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Default China defends itself from the US - 06-02-2015, 08:04 PM

This is a fantastic article!

Well done to Ian Shilling and I hope me posting it on this widely read forum will encourage many other silent readers to read his blog and increase its profile.



The Imperial Ambitions of Russia and China



Are of course nonsense.

Russia

Russia doesn't want to reclaim the USSR's lost empire in Eastern Europe. It would cost too much in resources to maintain it in the face of a hostile population.
See the USSR subsidizing Eastern Europe with cheap oil, the costs of troops and secret police to keep down domestic dissent, the USSR in Afghanistan, the US in Iraq and the US and NATO in Afghanistan.
Eastern Europe hasn't even got anything that Russia wants. Unlike Iraq for the US with its oil and Afghanistan with its Opium and trillion dollars worth of Lithium and other minerals.

Russia does not want the Baltics or the West of Ukraine - the population is far too hostile because of their suffering at the hands of the USSR.

Russia does not even want the rebellious Ukrainian republics of Donetsk and Luhansk, despite the local population being overwhelming pro Russian and who given the choice between being governed by the current, heavily Neo Nazi regime in Kiev, or Moscow, would choose Moscow like a shot.

Russia did want Crimea because of the strategic importance of the large Naval base at Sevastopol (the only ice free naval base Russia has got). Putin certainly wasn't going to have Sevastopol become a NATO military base. 90% of the population of Crimea supported rejoining Russia (as Crimea had been for 200 years before Kruschev gave it to Ukraine in 1954, in what was then a fairly meaningless administrative exercise between two Soviet Republics).

Russia does want a neutral Ukraine which is not part of NATO. It does NOT want NATO military bases in Ukraine and this is a red line. The same red line as the US not wanting nuclear missiles stationed in Cuba in 1962.

Russia is building closer ties with the oil rich "stan's" of Central Asia. This is both economic with the growing EEU (Eurasian Economic Union) trading bloc and militarily with the Chinese led SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization).

Russia would like an air and naval base in the Mediterranean. The only one it has currently got is a very small naval base at Tartus in Syria (for which there are obvious problems with the Syrian civil war).

There is the possibility of Russia gaining a military base in Greece (if Greece exits the Euro) or in Cyprus (by expanding the current agreement).
The recent sales of Russian arms to Egypt, suggests that Egypt might also be an option further out, as the rest of the world increasingly falls out with the US and its overt policy of wars of aggression and regime change.

Russia is also interested in gaining overfly rights with Turkey to facilitate access to the Mediterranean, the Middle East and the Suez Canal. See the increasing economic cooperation between Russia and Turkey with the Turkstream extension gas pipeline and the $3bn arms sale by China to Turkey for missile defense.

Russia is expanding it's economic and military cooperation with Iran. It has agreed to sell Iranian oil to get round US sanctions, has agreed contracts to build multiple nuclear electrical power generating plants and has agreed to sell its advanced S-300's for missile defense.

In the Pacific, Russia is seeking closer economic ties with Japan (tentative negotiations are underway to build a $6bn pipeline to supply Japan with cheap Russian gas) and to build on the existing close ties with Vietnam (Russia has a military agreement for military landing and refueling rights).

Russia and China

Russia and China are now joined at the hip partners in the face of overt US aggression.

This is despite historical antagonism.

The partnership offers a natural symbiosis of Russian energy and military technology (Russia recently agreed to supply it's latest advanced S-400 missile defense system to China) with Chinese manufacturing capacity, cheap labor and sheer economic size.

Russia is building $35bn worth of additional pipelines to supply China with an additional $80bn a year of Russian energy.

China used some of its $4tn of foreign currency reserves to defeat the US financial attack on the Ruble at the turn of the year.

China is increasing its investments in Russia (its getting a good deal at current exchange rates) and providing some financial muscle to build pipelines, develop Russian oil fields and provide financial loans to Russian companies that have been cut off from Western financial markets due to US sanctions.

China, India, Iran, Pakistan and Russia

This massive geographical bloc is developing closer economic and military ties.

Plans have been restarted to build the pipeline to supply Iranian energy to Pakistan. This is to be built by China. There are natural options to extend this pipeline to India and China.

Pakistan has been buying large quantities of Chinese arms (as well as getting free stuff from the US, via "foreign aid").

India is already buying Iranian oil via a barter arrangement.
China is also buying Iranian oil.

China and India are developing closer economic ties and there was a productive visit by the Chinese leader to India recently, with multiple deals announced and an ambitious statement to increase the mutual exchange of goods and services.

