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Audit Says Kabul Bank Began as ‘Ponzi Scheme’
New York Times By MATTHEW ROSENBERG November 26, 2012
KABUL, Afghanistan - Kabul Bank became Afghanistan’s largest financial institution by offering the promise of modern banking to people who had never had a saving or checking account. What it really dealt in was modern theft: “From its very beginning,” according to a confidential forensic audit of Kabul Bank, “the bank was a well-concealed Ponzi scheme.”
Afghan and American officials had for years promoted Kabul Bank as a prime example of how Western-style banking was transforming a war-ravaged economy. But the audit, prepared this year for Afghanistan’s central bank by the Kroll investigative firm, gives new details of how the bank instead was institutionalizing fraud that reached into the hundreds of millions of dollars and obliterated Afghans’ trust after regulators finally seized the bank in August 2010 and the theft was revealed.
Going further than previous reports, the audit asserts that Kabul Bank had little reason to exist other than to allow a narrow clique tied to President Hamid Karzai’s government to siphon riches from depositors, who were the bank’s only substantial source of revenue.
At one point, Kroll’s investigators found 114 rubber stamps for fake companies used to give forged documents a more legitimate look. And the auditing firms used by the bank never took issue with loan books that were “almost entirely fraudulent,” Kroll found, recommending that the Afghan government explore suing the last such auditor, A.F. Ferguson & Co., a private Pakistani firm with a franchise under PricewaterhouseCoopers.
When Afghan regulators, aided by American officials, first discovered the extent of the fraud at the bank in the summer of 2010, “we never imagined that the criminality was as deep as it was, that it was so widespread and that it included high-ranking officials and their relatives,” said Abdul Qadeer Fitrat, at the time the governor of the Bank of Afghanistan, the country’s central bank.
“At the beginning, I received information from the U.S. Embassy that maybe $150 million or $200 million is gone in bad loans to powerful people,” he said. The number soon climbed close to $900 million, though “we did not know who took the loans and that they were all tied to a few individuals.”
What Kroll’s audit found is that on Aug. 31, 2010, the day the Bank of Afghanistan seized Kabul Bank, more than 92 percent of the lender’s loan portfolio — $861 million, or roughly 5 percent of Afghanistan’s annual economic output at the time — had gone to 19 related people and companies, according to the audit.
Among the largest beneficiaries were a brother of Mr. Karzai and a brother of First Vice President Muhammad Qasim Fahim who each owned stakes in the bank that had been bought with loans from the bank, according to the audit and regulatory officials. For their part, both have insisted that they never took part in any fraud at the lender.
Reached for comment, Mr. Karzai’s spokesman, Aimal Faizi, stressed that the president considered the audit incomplete: Mr. Karzai still believes Kroll has to find out where all the missing money has gone, to which countries it was sent and to which accounts if the firm wants the report to be seen as credible, Mr. Faizi said.
The New York Times obtained a copy of the 277-page audit report, which Afghan and Western officials have confirmed was the one Kroll prepared.
The two men that Afghan prosecutors, Western officials and the Kroll audit accuse of profiting most from the fraud were the bank’s principal owners: Sherkhan Farnood, its chairman and a former World Series of Poker Europe winner, and his former bodyguard, Khalil Fruzi, who served as the bank’s chief executive.
Working with the bank’s executives, they devised simple, yet effective, schemes to fool weak and reluctant regulators, and the Americans who were advising them, the audit says.
The owners kept two sets of books, and hid loans to themselves and their shareholders by taking them in the names of friends, relatives and even domestic servants, according to the audit and Afghan officials. They grouped related loans together to better keep track of who owed what. Hundreds of millions of dollars in illicit loans were routed to Dubai through a money exchange controlled by Mr. Farnood, who founded the bank.
Kabul Bank employed people to forge documents for fictitious companies, which were then audited by accounting firms that appear to have been complicit, according to Kroll. That is where the rubber stamps came in: they bore the names of those false companies, like Abdul Mahmood Trading and Ali Jan Abdul Hadi Ltd., to lend an air of respectability to fake documents.
Toward the end, Mr. Fruzi even expensed foreign shopping sprees at stores like Louis Vuitton and Versace in Dubai and New Delhi. Mr. Farnood was snapping up villas in Dubai with bank money, though he has maintained they were investments gone bad, nothing more.
Bailing out depositors cost the cash-strapped Afghan government more than $825 million, and Afghan and Western officials say that only between $200 million and $400 million, depending on how assets are valued, has so far been recovered from shareholders.
For many Afghans, the scandal surrounding Kabul Bank, a linchpin of the economic order established here by Americans and their allies, has cemented the opinion that the United States brought crony capitalism, not free markets, to Afghanistan. The audit is likely to reinforce that view while raising potentially troubling questions about who is being prosecuted here in connection with the scandal, and who is not.
The United States and its allies have pressed hard for prosecutions, threatening to cut aid if no action was taken. The completion of the forensic audit, which was financed by international donors and delivered in March, was another demand by the international community, as was a separate report, due later this week, by an Afghan government-funded but largely independent corruption watchdog commission composed of Afghan and foreign experts.
Mr. Farnood and Mr. Fruzi top the list of 22 defendants charged so far, and both are on trial in Kabul. Many others on the list are Kabul Bank executives who are accused of helping to carry out fraud, though it is unclear whether they personally profited.
Few officials have any problem with those prosecutions. But there are questions about the charges brought by Afghan prosecutors against a few officials at Afghanistan’s central bank. Western officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, expressed worries that those cases appeared to be intended to end further investigation into Kabul Bank. Kroll has said it has no evidence that the Bank of Afghanistan’s staff members were complicit in Kabul Bank’s collapse.
In the most prominent such case, the former chairman of the Bank of Afghanistan, Abdul Qadeer Fitrat, has been indicted primarily for failing to warn the Afghan government about Kabul Bank and concealing the fraud there — an accusation that one Western official called “laughable.” Several Western and Afghan officials insist that Mr. Fitrat had actively pressed inquiries of Kabul Bank, and believed he had been indicted in order to scare him off. He fled the country last year.
Even Mr. Farnood said Mr. Fitrat had done nothing wrong: “Fitrat was the one person who was not involved in any bribing,” he said in a telephone interview.
The situation was particularly galling, the officials said, because apart from Mr. Farnood and Mr. Fruzi, the other “high-value beneficiaries” — each of whom still owes at least $5 million to the bank, Kroll estimates — have yet to face any legal action. That group includes Mahmood Karzai, the president’s brother, and Haseen Fahim, the vice president’s brother.
In an interview, Mahmood Karzai said he had repaid all the money he originally owed, an amount he put at $5.3 million. He insisted that Kroll had miscalculated and included assets he never owned, like a villa in Dubai, when it tallied his liability at $30.5 million.
He called Kroll “a piece of puke” and said it had relied too heavily on evidence provided by Mr. Farnood, who in the summer of 2010 began cooperating with American officials and, subsequently, Afghan investigators after a dispute with his fellow shareholders.
Neither Mr. Fahim nor Mr. Fruzi responded to phone messages seeking comment.
Kabul Bank did serve some legitimate functions — for instance, the United States paid the salaries of hundreds of thousands of soldiers, police and teachers through it.
But many of the bank’s practices seemed tailor-made to lure depositors by any means available. One popular gimmick detailed by the audit was known as a Bakht account, which offered those who opened them a chance to win houses, cars and jewelry at glitzy prize drawings.
The only real winners, however, were the bank’s senior managers and their friends, the audit found. The new depositors’ money was used principally “to provide free financing to the other business interests of senior management and a group of connected persons.”
Alissa J. Rubin and Sharifullah Sahak contributed reporting.
Afghans Worry About Iran's Growing Influence
Sharon Behn VOA News November 27, 2012
ISLAMABAD — As the United States negotiates the scope of its presence in Afghanistan after combat forces leave in 2014, Afghan former officials and analysts are getting concerned that neighboring Iran is also seeking to shape Afghanistan's future.
In the eyes of Ahmad Saeedi, a political analyst and former diplomat, Tehran’s influence is becoming pronounced.
"Afghanistan is under the siege of Iranian influence. Nowadays we have six pro-Iranian TV channels, 21 radio stations, and a large number of publications that appear in Kabul that are pro-Iranian," he says, adding, "The cultural war is more important than war led by guns."
Countering Western influence
Khalid Mafton, a U.S. educated political analyst living in Kabul, says Iran's strategy is aimed at both bolstering its support among Afghanistan's minority Shi'ites and countering U.S. and Western influence in Afghanistan.
He says that Iran's long term agenda "is to have some people who support the Iranian regime and culture in the society, and in the short and medium term is to somehow hurt the American military forces in Afghanistan."
This warning has particular resonance for Washington given its experience in Iraq, where pro-Iranian Shi'ites came to power following the U.S. military intervention.
Regional ambitions
In some ways, the relationship between Afghanistan and Iran is natural. More than a million Afghans sought refuge from the war in Afghanistan in Iran, and they are now drifting back after living there for years. And, some are bringing Iranian culture and religious beliefs with them.
Afghanistan also shares a long border with Iran and is heavily reliant on it for fuel imports, which either transit Iran or come directly over the border. And the two countries have a fair amount of trade, with Iranian exports to Afghanistan totaling some $2 billion a year.
But Davood Moradian, former chief adviser to President Hamid Karzai's foreign minister, says there are three facets to Iran's objectives in Afghanistan. There is the Iran "which has legitimate interests, Iran which has an ideological preference, and Iran which has regional ambition. And two of the three are causing problems in Afghanistan."
Analysts also believe that Iran's intelligence services - as well as Pakistan's intelligence services - are active in Afghanistan. Jawed Kohistani, a former Afghan military officer and intelligence official, says the security pact currently under negotiation between Kabul and Washington should address relations with Iran, as well as with Pakistan.
The religious factor
There are also concerns that Iran's ideological ambitions will create friction between Afghanistan's majority Sunni and minority Shia, and has sparked a tussle for influence from Iran's ideological rival, Saudi Arabia.
