productions around the world.
According to officials, if good care is taken, the saffron onion in Afghanistan can produce up to 14 leaves, while saffron from other countries can produce up to five leaves in one plant.
Afghanistan's Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock officials said that they are working on finding better international markets for the Afghan saffron.
"Even though saffron production is still in its primary stages and we are promoting it, its harvests have been good. We are also trying to find more international markets for this product," Promotion Department chief at the Afghan Agriculture Ministry Hakam Khan Habibi said.
Saffron has increasingly been touted as a viable alternative to opium production for farmers looking for lucrative returns in Afghanistan, with its high sale price in international markets.
The latest recognition of its quality at the world exhibition is likely to drive demand and prices even higher.
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What a 1970s ‘Lonely Planet’ travel guide said about Afghanistan
By Max Fisher, December 13, 2012 The Washington Post
Afghanistan’s history since 1979, when the Soviet Union invaded to prop up a sympathetic government, has been dark and often violent. The Soviet army’s 1989 withdrawal was followed by a civil war and domination by warlords. That in turn gave rise to the Taliban, which seized power shortly before it was toppled by a U.S. invasion in retaliation for the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.
But, before all that, the country was a remote and poor but not-so-bad place. Attesting to the pre-1979 Afghanistan and how much it has changed is this excerpt from a 1970s Lonely Planet travel book, which described the country as “vastly appealing.” The country’s biggest problems at the time, according to the excerpt unearthed by a Reddit user, were slow travel, “aloof” locals, and “banditry.” Here’s the travel guide’s introduction to Afghanistan:
A vastly appealing country – endless empty deserts, soaring barren mountains, historic old towns and ruins and best of all the aloof and detaches Afghanis. How else can you describe them, they clearly realise that no amount of money or mere material possessions could ever compensate for the unfortunate handicap of not being born in their fine country. Unhappily Afghanistan is one of those countries where the collision between a long established lifestyle and a new influx of tourists has not always been harmonious. It is place where some of the dregs of the overland trip (and there are some) seem to settle. It is also a country to be careful in, banditry still runs in many veins.
Afghanistan analysts have sometimes told me that the country used to be a major world destination for hiking and nature sightseeing, which may explain the “influx of tourists” that the guidebook describes. If you’re looking for more of pre-1979 Afghanistan and its very different, surprisingly Western feel, you can do little better than this great Foreign Policy slideshow, “Once Upon a Time in Afghanistan.”
Peace and Stability in Afghanistan: The Role of Neighbours
Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses By Gurmeet Kanwal December 13, 2012
At the July 2012 Tokyo summit, donor nations pledged USD 16 billion up to 2015 for the socio-economic development of Afghanistan. The 70 nations that participated in the summit sent a strong message to the effect that Afghanistan will not be left to fend for itself after the withdrawal of NATO-ISAF forces. However, strong messages are not enough if these are not followed by strong measures in critical areas.
No plans have yet been made to put in place post–exit arrangements to supplement the capabilities of the Afghan security forces. The Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) are unlikely to be in a position to assume independent responsibility for security by end-2014. The completion of the drawdown will create a security vacuum, particularly in the south-eastern and southern provinces, and the Taliban are likely to fill it. Unless Afghanistan’s key regional neighbours, including India, Iran and Pakistan, contribute meaningfully to the efforts to stabilise the country, instead of pursuing narrow national agendas, Afghanistan may plunge into a civil war. This will reverse the gains made in socio-economic development over the last 11 years.
Capacity of ANSF
The Afghan National Army (ANA) now numbers 195,000 troops and the strength of the Afghan National Police (ANP) has gone up to 149,208. The ANSF (ANA plus ANP) are being increasingly called upon to assume responsibility for security in districts from which the NATO-ISAF troops are gradually withdrawing. While the number of ANSF personnel is growing steadily, they are not yet operationally and logistically ready to assume independent charge of security operations in areas vacated by NATO-ISAF troops.
Besides numbers, ANSF personnel lack the requisite weapons and equipment, and are inadequately trained and motivated – desertions and incidents of fratricide are fairly frequent. The standards of junior leadership – the bedrock of counter-insurgency operations – are far from satisfactory. Also, the ANA lacks critical logistics support such as helicopters and high-mobility vehicles and is completely dependent on the NATO-ISAF logistics and casualty evacuation system.
Though the May 2012 Chicago Summit reaffirmed the commitment of the international community towards a continuing partnership with the government of Afghanistan after 2014 and pledged to continue to provide developmental assistance, it did not address the issue of leaving behind a security vacuum and the role that key regional actors could play. This glaring omission will prove costly in the long term for regional peace and security.
Likely Impact
The NATO-ISAF withdrawal without supplementing the fighting capabilities of the ANSF will lead to an unstable security situation. Some of Afghanistan’s regional neighbours will promote their core national interests and compete for influence by supporting the warring factions. Western and regional players will need to accommodate Pakistan’s core interests in seeking a lasting solution to the Afghan conflict. Instability will lead to a rise in Islamist fundamentalism and create conditions for the al Qaeda to make a comeback.