The exact opposite to Obama's visit to India earlier this year, where no new trade deals were announced or the visit by Cameron (the UK Prime Minister) last year who was also effectively snubbed and no deals were announced.
Chinese and Indian territorial disputes and access to fresh water rights from rivers sourced in the Himalayas seem to have been put on the back burner in the face of the advantages for mutual cooperation elsewhere.

India has recently announced its refusal to buy US or French fighter jets and is looking to Russian Mig's to source these weapons.
India has just announced its intention to seek Russian technical expertise to build nuclear submarines and warships. Nothing has been signed but I can't see why Russia would refuse such a deal apart from haggling over the price, who gets which work, and the details of keeping sensitive military technology a secret.

The extreme antagonism between Pakistan and India is likely to be ameliorated in the face of both countries' increasing cooperation with China, Russia and Iran.

China

China is leading the developments for the closer economic ties of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa).
It is the main instigator and funder for the new BRICS bank (intended to compete with the World Bank and IMF).
China has set up the AIIB (Asian Infrastructure and Investment Bank) this year, for which it has signed up more or less the whole of Asia (excluding Japan) and ALL of the sizable economies of Europe. See this http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2015/03/...in-europe.html
AAIB is intended to fund the projects for China's "New Silk Road" which is a massive undertaking for an economic development zone and transportation infrastructure stretching from Beijing, across Asia, to Berlin and Madrid, plus connections to Moscow.
See this:- http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2014/12/...future-us.html



China (along with the other BRICS) has signed over 100 non US Dollar trade deals with over 30 other countries in order to marginalize and eventually replace the US Dollar as the Global Reserve currency. These countries include Japan, Australia, Switzerland and Germany as well as most of the rest of Asia.
List of deals http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2012/02/...-national.html
Chinese (and Russian) plans
http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2014/12/...o-replace.html

Both China and Russia recognize that the US sees them as a threat (rather than as an opportunity for collaboration and further economic development).
They also both know that the US is rapidly declining in relative power and is financially bankrupt with a Debt to GDP ratio of over 100% which is rapidly rising and a trade deficit of over $500bn a year.

The US has already started a cold war against Russia, via Ukraine and with sanctions.
The US has just started getting bellicose against China. See this:-
Why is Obama goading China http://www.counterpunch.org/2015/05/...goading-china/

Both China and Russia recognize that the US Neocons who completely dominate Washington DC (both parties) will not give up power easily (the US has already started thrashing around like a snarling wounded animal, thrashing out at anyone who dares to get in it's way).

Neither China nor Russia want war (it is not in their interests).
They both recognize that the US is unlikely to give up power and hegemony without one.
So both China and Russia are preparing for the worst and ramping up their militaries and strengthening their economic ties, both between themselves, and with as many other countries as they can add to the BRICS economic coalition.

There are significant numbers of developments in Argentina, Venezuela, Brazil and Nicaragua as the battle for influence in South and Latin America hots up.
China has already signed economic deals for resource extraction and infrastructure development with most of Africa.



While the US now has military bases and troops in over 40 of the 52 African countries.
We can expect some more wars in Africa going forward similar to the local wars by the European colonial powers around 1900.

China is very heavily dependent on free navigation of the sea, both for the imports of energy, commodities and raw materials and the export of it's manufactured goods.
At some point in the future China is expecting the US to impose a Naval Blockade on it, similar to that which the US imposed prior to WW2 to squeeze Japan economically.

For this reason, China is seeking to mitigate the effects of such a blockade in a number of ways:-
It is developing overland routes for the import of energy from Russia.
It is developing the New Silk Road as an overland route for its exports to Europe (it will never have anywhere near the capacity of the sea but it is a mitigation).
It is developing, in conjunction with Russia, other Eurasian transport links, e.g. a fast rail link between Beijing and Moscow, e.g. pipelines for Iranian oil.
The building of the Nicaragua canal so it is not reliant on the Panama canal for imports of oil from Angola, Venezuela, Brazil and Argentina and for imports of minerals from West Africa.

All of these major infrastructure projects (so far announced) have a target completion date of early 2019.

And now the current crux of the matter and hotspot - the South China Sea
China has two main weak spots for it's access to free navigation of the seas and a US Naval Blockade:
The Straits of Malacca between Malaysia and Indonesia (through which just about all Middle East oil and gas, destined for Asia, passes) and navigation across the South China Sea



I haven't a clue what China is going to do about the strait of Malacca problem, but it is seeking to strengthen it's position in the South China Sea by being more forceful in it's territorial claims on the Spratly Islands and reefs (which is what all the recent news has been about).
China is building up reefs into islands and intends to put artillery on the islands



There is the ongoing problem with Chinese claims to Taiwan, but apart from this there are no Chinese territorial ambitions apart from a clump of small islands - the Spratly's which only appear to be important in terms of free navigation of the South China Sea.