In western Kabul, one physical example of Iran’s influence is the Khatam al-Nabeyeen Islamic University. The complex, which also includes a madrassah and student housing, is funded with the help of Iran and teaches Iran's version of Islam.
Saudi Arabia is reportedly ready to fund the building of a large $100 million mosque and school complex in Kabul, where the Saudi brand of Sunni Islam will be offered to thousands of students and followers.
Saudi Arabia's Wahabbi version of Islam is the one adopted by al Qaida's Osama bin Laden and the conservative Taliban, who ruled Afghanistan and gave safe haven to al-Qaida until the 2001 U.S. invasion. Saudi Arabia has rejected all ties with the Taliban.
President Karzai calls for investment in Afghanistan
KABUL, Nov. 27 (Xinhua)-- Afghanistan's President Hamid Karzai on Tuesday called on national and international investors to invest in the conflict-ridden country.
"Any country, any company and anyone is welcomed if invest in Afghanistan to help take this country towards more progress," President Karzai said in conference here to encourage investment in Afghanistan.
He also said that China has already began investment in Afghanistan and the government would also welcome Iran, Pakistan and India if do so.
Allaying the concerns over the withdrawal of NATO-led forces from Afghanistan in 2014, the Afghan leader pointed out that the security situation in the country is improving by each passing day and "there is no need to worry".
However, he accused western media of reporting baseless propaganda, saying certain western media has been reporting that Afghanistan would slide towards instability in 2014 and Afghan president would declare emergency situation.
The president lashed at all such reports, adding that Afghanistan will be further stabilized, there will be no emergency situation, the presidential election will be held as per scheduled and the country would have new president in 2014.
About strategic cooperation with U.S., the Afghan president stated that Afghanistan wants to ensure its national interests in any pact, saying Afghanistan wants U.S. to support and equip its national security forces, to build its canals and irrigation systems and to launch development projects.
The president later inaugurated an industrial exhibition which put on display the national industrial products.
Briefing the audience, Wafiullah Iftikhar, director of Afghan Investment Support Agency (AISA), a government-backed body to encourage investment, said that 553 million U.S. dollars had been invested in Afghanistan so far in 2012, showing 20 percent increase against last year.
Presently around 3,000 small and medium plants, according to officials, are operating in the country which producing light items such as biscuits, macaroni, tissue papers, medicines, soaps, washing liquid, drinking water, juice, soft drinks, etc.
Afghan forces kill 8 Taliban fighters
MEHTERLAM, Afghanistan, Nov. 27 (Xinhua) -- Afghan forces backed by the NATO-led troops killed eight Taliban militants in Laghman province 90 km east of Kabul on Tuesday, spokesman for provincial administration said.
"In the operation launched early morning in some villages outside provincial capital Mehterlam, and lasted for a few hours, eight Taliban rebels were killed and four others injured," Sarhadi Zawak told Xinhua.
There were no casualties on security forces, he said.
Meantime, Taliban purported spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid in talks with media via telephone from unknown location confirmed the fighting but added only one Taliban fighter was killed in the firefight.
As Complaints Grow, Afghanistan Promises School-System Review
By Ron Synovitz and Zarif Nazar November 27, 2012 Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
Sheila, a 15-year-old Afghan girl, has spent years attending a refugee-camp school on the north side of Kabul. But she still does not know how to write her own name.
"I am supposed to study the Koran, Dari, mathematics, Pashto, the English language -- altogether I am enrolled in 11 subjects," she says. "But there are no lessons at my school because the teachers come for just a few minutes. Then they leave. So we sit there doing nothing."
Yunis, the father of two boys who attend an Afghan public school in the northeastern province of Takhar, has a similar story. "My complaint is about the entire education system in Afghanistan -- the teachers, the administrators, and the government. We send our sons to school but they aren't learning anything in first or second grade, or even by the 12th grade," he says.
"Even students in the 12th grade are unable to write their names. The Education Ministry is paying the teachers a salary but the children are learning nothing."
RFE/RL's Radio Free Afghanistan has received such complaints from students and parents across the country.
In rural areas, a common corruption allegation is that the relatives or friends of powerful militia commanders are thrown into classrooms to collect a teacher's salary -- despite being unqualified to teach.
Deputy Education Minister Mohammad Sediq Patman says the government in Kabul is aware of the growing complaints. "We can't accept this criticism for the entire country -- that there are students who can't read or write after years in school," he says. "But this problem does exist in many schools and districts."
Systemic Reform Needed
Patman says that his ministry is preparing to examine the entire school system of 8 million students -- from kindergarten through 12th grade -- to determine what reforms are needed to modernize the curriculum and improve the quality of education. The review should cover some 14,000 schools across the country that employ about 190,000 teachers, one-third of them women.
"From the first grade through the 12th grade, there needs to be improvement. The standards of the 21st century need to be introduced to our education system. The current system is designed to train people to become bureaucratic clerks. But right now there is no need for clerks," Patman tells RFE/RL. "What we really need are people who are familiar with technology and practical theory. In the West, computers or other technology do the work of 100 people. That's what we need here."
British media recently quoted senior officials there who acknowledged that London had spent millions of dollars to build schools in rural parts of Helmand Province during the past decade, only to find that the Afghan government may not be able to keep many of them open due to a lack of teachers and funds.
Richard Stagg, Britain's ambassador to Afghanistan, told "The Guardian" newspaper recently that it was wrong to focus on "the physical and visible rather than the human capital" needed in Afghanistan over the long term.
Focus On Teachers
Indeed, Afghan officials say that for many schools in volatile areas it is impossible to find qualified teachers willing or able to work for the normal teacher's salary of about $100 per month. In districts where the Taliban holds sway, potential teachers also worry about death threats from militants.
The Education Ministry this year offered a monthly salary of more than $1,000 for qualified teachers willing to work in the Taliban strongholds of Kandahar and Oruzgan provinces. Despite a chance to earn 10 times the normal salary, Patman says no qualified teachers stepped forward to accept the offers.
The German government has spent tens of millions of dollars to fund basic education and vocational training in Afghanistan since 2002. In a 2010 report, Germany recognized that only a small fraction of active teachers in Afghanistan had gone through a solid education and teacher-training program.
As a result, Germany is now focusing more on initiatives to train teachers in several provinces. In Kabul, construction also began in early November on a German-funded center to train teachers for professional and technical institutes.
For its part, the Afghan government says it wants to recruit 11,000 new teachers this year and to train another 48,000 secondary-school graduates to become teachers.
'A Waste Of Money'
The Afghan government also funds teacher-training seminars in provincial areas. But some who have attended those seminars say precious money is being wasted.
One middle-school science teacher in Konduz Province, who did not want to be named, tells RFE/RL that an Afghan-funded seminar now under way in Konduz began this month with much fanfare but deteriorated into a useless exercise when it was time to focus on training teachers.
"There are no instructors there to train teachers. There are no books or teaching materials or laboratory equipment that is so important for teaching science -- like microscopes," the teacher says. "I assume that a lot of money was spent on this seminar. But there is nothing here. This will not bring good results."
When asked by RFE/RL about the ongoing seminar in Konduz, Patman expressed surprise and concern. He said the Education Ministry would investigate the complaints.
The chequered tale of the Taliban 'boy commander'
BBC News By Bilal Sarwary 26 November 2012
Kunar - When he was barely out of adolescence, Obaidullah Safi was fighting a war in the lawless borderlands of Afghanistan's Kunar province.
Even though he was born in 1992, his story of divided loyalties, betrayals and bounties mirrors those of Afghan power-brokers, commanders and warlords over the centuries.
While his contemporaries were busy chasing girls or playing sport, Obaidullah had the distinction of having fought for - and being imprisoned by - both sides in the Afghan conflict.
He joined the Taliban at 16, waging many fierce battles against Nato-led forces in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Three years later he decided to switch sides and help the government in their war against the Taliban.
When I met him earlier this year, he had been made head of the local police and put in charge of 60 men.
There was a Taliban bounty on his head and he had been informed that the militants "were ready to sacrifice the lives of 50 insurgents" in exchange for his.
But in a further twist to his story, shortly after that interview he was arrested and charged with the murder of an influential tribal elder - the very man who had paid a ransom to free him from his imprisonment by the Taliban years earlier. He denies the charge, saying he has been framed.
Taliban training
A friend in Afghan intelligence arranged for me to meet Obaidullah on a clear day in a house near a remote mountain pass.
After about 45 minutes of waiting in the sweltering heat, a motorbike passed by. The rider had his face and head covered with a scarf, for protection against the dust.
The bike returned after a few moments.
"How are you, Bilal?" the rider said in Pashto as he parked nearby.
Standing only five feet (1.5m) tall but with an athletic physique, Obaidullah looked far older than his 19 years.
"I was studying in grade eight at the local school and dreaming of being an engineer when the Taliban approached me," he said. "My vast knowledge of Kunar's rugged terrain interested them."
Three years ago Kunar was very unstable and the scene of frequent clashes between the Taliban and Nato-led forces.
"Loyalties were divided. Although many people in my village supported the Afghan government, they were fast becoming disillusioned because of a lack of development, poverty and rampant corruption.
"Taliban propaganda was at its peak. And I became its victim," he said.
"When I first met Taliban insurgents, I found them to be credible young men following the path of Sunnah [the recorded words and actions of the Prophet Muhammad]," Obaidullah said. "I was young and raw, and fell in love with their ideology."
Obaidullah was taken to a Taliban camp, given basic training in handling a weapon, and sent to a remote area on the Afghan-Pakistan border to fight.
'Kill or capture'
His skill in battle attracted the attention of the Taliban leadership - in three years he rose through their ranks to become one of their youngest commanders.
Obaidullah says he has fought on both sides of the Afghan-Pakistan border. "Once I raided 12 Pakistani checkposts in a single day," he said.
"With every successful attack on Afghan and Nato forces, I became more and more popular among my fighters," he said.
He even claims to have met the chief of the Pakistani Taliban, Hakimullah Mehsud.
He says that he was eventually put in charge of 250 fighters. According to Afghan intelligence officials in Kunar, his rising popularity among the insurgents was noticed by Nato forces, and his name was soon included in their "kill or capture" list.