The NATO-ISAF strategy to “clear-hold-transfer-exit” has only partially succeeded in achieving its political and military goals. The foremost area of concern is the security deficit that is gradually emerging as the process of drawdown of forces is gathering momentum. The security deficit can be filled to a large extent by Afghanistan’s neighbours if they can be persuaded to accept the responsibility, including by contributing troops to a UN-mandated peacekeeping force. However, the Central Asian Republics (CARs), China, India, Iran, Pakistan and Russia have divergent agendas. In particular, India, Iran and Pakistan need to work together to contribute to peace and stability as they are the key players in the region.
Divergent Agendas of the Regional Players
India has historically had friendly ties with Afghanistan and wishes to see a stable government installed in Kabul that does not lean excessively on any neighbour. India had supported the Northern Alliance during its operations against the oppressive Taliban regime. Despite its own economy facing sluggish growth, India has invested heavily in Afghan reconstruction and development. India has contributed USD 1.2 billion so far, and has pledged additional funds to take the total commitment to USD 2 billion. The funds have been spent on road construction and building projects approved by the Afghan government and the local communities. India is also providing training assistance to Afghan administrators, teachers, medical staff and officer cadets, but only within India. Though the Indian private sector has invested only USD 25 million so far, this is set to change as new investments worth USD 10-12 billion are in the pipeline.
India’s sustained help and abiding commitment have not received due recognition. The Government of India does not support the idea of sending troops to Afghanistan at present. However, it would be in India’s interest to do so if invited; an unstable security situation in Afghanistan is not in India’s interest. Under the right conditions – UN flag, viable logistics support – it may be possible to persuade India to send up to one infantry division (15,000 troops) to supplement the ANSF. At the very least, due to the Indian Army’s immense experience in counter-insurgency operations and cultural affinities that make it easier to train new recruits, India could be invited to train ANA personnel in Afghanistan itself. This will lead to larger numbers of ANA personnel being trained simultaneously than is the case at present.
Iran’s wait-and-watch policy, which has been in place since December 2001, is continuing unchanged. Iran is concerned about the flow of fundamentalist terrorism and narcotics from Afghanistan. It also fears the exodus of a large number of refugees if the security situation deteriorates rapidly after the exit of NATO-ISAF troops, even though Iran would be happy to see their backs.
Iran is also under pressure due to US sanctions over its quest to acquire nuclear weapons and fears a joint US-Israel attack on its nuclear installations. Under the circumstances, Iran would not like instability in Afghanistan to add to its strategic challenges and is more likely to cooperate rather than confront the international community in Afghanistan. However, Iran is unlikely to join a UN peacekeeping force and for its part the international community would much rather do without Iranian troops in such a force. Iran could contribute by allowing the use of the road from Chahbahar port to Zaranj to open up a new route for logistics supplies. Such a move will substantially reduce the present dependence on the two land routes that pass through Pakistan’s Quetta and Peshawar. However, this can happen only if the United States mends its fences with Iran.
The Pakistan Army and the ISI are continuing to support militant groups like the Haqqani network that are fighting the NATO-ISAF forces by providing safe haven to them. This is so even as the Pakistan Army itself faces well coordinated attacks by Pakistani Taliban like the TTP and the TNSM from across the border. The continuing stand-off in US-Pakistan relations has led to hardened attitudes on both sides, with the United States continuing with its strategy of trans-border drone strikes to eliminate the al Qaeda leadership and Pakistan refusing to launch operations against the TTP in North Waziristan.
Pakistan still seeks ‘strategic depth’ in Afghanistan and would prefer to have a pliable regime in Kabul when the NATO-ISAF mission ends in 2014. Pakistan does not support the Afghan reconciliation process – unless it is conducted on Pakistan’s terms – since a successful outcome will reduce Pakistan’s role in conflict resolution. Pakistan has failed to appreciate that continuing insurgency in Afghanistan, especially close to its border, will fuel instability in its own northwest and further destabilise a volatile part of the country when its economy is in ruins and the political situation is spiralling out of control. Pakistan seeks to limit India’s influence in Afghanistan and opposes the induction of Indian troops as well as in-situ training. However, the recent improvement in relations with India may lead to Pakistan being willing to discuss the role that India might play in future in contributing to Afghanistan’s socio-economic development.
Russia and the CARs remain key players and have a huge stake in Afghanistan’s future stability. The agreement signed by Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan with the NATO-ISAF forces in June 2012 to permit military hardware being transported out of Afghanistan as part of the draw-down is a major concession and signals their desire to make a meaningful contribution to conflict resolution. Russia signed a similar agreement in early-July 2012. However, Russia and the CARs are unlikely to go so far as to join the fight against the Taliban by contributing troops to a stabilisation force.
Good governance, including a transparent system for the delivery of justice; sustained socio-economic development; and, a secure environment for the first two to flourish, are the three pillars of a successful counter-insurgency campaign. In Afghanistan, the post-ISAF security environment is likely to spin out of control if supplementary security arrangements are not conceived soon and put in place quickly with the help of its neighbours.
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