Conclusions

Neither China nor Russia have any plans for Empire.
War for Empire is not in their interests.
Economic Development via enhanced trading agreements and mutual cooperation with as many other countries as possible is in both their interests.
Free navigation of the sea and the supply of energy, other raw materials and the export of goods is of vital interest to China.

The US bluster about Russian (or Chinese) "Empire Building" is a smokescreen to hide the US government's real intent from Europeans and Americans (it's not going to work anywhere else) that the US government is going to fight over hegemony, no matter the cost or how futile it actually is.

For how long will Europe (and Japan, Australia and Canada) put up with the US government's hegemonic war mongering intent?
Will Europe allow the Neocons to start World War 3?

"Russia Wants War"



The US does have an interest in creating conflict and to destabilize the world and maintain control through "Divide and Conquer".
It also has an economic interest. When your number 1 export is weapons and one of your top two lobby groups is the arms industry (as it now is in the US) your government will create wars and your TV and Press will sell it. As the US has been doing for the last 15 years.

The major issue the US now has with China, is its futile attempt to maintain the Petrodollar system and Dollar hegemony (see above).

The world is going to have to work out a new way of dealing with things. The world is no longer Unipolar. Let us hope the US politicians find a better way of finding solutions than starting a major war. With the Neocons completely dominating Washington DC (both parties) the chances of avoiding major war are currently slim at best.

The way the US is handling things we are more likely to end up with another Unipolar world with China and Russia in charge and I don't want to see that. I would far rather see a Multipolar one where disputes are settled around the negotiating table.

I would much rather the largest geopolitical power shift since the Fall of Rome was handled without major war, but it is increasingly likely that the US government will not be changing course anytime soon and it will be largely down to the politicians in Europe to determine what happens (and principally Germany within Europe).

US Bullying of Europe and the American Empire

Many Americans (and Europeans) are in denial that the US is an Empire.
But:-
The US has over 900 military bases in over 130 countries stretched across the entire globe (except for China, Russia and India).
It has 11 carrier fleets to control the world's oceans.
It spends over a trillion dollar a years on "National Security", more than all of the other countries in the Rest of the World. In reality this massive spend is Empire Retention and the creation of War.


The Empire that treats Europe as it's colony and most of the rest of the world too. The US has military bases in over 40 of the 52 countries in Africa.
South America is getting a bit miffed with the US though. Except for Colombia, South and Central America is increasingly turning towards China and Russia.

Heaven help a European country if they do something against US wishes. They get a visit from John McCain soon after. See Ukraine December 2013. Also see Bulgaria and Romania - they got a visit in June 2014. Shortly afterwards the project for the South stream pipeline from Russia got cancelled.

The US has now turned its attentions to some other European countries that have dared to show some dissent. See Macedonia, Serbia and Hungary. Russia has decided to reroute Southstream via Turkey and Greece. Its now called Turkstream.
European Gas Supplies - The Options - Russia, Qatar, Iran and Texas http://ian56.blogspot.com/2015/05/eu...s-options.html
There also some escalating battles for control and influence in Argentina, Venezuela, Brazil and Nicaragua - to name a few.
E.G. this
The escalating trade wars between the US & the BRICS over Argentina http://ian56.blogspot.com/2014/09/th...etween-us.html

The Mentality of the Neocons is full spectrum dominance across the entire globe.

They don't want any rivals and they are not looking for any win-win solutions.
China doesn't want war. They are unlikely to have a choice in the matter. In any event China and Russia are preparing for the worst and ramping up their militaries and their transport infrastructure in the expectation that the US will attempt to mount a blockade. See the article above. All of the major projects seem to have a target completion date of early 2019.

Neocon thinking

So now we are at the start of a war between the US and the Neocons on one side and Russia, China (and increasingly most of the rest of the world) on the other.
The US is not ruled by people who think in terms of mutual co-operation and win-win. For them there has to be total capitulation and subservience by everyone else. Whether the US itself or Americans fare better or worse is of no consequence in the scales of relative power. Everyone else in the world is certainly of no consequence.