But the teenager says he became disillusioned with the "futility" of the insurgency after being imprisoned by the Taliban in 2010 and what he calls their "pretence" that they were safeguarding and furthering Islam.
"In three years, I had begun to understand the true nature of the Taliban's jihad," he said. "I thought they were fighting for Islam. But they were not. They were fighting for themselves or for Pakistan," he said.
Obaidullah says trouble with the Taliban arose when he refused to accept suicide attackers in his group, deeming such a move to be un-Islamic. He also said he had reservations about targeting the local infrastructure.
He was jailed by the Taliban for 47 days in 2010 for being a renegade commander, accused of wrongfully taking ransom money, extortion and working for Afghan intelligence.
"The Taliban's war was only a pretext for destroying Afghanistan," he said.
Chequered reputation
With nine of his most trusted lieutenants, he decided to swap sides.
During his subsequent interrogation, government officials became aware of his knowledge of Kunar's terrain and his understanding of the Taliban's internal workings, and thought his strengths could be put to use.
A few months later, he was made head of the local police, in charge of 60 men, including the nine insurgents who surrendered with him.
But Obaidullah has a chequered reputation among villagers in the area. One elder in the Shroankaray valley in Khas Kunar said: "We all feared him. He was brave, cruel and if he said he was going to do something, he made sure he did it."
Obaidullah admits that he extorted money from tribal elders and rich traders, but insists the money went to senior Taliban leaders.
"I didn't make money for myself," he says.
Shortly after our interview, in October 2012, Obaidullah was arrested and charged with the murder of the influential tribal elder who paid the $52,000 (£32,000) ransom to free him when he was held by the Taliban two years ago.
Obaidullah flatly denies this charge, but he remains in prison in Asadabad in Kunar and is awaiting a hearing at a military court. If he is found guilty, he could face life in prison or the death penalty.
His career on the front line was relatively short-lived. But Obaidullah's shifting loyalties are just one example of the instability inherent in Afghanistan's borderlands.
For Afghan women, gender equality is still wishful thinking
By Abdul Haleem
KABUL, Nov. 27 (Xinhua) -- Even after the end of the brutal rule of the Taliban in Afghanistan, Afghan women today are still yearning for gender equality, something that probably would remain wishful thinking for many years to come.
"Is this our right to beg from dawn to dusk to feed my children? Is this the right of women in Afghanistan to suffer at the hands of men?" asked Shah Begam, a 39-year-old woman beggar, just a day after the world marked the International Day for the Elimination of Violence against Women.
Panhandling alongside a dirty road in Kabul, Begam wondered aloud whether the Afghan government is capable of doing something for women like her who are forced to beg in order to survive.
She said begging itself is an insult for women in a country where the constitution guarantees women's rights.
"My husband married another girl for the second time and threw me out of the house," said Begum, who wears a burka. She added that since the government does not have a social welfare program for poor or abandoned women like her, they have no choice but to beg in the streets.
In the male-dominated and conservative Afghanistan, the International Day for the Elimination of Violence against Women was marked on Sunday.
In her remarks on the occasion, Afghan Minister for Women Affairs Husan Bano Ghazanfar confirmed that 3,500 cases of violence against women were registered in Afghanistan in the first six months of Afghan year which began from March 21, 2012.
Ghazanfar has called on the country's religious scholars to play their a role in eliminating violence against Afghan women, which has been on the rise.
Women in Afghanistan are facing a variety of discrimination and violence ranging from child marriage, forced marriage, rape, polygamy and even "baad," a tribal custom of giving forcibly the hand of a widow or girl to a man from an opposing tribe to settle a dispute and end enmity.
Afghanistan, according to women rights activists, is a challenging country for women to live.
Discrimination against women, particularly in the countryside, is still rampant. A girl can be forced to marry a boy chosen by her parents.
Cases of public execution of women, flogging of women by Taliban militants and powerful tribal leaders have been reported in parts of Afghanistan over the past year.
Najiba, 22, was publicly executed by Taliban militants in Ghorband district of Parwan province a couple of months ago while Sabira was publicly lashed in Jaghori district of Ghazni province by local mullahs months ago after she eloped with her boyfriend.
Although women's rights have seen considerable improvement in Afghanistan over the past 11 years, they still need more years and a long way to achieve equity with men as the rate of literacy among women remains much lower than men.
In some tribal villages, tradition still requires that women, especially young girls, stay at home and be barred from attending school which was what the Taliban ordered during their rule.
"It is an open secret that I have no right in society, every day I am mistreated. I can say that women are a neglected segment here. During the day, I work in other person's house to earn money or beg in the streets and at night I cook for my husband and he often maltreats me. He also prevents my daughters from going to school," another woman beggar said.
David Cameron set to decide on Afghanistan withdrawal timetable
National security council meeting will discuss scale of military pullout and how many personnel will stay on after 2014
The Guardian By Nick Hopkins Tuesday 27 November 2012
David Cameron is expected to rule on the scale and scope of the British military withdrawal from Afghanistan over the next two years when he chairs a meeting on Tuesday of the national security council.
A series of plans will be presented by the chief of the defence staff, General Sir David Richards, and the prime minister will agree in principle the favoured timetable, which will also determine how many British personnel remain in Afghanistan after 2014.
One scenario with widespread military support involves keeping troop numbers stable at 9,000 until September next year, the end of the next "fighting season", and then withdrawing 8,000 personnel over the following 12 months.
That would leave about 1,000 troops in Afghanistan by the end of 2014 for training, logistical support and protecting supply lines. Nato has said it will have ended all combat operations against the Taliban by then.
With reports in the US saying Washington is also nearing a decision on its long-term troop levels, likely to be a "light footprint" of about 10,000 American troops, officials hope Downing Street could be in a position to announce its plans during the traditional ministerial visit to Afghanistan around Christmas.
This would give British forces in Helmand province a much-needed fillip at the end of a year in which military efforts have been overshadowed by a series of so-called green-on-blue attacks, in which members of the Afghan army and police have shot their allies. Fifty-four Nato troops have been killed in such incidents this year, including 13 Britons.
"A number of scenarios will be looked at and it will be down to the prime minister to make the decision," a Whitehall source said. "We have to be in a position to be able to align ourselves with our international partners, particularly the US."
A second national security council meeting next month will give the government a chance to review and refine its plans. The Cabinet Office and the Ministry of Defence said they could not give details about Tuesday's NSC meeting, but officials confirmed that discussions about the size of the UK's footprint in Afghanistan had been under way for some time.
The hold-up was due to the US presidential election and the Obama administration's unwillingness to take any decisions about the 66,000 American troops still in Afghanistan before polling day three weeks ago. However, the outgoing commander in charge of Nato troops in Afghanistan, General John Allen, has prepared detailed advice for the president, and the UK is among nations privately urging Obama to decide as soon as possible.
"We have been waiting almost a year to hear what they want to do," said another British official. "The Americans have the largest force in Afghanistan by far and to a certain extent we have to wait on them, otherwise the pullout could become very disorderly. But it would be fair to say people are getting a little fed-up with the waiting game."
Despite the green-on-blue attacks, British commanders have been positive about the progress made in Helmand, and their advice to ministers has changed over the past six months. Instead of seeking to keep as many troops for as long as possible, they have told ministers that a more gradual "conditions-based withdrawal" is now viable, and in some ways preferable.
In an interview with the Guardian in September, the defence secretary, Philip Hammond, said 52 British military bases and checkpoints had already been closed. He added: "There may be some scope for a little bit more flexibility on the way we draw down, and that is something commanders on the ground are looking at very actively. Talking to senior commanders, you get a clear sense that their view of force levels is evolving in light of their experiences."
The Treasury is known to be pushing for a speedier retreat from Afghanistan, and Cameron could decide to start the timetable next spring, if commanders on the ground agree. The military would be wary of pulling out too many people at the start of the fighting season, but the prime minister has already made clear he does not want a "cliff-edge" withdrawal.
"As Afghan troops take a bigger role we will be able to reduce troop numbers further next year," Cameron said in July. "I don't want to see some cliff edge. I'm confident we are going to have a staged reduction and deliver a safe and secure situation."
In a speech on Monday, Brigadier Doug Chalmers, who has been on four tours to Afghanistan and commanded Task Force Helmand over the summer, said the Afghans were now leading the fight against the Taliban, not the British.
"On this tour it was very much about enabling the Afghan security forces to fight the counter-insurgency," he told an audience at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. "They have very capable commanders with significant combat experience."
One of their best officers, he said, was the Afghan army general Sherin Shah. "He is a strong tactical commander who understands the Afghan insurgency in a way that we [the British] simply never will. I often used to joke about who was the adviser because the roles were often switched."
Chalmers said he knew the insurgents' campaign "had failed tactically because we could hear their conversations and the local nationals were almost oblivious to it". But he admitted the green-on-blue attacks had taken their toll. "It was the greatest challenge that we faced. They were the hardest blows to bear they were the hardest letters to write."
Since 2001, 438 British soldiers and civilians have been killed in Afghanistan, the vast majority since the UK sent troops to Helmand in 2006.
Afghanistan: Another province goes to the Taliban
Logar, a strategic province that neighbors Kabul and is home to an all-important copper mine, is increasingly under Taliban control as NATO sources begin to withdraw.
Global Post By Fazelminallah Qazizai and Chris Sands November 26, 2012
PUL-I-ALAM, Afghanistan - The first sign of the Taliban's growing strength in Logar province comes on the main highway, where culverts have been blown up at regular intervals, each one an ideal place to hide a bomb aimed at passing military convoys.
Next, there is a police post made from a shipping container and surrounded by sandbags. It looks like it has been set on fire and abandoned.
But the definitive proof that the insurgents are in the ascendency here can be found among the residents. Those who are willing to be interviewed are happy to express their admiration for the Taliban, while many others are scared of talking to a journalist.
"If the people didn't support the Taliban, how could they be such a powerful movement like they are now?" said Mohammed Rafiq, a local bookshop manager.
Logar is a short drive to the south of Kabul. In recent years, it has become one of the most dangerous places in Afghanistan.
The situation here is a blueprint for what may lie ahead for large swathes of the country as NATO forces continue to withdraw. Outside the district centers, the government has little influence or backing. The foreign troops are even more unpopular.
A tense atmosphere hangs over Pul-i-Alam, the provincial capital. During a recent visit, a number of pick-up trucks belonging to the national intelligence service were parked in the center of town.
Their presence offered no great comfort to residents, who frequently accuse the security forces of being part of the problem.
Sayed Abdul Wahab is a local high school student who told GlobalPost that even his teachers use Taliban songs as the ringtones on their cell phones.
Aged 18, he is an ethnic Tajik — a section of society not usually associated with sympathy for the insurgents. He openly admitted supporting the Taliban, claiming US troops deliberately target civilians. He accused the police of discriminating against him and other bearded villagers who come into town wearing traditional Afghan clothes.
"This fight is a jihad and everyone knows this and supports this. These people are our oppressors and our enemies, they are not letting us live and be happy," he said.
Last month, four children were killed in a battle between foreign troops and the Taliban in nearby Baraki Barak district. In response, Gen. John Allen, the commander of NATO forces in Afghanistan, quickly offered his "sincerest condolences to the families of the civilians that were killed."
Meanwhile, the rebels are making their own attempts to win hearts and minds. Besides using tactics including suicide attacks, assassinations and kidnappings, they run an informal judicial system that is generally regarded as cleaner and faster than the official courts.
Logar is also a key transit route for insurgents travelling to and from Pakistan along old mountain trails formerly used by the mujahideen against the Soviets in the 1980s.
Haji Sayed Habibullah Husseinyar was a resistance commander then, and is now a tribal elder. Another Tajik, he said a number of different militant factions are active in the area and people "give them food, a place to stay and pray for them" in accordance with Islamic teachings.
“In the government you cannot find a good man — all of them are corrupt,” he said.
Husseinyar claimed that when US forces were searching a village they asked him why people hated them. He replied, “If you want to help us go forward, go back to your homes and send us your engineers, doctors, and teachers, not guns, troops, and tanks.”
As well as being strategically vital, Logar is the location of a multi-billion dollar copper mine project that is seen as an important bellwether for Afghanistan’s long-term economic hopes. In September, Reuters reported that Chinese investors have stopped work on the site due to security concerns.
Anyone here associated with government-backed initiatives or the occupation is at constant risk. Earlier this month, the dead bodies of two Afghans were found near Pul-i-Alam town, with the government offering differing versions of who they were. One official account claimed they had been translators for NATO while another said they had been employees of a contractor working with the Afghan army.
Timor is a taxi driver who travels the 50 minute journey from Kabul to Pul-i-Alam daily. He told GlobalPost the Taliban are active everywhere, including the provincial capital.
He described how a colleague had agreed to take some men to a local military base. Soon after dropping them off he picked up a new passenger who duped him into going to a nearby village, where insurgents were waiting. They beat him and confiscated his car as punishment.
“Security does not exist here. Everyday after 4 p.m. people are not safe inside the town, on the highway or in the villages,” Timor said.
“At around 4 p.m. the Afghan soldiers are leaving the highway and going to their base. Even if you swear on the Quran, they will not come out to help you.”
Fazelminallah Qazizai reported from Pul-i-Alam. Chris Sand reported from Kabul.
Analysts: Ethnic, Political Divisions Pose Threat to Afghan Peace
Voice of America By Sharon Behn November 26, 2012
KABUL - As the 2014 draw-down of international combat troops in Afghanistan nears, a lot of attention has been focused on whether the Afghan army can secure the nation from extremist militant groups, such as the Taliban. But former government and military officials say ethnic divisions and political factions could be as big a threat to peace in the country.
The Afghan army is now some 184,000 strong. The police force numbers 146,000.
Relying on just the personnel count gives the impression that Afghan security forces are nearing the targets for being able to defend the country from extremist threats.
But former military and government officials are warning that the Taliban and terrorists are not the only threats Afghanistan will face in 2014. They say some ethnic warlords are starting to re-arm themselves for what could turn into an ugly fight for territory and influence.
These ethnic divisions, which analysts say exist in the government, the army and even provinces controlled by warlords, could prove disastrous.
"The fear is that after 2014 that the army will disband again, because there are different factions," noted Shir Khosti, the former governor of Ghazni province, "as most of these generals in the army are from the north, and now my understanding is that they are shifting heavy weapons to the north as well, and that is going to create a lot of problems in the future. [We] need to pay heed to these issues now, before it escalates to a level we cannot contain any more."
The Taliban are present in most of Afghanistan, but are most resilient among their ethnic Pashtun base in the south. In the north, commanders of the former Northern Alliance, comprising ethnic Tajiks, Uzbeks and Hazara, hold sway.
The head of Kabul's Military Training Center, Brig. Gen. Aminullah Patyani, says army recruits are a mix of all ethnic groups.
He says, Pashtun, Tajiks, Uzbek, Hazara, Pashaei, Noorestani, Baluch -- all the nationalities that make up the nation of Afghanistan, can come here, that is how we are training here.
After Soviet Union forces withdrew from Afghanistan in 1989, the country entered a brutal civil war, fought along largely ethnic lines.
But analysts say the situation in 2014 will not be the same. They point to more civic institutions and expectations that the American military will maintain a presence of some 10,000 personnel in the country. But also they caution that much will depend on how well the army sticks together to face the challenges ahead.
Khosti warns Pashtuns are underrepresented in the Afghan military, and army commanders tend to come from the north.
Political analyst Khalid Mafton adds that many in Afghanistan's security forces, as well as in the ministries of defense and interior, have been appointed based on their affiliations with particular political and ethnic groups, making them vulnerable to ethnic conflict once international troops leave.
Mafton said he is expecting the worst.
"If the United States leaves the country, this army, because of the reasons I mentioned, will definitely collapse, maybe not within days or weeks, maybe with in a month, maximum, ok, so who will be replacing them? The Taliban," he said.
Asked if he thought different groups in the country were beginning to stockpile weapons for possible conflict, Mafton's affirmation was an unequivocal "Yes."
After three decades of war, and a thriving black market thanks to opium sales, analysts say there are more than enough weapons in the country to go around.
250 Isaf Bases Handed Over to Afghan Forces
TOLOnews.com By Azim Harash Monday, 26 November 2012
More than half the remaining Isaf bases in Afghanistan have been handed over to the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) as the Nato-led coalition reduces its troop numbers, according to an Isaf spokesperson.
Around 250 bases out of 400 have been entrusted to the local forces with more expected to be transferred in the future, Gen. Gunter Katz said in a Kabul press conference on Monday.
The handover primarily refers to the physical structure of the base and not necessarily the weapons and equipment used to defend the bases.
"Of handing over bases to the Afghans, I would be very cautious in saying [it includes] all the equipment. It's basically just what's been used to run the infrastructure – this doesn't include weapons or stuff like this," Katz said.
Most of the Isaf military bases remaining will be destroyed or given to ANSF by the end of 2014, according to decisions made by the commission founded for this purpose under the Afghan Ministry of Finance.
On the topic of the peace process, Katz said that to date more than 5,600 insurgents have joined the Afghan governments reconciliation programme.
"I can tell you today that we have more than 5,600 former Taliban who cut their links to the insurgency, who have given up violence, who acknowledged [they will] obey the laws and are willing to be reintegrated in their villages, in their homes, in their society," Katz said.
"Every Taliban has a choice: he can be reintegrated and come home in dignity or be captured or killed by the ANSF and international troops," he added.
Germany Gives $126M of Tokyo Pledge to Afghanistan
TOLOnews.com By Karim Amini Monday, 26 November 2012
Germany has delivered a total 97million (US$125.7m) to Afghanistan for development projects in education, rural rehabilitation and irrigation, the Afghan Minister of Finance said Monday.
"This donation was part of Germany's pledge at the Tokyo Summit on Afghanistan. Germany fulfills part of its pledge today," Hazrat Omer Zakhilwal said Monday at a press conference in Kabul.
According to the ministry, 20 million will be spent on improving the education sector, 32m on Kabul's water supply, 5m towards rehabilitation of Faizabad in Badakhshan province and Emam Saheb of Kunduz province, and 40m will be transferred to the Afghanistan Rehabilitation Fund.
"The international community is with us and will be with us still after 2014. I assure that the rumors about Afghanistan going into crisis after 2014 are untrue – this a solid example of it," Education Minister Ghulam Farooq Wardak said at the conference.
German Ambassador to Afghanistan Rüdiger König said the two countries will continue to have a partnership into the future.
"Afghanistan and Germany have been strong partners in the past and will be strong partners in the future, which is even more important than talking about past. We have entered into mutual commitments at the Tokyo conference which we are now implementing," he said at the press conference.
According to the Finance Ministry, Germany has been one of the main donors of Afghanistan pledging up to 400m to Afghanistan while it has donated 88m for improvement of education in the country.
The international community committed $16bn to Afghanistan's development for the next four years from 2012, mostly funded by the US.
Exports as Important as Security: Commerce Ministry
TOLOnews.com By Shahla Murtazaie Monday, 26 November 2012
Efforts to build demand for Afghanistan's products abroad are as important as efforts to secure the country, the Deputy Minister for Commerce and Industries said on Monday.
Muzmil Shinwari said at a meeting in Kabul that a better strategy is needed to increase the international markets interested in Afghan products in order to shore up the country's economy.
"The economic transition will have more impact than the security transition," he said at the meeting.
"When foreign forces leave Afghanistan there will be an economic gap – the economic situation needs to improve to prevent unemployment. There should be lots of attention on the economic situation and the industries should be promoted."
Monday's session entitled "Access to Global Markets", hosted by the European Promotional Products Association in Kabul, was also attended by the Afghan Chamber of Commerce and Industries and the Afghanistan Investments Support Agency.