Paul Wolfowitz in 1992 penned what is known as the Wolfowitz Doctrine. This doctrine is the basis for Washington’s foreign policy. The doctrine states:
“Our first objective is to prevent the re-emergence of a new rival, either on the territory of the former Soviet Union or elsewhere, that poses a threat on the order of that posed formerly by the Soviet Union. This is a dominant consideration underlying the new regional defense strategy and requires that we endeavor to prevent any hostile power from dominating a region whose resources would, under consolidated control, be sufficient to generate global power.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wolfowitz_Doctrine

It is patently clear that the Wolfowitz Doctrine is a complete failure.
While the US busied itself with offshoring jobs for short term Corporate profits and spent over a decade and counting in fighting pointless wars in the Middle East, both China and Russia have grown to become exactly the threat which the Wolfowitz Doctrine said should be prevented.

So what now?

An insight into Neocon thinking - George Friedman of Stratfor
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ablI1v9PXpI

As well as (misguidedly or deliberately deceptively) talking about the US wars of aggression in the Middle East, Friedman talks about the US Empire, Eurasia, and creating division between Germany and Russia to prevent either of them from getting too strong. Friedman neglects to mention China which is now joined at the hip partners with Russia. The Chinese government knows that if Russia goes, they are next on the Neocon hit list.

Of course George Friedman is a complete dumbass. The obvious result of US aggression against Russia was to force China and Russia closer together faster, the formation of a Eurasian alliance in China's "New Silk Road", the increasing co-operation of the BRICS, the accelerating momentum of the rest of the world towards the Chinese/BRICS sphere of influence and away from the US (look at South America and AAIB), the financial bankruptcy of the US and the hastening of the end of the American Empire.

But the cluster**** Neocons never could think further than the end of their noses - or what it looked like from the other side of the fence.
Or that other countries or people might not share Leo Strauss or Cecil Rhodes' world vision.
Or that mutual co-operation might be a better option now that the project for US World Empire has quite clearly failed.

Geopolitics - US, China and Russia previous main articles

China's medium term plans are to replace the US Dollar as Reserve Currency by forming a coalition with the BRICS

http://ian56.blogspot.com/2014/12/ch...o-replace.html

The greatest threat to US National Security is the replacement of the US $ with a new Global Reserve Currency.

The details of the over 100 non US Dollar trade deals with over 30 countries and other Chinese and BRICS actions towards replacing the US Dollar as the Global Reserve Currency taken over the last 4 years

http://ian56.blogspot.com/2012/02/th...-national.html

Diplomatic disaster: U.S. humiliated by allies’ rush to join China’s new AAIB bank

http://ian56.blogspot.com/2015/03/re...in-europe.html

Geopolitics and the future over the next 20 to 50 years - The US, EU, China and Russia

http://ian56.blogspot.com/2014/03/ge...ext-20-to.html

China & Russia's actions to combat the future US economic blockade that China and Russia are both expecting.

http://ian56.blogspot.com/2014/12/ch...future-us.html

Why the US Declared War on Russia

http://ian56.blogspot.com/2015/03/wh...on-russia.html

The conflict in Ukraine and with Russia (the short version) and a flavor of Neocon thinking.
http://ian56.blogspot.com/2015/05/th...th-russia.html

References
Vietnam agreed that China held Sovereignty over the Spratly Islands in 1958
http://www.spratlys.org/collection/c...m/vietnam1.htm

The Philippines does not appear to have any valid claim on this area
Philippine Republic's territory is well defined by treaties.
Philippine Treaty Limits

https://www.academia.edu/3015999/PHI...ENT_CONFORMITY

The claim on the Spratly Islands and reefs is subject to international maritime law and the rival claims of China, Malaysia and Brunei.

The US will be seeking that no agreement is reached over ownership between the above three countries.

http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2015/05/...ussia-and.html


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Default 06-02-2015, 08:09 PM

Summary

This is a bit of a long read, but for all the many silent lurkers here who are interested in spreading knowledge about geo-politics I encourage you to email this to your friends or share on facebook, twitter etc.

Anyway here's the basic summary of some of the key points.

- Russia and China are not interested in creating empires or grabbing people's lands.

- China fears being blockaded by the US in the future as happened to Japan just before WW2 with Japan being metaphorically strangled by the US.

So to prevent this China is investing in transport links across Asia to Europe and elsewhere.

It is also making sure that the South China sea becomes a Chinese-administered zone so that it cannot be blockaded by the US, i.e. this is fundamentally a defensive measure against a highly aggressive USA which has invaded Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya and sponsoring terrorism in Syria.

- The neo-cons don't want to share power, they want an American-dominated planet and they are furious with Russia and China.


@Toramana @asad71


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Default 06-03-2015, 09:42 PM

Nice article. Thanks, Bengal_Tiger for sharing.
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