On a positive note, the ministry officials claimed that Afghanistan's exports have strengthened in than last two years, especially the export of fresh fruits.
www.afghanistannewscenter.com
New York Times By MATTHEW ROSENBERG November 26, 2012
KABUL, Afghanistan - Kabul Bank became Afghanistan’s largest financial institution by offering the promise of modern banking to people who had never had a saving or checking account. What it really dealt in was modern theft: “From its very beginning,” according to a confidential forensic audit of Kabul Bank, “the bank was a well-concealed Ponzi scheme.”
Afghan and American officials had for years promoted Kabul Bank as a prime example of how Western-style banking was transforming a war-ravaged economy. But the audit, prepared this year for Afghanistan’s central bank by the Kroll investigative firm, gives new details of how the bank instead was institutionalizing fraud that reached into the hundreds of millions of dollars and obliterated Afghans’ trust after regulators finally seized the bank in August 2010 and the theft was revealed.
Going further than previous reports, the audit asserts that Kabul Bank had little reason to exist other than to allow a narrow clique tied to President Hamid Karzai’s government to siphon riches from depositors, who were the bank’s only substantial source of revenue.
At one point, Kroll’s investigators found 114 rubber stamps for fake companies used to give forged documents a more legitimate look. And the auditing firms used by the bank never took issue with loan books that were “almost entirely fraudulent,” Kroll found, recommending that the Afghan government explore suing the last such auditor, A.F. Ferguson & Co., a private Pakistani firm with a franchise under PricewaterhouseCoopers.
When Afghan regulators, aided by American officials, first discovered the extent of the fraud at the bank in the summer of 2010, “we never imagined that the criminality was as deep as it was, that it was so widespread and that it included high-ranking officials and their relatives,” said Abdul Qadeer Fitrat, at the time the governor of the Bank of Afghanistan, the country’s central bank.
“At the beginning, I received information from the U.S. Embassy that maybe $150 million or $200 million is gone in bad loans to powerful people,” he said. The number soon climbed close to $900 million, though “we did not know who took the loans and that they were all tied to a few individuals.”
What Kroll’s audit found is that on Aug. 31, 2010, the day the Bank of Afghanistan seized Kabul Bank, more than 92 percent of the lender’s loan portfolio — $861 million, or roughly 5 percent of Afghanistan’s annual economic output at the time — had gone to 19 related people and companies, according to the audit.
Among the largest beneficiaries were a brother of Mr. Karzai and a brother of First Vice President Muhammad Qasim Fahim who each owned stakes in the bank that had been bought with loans from the bank, according to the audit and regulatory officials. For their part, both have insisted that they never took part in any fraud at the lender.
Reached for comment, Mr. Karzai’s spokesman, Aimal Faizi, stressed that the president considered the audit incomplete: Mr. Karzai still believes Kroll has to find out where all the missing money has gone, to which countries it was sent and to which accounts if the firm wants the report to be seen as credible, Mr. Faizi said.
The New York Times obtained a copy of the 277-page audit report, which Afghan and Western officials have confirmed was the one Kroll prepared.
The two men that Afghan prosecutors, Western officials and the Kroll audit accuse of profiting most from the fraud were the bank’s principal owners: Sherkhan Farnood, its chairman and a former World Series of Poker Europe winner, and his former bodyguard, Khalil Fruzi, who served as the bank’s chief executive.
Working with the bank’s executives, they devised simple, yet effective, schemes to fool weak and reluctant regulators, and the Americans who were advising them, the audit says.
The owners kept two sets of books, and hid loans to themselves and their shareholders by taking them in the names of friends, relatives and even domestic servants, according to the audit and Afghan officials. They grouped related loans together to better keep track of who owed what. Hundreds of millions of dollars in illicit loans were routed to Dubai through a money exchange controlled by Mr. Farnood, who founded the bank.
Kabul Bank employed people to forge documents for fictitious companies, which were then audited by accounting firms that appear to have been complicit, according to Kroll. That is where the rubber stamps came in: they bore the names of those false companies, like Abdul Mahmood Trading and Ali Jan Abdul Hadi Ltd., to lend an air of respectability to fake documents.
Toward the end, Mr. Fruzi even expensed foreign shopping sprees at stores like Louis Vuitton and Versace in Dubai and New Delhi. Mr. Farnood was snapping up villas in Dubai with bank money, though he has maintained they were investments gone bad, nothing more.
Bailing out depositors cost the cash-strapped Afghan government more than $825 million, and Afghan and Western officials say that only between $200 million and $400 million, depending on how assets are valued, has so far been recovered from shareholders.
For many Afghans, the scandal surrounding Kabul Bank, a linchpin of the economic order established here by Americans and their allies, has cemented the opinion that the United States brought crony capitalism, not free markets, to Afghanistan. The audit is likely to reinforce that view while raising potentially troubling questions about who is being prosecuted here in connection with the scandal, and who is not.
The United States and its allies have pressed hard for prosecutions, threatening to cut aid if no action was taken. The completion of the forensic audit, which was financed by international donors and delivered in March, was another demand by the international community, as was a separate report, due later this week, by an Afghan government-funded but largely independent corruption watchdog commission composed of Afghan and foreign experts.
Mr. Farnood and Mr. Fruzi top the list of 22 defendants charged so far, and both are on trial in Kabul. Many others on the list are Kabul Bank executives who are accused of helping to carry out fraud, though it is unclear whether they personally profited.
Few officials have any problem with those prosecutions. But there are questions about the charges brought by Afghan prosecutors against a few officials at Afghanistan’s central bank. Western officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, expressed worries that those cases appeared to be intended to end further investigation into Kabul Bank. Kroll has said it has no evidence that the Bank of Afghanistan’s staff members were complicit in Kabul Bank’s collapse.
In the most prominent such case, the former chairman of the Bank of Afghanistan, Abdul Qadeer Fitrat, has been indicted primarily for failing to warn the Afghan government about Kabul Bank and concealing the fraud there — an accusation that one Western official called “laughable.” Several Western and Afghan officials insist that Mr. Fitrat had actively pressed inquiries of Kabul Bank, and believed he had been indicted in order to scare him off. He fled the country last year.
Even Mr. Farnood said Mr. Fitrat had done nothing wrong: “Fitrat was the one person who was not involved in any bribing,” he said in a telephone interview.
The situation was particularly galling, the officials said, because apart from Mr. Farnood and Mr. Fruzi, the other “high-value beneficiaries” — each of whom still owes at least $5 million to the bank, Kroll estimates — have yet to face any legal action. That group includes Mahmood Karzai, the president’s brother, and Haseen Fahim, the vice president’s brother.
In an interview, Mahmood Karzai said he had repaid all the money he originally owed, an amount he put at $5.3 million. He insisted that Kroll had miscalculated and included assets he never owned, like a villa in Dubai, when it tallied his liability at $30.5 million.
He called Kroll “a piece of puke” and said it had relied too heavily on evidence provided by Mr. Farnood, who in the summer of 2010 began cooperating with American officials and, subsequently, Afghan investigators after a dispute with his fellow shareholders.
Neither Mr. Fahim nor Mr. Fruzi responded to phone messages seeking comment.
Kabul Bank did serve some legitimate functions — for instance, the United States paid the salaries of hundreds of thousands of soldiers, police and teachers through it.
But many of the bank’s practices seemed tailor-made to lure depositors by any means available. One popular gimmick detailed by the audit was known as a Bakht account, which offered those who opened them a chance to win houses, cars and jewelry at glitzy prize drawings.
The only real winners, however, were the bank’s senior managers and their friends, the audit found. The new depositors’ money was used principally “to provide free financing to the other business interests of senior management and a group of connected persons.”
Alissa J. Rubin and Sharifullah Sahak contributed reporting.
Afghans Worry About Iran's Growing Influence
Sharon Behn VOA News November 27, 2012
ISLAMABAD — As the United States negotiates the scope of its presence in Afghanistan after combat forces leave in 2014, Afghan former officials and analysts are getting concerned that neighboring Iran is also seeking to shape Afghanistan's future.
In the eyes of Ahmad Saeedi, a political analyst and former diplomat, Tehran’s influence is becoming pronounced.
"Afghanistan is under the siege of Iranian influence. Nowadays we have six pro-Iranian TV channels, 21 radio stations, and a large number of publications that appear in Kabul that are pro-Iranian," he says, adding, "The cultural war is more important than war led by guns."
Countering Western influence
Khalid Mafton, a U.S. educated political analyst living in Kabul, says Iran's strategy is aimed at both bolstering its support among Afghanistan's minority Shi'ites and countering U.S. and Western influence in Afghanistan.
He says that Iran's long term agenda "is to have some people who support the Iranian regime and culture in the society, and in the short and medium term is to somehow hurt the American military forces in Afghanistan."
This warning has particular resonance for Washington given its experience in Iraq, where pro-Iranian Shi'ites came to power following the U.S. military intervention.
Regional ambitions
In some ways, the relationship between Afghanistan and Iran is natural. More than a million Afghans sought refuge from the war in Afghanistan in Iran, and they are now drifting back after living there for years. And, some are bringing Iranian culture and religious beliefs with them.
Afghanistan also shares a long border with Iran and is heavily reliant on it for fuel imports, which either transit Iran or come directly over the border. And the two countries have a fair amount of trade, with Iranian exports to Afghanistan totaling some $2 billion a year.
But Davood Moradian, former chief adviser to President Hamid Karzai's foreign minister, says there are three facets to Iran's objectives in Afghanistan. There is the Iran "which has legitimate interests, Iran which has an ideological preference, and Iran which has regional ambition. And two of the three are causing problems in Afghanistan."
Analysts also believe that Iran's intelligence services - as well as Pakistan's intelligence services - are active in Afghanistan. Jawed Kohistani, a former Afghan military officer and intelligence official, says the security pact currently under negotiation between Kabul and Washington should address relations with Iran, as well as with Pakistan.
The religious factor
There are also concerns that Iran's ideological ambitions will create friction between Afghanistan's majority Sunni and minority Shia, and has sparked a tussle for influence from Iran's ideological rival, Saudi Arabia.
In western Kabul, one physical example of Iran’s influence is the Khatam al-Nabeyeen Islamic University. The complex, which also includes a madrassah and student housing, is funded with the help of Iran and teaches Iran's version of Islam.
Saudi Arabia is reportedly ready to fund the building of a large $100 million mosque and school complex in Kabul, where the Saudi brand of Sunni Islam will be offered to thousands of students and followers.
Saudi Arabia's Wahabbi version of Islam is the one adopted by al Qaida's Osama bin Laden and the conservative Taliban, who ruled Afghanistan and gave safe haven to al-Qaida until the 2001 U.S. invasion. Saudi Arabia has rejected all ties with the Taliban.
President Karzai calls for investment in Afghanistan
KABUL, Nov. 27 (Xinhua)-- Afghanistan's President Hamid Karzai on Tuesday called on national and international investors to invest in the conflict-ridden country.
"Any country, any company and anyone is welcomed if invest in Afghanistan to help take this country towards more progress," President Karzai said in conference here to encourage investment in Afghanistan.
He also said that China has already began investment in Afghanistan and the government would also welcome Iran, Pakistan and India if do so.
Allaying the concerns over the withdrawal of NATO-led forces from Afghanistan in 2014, the Afghan leader pointed out that the security situation in the country is improving by each passing day and "there is no need to worry".
However, he accused western media of reporting baseless propaganda, saying certain western media has been reporting that Afghanistan would slide towards instability in 2014 and Afghan president would declare emergency situation.
The president lashed at all such reports, adding that Afghanistan will be further stabilized, there will be no emergency situation, the presidential election will be held as per scheduled and the country would have new president in 2014.
About strategic cooperation with U.S., the Afghan president stated that Afghanistan wants to ensure its national interests in any pact, saying Afghanistan wants U.S. to support and equip its national security forces, to build its canals and irrigation systems and to launch development projects.
The president later inaugurated an industrial exhibition which put on display the national industrial products.
Briefing the audience, Wafiullah Iftikhar, director of Afghan Investment Support Agency (AISA), a government-backed body to encourage investment, said that 553 million U.S. dollars had been invested in Afghanistan so far in 2012, showing 20 percent increase against last year.
Presently around 3,000 small and medium plants, according to officials, are operating in the country which producing light items such as biscuits, macaroni, tissue papers, medicines, soaps, washing liquid, drinking water, juice, soft drinks, etc.
Afghan forces kill 8 Taliban fighters
MEHTERLAM, Afghanistan, Nov. 27 (Xinhua) -- Afghan forces backed by the NATO-led troops killed eight Taliban militants in Laghman province 90 km east of Kabul on Tuesday, spokesman for provincial administration said.
"In the operation launched early morning in some villages outside provincial capital Mehterlam, and lasted for a few hours, eight Taliban rebels were killed and four others injured," Sarhadi Zawak told Xinhua.
There were no casualties on security forces, he said.
Meantime, Taliban purported spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid in talks with media via telephone from unknown location confirmed the fighting but added only one Taliban fighter was killed in the firefight.
As Complaints Grow, Afghanistan Promises School-System Review
By Ron Synovitz and Zarif Nazar November 27, 2012 Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
Sheila, a 15-year-old Afghan girl, has spent years attending a refugee-camp school on the north side of Kabul. But she still does not know how to write her own name.
"I am supposed to study the Koran, Dari, mathematics, Pashto, the English language -- altogether I am enrolled in 11 subjects," she says. "But there are no lessons at my school because the teachers come for just a few minutes. Then they leave. So we sit there doing nothing."
Yunis, the father of two boys who attend an Afghan public school in the northeastern province of Takhar, has a similar story. "My complaint is about the entire education system in Afghanistan -- the teachers, the administrators, and the government. We send our sons to school but they aren't learning anything in first or second grade, or even by the 12th grade," he says.
"Even students in the 12th grade are unable to write their names. The Education Ministry is paying the teachers a salary but the children are learning nothing."
RFE/RL's Radio Free Afghanistan has received such complaints from students and parents across the country.
In rural areas, a common corruption allegation is that the relatives or friends of powerful militia commanders are thrown into classrooms to collect a teacher's salary -- despite being unqualified to teach.
Deputy Education Minister Mohammad Sediq Patman says the government in Kabul is aware of the growing complaints. "We can't accept this criticism for the entire country -- that there are students who can't read or write after years in school," he says. "But this problem does exist in many schools and districts."
Systemic Reform Needed
Patman says that his ministry is preparing to examine the entire school system of 8 million students -- from kindergarten through 12th grade -- to determine what reforms are needed to modernize the curriculum and improve the quality of education. The review should cover some 14,000 schools across the country that employ about 190,000 teachers, one-third of them women.
"From the first grade through the 12th grade, there needs to be improvement. The standards of the 21st century need to be introduced to our education system. The current system is designed to train people to become bureaucratic clerks. But right now there is no need for clerks," Patman tells RFE/RL. "What we really need are people who are familiar with technology and practical theory. In the West, computers or other technology do the work of 100 people. That's what we need here."
British media recently quoted senior officials there who acknowledged that London had spent millions of dollars to build schools in rural parts of Helmand Province during the past decade, only to find that the Afghan government may not be able to keep many of them open due to a lack of teachers and funds.
Richard Stagg, Britain's ambassador to Afghanistan, told "The Guardian" newspaper recently that it was wrong to focus on "the physical and visible rather than the human capital" needed in Afghanistan over the long term.
Focus On Teachers
Indeed, Afghan officials say that for many schools in volatile areas it is impossible to find qualified teachers willing or able to work for the normal teacher's salary of about $100 per month. In districts where the Taliban holds sway, potential teachers also worry about death threats from militants.
The Education Ministry this year offered a monthly salary of more than $1,000 for qualified teachers willing to work in the Taliban strongholds of Kandahar and Oruzgan provinces. Despite a chance to earn 10 times the normal salary, Patman says no qualified teachers stepped forward to accept the offers.
The German government has spent tens of millions of dollars to fund basic education and vocational training in Afghanistan since 2002. In a 2010 report, Germany recognized that only a small fraction of active teachers in Afghanistan had gone through a solid education and teacher-training program.
As a result, Germany is now focusing more on initiatives to train teachers in several provinces. In Kabul, construction also began in early November on a German-funded center to train teachers for professional and technical institutes.
For its part, the Afghan government says it wants to recruit 11,000 new teachers this year and to train another 48,000 secondary-school graduates to become teachers.
'A Waste Of Money'
The Afghan government also funds teacher-training seminars in provincial areas. But some who have attended those seminars say precious money is being wasted.
One middle-school science teacher in Konduz Province, who did not want to be named, tells RFE/RL that an Afghan-funded seminar now under way in Konduz began this month with much fanfare but deteriorated into a useless exercise when it was time to focus on training teachers.
"There are no instructors there to train teachers. There are no books or teaching materials or laboratory equipment that is so important for teaching science -- like microscopes," the teacher says. "I assume that a lot of money was spent on this seminar. But there is nothing here. This will not bring good results."
When asked by RFE/RL about the ongoing seminar in Konduz, Patman expressed surprise and concern. He said the Education Ministry would investigate the complaints.
The chequered tale of the Taliban 'boy commander'
BBC News By Bilal Sarwary 26 November 2012
Kunar - When he was barely out of adolescence, Obaidullah Safi was fighting a war in the lawless borderlands of Afghanistan's Kunar province.
Even though he was born in 1992, his story of divided loyalties, betrayals and bounties mirrors those of Afghan power-brokers, commanders and warlords over the centuries.
While his contemporaries were busy chasing girls or playing sport, Obaidullah had the distinction of having fought for - and being imprisoned by - both sides in the Afghan conflict.
He joined the Taliban at 16, waging many fierce battles against Nato-led forces in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Three years later he decided to switch sides and help the government in their war against the Taliban.
When I met him earlier this year, he had been made head of the local police and put in charge of 60 men.
There was a Taliban bounty on his head and he had been informed that the militants "were ready to sacrifice the lives of 50 insurgents" in exchange for his.
But in a further twist to his story, shortly after that interview he was arrested and charged with the murder of an influential tribal elder - the very man who had paid a ransom to free him from his imprisonment by the Taliban years earlier. He denies the charge, saying he has been framed.
Taliban training
A friend in Afghan intelligence arranged for me to meet Obaidullah on a clear day in a house near a remote mountain pass.
After about 45 minutes of waiting in the sweltering heat, a motorbike passed by. The rider had his face and head covered with a scarf, for protection against the dust.
The bike returned after a few moments.
"How are you, Bilal?" the rider said in Pashto as he parked nearby.
Standing only five feet (1.5m) tall but with an athletic physique, Obaidullah looked far older than his 19 years.
"I was studying in grade eight at the local school and dreaming of being an engineer when the Taliban approached me," he said. "My vast knowledge of Kunar's rugged terrain interested them."
Three years ago Kunar was very unstable and the scene of frequent clashes between the Taliban and Nato-led forces.
"Loyalties were divided. Although many people in my village supported the Afghan government, they were fast becoming disillusioned because of a lack of development, poverty and rampant corruption.
"Taliban propaganda was at its peak. And I became its victim," he said.
"When I first met Taliban insurgents, I found them to be credible young men following the path of Sunnah [the recorded words and actions of the Prophet Muhammad]," Obaidullah said. "I was young and raw, and fell in love with their ideology."
Obaidullah was taken to a Taliban camp, given basic training in handling a weapon, and sent to a remote area on the Afghan-Pakistan border to fight.
'Kill or capture'
His skill in battle attracted the attention of the Taliban leadership - in three years he rose through their ranks to become one of their youngest commanders.
Obaidullah says he has fought on both sides of the Afghan-Pakistan border. "Once I raided 12 Pakistani checkposts in a single day," he said.
"With every successful attack on Afghan and Nato forces, I became more and more popular among my fighters," he said.
He even claims to have met the chief of the Pakistani Taliban, Hakimullah Mehsud.
He says that he was eventually put in charge of 250 fighters. According to Afghan intelligence officials in Kunar, his rising popularity among the insurgents was noticed by Nato forces, and his name was soon included in their "kill or capture" list.
But the teenager says he became disillusioned with the "futility" of the insurgency after being imprisoned by the Taliban in 2010 and what he calls their "pretence" that they were safeguarding and furthering Islam.
"In three years, I had begun to understand the true nature of the Taliban's jihad," he said. "I thought they were fighting for Islam. But they were not. They were fighting for themselves or for Pakistan," he said.
Obaidullah says trouble with the Taliban arose when he refused to accept suicide attackers in his group, deeming such a move to be un-Islamic. He also said he had reservations about targeting the local infrastructure.
He was jailed by the Taliban for 47 days in 2010 for being a renegade commander, accused of wrongfully taking ransom money, extortion and working for Afghan intelligence.
"The Taliban's war was only a pretext for destroying Afghanistan," he said.
Chequered reputation
With nine of his most trusted lieutenants, he decided to swap sides.
During his subsequent interrogation, government officials became aware of his knowledge of Kunar's terrain and his understanding of the Taliban's internal workings, and thought his strengths could be put to use.
A few months later, he was made head of the local police, in charge of 60 men, including the nine insurgents who surrendered with him.
But Obaidullah has a chequered reputation among villagers in the area. One elder in the Shroankaray valley in Khas Kunar said: "We all feared him. He was brave, cruel and if he said he was going to do something, he made sure he did it."
Obaidullah admits that he extorted money from tribal elders and rich traders, but insists the money went to senior Taliban leaders.
"I didn't make money for myself," he says.
Shortly after our interview, in October 2012, Obaidullah was arrested and charged with the murder of the influential tribal elder who paid the $52,000 (£32,000) ransom to free him when he was held by the Taliban two years ago.
Obaidullah flatly denies this charge, but he remains in prison in Asadabad in Kunar and is awaiting a hearing at a military court. If he is found guilty, he could face life in prison or the death penalty.
His career on the front line was relatively short-lived. But Obaidullah's shifting loyalties are just one example of the instability inherent in Afghanistan's borderlands.
For Afghan women, gender equality is still wishful thinking
By Abdul Haleem
KABUL, Nov. 27 (Xinhua) -- Even after the end of the brutal rule of the Taliban in Afghanistan, Afghan women today are still yearning for gender equality, something that probably would remain wishful thinking for many years to come.
"Is this our right to beg from dawn to dusk to feed my children? Is this the right of women in Afghanistan to suffer at the hands of men?" asked Shah Begam, a 39-year-old woman beggar, just a day after the world marked the International Day for the Elimination of Violence against Women.
Panhandling alongside a dirty road in Kabul, Begam wondered aloud whether the Afghan government is capable of doing something for women like her who are forced to beg in order to survive.
She said begging itself is an insult for women in a country where the constitution guarantees women's rights.
"My husband married another girl for the second time and threw me out of the house," said Begum, who wears a burka. She added that since the government does not have a social welfare program for poor or abandoned women like her, they have no choice but to beg in the streets.
In the male-dominated and conservative Afghanistan, the International Day for the Elimination of Violence against Women was marked on Sunday.
In her remarks on the occasion, Afghan Minister for Women Affairs Husan Bano Ghazanfar confirmed that 3,500 cases of violence against women were registered in Afghanistan in the first six months of Afghan year which began from March 21, 2012.
Ghazanfar has called on the country's religious scholars to play their a role in eliminating violence against Afghan women, which has been on the rise.
Women in Afghanistan are facing a variety of discrimination and violence ranging from child marriage, forced marriage, rape, polygamy and even "baad," a tribal custom of giving forcibly the hand of a widow or girl to a man from an opposing tribe to settle a dispute and end enmity.
Afghanistan, according to women rights activists, is a challenging country for women to live.
Discrimination against women, particularly in the countryside, is still rampant. A girl can be forced to marry a boy chosen by her parents.
Cases of public execution of women, flogging of women by Taliban militants and powerful tribal leaders have been reported in parts of Afghanistan over the past year.
Najiba, 22, was publicly executed by Taliban militants in Ghorband district of Parwan province a couple of months ago while Sabira was publicly lashed in Jaghori district of Ghazni province by local mullahs months ago after she eloped with her boyfriend.
Although women's rights have seen considerable improvement in Afghanistan over the past 11 years, they still need more years and a long way to achieve equity with men as the rate of literacy among women remains much lower than men.
In some tribal villages, tradition still requires that women, especially young girls, stay at home and be barred from attending school which was what the Taliban ordered during their rule.
"It is an open secret that I have no right in society, every day I am mistreated. I can say that women are a neglected segment here. During the day, I work in other person's house to earn money or beg in the streets and at night I cook for my husband and he often maltreats me. He also prevents my daughters from going to school," another woman beggar said.
David Cameron set to decide on Afghanistan withdrawal timetable
National security council meeting will discuss scale of military pullout and how many personnel will stay on after 2014
The Guardian By Nick Hopkins Tuesday 27 November 2012
David Cameron is expected to rule on the scale and scope of the British military withdrawal from Afghanistan over the next two years when he chairs a meeting on Tuesday of the national security council.
A series of plans will be presented by the chief of the defence staff, General Sir David Richards, and the prime minister will agree in principle the favoured timetable, which will also determine how many British personnel remain in Afghanistan after 2014.
One scenario with widespread military support involves keeping troop numbers stable at 9,000 until September next year, the end of the next "fighting season", and then withdrawing 8,000 personnel over the following 12 months.
That would leave about 1,000 troops in Afghanistan by the end of 2014 for training, logistical support and protecting supply lines. Nato has said it will have ended all combat operations against the Taliban by then.
With reports in the US saying Washington is also nearing a decision on its long-term troop levels, likely to be a "light footprint" of about 10,000 American troops, officials hope Downing Street could be in a position to announce its plans during the traditional ministerial visit to Afghanistan around Christmas.
This would give British forces in Helmand province a much-needed fillip at the end of a year in which military efforts have been overshadowed by a series of so-called green-on-blue attacks, in which members of the Afghan army and police have shot their allies. Fifty-four Nato troops have been killed in such incidents this year, including 13 Britons.
"A number of scenarios will be looked at and it will be down to the prime minister to make the decision," a Whitehall source said. "We have to be in a position to be able to align ourselves with our international partners, particularly the US."
A second national security council meeting next month will give the government a chance to review and refine its plans. The Cabinet Office and the Ministry of Defence said they could not give details about Tuesday's NSC meeting, but officials confirmed that discussions about the size of the UK's footprint in Afghanistan had been under way for some time.
The hold-up was due to the US presidential election and the Obama administration's unwillingness to take any decisions about the 66,000 American troops still in Afghanistan before polling day three weeks ago. However, the outgoing commander in charge of Nato troops in Afghanistan, General John Allen, has prepared detailed advice for the president, and the UK is among nations privately urging Obama to decide as soon as possible.
"We have been waiting almost a year to hear what they want to do," said another British official. "The Americans have the largest force in Afghanistan by far and to a certain extent we have to wait on them, otherwise the pullout could become very disorderly. But it would be fair to say people are getting a little fed-up with the waiting game."
Despite the green-on-blue attacks, British commanders have been positive about the progress made in Helmand, and their advice to ministers has changed over the past six months. Instead of seeking to keep as many troops for as long as possible, they have told ministers that a more gradual "conditions-based withdrawal" is now viable, and in some ways preferable.
In an interview with the Guardian in September, the defence secretary, Philip Hammond, said 52 British military bases and checkpoints had already been closed. He added: "There may be some scope for a little bit more flexibility on the way we draw down, and that is something commanders on the ground are looking at very actively. Talking to senior commanders, you get a clear sense that their view of force levels is evolving in light of their experiences."
The Treasury is known to be pushing for a speedier retreat from Afghanistan, and Cameron could decide to start the timetable next spring, if commanders on the ground agree. The military would be wary of pulling out too many people at the start of the fighting season, but the prime minister has already made clear he does not want a "cliff-edge" withdrawal.
"As Afghan troops take a bigger role we will be able to reduce troop numbers further next year," Cameron said in July. "I don't want to see some cliff edge. I'm confident we are going to have a staged reduction and deliver a safe and secure situation."
In a speech on Monday, Brigadier Doug Chalmers, who has been on four tours to Afghanistan and commanded Task Force Helmand over the summer, said the Afghans were now leading the fight against the Taliban, not the British.
"On this tour it was very much about enabling the Afghan security forces to fight the counter-insurgency," he told an audience at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. "They have very capable commanders with significant combat experience."
One of their best officers, he said, was the Afghan army general Sherin Shah. "He is a strong tactical commander who understands the Afghan insurgency in a way that we [the British] simply never will. I often used to joke about who was the adviser because the roles were often switched."
Chalmers said he knew the insurgents' campaign "had failed tactically because we could hear their conversations and the local nationals were almost oblivious to it". But he admitted the green-on-blue attacks had taken their toll. "It was the greatest challenge that we faced. They were the hardest blows to bear they were the hardest letters to write."
Since 2001, 438 British soldiers and civilians have been killed in Afghanistan, the vast majority since the UK sent troops to Helmand in 2006.
Afghanistan: Another province goes to the Taliban
Logar, a strategic province that neighbors Kabul and is home to an all-important copper mine, is increasingly under Taliban control as NATO sources begin to withdraw.
Global Post By Fazelminallah Qazizai and Chris Sands November 26, 2012
PUL-I-ALAM, Afghanistan - The first sign of the Taliban's growing strength in Logar province comes on the main highway, where culverts have been blown up at regular intervals, each one an ideal place to hide a bomb aimed at passing military convoys.
Next, there is a police post made from a shipping container and surrounded by sandbags. It looks like it has been set on fire and abandoned.
But the definitive proof that the insurgents are in the ascendency here can be found among the residents. Those who are willing to be interviewed are happy to express their admiration for the Taliban, while many others are scared of talking to a journalist.
"If the people didn't support the Taliban, how could they be such a powerful movement like they are now?" said Mohammed Rafiq, a local bookshop manager.
Logar is a short drive to the south of Kabul. In recent years, it has become one of the most dangerous places in Afghanistan.
The situation here is a blueprint for what may lie ahead for large swathes of the country as NATO forces continue to withdraw. Outside the district centers, the government has little influence or backing. The foreign troops are even more unpopular.
A tense atmosphere hangs over Pul-i-Alam, the provincial capital. During a recent visit, a number of pick-up trucks belonging to the national intelligence service were parked in the center of town.
Their presence offered no great comfort to residents, who frequently accuse the security forces of being part of the problem.
Sayed Abdul Wahab is a local high school student who told GlobalPost that even his teachers use Taliban songs as the ringtones on their cell phones.
Aged 18, he is an ethnic Tajik — a section of society not usually associated with sympathy for the insurgents. He openly admitted supporting the Taliban, claiming US troops deliberately target civilians. He accused the police of discriminating against him and other bearded villagers who come into town wearing traditional Afghan clothes.
"This fight is a jihad and everyone knows this and supports this. These people are our oppressors and our enemies, they are not letting us live and be happy," he said.
Last month, four children were killed in a battle between foreign troops and the Taliban in nearby Baraki Barak district. In response, Gen. John Allen, the commander of NATO forces in Afghanistan, quickly offered his "sincerest condolences to the families of the civilians that were killed."
Meanwhile, the rebels are making their own attempts to win hearts and minds. Besides using tactics including suicide attacks, assassinations and kidnappings, they run an informal judicial system that is generally regarded as cleaner and faster than the official courts.
Logar is also a key transit route for insurgents travelling to and from Pakistan along old mountain trails formerly used by the mujahideen against the Soviets in the 1980s.
Haji Sayed Habibullah Husseinyar was a resistance commander then, and is now a tribal elder. Another Tajik, he said a number of different militant factions are active in the area and people "give them food, a place to stay and pray for them" in accordance with Islamic teachings.
“In the government you cannot find a good man — all of them are corrupt,” he said.
Husseinyar claimed that when US forces were searching a village they asked him why people hated them. He replied, “If you want to help us go forward, go back to your homes and send us your engineers, doctors, and teachers, not guns, troops, and tanks.”
As well as being strategically vital, Logar is the location of a multi-billion dollar copper mine project that is seen as an important bellwether for Afghanistan’s long-term economic hopes. In September, Reuters reported that Chinese investors have stopped work on the site due to security concerns.
Anyone here associated with government-backed initiatives or the occupation is at constant risk. Earlier this month, the dead bodies of two Afghans were found near Pul-i-Alam town, with the government offering differing versions of who they were. One official account claimed they had been translators for NATO while another said they had been employees of a contractor working with the Afghan army.
Timor is a taxi driver who travels the 50 minute journey from Kabul to Pul-i-Alam daily. He told GlobalPost the Taliban are active everywhere, including the provincial capital.
He described how a colleague had agreed to take some men to a local military base. Soon after dropping them off he picked up a new passenger who duped him into going to a nearby village, where insurgents were waiting. They beat him and confiscated his car as punishment.
“Security does not exist here. Everyday after 4 p.m. people are not safe inside the town, on the highway or in the villages,” Timor said.
“At around 4 p.m. the Afghan soldiers are leaving the highway and going to their base. Even if you swear on the Quran, they will not come out to help you.”
Fazelminallah Qazizai reported from Pul-i-Alam. Chris Sand reported from Kabul.
Analysts: Ethnic, Political Divisions Pose Threat to Afghan Peace
Voice of America By Sharon Behn November 26, 2012
KABUL - As the 2014 draw-down of international combat troops in Afghanistan nears, a lot of attention has been focused on whether the Afghan army can secure the nation from extremist militant groups, such as the Taliban. But former government and military officials say ethnic divisions and political factions could be as big a threat to peace in the country.
The Afghan army is now some 184,000 strong. The police force numbers 146,000.
Relying on just the personnel count gives the impression that Afghan security forces are nearing the targets for being able to defend the country from extremist threats.
But former military and government officials are warning that the Taliban and terrorists are not the only threats Afghanistan will face in 2014. They say some ethnic warlords are starting to re-arm themselves for what could turn into an ugly fight for territory and influence.
These ethnic divisions, which analysts say exist in the government, the army and even provinces controlled by warlords, could prove disastrous.
"The fear is that after 2014 that the army will disband again, because there are different factions," noted Shir Khosti, the former governor of Ghazni province, "as most of these generals in the army are from the north, and now my understanding is that they are shifting heavy weapons to the north as well, and that is going to create a lot of problems in the future. [We] need to pay heed to these issues now, before it escalates to a level we cannot contain any more."
The Taliban are present in most of Afghanistan, but are most resilient among their ethnic Pashtun base in the south. In the north, commanders of the former Northern Alliance, comprising ethnic Tajiks, Uzbeks and Hazara, hold sway.
The head of Kabul's Military Training Center, Brig. Gen. Aminullah Patyani, says army recruits are a mix of all ethnic groups.
He says, Pashtun, Tajiks, Uzbek, Hazara, Pashaei, Noorestani, Baluch -- all the nationalities that make up the nation of Afghanistan, can come here, that is how we are training here.
After Soviet Union forces withdrew from Afghanistan in 1989, the country entered a brutal civil war, fought along largely ethnic lines.
But analysts say the situation in 2014 will not be the same. They point to more civic institutions and expectations that the American military will maintain a presence of some 10,000 personnel in the country. But also they caution that much will depend on how well the army sticks together to face the challenges ahead.
Khosti warns Pashtuns are underrepresented in the Afghan military, and army commanders tend to come from the north.
Political analyst Khalid Mafton adds that many in Afghanistan's security forces, as well as in the ministries of defense and interior, have been appointed based on their affiliations with particular political and ethnic groups, making them vulnerable to ethnic conflict once international troops leave.
Mafton said he is expecting the worst.
"If the United States leaves the country, this army, because of the reasons I mentioned, will definitely collapse, maybe not within days or weeks, maybe with in a month, maximum, ok, so who will be replacing them? The Taliban," he said.
Asked if he thought different groups in the country were beginning to stockpile weapons for possible conflict, Mafton's affirmation was an unequivocal "Yes."
After three decades of war, and a thriving black market thanks to opium sales, analysts say there are more than enough weapons in the country to go around.
250 Isaf Bases Handed Over to Afghan Forces
TOLOnews.com By Azim Harash Monday, 26 November 2012
More than half the remaining Isaf bases in Afghanistan have been handed over to the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) as the Nato-led coalition reduces its troop numbers, according to an Isaf spokesperson.
Around 250 bases out of 400 have been entrusted to the local forces with more expected to be transferred in the future, Gen. Gunter Katz said in a Kabul press conference on Monday.
The handover primarily refers to the physical structure of the base and not necessarily the weapons and equipment used to defend the bases.
"Of handing over bases to the Afghans, I would be very cautious in saying [it includes] all the equipment. It's basically just what's been used to run the infrastructure – this doesn't include weapons or stuff like this," Katz said.
Most of the Isaf military bases remaining will be destroyed or given to ANSF by the end of 2014, according to decisions made by the commission founded for this purpose under the Afghan Ministry of Finance.
On the topic of the peace process, Katz said that to date more than 5,600 insurgents have joined the Afghan governments reconciliation programme.
"I can tell you today that we have more than 5,600 former Taliban who cut their links to the insurgency, who have given up violence, who acknowledged [they will] obey the laws and are willing to be reintegrated in their villages, in their homes, in their society," Katz said.
"Every Taliban has a choice: he can be reintegrated and come home in dignity or be captured or killed by the ANSF and international troops," he added.
Germany Gives $126M of Tokyo Pledge to Afghanistan
TOLOnews.com By Karim Amini Monday, 26 November 2012
Germany has delivered a total 97million (US$125.7m) to Afghanistan for development projects in education, rural rehabilitation and irrigation, the Afghan Minister of Finance said Monday.
"This donation was part of Germany's pledge at the Tokyo Summit on Afghanistan. Germany fulfills part of its pledge today," Hazrat Omer Zakhilwal said Monday at a press conference in Kabul.
According to the ministry, 20 million will be spent on improving the education sector, 32m on Kabul's water supply, 5m towards rehabilitation of Faizabad in Badakhshan province and Emam Saheb of Kunduz province, and 40m will be transferred to the Afghanistan Rehabilitation Fund.
"The international community is with us and will be with us still after 2014. I assure that the rumors about Afghanistan going into crisis after 2014 are untrue – this a solid example of it," Education Minister Ghulam Farooq Wardak said at the conference.
German Ambassador to Afghanistan Rüdiger König said the two countries will continue to have a partnership into the future.
"Afghanistan and Germany have been strong partners in the past and will be strong partners in the future, which is even more important than talking about past. We have entered into mutual commitments at the Tokyo conference which we are now implementing," he said at the press conference.
According to the Finance Ministry, Germany has been one of the main donors of Afghanistan pledging up to 400m to Afghanistan while it has donated 88m for improvement of education in the country.
The international community committed $16bn to Afghanistan's development for the next four years from 2012, mostly funded by the US.
Exports as Important as Security: Commerce Ministry
TOLOnews.com By Shahla Murtazaie Monday, 26 November 2012
Efforts to build demand for Afghanistan's products abroad are as important as efforts to secure the country, the Deputy Minister for Commerce and Industries said on Monday.
Muzmil Shinwari said at a meeting in Kabul that a better strategy is needed to increase the international markets interested in Afghan products in order to shore up the country's economy.
"The economic transition will have more impact than the security transition," he said at the meeting.
"When foreign forces leave Afghanistan there will be an economic gap – the economic situation needs to improve to prevent unemployment. There should be lots of attention on the economic situation and the industries should be promoted."
Monday's session entitled "Access to Global Markets", hosted by the European Promotional Products Association in Kabul, was also attended by the Afghan Chamber of Commerce and Industries and the Afghanistan Investments Support Agency.
On a positive note, the ministry officials claimed that Afghanistan's exports have strengthened in than last two years, especially the export of fresh fruits.
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